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  • #461
  • Apr 8, 2011 6:45pm Apr 8, 2011 6:45pm
Quoting forexcompoun
Hi all, please exit this short @ 1.0420 then buy (actual support is 1.0415) till 1.0560 SL 70pips. Very typical of Thursdays- breakouts! Please we would no longer sell (exit our long) frm 1.052x the new level for going short would be about 10-20pips higher than 1.0560 Enjoy the ride. Meshach
And YES! it played out just like I said!! Thursdays are such exciting days to trade the currency markets. You are nearly always guaranteed of having a breakout.
Quite amazingly, as a greenhorn in this market many years ago, Thursdays happened to be the ONLY day of the week that my "system" doesn't work. It took me about 4 years to realize that ALL overbought/oversold systems of trading(that I know of) (or oscillator based system of trading) FAIL whenever there is a breakout. Now the realization of this truth makes me ultra easy money every Thursday.

Congrats to all those that took trades on the live account based on this call. Sometimes the BEST things of life come FREE.
Have a lovely weekend.
Meshach.
  • #462
  • Apr 9, 2011 12:49am Apr 9, 2011 12:49am
Quoting FX-Petra
Since this is going to be my last trade on this pair until we get a good retrace, I added 1 more short @ 0545 for a total of 3 lots. Moving all stops to 1.0625, targeting TP near the old high of 0260. The up move is probably not over, but the RR is good on this trade. If it hits, family vacation will be upgraded from Disneyland to Paris!!!

Regards,

ps-- if it misses, downgrade vaction to Florida panhandle.... but that still a pretty good spot!!
you made my day, thank you
  • #463
  • Apr 9, 2011 1:54am Apr 9, 2011 1:54am
Well I must say even I am bullish on AUD I do not trust this "last minute buy" with a weekly close outside the trend channel.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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To resume this breakout I would like to see price remaining outside the channel by end of next week or we may have a fakey. If that is the case I would wait to buy on dips as per chart (massive supply zone).
Lets see next week if anybody starts to pay attention regarding the bad news out of the Euro zone as this will directly influence the AUD.

Cheers
  • #464
  • Apr 9, 2011 6:26pm Apr 9, 2011 6:26pm
Assuming my math is correct, the relative strength of the majors since the last bottom on March 16th to April 8th is:
NZD 857
AUD 719
EUR 230
CAD 134
GBP 106
USD -185
CHF -404
JPN-1240 (Earthquake?)
Best performers from 3/16 to 4/8:
GBP/JPY +1635
EUR/JPY +1619
GBP/NZD -1541
AUD/JPY +1447
NZD/JPY +1158
AUD/CHF +893
AUD/USD +823
Worst performer:
AUD/NZD +42
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
  • #465
  • Apr 9, 2011 6:37pm Apr 9, 2011 6:37pm
For those who think AUD/USD has hit a glass ceiling, take a look at the monthly chart for AUD/JPY. It would have to go up another 650 pips to reach its previous high. If it does, it should drag AUD/USD up about another 300 pips.
Another way to look at it, AUD/JPY is up 1477 while AUD/USD is up only 823.
Here's wishing everyone a happy gap up on Sunday's opening (unless you are short). http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
  • #466
  • Apr 10, 2011 5:02am Apr 10, 2011 5:02am
just my two cents,

But i personally think the aus should be valued around 1.10-1.30 as the usd is finished. Major countries are shying away and the usd can only really go one way. And that will only make the aussie stronger.

Happy pips
  • #467
  • Edited 6:47am Apr 10, 2011 5:36am | Edited 6:47am
AUD monthly - some interesting fib extensions both ends of the previous long term bull PA, oversold stopped at the 123.6 fib, will overbought now also stop at the reverse side 123.6 fib? (given that this market rather likes symmetry).

Also note the AUD/JPY chart has strong resistance on the 200 ema monthly chart here.
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Attached Image
  • #468
  • Apr 10, 2011 6:46am Apr 10, 2011 6:46am
Wicks on the S&P Daily. Is the party over? Or just a blip on the radar screen?

And oh look, what's that just above........ another 123.6 fib, how very interesting. That hammer on the monthly doesn't look very bull friendly.

Are the flying pigs about to come home to roost?
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Attached Image
  • #469
  • Apr 10, 2011 7:43am Apr 10, 2011 7:43am
Quoting ivanovic01
just my two cents,

But i personally think the aus should be valued around 1.10-1.30 as the usd is finished. Major countries are shying away and the usd can only really go one way. And that will only make the aussie stronger.

Happy pips
Isn't that what they said about the Euro last year ?

  • #470
  • Edited 5:52pm Apr 10, 2011 5:04pm | Edited 5:52pm
Quoting ivanovic01
just my two cents,

But i personally think the aus should be valued around 1.10-1.30 as the usd is finished. Major countries are shying away and the usd can only really go one way. And that will only make the aussie stronger.

