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AUDUSD for informed traders

  • #441
  • Edited 12:07pm Apr 7, 2011 11:53am | Edited 12:07pm
Quoting forexcompoun
Hi all, please exit this short @ 1.0420 then buy (actual support is 1.0415) till 1.0560 SL 70pips. Very typical of Thursdays- breakouts! Please we would no longer sell (exit our long) frm 1.052x the new level for going short would be about 10-20pips higher than 1.0560 Enjoy the ride. Meshach

Hmmm, I'm thinking in 1.0600 - 1.0630 zone...

Let's see...
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #442
  • Apr 7, 2011 2:33pm Apr 7, 2011 2:33pm
Quoting FX-Petra
Short going well so far.... Just had a big, fast drop below below 1.0460.... to fast for my taste. Took a $500 binary option call @ 0456. Strikes at 11:30 est. We'll see if she pays out!!!

Regards,
Closed my short earlier on the dip down @ 0425. Bought again @ 0415, hoping for a topside retest. TP is @ 0495--- SL now moved to BE. Good trades to all...

Regards,

btw--- lost on the option mentioned above. Easy come, easy go!!
  • #443
  • Apr 7, 2011 9:38pm Apr 7, 2011 9:38pm
I am still long AUD/USD. The problem is price is above its previous high back in July of 2008. There is no overhead resistance from previous buyers with remorse from being caught at the top; and now wanting to sell to break even. Price could go through 1.0500 tomorrow and go on up.
It is not just the Audie's interest rate; it is also the Fed printing Dollars like the Tribune printing funny papers.
Are we having fun yet? http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
  • #444
  • Apr 7, 2011 9:58pm Apr 7, 2011 9:58pm
Quoting FX-Petra
Closed my short earlier on the dip down @ 0425. Bought again @ 0415, hoping for a topside retest. TP is @ 0495--- SL now moved to BE. Good trades to all...

Regards,

btw--- lost on the option mentioned above. Easy come, easy go!!
Hi Petra,

Good Trade..I missed mine.
haha.
  • #445
  • Apr 7, 2011 11:32pm Apr 7, 2011 11:32pm
USD seem to be falling all the way down..
the trend is from small bulllish to very bearish against all major currency.

Pending report: Obama's summary on FY 2011 Fiscal Budget.
According to internal federal news - a rate hike of US currency by end of this year is possible.

Aussie breaking above 1.05 again. Trade at 1.0525 now..
Side track:
Eur breaking 1.400 resistance.
NZD breaking above 0.7820 resistance.
  • #446
  • Apr 7, 2011 11:38pm Apr 7, 2011 11:38pm
1.0527
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #447
  • Apr 8, 2011 8:26am Apr 8, 2011 8:26am
Quoting mrbandwidth
1.0527
What happens when there is no one left willing to be short this pair? This is simply amazing!!! 1.0500 was no problem. I guess there is no number that can stop this thing--- It seems it is a matter of perception at this point.

Regards,
  • #448
  • Apr 8, 2011 8:51am Apr 8, 2011 8:51am
Yes, the Australians will be vacationing in Florida this summer (their winter).
  • #449
  • Apr 8, 2011 9:10am Apr 8, 2011 9:10am
Took a short @ 0538. Price was there for a while and seemed to have trouble pushing through. Tight stop @ 0560. If price gets to 0520, I will move stop to BE and see if we can get a small pull back.

Regards,
  • #450
  • Apr 8, 2011 9:45am Apr 8, 2011 9:45am
On a logical note, a daily chart of A/U is pretty much screaming pullback. It is seriously overbought, and there is good divergence on the daily. If you are a technical trader, you pretty much have to be thinking short. It is pretty damn hard to make a long case here from a chart perspective. Obviously, logic seems to be suspended right now on this pair. And momentum is a hard thing to turn.

Regards,

ps--- based on my experience with daily chart reading, whenever I feel really good about a turning area, I can usally add 200-300 pips before it happens!!!!!
  • #451
  • Apr 8, 2011 11:05am Apr 8, 2011 11:05am
Breaking downward on 5 minute chart ..... doing a small short at 12:01 EDT with a tight stop.
  • #452
  • Apr 8, 2011 11:15am Apr 8, 2011 11:15am
I like the statement at the bottom of your name

ps--- based on my experience with daily chart reading, whenever I feel really good about a turning area, I can usally add 200-300 pips before it happens!!!!!

Same here, my friend. Same here. Puts a smile on my face
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #453
  • Apr 8, 2011 11:23am Apr 8, 2011 11:23am
Quoting Olu
I like the statement at the bottom of your name

ps--- based on my experience with daily chart reading, whenever I feel really good about a turning area, I can usally add 200-300 pips before it happens!!!!!

Same here, my friend. Same here. Puts a smile on my face
lol, I seem to find a trend here
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #454
  • Apr 8, 2011 12:13pm Apr 8, 2011 12:13pm
I see a bearish divergence on AUD/USD. When do you guys feel is a good time to short?
Fall seven times, stand up Eight! #GGMU
  • #455
  • Apr 8, 2011 12:18pm Apr 8, 2011 12:18pm
Quoting vickym
I see a bearish divergence on AUD/USD. When do you guys feel is a good time to short?
Which timeframe are you looking at. I see strength but that's the daily timeframe
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #456
  • Apr 8, 2011 12:31pm Apr 8, 2011 12:31pm
5M. See this screen
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd wallaby divergence.jpg Size: 108 KB
Fall seven times, stand up Eight! #GGMU
  • #457
  • Apr 8, 2011 1:12pm Apr 8, 2011 1:12pm
I am considering another pair to focus on. We are reaching levels that I do not understand. I am not getting hurt by this run.... in fact I have profited nicely. But we are getting to numbers where I just cannot bring myself to hit the buy button. I fear when the music stops there will not be enough chairs. When this has happened in the past (GBp/JPY) I was one of the ones without a chair. The pair gapped through my stops and my account was destroyed. I wish all longs well and we could go higher from here.... but as for me, I am keeping saftey first. Good, cautious trades to all!!

Regards,
  • #458
  • Apr 8, 2011 1:21pm Apr 8, 2011 1:21pm
Quoting FX-Petra
Took a short @ 0538. Price was there for a while and seemed to have trouble pushing through. Tight stop @ 0560. If price gets to 0520, I will move stop to BE and see if we can get a small pull back.

Regards,
Since this is going to be my last trade on this pair until we get a good retrace, I added 1 more short @ 0545 for a total of 3 lots. Moving all stops to 1.0625, targeting TP near the old high of 0260. The up move is probably not over, but the RR is good on this trade. If it hits, family vacation will be upgraded from Disneyland to Paris!!!

Regards,

ps-- if it misses, downgrade vaction to Florida panhandle.... but that still a pretty good spot!!
  • #459
  • Apr 8, 2011 2:58pm Apr 8, 2011 2:58pm
What happens when everyone is afraid to short is the price keeps going up. Eventually when everyone is in the market there are no more buyers and no more shorts. Then gravitiy takes over and the price drops like a rock. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif
  • #460
  • Apr 8, 2011 3:27pm Apr 8, 2011 3:27pm
The only trade I can see is an upside breakout, shorts from here are guesswork now. The price on the hourly has a huge gap from the 50 sma so even that timeframe isn't showing any change in trend. In fact we only touched the 50sma once this entire week and that was bought. You know the hedge funds are just watching the short orders piling on don't you? They'll keep repeating this until the US$ shows some strength. If the US$ continues dropping at this rate we could be testing 1.1 AUDUSD thistime next week.
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