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How to survive in forex? Help please!

  • #61
  • Apr 9, 2011 1:23am Apr 9, 2011 1:23am
its all BS trading is easy

stop using stop loses

dont have profit targets

dont use indicators

be nimble, be flexible

the only important thing in forex is the USD
if you know what its doing you know how to trade
GBP EURO AUD all trade against USD if the USDX is down they will be UP
CHF CAD JPY generally trade inverse to ERO GBP AUD etc
if one is out of wack is not the USD its the policy in the Central Bank of that country.

people lose because they cant hold a losing trade. if you go negative but are on the right side of the trend, rescue, if you are against hedge.

never lose a pip, a losing is bad,


its NOT ALL TECHNICAL and ITS NOT ALL FUNDAMENTALS, its BOTH.
see whats going on in the news.

right now ill give you the holy grail

USD weakness is the game. bet against the dollar
if the dollar strengthens be with the dollar, that is all you need to know.


1000 acount, 600 dollar in 3 days.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #62
  • Apr 9, 2011 2:06am Apr 9, 2011 2:06am
Quoting the redlion
its...
I like your approach. However, I think you still need a stop loss. Cause you can't always be right with your interpretations of what is going on in the world. Also what you mentioned is just one of the many relationships in the world. Commodities, indexes, yield curves,... can also hint you to what is going on.
If you have a technical edge and a fundamental edge tied up with some reasonable money management, you gonna be unstoppable.
  • #63
  • Apr 9, 2011 2:43am Apr 9, 2011 2:43am
Quoting Custos
I like your approach. However, I think you still need a stop loss. Cause you can't always be right with your interpretations of what is going on in the world. Also what you mentioned is just one of the many relationships in the world. Commodities, indexes, yield curves,... can also hint you to what is going on.
If you have a technical edge and a fundamental edge tied up with some reasonable money management, you gonna be unstoppable.
correct. oil, gold commodities, interest rates, CB policies and announcements
watch for interventions,

look at GDP, unemployement, manufactoring data, thats all fundamentals.

when you look at technicals open a daily of all the majors and check what tHE USD is doing in what direcion is trading.

no stop lossess dealers hunt for these.
DEFINATELY NO STOP LOSSESS

if in trouble hold your balls, and rescue trades
if you completely when the wrong way (as long as you go the way of the USD) trust me its hard to do.

then hedge, if you sold... lets say CAD and the USD reversed and appreciated. now USD/CAD is rising not falling( am talking about reversals not corrections, corrections simply rescue and hold your balls it will go into profit soon enough or close the computer and do something else, it will get in the green eventually.... sounds radical but the TREND IS YOUR FRIEND your FEAR IS YOUR ENEMY)

these is why if you sold USD/CAD and it reversed, then AUD/USD should go the other way meaning
USD/CAD is now rising AUD/USD should now be falling. calculate the average and HEDGE

never go all in at one time
send a scout,

initial scout ie 1 lot to feel the market, if scout in trouble rescue 2 lots
if in the money press the attack 2 lots, feel the price movement as the waves retrace 3 lots,
then price advances further than last time, never moves in a straght line for every wave there is a counter wave

SNOWBALL YOUR WAY in and reduce exposure on your over nights, maintain your poise maintain your position.

NEVER LOSE A PIP, losing is bad.


IF REVERSAL then simply HEDGE, sell EURO/USD or AUD/USD as it has negative correlation (meaning inverse movement)


stop losses are the best way to lose money
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #64
  • Apr 9, 2011 2:48am Apr 9, 2011 2:48am
Quoting the redlion
correct. oil, gold commodities, interest rates, CB policies and announcements
watch for interventions,

look at GDP, unemployement, manufactoring data, thats...
well, I have a different opinion on stop losses, but trading would be boring or non-existent, if we all have the same thoughts on strategies.
  • #65
  • Apr 9, 2011 2:55am Apr 9, 2011 2:55am
let me ask you a question.

what do you need a stop loss for?

you are letting your liquidity provider know your plan and as you position your sitting duck level away from perssived volatility many traders are doing the same. the broker will hunt your levels and price will follow the trend.

try to never lose a pip, fight tooth and nail for break even

losing 10 dollars today and 4 tomorrow

is still 14 just slower
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #66
  • Apr 9, 2011 3:10am Apr 9, 2011 3:10am
Quoting the redlion
let me ask you a question.

what do you need a stop loss for?

you are letting your liquidity provider know your plan and as you position your sitting duck level away from perssived volatility many traders are doing the same. the broker will hunt your levels and price will follow the trend.

try to never lose a pip, fight tooth and nail for break even

losing 10 dollars today and 4 tomorrow

is still 14 just slower
I need a stop loss to be able to close out my position in case my bet is a loser. If I try hedging each position then my account liquidity will dry up fast. Not to mention the costs I pay for opening a new position to hedge my old one.

