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vsa with Malcolm

  • #18,281
  • Apr 7, 2011 8:31am Apr 7, 2011 8:31am
Quoting pres78
Very true... high volume UT's I have seen too many times be full of hidden buyers who quickly take out the high... that is why I error on the side of caution when it comes to high volume UT's.
.
Thanks pres for your insights, much appreciated. I was scared in turn to play on squat you have described as it was between triger lines and direction wasn't clear enough for me at this time.
Trade what you see, not what you expect. BE LIKE WATER MY FRIEND.
  • #18,282
  • Apr 7, 2011 8:46am Apr 7, 2011 8:46am
Look like my fav thread is slowing down...
Come on ppl post ur VSA set up..


Sonic
  • #18,283
  • Apr 7, 2011 9:33am Apr 7, 2011 9:33am
Quoting FrankSA
I have a buy limit order above what looks like a test bar..why..NY should kick in soon and there has been a mark down in the market. Lets see if once again they kick it to the upside.....??
er..kinda like this..got chicken and took profit @ 42 pips...looks like could head into some temp resistance...will see if I can pick it up again if there is a retracement.. lets see how it plays out..
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  • #18,284
  • Apr 7, 2011 11:27am Apr 7, 2011 11:27am
Hi,

I know there are a lot of successful traders using VSA and I would like you to give me some advices on how to be a winning trader with VSA.

I'm new to VSA, but I know all the different patterns (Climax, Upthrust, End of the marker, No demand, no supply, test, stopping volume, ...). But my travel along with VSA is far from being beautiful!!

I must me the luckier trader in a way, because it looks like I'm able to catch exactly the reversal of a currency pair.

I follow all the advices, follow the trend, check higher timeframes, but it always happen that I'm wrong. And if I'm right, it is for a very short time. For example, I go short on a no demand bar after an end of the market and and upthrust at the back ground. I can even wait for the market to show lower lows and lower highs, then a enter short on a no demand bar and the next five bars are going in the right direction, giving me 15 or 20 pips (I'm using the 5m timeframe); the next two bars are strong bullish bars making me lose all the profit, even if they are up bars on low volume. And even stranger than that, even if the volume is lower, then the trend is turning bullish again and making even higher highs than before.

What am I doing wrong? How can it be that I'm always on the wrong side when I see VSA signals in harmony with the longer term trend?
  • #18,285
  • Apr 7, 2011 11:59am Apr 7, 2011 11:59am
An opportunity presents itself to me and however sad it may be that only I may benefit from it, I share the concept with the thread. My last two trades have been stopped out flat at break even. The opportunity here I avail myself of is to exercise discipline to stick to my speculation business plan. One of the actions on my plan’s “Don’t do It” list is revenge trading. I am tempted to up my normal leverage at a time of day when I don’t usually open new transactions in order to get even for wasting my time and efforts to only be stopped out flat. By not doing this I am exhibiting one of the key character traits of successful and profitable speculators, discipline to follow the speculation business plan. Another element in my speculation business plan is to reinforce positive and discourage negative behavior especially when it relates to my trading psychology. By celebrating this small example of trading discipline, I am strengthening my character and configuring my psychological trader’s profile to automatically obey the rules of the speculation business plan.

Many Thanks to the Readers and Best Wishes for Big Profits.
  • #18,286
  • Apr 7, 2011 2:01pm Apr 7, 2011 2:01pm
Here is something that I would like to stress to the VSA community and a look out to why I think we might still see a high for the next couple months.

Directly from ECB's website;

"July 2008 ECB Monetary Policy Statement

The monetary analysis confirms the prevailing upside risks to price stability at medium to longer-term horizons. In line with our monetary policy strategy, we take the view that the sustained underlying strength of monetary and credit expansion in the euro area over the past few years has created upside risks to price stability. Over recent quarters, these risks appear to have become manifest as inflation has trended upwards. Against this background, the continued strength of monetary dynamics represents an important signal of the risks to price stability over the medium term that we have been addressing through our actions since end-2005, including today’s move.

