USDCAD trend reversal?

well my analysis was half right.. to bad for me that I have a rule that I can not trend in the direction of the trend if price is with-in 100 pips of support/resistance.

Small longs a little under water going into the weekend but not overly concerned, U/C can be pretty forgiving.

Today was another case of good news for US makes the loonie stronger, however the rest of the market erased the dollar gains after the dovish fed speech, yet not a dent in the loonie strength.. this is why this can be a difficult pair to trade, it never seems to act like it should, lol then it goes and does it..

Cheers

To recap Friday and the week with regards to the USD index.
Friday had all the making of a bull trend bar in the index.
That would have confirmed a reasonable expectation for the tide in the USD bear to have changed.
NFP was reasonably good and exhibited evidence of changing economic fortune for the USA. That coupled with bullish fed speak from Plosser, Hoenig, and Fisher may have been enough to let bygones be bygones.

The exposure of Bernanke as shoveler of last resort from the US Supreme Court ruling on the Fed papers. Terribly damaging to any vestige of credibility of the Bernanke Fed for sound money. This could have been chalked up to extraordinary conditions and a one time occurence during a financial panic.

Then along comes Dudley from the NY Fed. The most powerful of all Fed branches with a statement demonstrating that nothing has really changed inside the FOMC. The doves still are in control and the USD will be thrown to the wind at a moments notice.

What else is the market to believe but that the worst fears are confirmed and the Fed is being run by the lunatics.

The USD bull case is tenuous at best. If renewed selling commences then the Bears will take the USD index much lower and we will have our first currency crisis for the new year.

It is possible that the market will focus on the stronger economic fundamentals for the US economy. Then a range bound situation will develope in the USD index, as the soverign debt crisis in Europe will certainly have some headline news very shortly.

Trichet pushing ahead with interest hikes in the face of negative peripheral country political upheaval, may be viewed as an attempt to shore up the Euro and not a sincere effort to address budding inflationary pressures.

This has possible negative implications for the Euro.

From all this the highest probability is for a high volatility range bound situation for the markets this coming week. So fading the extremes will be the trading strategy employed for USD pairs, as no clear basis for a trending environment exists.

The Yen based crosses are a different story. They have exhibited massive trend formations as weekly charts reveal strong breakouts in all pairs. Is it overdone at this point? Any retracements, if they occur should be used for building long term holdings.

This is all opinion, but what else does one use to trade? Assessing probability and then employing a strategy based upon that assement is a way to move from gambler to trader.

Have a great weekend everyone.

I shall sell with break <9624 ( Fri Lo)

COT: increase Cad longs.
However: oil & risk-aversion could take driver's seat.
USD still net sold wrt COT.

I too am looking to sell, but will wait for a retrace, .97ish would be nice. I just don't have the "guts" to short what could be a bottom..

Cheers

broke support, if price come back, sell limit is on at resistance @ 0.9680. we'll see
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-BFF2gwy5cF.../usdcad_d5.png
Regards

Crazy IMHO......you've broken a couple of the basics: 1) Never sell at support, 2) Buy low sell HIGH.

I reckon look more at what the charts are saying.....

i guess price missed my order. candle high - 0.96788. hoping for price to come back a bit

Looked @ charts & mthly,wkly said: The trend is yer friend.

Dly opined that ema's going down.
4H suggested that since rsi <50 more weight to sell decision.

Hr chart intoned that fib ( Mar 31 14:00 gmt hi - Apr 4 6:00 gmt lo)
$ was resisted @ 9686 the 61% level which was also a prev support level.

Just a couple of basics I be perusing linley.
Happy trading & remember I just am suggesting what I be doing not telling others what they should do.

DAWG: no guts here, just trending. Sound strategy on yer part ( you know that it will retrace & yer awaiting a good entry)
I got good advice from my psychic ( Gold Mansacks) who said "Look for a loonie 9500"

Can't tell if it's a bottom until a down TL on higher charts is violated.

Commodities (esp crude & gold) seem to drive Cad strength atm.
Long as yer pips are green in yer trades, don't matter what anybody else says.

Fair enough matey, you have thought through your trading decision at length using your indicators of choice.

I just felt that given we dropped quite sharply on Friday, breaking through the previous big support around .9680-.97, then it's much more likely (and sensible) to presume a daily or weekly retest of that level before continuing lower with the trend. Especially since other commodity currencies like AUD/USD are also at big resistance levels.

Closed half position for +50 pips. Will trail other half with swings.

Regards

Yo linley: greetings from the land up over.

My attempts at predicting possible retrace levels are atrocious (that & the fact that I am unable to sit in front of the computer during London or US sessions dissuades me from the "sell rally" mantra).

I have achieved better success (due to my unique circumstances) with " sell lows" in down trends or "buy hi's" in up trends. Don't maximize pips but as long as my account increases I be happy.

I truly appreciated your input Yer thoughts allowed me to re-analyze why I pulled the trigger on the trade.
So far -7 pips.
Dly shows $ hasn't broken the up TL(Mar 9-31) @ 9683.

As long as you make $$$$$ it doesn't matter whether yoube sellin or buyin.

Keep yer stick on the ice.

9624 sell is green pips. 9550 TP .
TA suggests 9500 (not if; but when). If retrace-9685 (Mar 9 close) probable SEL to add to shorts.

Long on Beaver: don't know if risk-on or carry trade causing yen X's north.
Buy stop @ 89.35 or retrace to 87.35 prev resistance. $ closed > 61% fib ( Apr 25/10 - Oct 24).

Spring is officially here ( the leafs are out of playoff contention).But wait 'til next year.

More blue signs then red( in my area) coupled with the recent Toronto mayor race Tory majority? Could be strong loonie? May 3rd might be good pipping
buying or selling. FOTO your northern Ants might be kicking some grasshopper arse.

Heh Scarecru,

Chilly and damp here now. The ants are just starting to show their noses after this winter.

Day of reckoning for the ECB. The show should be fun. Right out of a John LeCarrie novel, spy against spy.

BOJ seemed to be supporting USD/YEN this morning against the initial USD selling. Short YEN should be good as long as day ends up neutral or positive.

Somebody got ticked off about it and threw a haymaker at the YEN but it was countered immediaely. Just my take on price action this morning.
Got to go, Trichet will speak and the market will reveal its hand shortly.
Have a good one.

Think Trichet punted. Huff and puff, this is an acknowledgement that the soverign debt crisis of Europe is not over or resolved.

Merkel split with Weber last week should be confirmed by today. ECB cannot be as vigilant as they would like.

Politics is always a factor in Europe.

Getting a bit ugly now in equities. Went flat for the day

Evening FOTO: ended lower as did com/yen X's. Simple retrace or is there more momentum re: Yen repatriation? Today an aftershock of 7? 7+ is NOT an aftershock (Haiti, Chile, NZ QUAKES approached these levels!)

Dly: candle to me suggests indecision ( I shall lean toward retrace).

STO is o/s BUT rsi & ema's say down.

I have Buy stop @ 9625 watching TPs of 9663/85/9710.

Of course, my sell stop is 9567 ( Wed low) should the trend continue without a breather.
I have opposite plans for the Beaver.

I'm leaning toward a sell, down .9520, possibly .9485

Cheers