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"The Logical Trader" - Thread to develop manual trading using insights from this book

  • #101
  • Apr 6, 2011 3:37am Apr 6, 2011 3:37am
Quoting macman
Steve,

Maybe consider a trade for recovery if it goes beyond 300% of ATR(20) ?

This is a starting point for consideration, and may need alteration depending on your chosen time frame

Best of Luck ....
Yes, thanks. I will.

  • #102
  • Apr 6, 2011 4:17am Apr 6, 2011 4:17am
Quoting SteveHopwood
I am going to tempt you. Go to http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...=1#post4523927 and see what you think. It looks like fun...The thread I draw to your attention suggests an alternative, albeit at a very early stage.
Thank you very much! Will definitely have a good look at it. I have come to the conclusion that the biggest barrier to a successful hedge strategy is our own psychological state of mind. Instead of devising and sticking to a predefined plan (Like a military operation) we keep thinking, "WHAT IF". I think you know what I mean.

Quoting macman
...Maybe consider a trade for recovery if it goes beyond 300% of ATR(20) ?...This is a starting point for consideration, and may need alteration depending on your chosen time frame
Great to have you here MACMAN. I do really enjoy reading your posts. They are short and to the point. But more importantly they are a reminder to the rest of us that market upheavals are quite routine and key to long term profit (survival) is sensible trade management.

Kind Regards
  • #103
  • Apr 6, 2011 4:48pm Apr 6, 2011 4:48pm
Quoting macman
Steve,

Maybe consider a trade for recovery if it goes beyond 300% of ATR(20) ?

This is a starting point for consideration, and may need alteration depending on your chosen time frame

Best of Luck ....
It took me a while to work out what best to do with this - I spent my bath today thinking about Rinse and Repeat.

As a starting point, I have added the facility for Logical to add an Atr-based re-entry line when it finds a trade open. The update is in post 1 and the inputs should be obvious.

Given that I now only trade in the direction of my perception of the D1 trend, then the hedging point is obvious - when the trend changes. Recovery is different, so this is a first attempt to identify the end of a retrace against the trend, after which I can add a Recovery trade.

Be aware users that the update removes the Pivot Range alert. I came to the conclusion last week that this is irrelevant and removed it from the version I am using. If you are relying on it, then do not update your Logical version. Do not be confused by the continues presence of the Pivot Range lines; they remain on a just-in-case-I-want-them basis.

Thanks macman. I am deeply grateful for the help you continue to give me.

  • #104
  • Apr 6, 2011 5:18pm Apr 6, 2011 5:18pm
Quoting SteveHopwood
It took me a while to work out what best to do with this - I spent my bath today thinking about Rinse and Repeat.

As a starting point, I have added the facility for Logical to add an Atr-based re-entry line when it finds a trade open. The update is in post 1 and the inputs should be obvious.

Given that I now only trade in the direction of my perception of the D1 trend, then the hedging point is obvious - when the trend changes. Recovery is different, so this is a first attempt to identify the end of a retrace against the trend, after which...
Nice One Macman and Steve,
Love that Atr-based re-entry line.......Will give it a go at the NY Open...This will fit in perfectly since I'm already hedging this bot with MPTM.....

whip
  • #105
  • Apr 6, 2011 5:46pm Apr 6, 2011 5:46pm
Quoting hiredwhip
Nice One Macman and Steve,
Love that Atr-based re-entry line.......Will give it a go at the NY Open...This will fit in perfectly since I'm already hedging this bot with MPTM.....

whip
You will be chuffed to know that I am becoming re-converted to hedging. I lost The Faith for a while.

Knowledge is power. As I learn more, so I understand more, so I am able to apply techniques better.

I reckon I have spent more time on this than I did on my music degree. Bloody good job I am finally getting somewhere, or I would be really pissed off.

  • #106
  • Apr 7, 2011 3:50pm Apr 7, 2011 3:50pm
I forgot to add sell trades to the re-entry line drawing function. Fix in post 1.

  • #107
  • Apr 9, 2011 9:53am Apr 9, 2011 9:53am
A hefty 28% increase in the balance is not as impressive as it sounds. Alpari UK's leverage is 500:1, so trading 0.01 lots on a £100 is badly over-trading. I shall not be increasing the lot size until the balance reaches £2,000, as I reckon 0.01 lots per £1000 is necessary.