April 2011 ECB Monetary Policy Statement

Turning to the monetary analysis, the annual growth rate of M3 increased to 2.0% in February 2011, from 1.5% in January. Looking through the recent volatility in broad money growth owing to special factors, M3 growth has continued to edge up over recent months. The annual growth rate of loans to the private sector also increased further to 2.6% in February, from 2.4% in the previous month. Hence, the underlying pace of monetary expansion is gradually picking up, but remains moderate. At the same time, monetary liquidity accumulated prior to the period of financial market tensions remains ample and may facilitate the accommodation of price pressures in the euro area."

From my interpretation, the euro nation is definitely in trouble now compare to 2008. Why? First of many, Trichet sounded very troubled where he needed to explain the increases of annual growth of M3, whereas in 2008, he insisted that by raising the bench mark would be a RISK. It would only be a risk, if it was not necessary to increase rates.

Second, today's rate increase was one quarter earlier than in 2008. That is one quarter earlier! Wow! This shows SOW in the beginning of the year (thus the upside to the eurusd.) and a necessary hike right away.

Third, trichet indicates just today, " monetary liquidity accumulated prior to the period of financial market tensions remains ample and may facilitate the accommodation of price pressures in the euro area." This suggests that the hike today might not be enough to pressure inflation.

Fourth, there were no signs in 2008's hike indicating a further "price pressure in the euro area" or shall I say no further possible hikes. Now looking at July 2008, the EURUSD dropped huge.

Now, it is apparent that if this quarter in the euro zone was like that in 2008, where there would be no "risk" in hiking rates, then it would be clear that the eur will depreciate. Instead, it just looks like the eur will continue to appreciate.
  • #18,287
  • Apr 7, 2011 3:41pm Apr 7, 2011 3:41pm
Quoting dvarrin
Hi,

I know there are a lot of successful traders using VSA and I would like you to give me some advices on how to be a winning trader with VSA.

I'm new to VSA, but I know all the different patterns (Climax, Upthrust, End of the marker, No demand, no supply, test, stopping volume, ...). But my travel along with VSA is far from being beautiful!!

I must me the luckier trader in a way, because it looks like I'm able to catch exactly the reversal of a currency pair.

I follow all the advices, follow the trend, check higher timeframes, but it always...
Hey man,

you should post some charts of your trades and then people may be able to help. Theres great people on this thread!

as for this week, i missed tuesday and its just put me out for the week, EU played games with me!
  • #18,288
  • Apr 7, 2011 3:52pm Apr 7, 2011 3:52pm
You have to devote a lot of time to really deeply understand the movement of the price. It's much harder than following some trading system, such as buy when those two lines cross etc., but when you do understand VSA you have much greater potential for being successful. I would advice you to print all the 5min EURUSD charts of the past 6 months and try to understand them. You will start seeing specific patterns of price movements before each move and then trade only these patterns at the right edge. With time you'll get more and more patterns into your mind. But remember, be very, very patient, you won't be successful after couple of months.
I've attached two charts with two patterns I talked about above.

Please add your charts, so we can comment.

Quoting dvarrin
Hi,

I know there are a lot of successful traders using VSA and I would like you to give me some advices on how to be a winning trader with VSA.

I'm new to VSA, but I know all the different patterns (Climax, Upthrust, End of the marker, No demand, no supply, test, stopping volume, ...). But my travel along with VSA is far from being beautiful!!

I must me the luckier trader in a way, because it looks like I'm able to catch exactly the reversal of a currency pair.

I follow all the advices, follow the trend, check higher timeframes, but it always...
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  • #18,289
  • Apr 7, 2011 4:03pm Apr 7, 2011 4:03pm
Quoting dvarrin
Hi,

I know there are a lot of successful traders using VSA and I would like you to give me some advices on how to be a winning trader with VSA.

I'm new to VSA, but I know all the different patterns (Climax, Upthrust, End of the marker, No demand, no supply, test, stopping volume, ...). But my travel along with VSA is far from being beautiful!!

I must me the luckier trader in a way, because it looks like I'm able to catch exactly the reversal of a currency pair.

