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vsa with Malcolm

  • #18,361
  • Apr 8, 2011 9:05am Apr 8, 2011 9:05am
Could anybody post a range indicator please?
  • #18,362
  • Apr 8, 2011 9:54am Apr 8, 2011 9:54am
Quoting dvarrin
I already understand a bit better. I'll post other charts in the coming days ;-)

Thanks a lot to all of you guys ;-)

I really like the drawing of the trigger lines.
Hi dvarrin,

thanks for your questions. I am learning VSA myself and could very well relate to your questions. After going through the charts of the experts in reply to your chart, this came to my mind :

I would not have taken a buy because :

a) pres pointing out - the strong rise and ADR already behind you means the BB have already made the profit from the markup. Anything later is probably amateurs jumping on board, too late, when the BB are already taking profit.
b ) I see your high volume up bar as one of the last markup bars to squeeze out profit. This often is a trap.

Until now ( learning a lot each week ) I see that there are 2 approaches of " highly skilled ", in the case of HG, MalcomB or pres & Beljavina they have merged already......

1. ) develop the art of reading BB intentions while price is still in an accumulation or distribution range. Spread should be narrow, breakouts are shortlived and serve as tests of supply or demand. Then your entries have maximum timing advantage, you are entering BEFORE the rise of market, shakeouts etc happen. Largest profit with least risk, as you enter truly at wholesale prices. ( eg Sonofin demonstrated this on GJ )

2. ) develop the art of understanding trigger levels on 15min and 5min. Look at pres78 charts for this. You need to be incredibly precise and read volume not just based on the last 2 bars, but also related to the trigger bars volume. Daily profits possible, as typical " moves of the day " on the majors create ample opportunities. Requires a lot of practice and fearless execution.


Hope that helps and once again thanks !




______________
michael
Be like water.
  • #18,363
  • Edited 10:32am Apr 8, 2011 10:16am | Edited 10:32am
Seeing a little weakness coming into EU in the 1.4430-4440 range. On a 30M chart there's an end or rising market, and upthrust into ND indications. Plus the effort to rise is failing at the R1 daily pivot. Perhaps it's a fade into close. But ET (GMT-5) prop traders will make that call when they come back from lunch.
******************
Edit: add chart of 30M EU showing SOW after rally. Note the lack of lower lows. This is still a bid market. Don't be going against the trend. Upthrust or not.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu_30m_sow_040811.gif Size: 27 KB
  • #18,364
  • Apr 8, 2011 11:21am Apr 8, 2011 11:21am
Green line is trigger at high of highest volume bar in area of price... there is a higher volume bar but it is lower than price action... it may again come into play but...

Red lines left to right;

1. High volume trigger bar. Start with trigger at close... Price moves up away and then starts to roll over.
2. We are back inside the trigger bar so I now watch for reaction at high,low or close. 2 bars before we had an UT of sorts and then confirmation of the UT which takes us into the trigger zone on this bars close. (also we are below red Hull and PAL)
3. This bar was ND right until it closed (but it is an upbar and a ND none the less on decreased volume). This is short entry 1.
4. Now this is the bar which confirms the trigger as being the high of bar 1. Squat bar with it high right at the high of the trigger bar. Highest volume in 3 bars, closed off it's high. Effort + No result = Short entry 2 at low of this bar.

That sorry looking blue bar after the drop was well under way would give entry 3.
Attached Image
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #18,365
  • Apr 8, 2011 11:34am Apr 8, 2011 11:34am
Sorry, I don't think there is an end of rising market, because the volume is not high enough. If SM is still bullish, they are testing supply after push through the resistance. It the test is failed, I think it's SOW. I have already been short anyway.