Similar cash profits in weeks to come will gradually become less and less impressive compared to the balance. Still, the idea is to refine a manual trading system that I will be happy to go live with.

In a way, I already have. My live TOB account as gazillions of pips in the hole, so I have been doing some protective hedging, taking hedge trades when my system here indicated a trigge. I made a shed-load of profit that way.

I am gradually refining a system:

 

  1. the setup is a trend indication by the D1 Rsi(20):

    1. >55: trend is up
    2. <45 trend is down
    3. in between, market is ranging so sit out

  2. trigger is a good A signal from the signals ea
  3. take profit is 30 pips, although I vary this in light of nearby s/r and 'big' numbers
  4. close a trade manually if it is in profit and the market has stalled for a few hours. The stall will break eventually and there is no guarantee it will break in my favour, even though I am trading with my perception of the D1 trend. I might try gutsing out a few stalls just to see what happens
  5. dealing with losers. I have two strategies, depending on whether the adverse move is a retrace or a trend change:

    1. retrace: the signals ea draws a Recovery re-entry line at Atr * 3 as suggested by macman. Re-enter with a Recovery trade when there is a new A trigger in the direction of the trend.
    2. possible trend change when Rsi retreats inside the ranging zone: hedge at equal lot size and wait for the market to resume trending again; when it does, add to the hedge if the trend has changed or add to the original position if the trend resumes,and look to get out at breakeven. Both of these actions only when there is a clear A trigger.


Still a work in progress, but a good start. It helps that the markets have been moving so strongly of late. Trades attached.

Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Statement.zip   2 KB | 518 downloads
  • #108
  • Edited 3:22pm Apr 9, 2011 1:13pm | Edited 3:22pm
I am not a big board poster but I am trading mainly ACD in the EU & US Session.

Please find attached an ACD indi - may its helpfull. The indi works only properly on the 5M Chart. To adapt the indi to your times - times are all hardcoded - its necessary to edit the source code. An audio alert option for GAD=Good A Down and GAU=Good A up is included - but slows down the indi.

I check the statistical edge of the OR on a monthly basis - it confirms as well if the rigth times are chosen for the OR and the end of trading session - which is relevant for defining the daily numberlines.

My Daily Bias is defined by the attached PDF slides. Rangeday or Breakout day ?

Trenddirection and intensity I estimate by daily ATR, TA and fundamentals.

By the lack of given exit points in Fish's book - for trend days I am using the daily, weekly, monthly pivot lines (S/R) as exit and for range days = Fade days - I use it according to the book.

My A and C Values are calculated like that:

aValue = (0.10 *((ATR10Days +ATR30Days)/2));
cValue = (0.15 *((ATR10Days + ATR30Days)/2));

Very usefull seems the 3DRPRP as SL area.

Unfortunatly my trading plan is in german - so I have to translate - hope my english is not to bad.

Hope it helps and thank you for the thread.

Ines

PS: my old working blogs - not maintained anymore - may you find something usefull for you
http://micro-acd.blogspot.com/
http://fx-ines.blogspot.com/

PSS: It seems not possible to attach file to PM's therefore please use this downloadlink
http://www.4shared.com/file/nL-1cfti/ACD_Basics.html

PSSS: http://www.moneyshow.com/directory/i...A0001031D96BC#
  • #109
  • Apr 9, 2011 1:48pm Apr 9, 2011 1:48pm
Quoting SteveHopwood
so I have been doing some protective hedging, taking hedge trades when my system here indicated a trigge. I made a shed-load of profit that way.
nice work steve, using acd like this to trigger some recovery hedges is I guess in the true spirit of using this type of system.

looking forward to seeing further results from your manual system.

cheers.
  • #110
  • Apr 9, 2011 3:02pm Apr 9, 2011 3:02pm
Hi Traders ,


Mark Fishers book is one of my favorites . However, I always felt the trade entry points were too far from the opening and left alot of pips on the table . I , like alot of you , have made my own adjustments to the method which seem to get into trades sooner allowing for more potential profits. There are still alot of losing trades , but they are "hard " losses and the winners on average are 3 times as large , thus the "edge" .You really need a method you understand , trust and know gives you a statisical edge.

A post by Razzle is the direction I went in that helped :
IIRC, Fischer claims that the statistical edge from the ACD strategy is based entirely on the fact that the high or low for the day occurs much more frequently during the first x minutes after the open, than would be predicted based on random chance.