My liquidity provider couldn't care less about my positions. If you have a normal reliable broker, they will not hunt your stops. It goes against their own interest to hunt your stops, cause if they deplete your account, they won't get commissions from your trades anymore. Of course if you don't pay your broker in terms of commissions then they might have an incentive to hunt stops.

Obviously our strategies differ from each other, I don't try to be right each time. I just bet continuously and let my edge play itself out over time. With some strategies I only have a 20% win-rate, but I still increase my account over time...by employing stop-losses.

I see trading a bit like black jack or poker, so that is why it is my belief that one needs to control risk.
  • #67
  • Apr 9, 2011 3:16am Apr 9, 2011 3:16am
like you said each has its own strategies. However i learned this from a interbank, cetral bank of singapore trader, FTI

look up technical analysis fallacy, its an eye opener, granted my style is a little different than his however, the volatility is such that one day can have hundred or more net pip movement, price comes in waves at you, but if you can feel the direction of price. and rescue when in trouble, you dont need a stop loss, if youre actively managing your positions,


when i used to use them, often the price would hit my stop loss just to resume in the direction of the trend.

but if youre profitable its really all that matters, and i wish you happy trading and many pips to you
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #68
  • Apr 9, 2011 3:17am Apr 9, 2011 3:17am
Quoting the redlion

try to never lose a pip, fight tooth and nail for break even
let me warn you, that is a dangerous mindset.

If you can't let go of losers, you will one day destroy your account. Of course if you hedge it then it won't happen, but if one day you don't hedge anymore and really fight for b/e then you will lose big time.

Also not to forget the rollover fees. Let's say you hedge a position for a few months and both pairs have negative rollover, then you need to achieve more pips to cover the negative rollover charges.
  • #69
  • Apr 9, 2011 3:23am Apr 9, 2011 3:23am
Quoting the redlion
like you said each has its own strategies. However i learned this from a interbank, cetral bank of singapore trader, FTI

look up technical analysis fallacy, its an eye opener, granted my style is a little different than his however, the volatility is such that one...
thanks for the thread recommendation.

Well, my strategies are based on backtests on 10,000 trades. So it includes changes in volatility. Obviously I am trading to get a better life-style. If I needed to actively manage my positions each and every day, then that would not contribute to a better life-style. I normally leave my trades alone and just let them work themselves out.

My real energy goes into developing strategies and understanding the market.

anyways, just wanted to clarify myself a bit.
  • #70
  • Apr 9, 2011 3:24am Apr 9, 2011 3:24am
i actively managage my trades and when i position trade i do a little different.

i attack price direction when actively manage and i reduce my exposure by scaling out, but maintain postion with a scout 5mini lots usually.

gives me breathing room and peace of mine to resume next day, as im in the money far enough. however


i use 1500 working USD and any profit above i usually bank and either fund other outside investments or hold in cash.


and i do have a never lose a pip mentality, i sweat bullets if im ill timed in a correction but by rescuing the trade, and maintaing poise as well as hedging, i find it highly profitable.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #71
  • Apr 9, 2011 3:26am Apr 9, 2011 3:26am
Quoting the redlion
i actively managage my trades and when i position trade i do a little different.

i attack price direction when actively manage and i reduce my exposure by scaling out, but maintain postion with a scout 5mini lots usually.

gives me breathing room and peace of mine to resume next day, as im in the money far enough. however


i use 1500 working USD and any profit above i usually bank and either fund other outside investments or hold in cash.


and i do have a never lose...
yes, as long as it makes you money, you are doing great! Making money is all that matters when trading.
  • #72
  • Apr 9, 2011 3:27am Apr 9, 2011 3:27am
i find trading fun and facinating, but i do see where youre coming from

you trade the trend and market structure,


then i agree you DO need a stop loss as you dont actively manage your positions price can turn on you and wipe you out.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #73
  • Apr 9, 2011 3:30am Apr 9, 2011 3:30am
Quoting the redlion
i find trading fun and facinating, but i do see where youre coming from

you trade the trend and market structure,


then i agree you DO need a stop loss as you dont actively manage your positions price can turn on you and wipe you out.
yeah, it really depends on the approach.
  • #74
  • Apr 9, 2011 1:34pm Apr 9, 2011 1:34pm
Quoting the redlion
the only important thing in forex is the USD
if you know what its doing you know how to trade
GBP EURO AUD all trade against USD if the USDX is down they will be UP
CHF CAD JPY generally trade inverse to ERO GBP AUD etc
if one is out of wack is not the USD its the policy in the Central Bank of that country.
This is shrewd analysis. I run a currency strength indy (see screenshot) which bears much of this out. Lines moving in the same direction denote correlated currencies. The USD decline is apparent in both the daily and weekly plots.

