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Silent Service Method

  • #12,181
  • Apr 4, 2011 9:19am Apr 4, 2011 9:19am
Quoting femfam
My NZD/USD short was closed for loss and I am suing Chris for trading against me lol. However, I am still looking for the opportunity to sell this pair.

I have been watching this pair for a while now.
I haven't even opened the charts this morning, but I suspect this pair is more about the EUR than the AUD. What I mean is that the AUD is strong, so it can't be Aussie weakness. If the EUR/USD breaks out - this chart could be problematic for you. To be honest - the EUR/USD might end up being your signal before its all said and done.
  • #12,182
  • Apr 4, 2011 6:01pm Apr 4, 2011 6:01pm
I am paying very close attention to what the EUR/USD does in the next day or tow, because we are currently deciding something very important right now...and then there is that whole thing about several central bankers giving speeches, etc.
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  • #12,183
  • Apr 5, 2011 5:09am Apr 5, 2011 5:09am
Quoting clockwork71
I am paying very close attention to what the EUR/USD does in the next day or tow, because we are currently deciding something very important right now...and then there is that whole thing about several central bankers giving speeches, etc.
My attention is also on this pair. It's breakup or down is what is keeping me from entering the eur/aud trade i mentioned.
  • #12,184
  • Apr 5, 2011 8:31am Apr 5, 2011 8:31am
Quoting femfam
My attention is also on this pair. It's breakup or down is what is keeping me from entering the eur/aud trade i mentioned.
Its starting to break a little lower. Perhaps the close today will tell us more. No need to rush things....
  • #12,185
  • Apr 5, 2011 9:20am Apr 5, 2011 9:20am
Here is a chart that I really wish I had been paying attention to - Corn futures May expiry....
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  • #12,186
  • Apr 5, 2011 9:22am Apr 5, 2011 9:22am
I will be watching this chart closely.....interesting place for a shooting star to form.....its not done yet, but worth paying attention to.
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  • #12,187
  • Apr 5, 2011 9:49am Apr 5, 2011 9:49am
another chart
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  • #12,188
  • Apr 5, 2011 12:09pm Apr 5, 2011 12:09pm
New blog post. Not much thought, but it makes sense if you finish the random thoughts for me. A.D.D. day I am afraid.
  • #12,189
  • Apr 5, 2011 5:38pm Apr 5, 2011 5:38pm
Like I was saying....
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  • #12,190
  • Apr 5, 2011 5:41pm Apr 5, 2011 5:41pm
Aussie is probably next...
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  • #12,191
  • Apr 5, 2011 5:52pm Apr 5, 2011 5:52pm
What we are witnessing in the Yen crosses could be a cyclical low. In other words, we could have seen the bottom. The reason that I mentioned something about being less than 3 years into your trading career is that you probably will have never really experienced a true "carry trade" environment. While it is true were aren't actually in one, as the larger investors feel that the world is whole again, we will be.

The yen has generally been used as a funding currency over the years, as investors looked for higher yielding assets. They borrow in yen, and buy in Australia. (Or anywhere else with a higher yield.) Why would they do this? Easy.....they trade in bonds.

When you are getting a return of 4% on a bond while only having to pay 0.25% interest to your Japanese banker, that is free money as long as the currency markets don't go ape shit. As long as the yen continues to weaken, you are going to come out on top as you not only get the yield, but you also get the appreciation of the currency you are investing in. This makes your returns greater and makes your debts shrink at the same time as it gets paid back in Yen. Of course, this isn't your neighbor doing it, a paltry 3.75% return on his $1,000 government bond isn't worth looking at. These people are trading in the billions. 3.75% on a few billion starts to add up after a while.

Of course, there are other issues in Japan, and it's central bank will certainly continue to be in an easing mode. They will buy government bonds, etc. Japan needs the world to go back to normal and since the various central banks are in favor of that - it is happening before your very eyes.

I personally think the end of this Yen buying frenzy happened a few days ago when the CBs got involved. I am no longer willing to buy the Yen. It should also be noted that this economy will be hurting from the damage long after the rest of the world forgets about the tragedy, and even after the rest of us are on our feet again.

Another reason I mentioned three years? If you look at various Forex charts, you will notice the trend tends to run for about that long, give or take a few months.

Some people think this game is rigged. Of course it is, but not by the people you've been blaming.
  • #12,192
  • Apr 6, 2011 1:25pm Apr 6, 2011 1:25pm
Don't normally trade or even look at stocks but I've been watching Nokia since I heard they were in bed with Microsoft - Could be a winner.

6 looks like it could be the bottom.

Btw this is from the Helsinki exhange in Euros - think it's also quoted in NY.


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  • #12,193
  • Apr 6, 2011 2:05pm Apr 6, 2011 2:05pm
an update on my small BAC position. I am rich.
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  • #12,194
  • Apr 6, 2011 2:07pm Apr 6, 2011 2:07pm
Quoting stewrigh
Don't normally trade or even look at stocks but I've been watching Nokia since I heard they were in bed with Microsoft - Could be a winner.