Perhaps establishing if that was actually true for the forex markets would be a good starting point.


Good Trading ,
EZ
" Master Your Set-Up , Master Yourself "
  • #111
  • Apr 9, 2011 4:00pm Apr 9, 2011 4:00pm
Quoting EZTrades

Perhaps establishing if that was actually true for the forex markets would be a good starting point.


Good Trading ,
EZ
At the moment I just have an old excel file of 2010 available - but I will it update for the first quarter of this year and post it again.

regards
ines

http://www.4shared.com/file/PnbOGD_p...stischer_.html
  • #112
  • Apr 9, 2011 4:13pm Apr 9, 2011 4:13pm
Quoting EZTrades
A post by Razzle is the direction I went in that helped :
IIRC, Fischer claims that the statistical edge from the ACD strategy is based entirely on the fact that the high or low for the day occurs much more frequently during the first x minutes after the open, than would be predicted based on random chance.

Perhaps establishing if that was actually true for the forex markets would be a good starting point.
It clearly is not. MF's trading is based on markets that have a clearly defined trading day, such as the London stock market that opens at 8.00 am and closes at 6.00 pm. Approximately at least; I don't actually care exactly when the LSE opens and closes. The point is, these are fixed times.

The same does not quite apply to forex. Here, we have regional markets that open at certain times of the day. Those relevant to me are: Frankie at 7.00 am gmt and New York at 1.00 pm gmt.

This is when the majority of traders in the markets that affect me get going properly. Given that I am a piano teacher, my main work of the day gets going at 13.30'ish every day, so to an extent even New York is irrelevant to me. Even so, I get some good USDxxx trades during the brief period I am able to watch the USD pairs.

I am finding that taking the first hour of these two market openings as my OR is doing well. No guarantee that this will continue, given the trending nature of the markets since I started trying to develop my system.

We shall see.

  • #113
  • Apr 9, 2011 6:57pm Apr 9, 2011 6:57pm
Hi Steve ,


I am enjoying the thread . I have to laugh sometimes when I think here we are trying to improve the Method of a Professional Trader who has not only made millions trading it, but has taught others to trade it and they too have also made small fortunes trading it , but I guess thats human nature. You are correct that the the Forex Market does not have a definitive start time and is a 24 hour market, however , the majority of daily range occurs during the London session and into the US Session. Looking at the London open, there is enough of an edge in the open being near the high/low of the day to make some nice pips. It doesnt happen everday , so at times a trade may be stopped out and a 2nd or 3rd trade taken to offset the loss and make some positive pips. This is just some of my observations with this method.

Enjoying the thread ,

EZ
" Master Your Set-Up , Master Yourself "
  • #114
  • Apr 9, 2011 7:31pm Apr 9, 2011 7:31pm
Quoting EZTrades
Hi Steve ,


I am enjoying the thread . I have to laugh sometimes when I think here we are trying to improve the Method of a Professional Trader who has not only made millions trading it, but has taught others to trade it and they too have also made small fortunes trading it , but I guess thats human nature.
We are not trying to improve the Method of a Professional Trader. All I know about his method is what he publishes is his book, but the idea that his book offers up for public consumption everything he knows would be ludicrous if anyone were daft enough to posit it.

The knowledge that "has taught others to trade it and they too have also made small fortunes trading it" helps the rest of us not a jot. We have not benefited from his training. All we have is his book. A book is a book; nothing more.

The rest of us have to take whatever is on offer and adapt it to suit our trading styles. 'Trading styles' includes: our understanding of the markets; our tolerance of risk; the depths of our pockets; our access to help and support; etc

This thread is not about developing MF's trading style. It is about adapting what we learn from his book to our own trading and developing trading systems from what we learn.

Glad you are enjoying the thread. I look forward to some useful contributions from you.

  • #115
  • Apr 9, 2011 8:23pm Apr 9, 2011 8:23pm
Quoting SteveHopwood
We are not trying to improve the Method of a Professional Trader...This thread is not about developing MF's trading style. It is about adapting what we learn from his book to our own trading and developing trading systems from what we learn...
Fisher emphasizes that ACD is not a holy grail trading system. In his words ACD measures the PULSE of the market and is an aid to the trader`s existing trading method. Some aspects of Fisher`s method are clearly not suitable for retail Forex trading. For example tight stop loss settings will almost always result in SL hunting by the criminal brokers. After watching his videos few times I am sure what we are doing here would very much be endorsed by Mr Fisher.

