Technical Analysis Fallacy

Quoting MaMood

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How do you do that - 36 hours, Gro?
The only thing I know for sure is,
that my days are always 12 hours too short ...

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Quoting hcong168

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Full time trading is not something to be taken likely; even if you have good performance trading part time. There are a few issues that one need to tackle, some of them are:

1. You income is not fixed, but expenses are there whether you have a good trading month/week or not. Meeting expenses when you are on a rough patch trading is adding oil to fire, and can create downward spiral.

2. Once you are "unemployed", you loss all the benefits that that full time employee enjoys - things like PAID leave, allowance, insurance, medical etc....

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Quoting FTI

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Hi ALL,

before we go on, I think I should mention this.

A long time ago.
Mr. Welles Wilder taught me this.

This is not new.It was old when the Phoenicians were trading with the Romans and the Greek Philosopers cornered the olive oil market. This is the concept.

The percentage gain it takes to recover a loss increases geomatrically with losses.

The concept is as the following table

% Loss intial capital % profit required to Recover
5-----------------------5.3
10----------------------11.1
15----------------------17.6
20----------------------25
25----------------------33.3
30----------------------42.9
35----------------------53.8
40----------------------66.7
45----------------------81.8
50----------------------100
55----------------------122
60----------------------150
65----------------------186
70----------------------233
75----------------------300
80----------------------400
85----------------------567
90----------------------900

The % gain required to to come back to balance (break even) will increase gemetrically with your losses.
if you loss 20% of your capital. you will have to make 25% to come back to breakeven.
However if you lose 50% of your capital, you have to make 100% to come back to break even.
So please be careful with your trading.

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No, no,no, Do not try to lessen the odds of getting killed. Instead you must have the mindset to do whatever it takes to WIN. Not having it kill you. The negativity must be removed from the mindset in totality lest it allows you to create it. But of course with strong MM in play likelihood of being killed should be negligible. Although there is still that possibility, The mindset must not yield to such thinking.

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Quoting MaMood

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Good Morning Vick!

Hope you are doing well.
All the best with your full time trading again.

Seems the possibility of a TAF Traders Network is closer, than I was expecting.

Have to make breakfast for my little son now.
Will be back, when he has left for Kindergarten in 1.5 hours or so ...

CU,
Niels

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Quoting piccolo

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A very good post. I like the "graduating" idea, it might remove some false hope.. like "I am doing bad because I have a job now BUT WHEN I BECAME A FULL TIME TRADER I WILL MAKE MIL$$$$$$" or something like that.

The pressure quadruples when you don't have regular income.

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Quoting piccolo

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TAF Traders Network, I like the sound of it.

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Quoting Gro

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Hope is always false!
But even if you have the training and results, you must not forget the strict conditions for waging war.
I not divided my resources but I have divided the attention of "babysitting" = "deep dark hole".

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Quoting MaMood

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So I should spell it this way?

Tough Traders Network

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Quoting maheswara

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true , learning the basics , finding ur niche , those can be done part time

but mastering it takes a hell of practice , some said 10k hrs ? so even if u trade 10hrs a day it will still take years

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Quoting imjscn

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Hello Vick,
Currently Price is high, Jobs are tough, it cheaper to choose a lower cost of life style/location and trading, than hunting for another job unless the new job is great.

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Quoting imjscn

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As a full time trader, I think the first thing you might need to do is to split your capital into several parts. I burn all my capital at the beginning 3 years when I didn't really know how to trade. Now I know how, but no gas.

Every trader knows not to risk x% of something. I wasn't stupid. But in practise, being employed and unemployed, the feeling is different. Being used to a monthly salary, your feeling is "later I will add some...",

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Quoting imjscn

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you need cap to recover cap. --So, maybe -- split cap into 1 1 2 ---a skew, I wish I had done this.

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Quoting hcong168

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Full time trading is not something to be taken likely; even if you have good performance trading part time. There are a few issues that one need to tackle, some of them are:

1. You income is not fixed, but expenses are there whether you have a good trading month/week or not. Meeting expenses when you are on a rough patch trading is adding oil to fire, and can create downward spiral.

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2. Once you are "unemployed", you loss all the benefits that that full time employee enjoys - things like PAID leave, allowance, insurance, medical etc.

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3. To add to the above problem, you generally loss proof of income that enable you to get housing and other loans. I am not sure how severe it is in you context/country, but in sg, getting a house/flat without loan is nearly impossible.

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I read years ago Guppy suggestion on full time trading: graduating. Meaning one should start with part time trading, and trading result is good and sustainable over years, till part time trading profit is more than what your full time job is paying you, then consider trading full time. Otherwise, hang on to a job, even it is a part time job. The certainty of weekly/monthly income is something not to forgo lightly.

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Of course it is obvious that if your trading income is VERY much more than your current employment income, then all the above are not of concern.

Just my 2 cents.

Quoting piccolo

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Gro, there is no excuse for leaving your babies unattended. It has been said over and over again.

It very much affects your sleep and job performance.

It is far better to bite the bullet and go to sleep in peace than to wake up worried and bite the tank!

I know from experience that sometimes the only way to learn is to try it on your own skin. Level up.

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Quoting indianguyinny24

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Can you sit 10 min with eyes closed ?

Seems like too much is going in your head.


V

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Quoting imjscn

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They are finished.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationwo...,2697428.story

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth...250664111.html

The End

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-sto...5875-23033940/

fti's pump failed now very weak and resting., but he's monitoring his usj positions. He said need focus, no disturb.

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Quoting fullperson

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feels like topping on the uj, may be helpful I guess. Fti must have huge reserves.

The fishing scare must have a very demoralizing culture effect. The land you once depend on is now unlivable...Any idea when the radiation will spill into US? Time to stock up on water. Do they teach how to survive radiation in scouts?

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Quoting imjscn

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oh fti said yes, "Be Prepared", but jesus knows even more. read matthew chapter 24 verse 14 to 27

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Quoting piccolo

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A very good post...
The pressure quadruples when you don't have regular income.

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Quoting piccolo

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TAF Traders Network, I like the sound of it.

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Quoting MaMood

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So I should spell it this way?
Tough Traders Network

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Quoting FX Plankton

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Dear Gart,
I think that the problem with R/R (TP/SL) is the Probability at short Time Frames (TF) or Time Scale (TS).
As you reduce the TS (in your example is seconds), the Probability to hit the target is reduced (due to the price oscillations - e.g. imagine 2D Brownian motion - the longer you stay the higher the probability to hit a point - the converse, your case, applies too).
So, although Theoretically possible in your case, it does not have much appeal to have RR, what has shown to FTI that works is the 5 min TF.
As I said, I am a newbie in...

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