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AUDUSD for informed traders

  • #401
  • Apr 5, 2011 11:13am Apr 5, 2011 11:13am
Quoting FX-Petra
Missed my entry @ 0270. Sleeping costs money--- I guess nothing in life is free!! Waiting for another dip....

Regards,
hi petra,
if you dont mind me asking what would another dip be?
thank you?
  • #402
  • Apr 5, 2011 12:49pm Apr 5, 2011 12:49pm
Quoting riko2705
hi petra,
if you dont mind me asking what would another dip be?
thank you?
I have 2 lots waiting @ 0270.

regards,
  • #403
  • Apr 5, 2011 1:45pm Apr 5, 2011 1:45pm
Quoting FX-Petra
I have 2 lots waiting @ 0270.

regards,
thank you, good trading
  • #404
  • Apr 5, 2011 3:02pm Apr 5, 2011 3:02pm
Quoting FX-Petra
I have 2 lots waiting @ 0270.

regards,

agreed, bulls at 0250 or 0,270.


but this is countertrend on my charts
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd.gif Size: 31 KB
  • #405
  • Apr 5, 2011 8:51pm Apr 5, 2011 8:51pm
Anybody got an explanation for the rally off this bad housing data?
  • #406
  • Apr 5, 2011 8:53pm Apr 5, 2011 8:53pm
my explanation is : housing news don't affect AUD
  • #407
  • Apr 5, 2011 8:56pm Apr 5, 2011 8:56pm
Quoting Gar
Anybody got an explanation for the rally off this bad housing data?
Honestly, it got me scratching my head as well.
Still trying to find a reason for it
  • #408
  • Apr 5, 2011 9:13pm Apr 5, 2011 9:13pm
what really more interesting is, gold down AU up.... doesnt make sense at all now...
Logics do not apply in FOREX
  • #409
  • Apr 5, 2011 9:16pm Apr 5, 2011 9:16pm
Quoting Leftie
Honestly, it got me scratching my head as well.
Still trying to find a reason for it
This is purely tech driven.. fundies out the window for the timebeing.
The first sign of it was no or little reaction.. If short then bail..
  • #410
  • Apr 5, 2011 9:20pm Apr 5, 2011 9:20pm
Why the new rally with all the bad news? It is because the trend traders who have very bad timing just now noticed the AUD had been going up for the last 3 weeks. They waited for a small pull back and jumped in. Trend traders will always try to push a trend passed any reasonable point, like the last high, or the top of a channel.

I just got bitten by shorting AUD/JPY. Did not know what else to do; so I held my short in AUD/JPY; and took a second long in AUD/USD just to hedge. (Don't tell the US government; or they will pass another rule against hedging). I figure there is no such thing as a bad long position in AUD/USD; so I don't use a stop loss except when shorting. If my broker wants to take the price down to try to shake me out; it is alright with me. I will hold my position all the way down to 60 cents; and laugh as I buy more with my credit card. The Audie is part canine, it always dog paddles back up to the top. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
  • #411
  • Apr 5, 2011 9:28pm Apr 5, 2011 9:28pm
Quoting bskwak1124
what really more interesting is, gold down AU up.... doesnt make sense at all now...
Everything is in a mess now at least for the past hour or so.
  • #412
  • Apr 5, 2011 9:30pm Apr 5, 2011 9:30pm
Quoting lasty
This is purely tech driven.. fundies out the window for the timebeing.
The first sign of it was no or little reaction.. If short then bail..

yup, really wasnt any any reaction time to it at all.
Just that 5mins was all it took.

ha, i cant even spot it on the techs
  • #413
  • Apr 5, 2011 11:03pm Apr 5, 2011 11:03pm
Waiting 1.0450 To Short
  • #414
  • Apr 5, 2011 11:50pm Apr 5, 2011 11:50pm
Quoting J.Giordano
Waiting 1.0450 To Short
I think a few of us said that at 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.04

With Yen's weakness the pressure will be on the topside of the AUD.
Watch Euro as well there is some fairly large cross positions about to be unwound in Euro Chf.
This will drag the AUD with it i think..
  • #415
  • Apr 6, 2011 1:36am Apr 6, 2011 1:36am
This is odd. GBPUSD, EURUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY and AUDUSD are all trending up.
  • #416
  • Apr 6, 2011 3:28am Apr 6, 2011 3:28am
Quoting lasty
I think a few of us said that at 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.04

With Yen's weakness the pressure will be on the topside of the AUD.
Watch Euro as well there is some fairly large cross positions about to be unwound in Euro Chf.
This will drag the AUD with it i think..
We Will see My friend
  • #417
  • Edited 8:12am Apr 6, 2011 8:09am | Edited 8:12am
Hello everyone, this is my first post in Forex Factory. I trade purely on technicals.

Recently, the S&P500 chart bears reasonable resemblance to the the AUDUSD chart.

Downside pressure can be seen in the S&P500 with Stochastics and RSI in overbought zones. This is reinforced by a double doji formation at the top of an uptrend. I expect a risk aversion reversal in the S&P500 in the coming days and this will also be felt in the AUDUSD.

The chart below shows a 9 month daily chart of the S&P500.
Attached Image
  • #418
  • Apr 6, 2011 9:16am Apr 6, 2011 9:16am
Have mentioned before, it is tough to short this market because you are seeing people chase yields and you are getting paid 4.75%. Would you put your savings in a 0.25% yield or 4.75%? Look at the Carry trade on yen right now, people are thirsty for yields and as long as Crude remains high, dollar is not going to rally and the mess around the world (Inflation, Euro debt are all swept under the rug for now).

http://i53.tinypic.com/20qf4ub.png

If one wants to short AUD, the better bet would be to do it via AUDNZD which does not look good on intraday, daily or weekly.

http://i51.tinypic.com/vctjx5.png

That said, I am still spooked about how the market is one sided right now and I have a feeling the rug might get pulled shortly. COT data showed 90k longs on AUD for the Non-commercials and only 3k of them were short? WTF! My contrarian light immediately comes on but i'm not shorting yet even though it does seems the risk/reward favors the downside considering how far we've moved from support.

Patience .....
  • #419
  • Apr 6, 2011 9:38am Apr 6, 2011 9:38am
Off we go, into the wild blue yonder.

Flying high, into the sun.

Regards,
  • #420
  • Apr 6, 2011 9:40am Apr 6, 2011 9:40am
Quoting J.Giordano
Waiting 1.0450 To Short
Scalping, I hope.
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