I follow all the advices, follow the trend, check higher timeframes, but it always...
Please go back and post up some charts of a few "failed" trades and I am sure some of the vetrans would be more than happy to have a go at your anylisis with a fresh set of eyes and may just be able to shed some light for you... Heck I am no vetran but I will even offer up my 2 cents to see if I can help.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #18,290
  • Apr 7, 2011 4:07pm Apr 7, 2011 4:07pm
So EU today is looking somewhat like a low volume test bar on the daily charts with lowest volume of last 3 days and a decently high close... the problem is I can't quite pin point what it was a test of. Daily low around 4240 (not a super important level as far as I can determine) so I just can't put my finger on it. Just a test of the weak bulls I guess.

Edit... I guess one way to look at it is we tested that old 2010 high at 4279 broken yesterday for supply and managed to close above it again today... good for the bulls me thinks.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #18,291
  • Apr 7, 2011 5:06pm Apr 7, 2011 5:06pm
Two Interval Entry "Rule". Well, I don't know if it is a rule or not but it definitely has some merit. I only wish I practiced the nuances correctly today.

Take a look at the chart below.

After seeing some obvious signs of demand enter the market, price began to move up. The move up, however, was on decreasing volume....

1. Price moves up and closes on the close of a trigger zone on volume less than the previous two bars. This is a No Demand. No Demand is not uncommon at the nascent part of an up trend. But the BBs nevertheless will often test immediately after seeing it. They did.

I saw where we were and I saw the test. I place a limit order to get long on tick above the high of the test bar.

The next interval did not bring me into the market. More importantly, it did not close higher than the test and made a lower low. This means the test has failed. Unfortunately, I was thinking "2 Interval Rule" so I kept my order in place and waited to see what would happen on the next interval. This was my mistake. Waiting 2 intervals is fine, but when the first interval negates the SOW or SOS, then it's time to bail and re-evaluate.

2. This bar brought me into the market.

Looking closer at this bar, we see that this is an Up Thrust In The Form Of No Demand. Whatever amount of demand was present was clearly swamped by demand as the close is near the low on this up bar.
Now, If I had not stayed for the second bar trying to get long, I would be placing a Sell Limit below the low of this Bar.

2a. Note that this bar does not bring you into the market on the short side. However, unlike before, this bar closes down thus confirming the Up Thrust. And it does not make a higher high which is even better. Therefore, in this case, waiting for the second interval makes sense as the current interval does not negate the SOW.

2b. This next interval does trade lower and would bring you into the market on the short side.

Because I was intent on getting long, I missed the sign of weakness in the form of a failed test. The Up Thrust brought me into the market and I was under pressure from the get-go. Rather than fight the tape and stay long, I should have exited. Had I been listening to the nuances of the market, I should have never been long and been looking to get short.

Many of you may already know these subtleties, but I did not ( or at least I did not pay attention to them) and I wanted to put them down on virtual paper for my own benefit.
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #18,292
  • Apr 7, 2011 5:25pm Apr 7, 2011 5:25pm
Quoting HiddenGap
Two Interval Entry "Rule". Well, I don't know if it is a rule or not but it definitely has some merit. I only wish I practiced the nuances correctly today.

Take a look at the chart below.

After seeing some obvious signs of demand enter the market, price began to move up. The move up, however, was on decreasing volume....

1. Price moves up and closes on the close of a trigger zone on volume less than the previous two bars. This is a No Demand. No Demand is not uncommon at the nascent part of an up trend. But the BBs nevertheless will...
Whatsupp,

Low vol at 2 shows market strength(bearish right)? if more vol you would look for a buy?
  • #18,293
  • Apr 7, 2011 5:31pm Apr 7, 2011 5:31pm
But high BB's buy at 10:40-45 because it closes in the middle?(Lots of lume too) :/ Thats the main reason i stayed out tondvay. Just watched and had a quick game of Fifa.
  • #18,294
  • Apr 7, 2011 5:36pm Apr 7, 2011 5:36pm
Quoting HiddenGap
Two Interval Entry "Rule". Well, I don't know if it is a rule or not but it definitely has some merit. I only wish I practiced the nuances correctly today.

Take a look at the chart below.