Kind Regards
  • #116
  • Apr 9, 2011 10:14pm Apr 9, 2011 10:14pm
for some years i used it for shares as the opening time was constant so marks formula was great but the confusement of brokers opening time and closing time effected greatly MARKS ACD CALCULATIONS

MT4 MAKES IT WORSE IN MY OPINION

DID YOU NOTICE WHEN MARK WAS USING THIS HE INCLUDED AT THE BACK OF HIS BOOK SOME ADDITIONAL CALCS ALSO

but even using years iq feed for hot spot prices into amibroker

i noticed the banks bid and sell prices varied greatly at opning times eg barclays tulleys YOU CAN USE TIMES THESE FOR SCALPS

ect so the bk use this spot prices best ones AT THE TIME SOME USE AVERAGING


acd method is excellent i just used a modification to it to manage the discrepency of the feed and opening prices i found mainly for me this was put in the too hard basket

so i used the square as adc and the opening price of the broker i was using the power of 9 didnt seem on mt4 to be as effective as now price
and buyers sellers or the dollar brians index corelation for me


maybe its because mark FISHER AND HIS TEAM WAS A FLOOR TRADER NOT AN MT4 USER THINK ABOUT IT A HUGH DIFFERENCE



SO I ajusted my method to suit mt4 eg total different method to using t prices of banks using lowest prices and highest during market differences
during volatility

i may be wrong but its my opinion only

however i use the basics on mt4 modified to suit my stlye of trading

there is no right or wrong way to trade only what works for you and produces real profits constantly

its only my opinion i could be wrong often i am

best wishes on this super work you guys are doing

I ONLY ADDED A FEW COMENTS TO HELP I HOPE IT DOES

from BRIAN
  • #117
  • Apr 10, 2011 3:55am Apr 10, 2011 3:55am
Quoting brijon
for some years i used it for shares as the opening...
Sure does Brian. Cheers.

  • #118
  • Apr 10, 2011 11:44am Apr 10, 2011 11:44am
I also changed the open range for my own requirements. My approach is based mainly on the statistical data (see excel file) and on my personal trading sessions.
I redesigned the spreadsheet OR check today - hope is no error in it. Just let me know in case there is something wrong.
GMT+1
1. Trading Session 08:00 - 12:00
2. Trading Session 14:00 - 18:30
Open Range 30M from 8:00 - 8:30.
I use this OR for all 4 majors - I prefer Frankfurt opening instead of London opening. It works fine for me – maybe because I trade mainly EURUSD.
Earlier I used for setup good Aup entry time confirmation from 2x5M candle close above Aup.
In recent years with more dynamic / volatile price action - I skipped this entry condition.
Most difficult for me is mentally - staying in a positive trade on a trend day until the target is reached – that requires sometimes more passion I have.


http://www.4shared.com/file/mohrU8yd..._OR_Check.html

regards ines


PS: I do not know why - but I can not upload an Excel File
  • #119
  • Apr 10, 2011 11:51am Apr 10, 2011 11:51am
Quoting ines
I also changed the open range for my own requirements. My approach is based mainly on the statistical data (see excel file) and on my personal trading sessions....
Only certain file types are acceptable to FF. When mine is one that is not accepted, I put it into a zip file.

  • #120
  • Edited 2:49am Apr 28, 2011 2:46am | Edited 2:49am
Quoting EZTrades
Hi Steve ,


I am enjoying the thread . I have to laugh sometimes when I think here we are trying to improve the Method of a Professional Trader who has not only made millions trading it, but has taught others to trade it and they too have also made small fortunes trading it , but I guess thats human nature. You are correct that the the Forex Market does not have a definitive start time and is a 24 hour market, however , the majority of daily range occurs during the London session and into the US Session. Looking at the London open, there is...
I am sure u r good trader, but Mr. Fisher is not THE GOD ( hi is far, far away from it , in fact he's more near to other guy !)him self, so "his system" is not 10 commands from the Bible, and YES HIS SYSTEM CAN BE IMPROVED ACTUALLY CHANGED FUNDAMENTALLY ( I DID), AND WORKS GREAT WITH FOREX !
cheers and enjoy the tread

ps/ and if you have the open sentiment/pending too/ indicator (what the CRIMS have and we don't), Mr. Fisher would be a small fish even 4 u !!!! cheers again
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