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vsa with Malcolm

  • #18,401
  • Apr 11, 2011 4:13am Apr 11, 2011 4:13am
Quoting malcolmb14
the 1320 to 1330 is a critical area as you can see form this monthly chart.

As you can see last month was a rather nice high volume test.... almost a shake out of the markets. That candle should lead to 1405 at least . I am MUCH happier buying es even intraday.

Attachment
Cheers i wasn't looking at the monthly chart!

to anyone whos watching things right now, we look like we could have a test developing on the EU 15 mins.
Im only looking at longs for the time being.
  • #18,402
  • Apr 11, 2011 4:39am Apr 11, 2011 4:39am
Went long at the break of the test candle marked with green line.

Chart is 15 min EU, and test was on most recent 15 min trigger level.

Comments and critique appreciated.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #18,403
  • Apr 11, 2011 5:09am Apr 11, 2011 5:09am
Quoting NaughtyPip
Went long at the break of the test candle marked with green line.

Chart is 15 min EU, and test was on most recent 15 min trigger level.

Comments and critique appreciated.

hey Man, firstly SNAP, i took the trade aswell!!

Im out now, i didnt like the sluggish upmove and the supply hitting in the last 15 min bar.

(i got caught in something similar last week, the seems to be little demand on the up bars)

I reckon we could see a little more action in the US session, but this day may just be a no supply downday on the daily chart after the widespread up on friday.

I noticed your using triggers, look at yestoday (well friday), around 20;45 GMT, theres a wide spread up with high volume, closing in the well off the high.....
That could be a good trigger number!
  • #18,404
  • Apr 11, 2011 5:13am Apr 11, 2011 5:13am
Awesome trading today, I've made 1,500 pips already and its not even lunchtime. How is everyone else doing?
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #18,405
  • Apr 11, 2011 5:16am Apr 11, 2011 5:16am
SV with ST?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #18,406
  • Apr 11, 2011 5:22am Apr 11, 2011 5:22am
Quoting Steve Gill
Awesome trading today, I've made 1,500 pips already and its not even lunchtime. How is everyone else doing?
Wrong thread mate

Do i detect a hint of sarcasm?

EU is a money loser today. Simple as. GU is moving nicely but haven't personally seen a decent entry on it.
  • #18,407
  • Apr 11, 2011 5:23am Apr 11, 2011 5:23am
Quoting Steve Gill
Awesome trading today, I've made 1,500 pips already and its not even lunchtime. How is everyone else doing?
Screw you MR Gill !!

Are you sure you not spending to much time in that Euro thread.......! cause as we all know the people in there earn millions.....even when there completly wrong!
  • #18,408
  • Apr 11, 2011 5:27am Apr 11, 2011 5:27am
Sorry guys just thought I'd inject a bit of humour into an otherwise quiet day

For me, today is WAY too risky for trading. I'm waiting to see what today brings, before placing a trade. Longs may be the order of the day based on background but we could easily see a shakeout first.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #18,409
  • Apr 11, 2011 5:28am Apr 11, 2011 5:28am
Quoting Tea_trader
hey Man, firstly SNAP, i took the trade aswell!!

Im out now, i didnt like the sluggish upmove and the supply hitting in the last 15 min bar.

(i got caught in something similar last week, the seems to be little demand on the up bars)

I reckon we could see a little more action in the US session, but this day may just be a no supply downday on the daily chart after the widespread up on friday.

I noticed your using triggers, look at yestoday (well friday), around 20;45 GMT, theres a wide spread up with high volume, closing in the well off the...
Hey TT yea that Friday trigger lines up with todays trigger too, so will look for a reaction in this area.
  • #18,410
  • Apr 11, 2011 6:22am Apr 11, 2011 6:22am
Quoting Steve Gill
Awesome trading today, I've made 1,500 pips already and its not even lunchtime. How is everyone else doing?
Only 1,500? Let me grab my calculator... let's see 5 carry the 4 mutliplied by the square root of pi divided by the circumference of the eifel tower = ???

Nope I checked the math and you made exactly 1,500 more pips than I did today. A handful of speeches today and lethargic PA not even worth the effort to look for a trade thus far.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #18,411
  • Apr 11, 2011 7:06am Apr 11, 2011 7:06am
Quoting NaughtyPip
Went long at the break of the test candle marked with green line.

Chart is 15 min EU, and test was on most recent 15 min trigger level.

Comments and critique appreciated.

The one thing I have found in my trading and I am actually going to look back and see if this is the case is that tests of triggers tend to be more successful after price has moved away some from the trigger bar before testing. I have noted other examples like the one you posted where we never moved away at all before printing a test bar and in turn the trade was never very successful. Also the shear volume and spread of the test bar is a bit odd... yes the volume was lower than the previous 2 bars but relative to previous volumes it was still quite high.

Interesting... something to investigate further.

Edit... also note how flat and limp the hull is... indicative of a rangy market.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #18,412
  • Apr 11, 2011 7:48am Apr 11, 2011 7:48am
Hi guys,

I was waiting for EU to breakout from range marked more or less by today's IBH and IBL. Trigger level was a bit above IBL and was derived from three bars one the left with almost the same, relatively high volume.

Finally trigger level was breached but the market stopped at IBL and formed weak up-move with ND and after that TEST.

I think that the best, safe entry, would be on the breakout of ND low and aggresive entry on the breakout of TEST bar low.

What do you guys think about this set-up and which option of entry would you choose if any?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trade what you see, not what you expect. BE LIKE WATER MY FRIEND.
  • #18,413
  • Apr 11, 2011 7:51am Apr 11, 2011 7:51am
Quoting Baniu
Hi guys,

I was waiting for EU to breakout from range marked more or less by today's IBH and IBL. Trigger level was a bit above IBL and was derived from three bars one the left with almost the same, relatively high volume.