Quoting rbumbalough
Seeing a little weakness coming into EU in the 1.4430-4440 range. On a 30M chart there's an end or rising market, and upthrust into ND indications. Plus the effort to rise is failing at the R1 daily pivot. Perhaps it's a fade into close. But ET (GMT-5) prop traders will make that call when they come back from lunch.
******************
Edit: add chart of 30M EU showing SOW after rally. Note the lack of lower lows. This is still a bid market. Don't be going against the trend. Upthrust or not.
  • #18,366
  • Apr 8, 2011 11:51am Apr 8, 2011 11:51am
Quoting msmarple
Hi dvarrin,

thanks for your questions. I am learning VSA myself and could very well relate to your questions. After going through the charts of the experts in reply to your chart, this came to my mind :

I would not have taken a buy because :

a) pres pointing out - the strong rise and ADR already behind you means the BB have already made the profit from the markup. Anything later is probably amateurs jumping on board, too late, when the BB are already taking profit.
b ) I see your high volume up bar as one of the last markup bars to squeeze...
Thanks a lot to you and everybody here for you help!!!
  • #18,367
  • Apr 8, 2011 12:13pm Apr 8, 2011 12:13pm
Quoting rbumbalough
Seeing a little weakness coming into EU in the 1.4430-4440 range. On a 30M chart there's an end or rising market, and upthrust into ND indications. Plus the effort to rise is failing at the R1 daily pivot. Perhaps it's a fade into close. But ET (GMT-5) prop traders will make that call when they come back from lunch.
******************
Edit: add chart of 30M EU showing SOW after rally. Note the lack of lower lows. This is still a bid market. Don't be going against the trend. Upthrust or not.
Hi rbumbalough, Is your volume indicator available somewhere?
  • #18,368
  • Apr 8, 2011 12:15pm Apr 8, 2011 12:15pm
How do we place stoploss and profit target? Anybody can explain me? Often there is a big bag in the opposite direction killing all the profit. Can we anticipate that in some way?
  • #18,369
  • Apr 8, 2011 1:37pm Apr 8, 2011 1:37pm
Quoting pres78
Green line is trigger at high of highest volume bar in area of price... there is a higher volume bar but it is lower than price action... it may again come into play but...

Red lines left to right;

1. High volume trigger bar. Start with trigger at close... Price moves up away and then starts to roll over.
2. We are back inside the trigger bar so I now watch for reaction at high,low or close. 2 bars before we had an UT of sorts and then confirmation of the UT which takes us into the trigger zone on this bars close. (also we are below red Hull...
This looked tradeable on 15 min also. Very good.
  • #18,370
  • Apr 8, 2011 3:31pm Apr 8, 2011 3:31pm
Quoting dvarrin
Hi rbumbalough, Is your volume indicator available somewhere?
Hello D, nice to meet you. The chart I posted shows a forex MT4 tick activity display printed by the Hidden Gap Volume indicator V.5. This is available in the thread attachments of this and the other VSA thread. But I've attached it to this message for your convenience.

Best Wishes.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Hidden Gap Volume Indicator V5[b].ex4   20 KB | 559 downloads
  • #18,371
  • Apr 8, 2011 3:41pm Apr 8, 2011 3:41pm
Quoting polomine
Sorry, I don't think there is an end of rising market, because the volume is not high enough. If SM is still bullish, they are testing supply after push through the resistance. It the test is failed, I think it's SOW. I have already been short anyway.
Yes you're right. It was only a little temporary weakness used as a test on the two hour chart. EU is a run away freight train. Don't be short till the Sovereign buyers are satiated, and JCT is proposing new credit swaps with his buddy Ben at the FED associated with QE 37.

(Recently heard at the Department of Treasury: "Hey guys, we need new and faster printing presses to keep up with all the demand for more federal reserve notes." "Oh, sure thing, its in the emergency spending appropriation."

Ha, American Suckers, you're (Opps, I mean we're.) the securitisation for your Master's at the FED unlimited line of debt currency. But you like being a slave don't you? Free welfare, food stamps, social security, medicare and so forth. All you have to do is obey and Uncle will take good care of you.
  • #18,372
  • Apr 8, 2011 3:43pm Apr 8, 2011 3:43pm
Quoting dvarrin
How do we place stoploss and profit target? Anybody can explain me? Often there is a big bag in the opposite direction killing all the profit. Can we anticipate that in some way?
Hello Dvarrin,

Welcome to the forum and vas thread.