I find it hard to believe that genuine STP br0kers stop-hunt tiny individual retail traders. I think it's more likely that the latter place their SLs in similar (and obvious) areas, and they get swept away collectively by heavyweights in their continual quest for liquidity.

Even if you don't use a formal SL, without some kind of loss exit strategy, your risk is potentially unlimited. Unless your forecasting accuracy is 100%, it becomes a question of how much are drawdown you're willing to accept on the occasions that you're wrong. If you've made 60% return in 3 days, then I suspect you're using high leverage, and consequently it wouldn't take much of a move against you to margin-call your account. IMO there is no return in forex without approximately commensurate risk; the difference between the two is your edge.

I've never understood why people see benefit in hedging. Hedging in the same pair is a more costly equivalent to simply being out of the market, while (given that triangular equilibrium must be maintained) hedging XXXYYY against YYYZZZ is effectively the same as trading XXXZZZ. Of course I'm talking spot forex, not options trading.

All of the above assumes that I've understood you correctly; if not, then I apologize. I'm aware of FTI's TA fallacy thread, but I haven't read more than the first few pages, and that was many months ago.
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  • #75
  • Apr 9, 2011 10:45pm Apr 9, 2011 10:45pm
you see the way i limit my exposure is waves of attacks,

im not all in with high leverage. i snowball my position

i initiate a scout position with minimal leverage to feel the market and continue to press my attack as i feel the strength or movement of price.

then on i scale out and maintain a scout open to minimize my overnight exposure.

hedging is used if the market is moving against me. i will fight tooth and nail to get even. but my experience is if im moving with the dollar its hard to be on the wrong side.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #76
  • Apr 10, 2011 5:00am Apr 10, 2011 5:00am
Quoting hanover
Apparently you're saying that I have a big ego, but it's been reduced a little due to your help?

If so........ then I don't know how to respond to that, other than to apologize if I've come across that way. I've never claimed to be right about anything; only that I'm a slave to what I see as being the infallibility of math. In whatever ways math can be shown to be flawed, or at least inapplicable, my whole view of MM (and many other things forex) fall along with it.

And if not....... well, you've completely lost me...... yet again. ...
well the ego thing was related to the hedging thread a while back as I warned you of the dangers of a big ego. But if you don't feel I had any impact on your ego then who am I to say that I did. I'm fine with admitting I was wrong. I think it was around the time that you told me you would leave the forum board if I showed you something or whatever.
And I told you I wouldn't let you off that easy.... something to that effect.

As far as quant and discretionary...discretionary and quant... if there was a term used to describe it they would have a picture of a "redlion" nearby.
  • #77
  • Apr 10, 2011 6:24pm Apr 10, 2011 6:24pm
Quoting the redlion
correct. oil, gold commodities, interest rates, CB policies and announcements
watch for interventions,

look at GDP, unemployement, manufactoring data, thats...
Trading without stop loss is a very risky business, the stoploss is your risk,
if you dont have one, your risk is technically unlimited,
you can loose more than you have in your acount,
if you have a broker that is stop hunting you,
it's better to change broker than expose your self to such an extrem risk.
don't think of revenge because you can never get on top of them,
there are more tricks they can do than stop hunting,
example, he could send a 1000 pip spike when your'e in without a stop,
then what? are you still not getting out?
I would pee my pants
there are some good brokers out there
who doesn't stop hunt you.
my advice is change broker
and never trade without a stop loss
if you do, thats a sure way to blow your acount
Bulls are stupid Animals!especially when Im short!
  • #78
  • Apr 10, 2011 6:51pm Apr 10, 2011 6:51pm
thanks for the advice but i belive youre wrong

ure just regurgitating the perpetual myth of forex.

STOP LOSS are dangerous i would ask you to reconsider your approach
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #79
  • Apr 11, 2011 4:03am Apr 11, 2011 4:03am
Quoting the redlion
thanks for the advice but i belive youre wrong

ure just regurgitating the perpetual myth of forex.

STOP LOSS are dangerous i would ask you to reconsider your approach
I would have given up by now if I didn't use a SL - but I'm still to become a profitable trader.
  • #80
  • Apr 11, 2011 7:10am Apr 11, 2011 7:10am
Quoting nAVIN2007
very good advise
It's up to you. Everyone should find his own way. this is the same like. How did you learn how to walk . . . You did along and in your unique way.
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