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  • #381
  • Apr 4, 2011 9:08am Apr 4, 2011 9:08am
Quoting FX-Petra
Japan recovery from disater has not really even begun. They are going to need a lot of help. It dosen't seem unreasonable for a u/J rate of above 90.00. Maybe long term interventions are not very succesful, but as a retail trader I am sure not going to fight them---- Central Banks can send a currency hunderds of pips in just a few minutes. Maybe I will not be short yen.... but I damn sure am not going to get caught long!!!

Regards,
Retail traders are known for consistently being wrong. That's why we need to remain the elite 2% and not make bone head moves like what is going on here.
  • #382
  • Apr 4, 2011 9:42am Apr 4, 2011 9:42am
Quoting FX-Petra
Japan recovery from disater has not really even begun. They are going to need a lot of help. It dosen't seem unreasonable for a u/J rate of above 90.00. Maybe long term interventions are not very succesful, but as a retail trader I am sure not going to fight them---- Central Banks can send a currency hunderds of pips in just a few minutes. Maybe I will not be short yen.... but I damn sure am not going to get caught long!!!

Regards,
little steps a time, direction not so relevant imho, been scalping EU today, no trend lots of opportunities.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #383
  • Apr 4, 2011 10:02am Apr 4, 2011 10:02am
Quoting USD-Bear
little steps a time, direction not so relevant imho, been scalping EU today, no trend lots of opportunities.....
Attachment
Agreed. Been scalping G/U myself.....

Regards,
  • #384
  • Apr 4, 2011 8:57pm Apr 4, 2011 8:57pm
Shorting Aussie @ 0350 this morning.
closed @ 0320. +30 pips.

Aussie trading at 0326 30 mins after Trade balance Deficit @ A$205.
  • #385
  • Apr 4, 2011 9:54pm Apr 4, 2011 9:54pm
Looks to me like AUD/USD topped out. I have moved over and started shorting AUD/JPY. I will just sit on my long position in AUD/USD and collect swap. There is no such thing as a bad long position in AUD/USD, right? Maybe I can tell my friends my long was an investment, not a trade; or should I admit I was barking up the wrong tree? http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
  • #386
  • Apr 4, 2011 10:24pm Apr 4, 2011 10:24pm
Is the mighty aussie actually going to get a proper retrace started?

It's not getting anything from me, that's for sure. Curious to see where this ends up. If this is an actual retrace, I have a target to the south side of 1.025... but as stated, not pulling the trigger. This bloody currency only knows how to go one way.
  • #387
  • Apr 4, 2011 11:04pm Apr 4, 2011 11:04pm
Quoting RamsesII
channel
Looks like a lot of people are carrying this chart around and so far it is paying off. Considering the fact that Australia's Trade balance came in a surprise deficit.

Now let's see what happens when the cash rate comes out in 23mins.
  • #388
  • Apr 4, 2011 11:41pm Apr 4, 2011 11:41pm
Aussie updates:

RBA: Rate unchanged 4.75%.
S&P/ASX 200 4894.8 after the news (little / 8 points)
AU rate is now at $87.05 and Y1.3024 versus
pre-announcement levels of $1.3010 and Y87.08. It ranged from $1.0314 to
$1.0371 so far in Asia and from Y87.01 to Y87.39.

Main key:
Current monetary policy is appropriate and inflation is consistent with mid-term objectives.
Read full:
http://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2011/mr-11-06.html
  • #389
  • Apr 4, 2011 11:47pm Apr 4, 2011 11:47pm
Stay on side line.
15 mins trend:

Trend Index - Neutral
OB/OS Index - Extremely Oversold


EMA10 EMA20 EMA50 SMA100 SMA200
Signaling Sell 1.0336 ~ 1.036 except EMA5 neutral at 1.0329.
  • #390
  • Apr 4, 2011 11:57pm Apr 4, 2011 11:57pm
Quoting Venice
Is the mighty aussie actually going to get a proper retrace started?

It's not getting anything from me, that's for sure. Curious to see where this ends up. If this is an actual retrace, I have a target to the south side of 1.025... but as stated, not pulling the trigger. This bloody currency only knows how to go one way.
Would love to long near 0260 if given the chance. We shall see~~

Regards,
  • #391
  • Apr 5, 2011 12:07am Apr 5, 2011 12:07am
Short recommendation
====================================

Short at 1.0330
Put your Stoploss at 1.0420
Use Trailing Stop 85 Pips

Thats my recommendation,doesnt mean i am will correct,always play with SL & risk only 2% from your account
  • #392
  • Edited 6:58am Apr 5, 2011 5:19am | Edited 6:58am
If you notice my post before ~ China has Raise the bank rate by 25 points. This is the 4th time.

Some effect on Aussie - breaking 1.0303 support. Currently trade @ 1.0290.

Testing small 0.01 - Long @ 1.0296 / TP 1.0330 with no SL.
  • #393
  • Apr 5, 2011 5:50am Apr 5, 2011 5:50am
Aussie Just Warmed up for the next fall ~ like human,He need take a Big Breath first before for a deep diving
  • #394
  • Apr 5, 2011 6:58am Apr 5, 2011 6:58am
Quoting FX-Petra
Would love to long near 0260 if given the chance. We shall see~~

Regards,
Hi Petra - did you long after china rake hike news and the pair break the support down to 0291?
  • #395
  • Apr 5, 2011 7:54am Apr 5, 2011 7:54am
Quoting evelee8
Hi Petra - did you long after china rake hike news and the pair break the support down to 0291?

Missed my entry @ 0270. Sleeping costs money--- I guess nothing in life is free!! Waiting for another dip....

Regards,
  • #396
  • Apr 5, 2011 7:58am Apr 5, 2011 7:58am
Quoting FX-Petra
Missed my entry @ 0270. Sleeping costs money--- I guess nothing in life is free!! Waiting for another dip....

Regards,
erm - what time is your place ?
here 9pm now.
the news was released ard 6pm..
  • #397
  • Apr 5, 2011 8:09am Apr 5, 2011 8:09am
Quoting evelee8
erm - what time is your place ?
here 9pm now.
the news was released ard 6pm..
CST-- USA
  • #398
  • Apr 5, 2011 8:11am Apr 5, 2011 8:11am
Quoting FX-Petra
closed my 2 lots from 4010 @ 0365. Chicken, yes. But 55 pips short profit on this pair has been a miricale latlely... So I am taking it! If we do get a drop below 0300, I'll be looking to reload long.

***Question**** retail postioning in G/Y shows 92% of traders are short. Why would this be when g-7 has said they are going to weaken the yen to aid Japan in their recovery? I am missing something, any help would be appreciatied. Thanks

Regards,
As I said, Short a yen pair just does not make a lot of sense. G/Y shorts getting their hind parts burned this morning.

Regards,
  • #399
  • Apr 5, 2011 9:54am Apr 5, 2011 9:54am
Will the necline hold? I'm betting it will.
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  • #400
  • Apr 5, 2011 10:29am Apr 5, 2011 10:29am
I'm at work right now but the 4hr chart had a realll nice divergence on it. I'm short this pair
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