It is really up to the trader them selves. There will always be a counter trade, but trading towards the higher volume in the direction the charts tell us will be a less risky trade. You'll at least know why you entered a position, and learn from it, which we are all here doing as well.

Stop losses are very important. You should get psychologically immune to it with it for every trade. It'll be like a gamble instead of a career if you decide to let it ride. Many traders here in this forum as I have learned build enough self esteem & discipline to understand why enter a position during asia open or london close. Be aware that if you enter into a possible good trade, think of the black swan such as intervention, catastrophic moves which can always wipe your position or your sl, or even your account. It is a matter of tolerance that you'd have to be familiar with in yourself.

I hope this helps.

I hope your successs prevails from all of us here. Thanks and share your thoughts on trading even though it is not VSA related. I am still learning VSA myself. Any thing really helps.
  • #18,373
  • Edited 4:57pm Apr 8, 2011 4:22pm | Edited 4:57pm
Quoting Beljevina
Yeah, I wasn't kidding with 145, just in awe; with the USD/USDX in the crapper and the world biggest and argueably most important country running out of cash - and closing down! - it won't be too hard.

I thought about the tank or even closing off it's high scenario; the more deceptive way to leave it for the week is in full marubozu bull mode to make sure everyone and their dog is long, and then maybe mess around next week.
So the 5pm NY close got to 1.44868. Am solely posting here for the bookmark and awe value. Oh, and who can forget oil at over 113.1

If you watched the PA today, you would have seen every single hourly bar close well off it's bottom; and we got about 183 pips from open to close. This thing is so bid it's not funny. I'm still getting a kick out of that 'expert' John Taylor planning to short this thing at 4435 for 4150; I so regret all the time I wasted following his BS calls in his newsletter, which were overwhelmingly wrong and off by hundreds of pips. One could tell the algos were stepping all over themselves today bidding this thing up - the resulting PA was a now rather common Friday melt-up type mode where you all but knew further highs were coming later in the illiquid part of the day. For anyone who followed along, it was a great exercise in getting some PA viewing and familiarization time under your belt.

The other awing thing for me is the joke that the USD and the US seems to quickly be becoming. No offense to my US colleagues, but the preoccupation with ridiculousness and verbal masturbation by politicians and mainstream media, while the once most powerful country can't keep it's lights on, alongside so many major issues, is very sad. (No, I haven't been reading zero-hedge for weeks now ) I wonder when the reality check will set in ...

On the psycho-euro, seems we've only done 336 pips for the week. Frankly, I expect that much more next week, be we left with a wick or marubuzo candle. I've taken 1/3 off the table here from earlier this week. PA aside, I can't wait to see how next week unfolds in euroland and the US, or, should I say, how it unravels ... happy weekend to all.

Added: Some weekend reading incl. How to turn the US around , by a great & grounded source, Kathy Lien. Enjoy. Also eerily familiar and putting into perspective Why No One Wants the US Dollar. (Courtesy of Attila over in the EURUSD thread)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2011-04-08_170131.png Size: 41 KB
  • #18,374
  • Apr 8, 2011 4:24pm Apr 8, 2011 4:24pm
Quoting rbumbalough
Hello D, nice to meet you. The chart I posted shows a forex MT4 tick activity display printed by the Hidden Gap Volume indicator V.5. This is available in the thread attachments of this and the other VSA thread. But I've attached it to this message for your convenience.

Best Wishes.
Thanks a lot! This indicator looks realy nice!! :-)) You have found it in the thread of Shamus?
  • #18,375
  • Apr 8, 2011 5:13pm Apr 8, 2011 5:13pm
1.4480 it is .. I am always amazed how those resistance areas are tested over and over. very nice 330 pip weekly range . pretty normal really.