6 looks like it could be the bottom.

Btw this is from the Helsinki exhange in Euros - think it's also quoted in NY.


Attachment
Here is the NY chart, symbol NOK - and it looks like it wants to bounce. Broke out today for my money.......
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  • #12,195
  • Apr 6, 2011 2:51pm Apr 6, 2011 2:51pm
Quoting clockwork71
What we are witnessing in the Yen crosses could be a cyclical low.
Some people think this game is rigged. Of course it is, but not by the people you've been blaming.
Hi CW

good post, thanks.
Myself I am also long on EJ since 115.75 but missed the rest - for now. I am also looking at AJ but I am usure in the way of playing it. Would prefer correction. If you would utilise the carry strategy how would you play this?
Is there any different way to enter given the carry situation?

Ford, my fun stock lately, has been doing just as one hoped. I am on holliday since last Friday and my money did not arrive in time to my broker before I left on Monday to nicer areas so I am not in - sadly.
I am planing to get in if I get a nice correction. What do you think?
I am not that upset, on Friday I am on a flight to Vietnam...the markets can wait. it is a good feeling that I had a good reading on the stuff anyway.

Thanks

Z

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Kind Regards zol
  • #12,196
  • Apr 6, 2011 5:56pm Apr 6, 2011 5:56pm
Quoting zoli
Hi CW

good post, thanks.
Myself I am also long on EJ since 115.75 but missed the rest - for now. I am also looking at AJ but I am usure in the way of playing it. Would prefer correction. If you would utilise the carry strategy how would you play this?
Is there any different way to enter given the carry situation?

Ford, my fun stock lately, has been doing just as one hoped. I am on holliday since last Friday and my money did not arrive in time to my broker before I left on Monday to nicer areas so I am not in - sadly.
I am planing to get in if...
Vietnam? I knew some guys that got to go there. They all had rifles though. The one common complaint - heat and bugs. They all did say that in between shots and explosions - it is a beautiful country.

As far as the XXX/JPY crosses - let them fall first, and hard before buying into any that you are not involved with. They are so parabolic at this point it's not even funny. The one exception is probably USD/JPY, although it is a bit stretched as well. I think you will find plenty of buying chances over the next several years. If this pair does what I think it will do - there will be chance after chance. Just promise me you won't get cute and try to short the pairs when you think it will pullback.....

As for Ford....let it fall as well. Good call though, and it shows that you understand technical analysis. It should pullback, but a lot of traders love Ford....so it should go up.
  • #12,197
  • Apr 6, 2011 8:37pm Apr 6, 2011 8:37pm
Uploaded a new video on the blog....

Chris
  • #12,198
  • Apr 7, 2011 12:44am Apr 7, 2011 12:44am
Quoting clockwork71
Just promise me you won't get cute and try to short the pairs when you think it will pullback.....
CW

Thanks for the comments.
I used to fire a position on every bar looked like THE BAR of bottom or top. I do not care any more. At least not to that degree. Being afraid of missing out the move...what a thing. Looking at the charts I keep missing a lot of pips and everyone does as we are not robots. I will not enter any soon but enjoy massage from some asian massage professional.
From tomorow on.

You mentioned nicely; trading is just not that important. Good advice.
Kind Regards zol
  • #12,199
  • Apr 7, 2011 11:41am Apr 7, 2011 11:41am
Quoting zoli
CW

Thanks for the comments.
I used to fire a position on every bar looked like THE BAR of bottom or top. I do not care any more. At least not to that degree. Being afraid of missing out the move...what a thing. Looking at the charts I keep missing a lot of pips and everyone does as we are not robots. I will not enter any soon but enjoy massage from some asian massage professional.
From tomorow on.

You mentioned nicely; trading is just not that important. Good advice.
I cannot tell you how much damage calling the tops and bottoms of currency pairs has done to accounts over the years. (I know....I recently said that I think the bottom is in on the yen pairs.....) But the truth is the charts will lead the way.....

I agree about the massage. I really did a number on my right shoulder yesterday at the gym.

Chris
  • #12,200
  • Apr 7, 2011 3:31pm Apr 7, 2011 3:31pm
Interesting chart. 50% retrace, a major s/r area.....and was a recent break out. Could be a good play if this pinbar holds around the 1.83 area.....

First chart is weekly - for perspective.
The second one is daily w/ the Fib drawn on it.

I also like the fundamentals on this pair. Yes....the ECB is going to have massive defaults, but the market isn't paying attention to that at the moment. The Kiwis simply have too many issues with the reconstruction and rake cuts to think it could power over the Euro. Interesting. It is also a form of "risk off" trade, however it's not the ultimate - AUD/CHF, but it shows money flowing from a ComDoll to a basic currency.
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