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vsa with Malcolm

  • #18,161
  • Apr 5, 2011 7:46am Apr 5, 2011 7:46am
Quoting PipPipPip
high volume/ ND high from today - or close, might still be possible as a test before the drop for FOMC.
i see.. i saw bears all day along myself.
  • #18,162
  • Apr 5, 2011 7:54am Apr 5, 2011 7:54am
Quoting ivonivon
i see.. i saw bears all day along myself.
Yes. Intraday is still in the bear's side.

EDIT:
I also see FOMC a more powerful mentality of big traders that will move the market than the next hour. We'll see i guess...
  • #18,163
  • Apr 5, 2011 9:26am Apr 5, 2011 9:26am
I was looking an oportunity to buy on a trendline of AUD/CHF H4. I buy on the NS bar and putter the stop just below it 10 pips, and Im looking for 140 pips or maybe until the touch fo the uptrend channel of H4. Anyways here is the graph, have a nice week everybody!

[IMG]file:///C:/Users/Forex/AppData/Local/Temp/moz-screenshot.jpg[/IMG]http://img29.imageshack.us/img29/808/audchf.jpg

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Greetings, BeLikewater
  • #18,164
  • Edited 11:03am Apr 5, 2011 10:49am | Edited 11:03am
Quoting KinsaleForex
I took a test off that Cable trigger I posted a page or so back. Stop currently moved to break even with a target of 6255.

Edit - for those of you that are going to compare to my last chart, my internet went down so i had to reboot the program, some of the bars have repainted from the previous chart.
I just realised something, the chart posted in the quoted post is annotated wrong. I've an arrow pointing to the volume that is less than the previous two bars but it is actually the volume bar after this that is for the test.

As mentioned above, I had to close the program a couple of times because my internet cut out. I'd like to point out when I placed the order for the trade, the bar at 12:25 (GMT) that i've marked as a test did have volume less than the previous two bars. It was a textbook test.

Opening and closing the program several times caused it to be repainted.

Sorry for any confusion caused! See new chart attached;
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU 5min.png Size: 99 KB
  • #18,165
  • Apr 5, 2011 11:27am Apr 5, 2011 11:27am
FOMC minutes saw more buyers on that first dip, but significant selling into the upthrust right into Friday's high of 1.42450. Still holding my coveted longs, but would be surprised at a rise beyond here on spot, given the time of day. Expecting things to get knocked sideways; 4268 ain't going to get taken out in NY, although am looking for it in Asia or after a London test.

Got to be suspect & aware of this US debt ceiling thing and potential shutdown ... shutting down the biggest supposedly most important economic machine in the world? The solutions aren't simple - this is very much into uncharted territory and will be hugely impacting to the USD (if not resolved somehow midterm, long term.)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #18,166
  • Apr 5, 2011 11:31am Apr 5, 2011 11:31am
Quoting PipPipPip
looks like the eur will keep its rally until FOMC.
Wow, I am surprised that this pair is holding up, confirming on strong background, even though during FOMC.

This may very well see 1.4335 - 1.4450 area by the end of the week dead on.
  • #18,167
  • Apr 5, 2011 12:32pm Apr 5, 2011 12:32pm
If you look at the volume over the past 3 days an awful lot of money has exchanged hands between 1.4225 and .1.4215... Friday and Today both had points where there was more volume, but if you add it up over the past 3 days it's not even close... I think if we can get above.14230 and stay up there this bull run should be extremely strong as I'm sure many people have large positions near the highs and probably stop losses just above them to add fuel to the fire.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 3 Day points of Control.jpg Size: 190 KB
  • #18,168
  • Apr 5, 2011 1:42pm Apr 5, 2011 1:42pm
Quoting tgwhbb
Hey pres,

i was wondering, if EU breaks the low of this daily NS, does that negate it? I ask because i'm looking for a long around 4160 and I believe you posted about looking for a long around 4130 and wondering if you've changed your entry target based on the fact EU did not go down as far as you (and I) expected today?
Based on the 2 bar rule if we take out the high tommorow then the NS should still be valid. Today ended as a decently bullish bar on good volume with a close in the upper 20% of the range.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #18,169
  • Apr 5, 2011 2:34pm Apr 5, 2011 2:34pm
Quoting pipaday
If you look at the volume over the past 3 days an awful lot of money has exchanged hands between 1.4225 and .1.4215... Friday and Today both had points where there was more volume, but if you add it up over the past 3 days it's not even close... I think if we can get above.14230 and stay up there this bull run should be extremely strong as I'm sure many people have large positions near the highs and probably stop losses just above them to add fuel to the fire.
Hi pipaday,

Would you share your POC indicator for MT4 with us please? It's quite detail for me showing those POC fr multiple previous days. My market profile indi only shows today POC. Thanks in advance
  • #18,170
  • Apr 5, 2011 3:02pm Apr 5, 2011 3:02pm
Quoting pisanq
Hi pipaday,

Would you share your POC indicator for MT4 with us please? It's quite detail for me showing those POC fr multiple previous days. My market profile indi only shows today POC. Thanks in advance
Here is a link to it the indicator...Frankkn is the one who showed me where to get it.. I saw it on his.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=627
  • #18,171
  • Apr 5, 2011 5:42pm Apr 5, 2011 5:42pm
Quoting tgwhbb
for what it's worth, UJ looks like a sell to me, not a buy...last 2 30M upbars into previous top, on UHV, and the UT bar not breaking highs...