I wonder how many sold at this level just because ...lol

If 1.4500 breaks next week and we see a nice test then I will get back in a long for 1.4880 .. go check weekly charts back 2 years as to why the target

Quoting malcolmb14
From a daily perspective sundays are to be ignored. Fridays cannot be compared to Thursdays due to the shortened trading session but they can be compared to prior Fridays.

I am trading a 12 hour chart down and looking for entries on test days for the weekly move . Trading smaller times frames you get caught up in the noise. i wonder how many traders lost 100 pip and more yesterday when they got caught in the ugly noise / range day after interest rate annoucements. However we know form the higher time frame that Monday was a test and that since...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #18,376
  • Apr 8, 2011 7:21pm Apr 8, 2011 7:21pm
Quoting malcolmb14
1.4480 it is .. I am always amazed how those resistance areas are tested over and over. very nice 330 pip weekly range . pretty normal really.

I wonder how many sold at this level just because ...lol

If 1.4500 breaks next week and we see a nice test then I will get back in a long for 1.4880 .. go check weekly charts back 2 years as to why the target
I have upside targets as long as they want to keep taking it up... eyeing;

4900, 5100, 5350 and then 6000 and well if we get there... all bets are off and quite frankly who the hell knows. But... one step at a time.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #18,377
  • Edited 8:49am Apr 9, 2011 6:25am | Edited 8:49am
Quoting dvarrin
How do we place stoploss and profit target? Anybody can explain me? Often there is a big bag in the opposite direction killing all the profit. Can we anticipate that in some way?
In terms of stops I see it like this : the classic textbook stop would be " place the stop above/below the last swing high/low ". As we know from experience, this is often the worst place.

Learning to look at the charts VSA way has revolutionized the way I look at stops. Why ? because you actually start to understand the tricks, test bars, squats ( narrow range high volume ) bars. In case of an imminent reversal for example we could say : we wait for supply/demand coming in, upthrusts or tests, the observing of trigger levels, etc.

So in summary if we understand bar by bar what the true intentions are, we can anticipate better, which areas are safe for stops and which ones are the unsafe/amateur levels.

And by observing the background and higher timeframes like Malc, we can anticpate key levels for the week, which are defended by larger institutional traders - so then our stops behind these levels will also be safer.

Hope this helps.



____________
michael
Be like water.
  • #18,378
  • Apr 9, 2011 9:19am Apr 9, 2011 9:19am
at 1.3 ish I mentioned 1.57 targets by 3rd quarter this year due to weekly and monthly vsa charts. i was laughed at and called a muppet by so many ..... so lets see...

what is worse fundamentally ? USD or euro ? last time i looked Euro zone does not have the same debt per capita ratio as US does. In fact us debt per capita right now is as high as Japan was when its economy sank a number of years ago and it has never recovered.

Quoting pres78
I have upside targets as long as they want to keep taking it up... eyeing;

4900, 5100, 5350 and then 6000 and well if we get there... all bets are off and quite frankly who the hell knows. But... one step at a time.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #18,379
  • Edited 10:15am Apr 9, 2011 9:36am | Edited 10:15am
well i have to admit i sold right here, small amount, for the simple reason that we are close to last year's high (4578). if you look at yearly chart, 2010 had a LL and a LH and i would think it is relevant in terms of stops... but will keep my stop tight.
however even if this level is taken, does not mean that we won't see a retrace; the higher it goes now, the lower it may retrace... because with a new annual HH in place the bias will look different and big speculators will take advantage of this.
and the chart here is another reason why i sold at this area

Quoting malcolmb14
1.4480 it is .. I am always amazed how those resistance areas are tested over and over. very nice 330 pip weekly range . pretty normal really.

I wonder how many sold at this level just because ...lol

If 1.4500 breaks next week and we see a nice test then I will get back in a long for 1.4880 .. go check weekly charts back 2 years as to why the target
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fibo-anual.gif Size: 17 KB
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #18,380
  • Apr 9, 2011 11:02am Apr 9, 2011 11:02am
That is a beautiful chart I have to say.
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