Finally trigger level was breached but the market stopped at IBL and formed weak up-move with ND and after that TEST.

I think that the best, safe entry, would be on the breakout of ND low and aggresive entry on the breakout of TEST bar low.

What do you guys think about this set-up and which option of entry would you choose...
From which bar was your trigger derived?

Nevermind... it is from Friday? Correct?
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #18,414
  • Apr 11, 2011 7:51am Apr 11, 2011 7:51am
Quoting Baniu
Hi guys,

I was waiting for EU to breakout from range marked more or less by today's IBH and IBL. Trigger level was a bit above IBL and was derived from three bars one the left with almost the same, relatively high volume.

Finally trigger level was breached but the market stopped at IBL and formed weak up-move with ND and after that TEST.

I think that the best, safe entry, would be on the breakout of ND low and...
I had to go out for a while so was just looking over the charts when I came back, I was just looking at this potential set up too. The spread of the ND may be a little wide but it is still within the spread of the last bar so I reckon it's good. The volume is very low too. Did you trade it?
  • #18,415
  • Apr 11, 2011 7:55am Apr 11, 2011 7:55am
Hi,

Is there an other broker than FxPro which is closing at the right time so that no bar is created for Sundays? I've tried to install FxPro, but the proxy configuration doesn't work.

Daniel
  • #18,416
  • Apr 11, 2011 8:15am Apr 11, 2011 8:15am
Quoting KinsaleForex
I had to go out for a while so was just looking over the charts when I came back, I was just looking at this potential set up too. The spread of the ND may be a little wide but it is still within the spread of the last bar so I reckon it's good. The volume is very low too. Did you trade it?
Yes, the volume on ND was really low. I was waiting for it but when and ND and TEST were printed I was away peacefully eating my lunch so I have missed it. This is a huge drawback of 5min charts trading- you have to be glued to the monitor all the time .

Quoting pres78
From which bar was your trigger derived?

Nevermind... it is from Friday? Correct?
Bars are marked with blue rectangle, these are of course bars from today.
Trade what you see, not what you expect. BE LIKE WATER MY FRIEND.
  • #18,417
  • Apr 11, 2011 8:24am Apr 11, 2011 8:24am
Quoting Baniu
Bars are marked with blue rectangle, these are of course bars from today.
Sorry... still asleep today
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #18,418
  • Apr 11, 2011 8:34am Apr 11, 2011 8:34am
Dear Mal,

Fist of all respect for your “6th sense” (of course it’s all in the volume chart). Your calls are remarkable spot on. Unfortunately I was extremely busy two weeks ago – we could have had some beers in Dubai.

Well, you detected strong underlying support/background buying of the Euro from the volumes. I know it is a VSA thread but do you allow that I may add my 2 cents on background info on this, since it gives some insight into the reasons?

Generally Euro has been bought due to QEII and a possible QEIII, we all know. But there additionally there is currently a historical “Ice Age” in the relationship between the US and Saudi Arabia going on . However, with limited (I mean selective) western and middle east media participation!!!

As we know the civil uproar in Egypt started beginning of February. When it came to the demand of the crowd to kick Mubarak’s butt the Obama supported liberalization – however King Faisal (Saudi) supported Mubarak strongly. This mounted into the telephone conversation between Obama and King Faisal (Saudi) on the 10th of Feb. in which King Faisal exploded in anger (in an unprecedented way) and suffered a kind of hard attack. (Some official Middle East Media reported the death of King Faisal – just to have to announce his resurrection shortly after ). A diplomatic mission send instantly on the next days from US to King Faisal has been send home literally on the doorsteps of King Faisal’s palace. Promptly, King Faisal instructed comprehensively his various ministers & departments. As a result already on the next days Saudi diplomats departed to Russia, China and other strategic Countries for talks about the possibility to extend their relationships.

This degree of friction has no example in the 70+ years relationship between US and Saudi King Family which always has been led by the long term thinking – in particular the security interests of the Saudi King Family.

Now, last week on Wednesday, when Robert Gates visited Riad to polish the relationship, icy winds blow into his face (in the middle of the hot desert). He got told that Saudi may buy their defence systems somewhere else.
In detail King Faisal said “…since the Obama Admin. does not consider in their decisions the security interests of KSA anymore he (King Faisal) feels free to make any decision necessary that serves our (KSA) interests…”

Now, looking into the charts, the last 1000+pip run without significant retrace started on Feb 14th – three days after the Feb 10 issue mentioned above.

Enough on details, I want to keep it short but beside QEII or QEIII – there is massive dollar diversification in the middle east going on.
There are three kind of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.
  • #18,419
  • Apr 11, 2011 8:39am Apr 11, 2011 8:39am
With regard to middle east dollar diversification.

Did someone notice in the past 2-3 month more than usual movement in the pre-Frankfurt opening hour (often up)? The pre-Frankfurt opening hour is naturally very dull – but it’s right in the morning in Riad and Dubai.

And in the past days an unusual number of up moves of the Euro during Asia?

Well in the last 1-2 weeks the profis in Asia figured out that the Arabs just where buying into the usual little Asian retrace. (or better said Asians where handing to the Arabs on an silver plate a nicely cheap Euro ready to be bought into).

Consequently, Tokyo/HK turned the plate and kicked off the run instead to watch the others to take the cake.
There are three kind of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.
  • #18,420
  • Apr 11, 2011 8:40am Apr 11, 2011 8:40am
Very slow news day and the markets are reflecting this. There is a small trade I am playing on the gbpchf though. My chart is a 30 min.
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