Happy pips
One of my favorite indicator is to do the opposite when evreybody thinks that the AUD is going to the moon without looking back. That backed up by the taxi driver, newspapers and the school kids.

So lets the week begin!

Cheers
  • #471
  • Apr 10, 2011 5:38pm Apr 10, 2011 5:38pm
As the trading opened this Sunday, I went long on AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, and EUR/USD.
Fundamentally, Japan still has not solved its nuke problem. I expect Japan to print a lot more Yen to pay for the earthquake and tsunami.
Why the EUR is going up against USD, I have not a clue.
The US solved its budget crisis with about a 40 billion $ cut in spending. This is a drop in the Trillion$ + budget; and much of the spending cut is imaginary, however.
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
  • #472
  • Apr 10, 2011 5:47pm Apr 10, 2011 5:47pm
Quoting jerrycollie
As the trading opened this Sunday, I went long on AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, and EUR/USD.
Fundamentally, Japan still has not solved its nuke problem. I expect Japan to print a lot more Yen to pay for the earthquake and tsunami.
Why the EUR is going up against USD, I have not a clue.
The US solved its budget crisis with about a 40 billion $ cut in spending. This is a drop in the Trillion$ + budget; and much of the spending cut is imaginary, however.
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
I can assure you that you would loose money on both AU and EU. Pls re-assess your positions. Thanks. Meshach
  • #473
  • Apr 10, 2011 5:58pm Apr 10, 2011 5:58pm
Quoting forexcompoun
I can assure you that you would loose money on both AU and EU. Pls re-assess your positions. Thanks. Meshach
At best, I take predictions with a grain of salt. At worse, I just sneeze at them. I must say, though, that yours was correct last week.

I have been waiting for AUD to come down for some time now. The trouble is, bad news just has had no or little effect on this pair lately while neutral or good news naturally encouraged more buying. Hence, I am not quite sure what will the not so rosy news from the Chinese over the weekend and the latest good news, or so rumoured, from Lybia will do. (Edit: Add the bad numbers from the EU as well)

Last week you were looking to short from here. Would you mind sharing your TP with the rest of us?
  • #474
  • Edited 7:48pm Apr 10, 2011 7:42pm | Edited 7:48pm
Quoting mags01
At best, I take predictions with a grain of salt. At worse, I just sneeze at them. I must say, though, that yours was correct last week.

I have been waiting for AUD to come down for some time now. The trouble is, bad news just has had no or little effect on this pair lately while neutral or good news naturally encouraged more buying. Hence, I am not quite sure what will the not so rosy news from the Chinese over the weekend and the latest good news, or so rumoured, from Lybia will do. (Edit: Add the bad numbers from the EU as well)

Last week you...
Mags01,
I really don't know who you are but I can say for certain that you are soft spoken. For this reason, I'll share my chart with those on this thread all through this week. Please note that I can do nothing by myself. Time and again I have stated expressly that my abilities are God given.

I hope its okay to limit ourselves to just 1hr and 4hr charts? If there are more charts we would like to see please let me know.
I'll post the most recent charts pretty soon.

Thanks,
Meshach.
  • #475
  • Apr 10, 2011 7:56pm Apr 10, 2011 7:56pm
Hourly and 4 hourly charts would be lovely. Many thanks.
  • #476
  • Apr 10, 2011 8:19pm Apr 10, 2011 8:19pm
Okay, here's the 1hour chart.
Price is presently testing the horizontal support at 1.0543 and this happens to be "almost" in confluence with a 3rd touch of the demand trend line. We are in a probable reversal zone (PRZ) but we need to await the close of the present 1hr candle to know if we get a trend line break or a bounce off of the demand trend line.

Let's wait for paint to dry or wait for mud to settle.
Meshach.
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  • #477
  • Apr 10, 2011 8:21pm Apr 10, 2011 8:21pm
h4 audusd
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The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
  • #478
  • Apr 10, 2011 8:56pm Apr 10, 2011 8:56pm
Thanks for the warning Meshach. I will keep tight stops. I do agree at some point we will get a violent reversal. I just cannot see it coming yet; but I will keep my parachute handy. In the meantime, I will try to sniff out a few more pips. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
  • #479
  • Apr 10, 2011 9:04pm Apr 10, 2011 9:04pm
ok, price hit our horizontal support and we get a bullish engulfing formation on 15min tf......
that seems to tell a familiar story .........
and 1hr tf butresses the point even more strongly - a nice bear candle gives birth to a "hairy" monster. This goes a aginst a simple principle of life -"like begets like".

BUY!!
TP 1.0672 SL can be set at your own discretion.

Find charts attached.
Meshach.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #480
  • Apr 10, 2011 9:10pm Apr 10, 2011 9:10pm
Quoting jerrycollie
Thanks for the warning Meshach. I will keep tight stops. I do agree at some point we will get a violent reversal. I just cannot see it coming yet; but I will keep my parachute handy. In the meantime, I will try to sniff out a few more pips. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
Its okay bro. I'm running live commentary now lol
Meshach
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