After seeing some obvious signs of demand enter the market, price began to move up. The move up, however, was on decreasing volume....

1. Price moves up and closes on the close of a trigger zone on volume less than the previous two bars. This is a No Demand. No Demand is not uncommon at the nascent part of an up trend. But the BBs nevertheless will...
Very good post and a nice eye opener for something many of us could easily miss and overlook.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #18,295
  • Apr 7, 2011 7:50pm Apr 7, 2011 7:50pm
Quoting Shadip
Whatsupp,

Low vol at 2 shows market strength(bearish right)? if more vol you would look for a buy?

Not sure what you mean. Low volume at 1 shows strength. That is, it would show strength if it was not a failed test. The BBs are testing because of the prior interval. That interval is an up bar on volume less than the previous two-No Demand. Many new uptrends has No Demands as they start. We would in fact call this No Demand a polar bear in Hawaii. The BBs know this but they need to be sure, so they test.

Since the test fails, we can expect more selling. Now the Up bar @ 2 on low volume is a sign of weakness and in the right place. More volume on 2 would still be negative as it would simply be a high volume Up Thrust rather than an Up Thrust in the form of No Demand.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #18,296
  • Apr 7, 2011 8:05pm Apr 7, 2011 8:05pm
I don't post here very often, but its one of my favourite spots to learn from. From my stock market trading, I actually place buys and sells on the spike volume spots, and my question IS, do you guys ever place buys and sells at that point?

And if you do, is there a metatrader signal for high or spike volumes? Thanks in advance, there are some great posters on this thread.
  • #18,297
  • Edited 8:48pm Apr 7, 2011 8:21pm | Edited 8:48pm
looks like yesterdays bar is printing as a ns/nd. i am loving this.

edit:

5m and 15m has printed above high volume on daily. next is the H1 and H4, then we will see 1.44+ overnight.
  • #18,298
  • Apr 7, 2011 9:15pm Apr 7, 2011 9:15pm
So I'm at the Starbucks in Playa del Carmen Mexico looking at the beautiful run the Yen crosses and gbpchf had this week. Eur finally has made it above the 4350 level and I see no real reason why 1.45 should not be tested for stops next week.

With the price of oil ripping and producer nations needing to diversify reserves we could be in for a nice spring run.
  • #18,299
  • Apr 7, 2011 9:19pm Apr 7, 2011 9:19pm
Quoting steroidman
I don't post here very often, but its one of my favourite spots to learn from. From my stock market trading, I actually place buys and sells on the spike volume spots, and my question IS, do you guys ever place buys and sells at that point?

And if you do, is there a metatrader signal for high or spike volumes? Thanks in advance, there are some great posters on this thread.
Spike volume bars are of great importance for Trigger spots that the market will be drawn to for testing. Mark the close of your high volume price bars and watch to see how the market reacts when price returns. 9 times out of 10 you will have a ns//nd or a test. If price ignores the level and rips through it is a great sign of market strength/ weakness.
  • #18,300
  • Apr 7, 2011 9:23pm Apr 7, 2011 9:23pm
Quoting PipPipPip
looks like yesterdays bar is printing as a ns/nd. i am loving this.
Not really sure which/what you mean here ...

I'm still trying to find my compass post-Trichet. Thought I'd post only because

1) This euro (and all yen crosses) move started after 9pm EST which is an almost guaranteed dead time, since the majority of Asia moves almost always happen 7pm-9pm
2) The recent high was breached in the process (43488) - which rarely happens in Asia
3) New high of 4372 created (which rarely happens in Asia), so taking out some stops and (so far) parking just below more 4375 stops

All very unusual. I wonder what the big boy's perspectives are on Asia taking out presumably London's/Frankfurt's/NY's stops?

And oh, I wonder how many traders thought severe earthquake #2 would cause yen pairs to drop? It obviously didn't as they've all risen to right up to their recent days ago highs, incl, euroyen. Go figure - nothing like an intervention to throw things off.

Had I been trading, I'd like to think I would have spotted that bounce off the DPP and multiple POCs. Maybe I'll look for NDs up here for 20-30+ pips; just not crazy about the time, as volume here is poorly interpretable.
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