I'm not trading it as i've only started following it, but that's my point of view on it.
is anyone else seeing bearish volume on UJ...or am I just reading this completely wrong...is that bearishness just getting absorbed?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ M60 2011-04-05 at 8.38.53 PM.png Size: 96 KB
Change is the only constant
  • #18,172
  • Edited 6:24pm Apr 5, 2011 5:55pm | Edited 6:24pm
Quoting Beljevina
FOMC minutes saw more buyers on that first dip, but significant selling into the upthrust right into Friday's high of 1.42450. Still holding my coveted longs, but would be surprised at a rise beyond here on spot, given the time of day. Expecting things to get knocked sideways; 4268 ain't going to get taken out in NY, although am looking for it in Asia or after a London test.
Just an update & observation, towards the end of the 1st part of Asia session (it's just about 9pm EST). The dotted yellow vertical line is NY 5pm close.

That mini-shakeout (OK, prolly not really a SO) - in the most illiquid part of the trading day (5-6pm EST) - and it's successful test and hold at the POC is quite often a sign of higher prices to come - I look for these at this time of day (and the buying confirmation) and they quite often are successful trades.

A few more (orange arrow) buying tests confirm this, and voila, 35 pips later we're at/past the NY high. Might well pause here and retrace to 4230, but 4268 is likely to be approached during London.

Also quite often, where Asia starts, Asia ends.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #18,173
  • Edited 6:34pm Apr 5, 2011 6:21pm | Edited 6:34pm
Quoting tgwhbb
is anyone else seeing bearish volume on UJ...or am I just reading this completely wrong...is that bearishness just getting absorbed?
Sellers no doubt on the reaches/upthrusts, but not much and only enough to knock it sideways for a bit. IMHO the presence of bank/broker dependent tick volume for these strong pairs makes VSA for reversals not an easy undertaking. I see where you've circled, but I think we're missing significant parts of the picture. (Perhaps someone with eSignal GTIS could post an hourly view for comparisons sake) I have a theory that BoJ/Kampo is doing far more with the yen pairs than we are being led to believe. Or, someone is, and it just doesn't seem to be showing in the volume flows.

I am in awe of the progress EJ and GJ have been making; GJ has moved over 150+ pips since NY afternoon alone (8 hours, in low liquidity), and is up to the hugely relevant 139/139.2/139.4 point (almost) - come to think of it, that shouldn't be an easy barrier to cross (older GY traders will remember that level well) - but given the trend, it could well be meaningless.

Will be interesting to see UJ approach 85.8, the post Sept 2010 intervention attained high - it should get knocked downwards, strong upwards trend permitting.
  • #18,174
  • Edited 7:24pm Apr 5, 2011 7:06pm | Edited 7:24pm
though i am in a long position, what is driving this upthrust at this time of day? not that i don't want it to, but its too early! I really hate to sound greedy, but I want to enter more for longs....\

EDIT:

MY plan- not vsa based;
If price reaches 1.4335-1.4450 area before thursday's ECB meeting, I am closing before the meeting. if this is correct, this would suggest that these moves are all big players trading on speculation, when rate is not priced in yet, or maybe if it has been priced...
  • #18,175
  • Apr 5, 2011 11:35pm Apr 5, 2011 11:35pm
wow, watch the extreme battle going on on eur$ right now. (during the past 20-30minutes)
who's gonna win?
let's see
  • #18,176
  • Apr 6, 2011 12:05am Apr 6, 2011 12:05am
It will push higher to 1.4300 then sell
  • #18,177
  • Apr 6, 2011 1:36am Apr 6, 2011 1:36am
Spot the new trigger number on Cable
  • #18,178
  • Apr 6, 2011 2:46am Apr 6, 2011 2:46am
1.6286?
  • #18,179
  • Apr 6, 2011 2:56am Apr 6, 2011 2:56am
Saw this trade set up on GU. Did not trade this cos I saw it too late. Maybe will get another chance if it will test trigger line @6294?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 060411_gu_long.jpg Size: 139 KB
  • #18,180
  • Apr 6, 2011 2:59am Apr 6, 2011 2:59am
Quoting 1pipperhour
Saw this trade set up on GU. Did not trade this cos I saw it too late. Maybe will get another chance if it will test trigger line @6294?
same.

looking to short EURUSD.
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