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  • #3,461
  • Mar 30, 2011 5:21pm Mar 30, 2011 5:21pm
Quoting lovejoy80
GCHF was just a good technical setup in itself...I wouldn't care what ECHF and UCHF were doing...if they were both at resistance then even better but it woulnd't be a deciding factor in whether I took the GCHF setup or not.

ECAD was the same...a good technical setup...but I noticed that EAUD was at strong support too, GAUD was at a double bottom and GCAD was at daily support...hence expecting a bounce in GBP and EUR against CAD and AUD...I know EUR and GBP will move together at times and that the path of least resistance on EG was long which...
Thanks LJ, makes total sense. Hope I can utilize this stuff soon.. need to study up a bit more. Cheers
  • #3,462
  • Mar 30, 2011 5:27pm Mar 30, 2011 5:27pm
Quoting Majestic12
Thanks so much, will continue on with the mindset aspects and try and focus more of my energy in those areas - i know it will take time though.

What i saw on the gold trade was a powerful breakout and pullback to a daily level which price had reacted to very strong in the past. There was also (inbetween) 50-60% conf so at the time it looked good to me. From a daily perspective things don't look that rosy though. I guess i was trying to be aggressive and catch a nice move upwards after price bounced from the top of the range.
The two red flags for me on the Gold trade were:

1. It was not a major swing i.e. where your fibs are drawn from.
2. Price came back after the breakout almost immediately...I find it much more reliable to trade the touch back to this area when price has moved away and stayed away from this area for a 'while'.
  • #3,463
  • Mar 30, 2011 6:04pm Mar 30, 2011 6:04pm
Here's an example of trade I'd consider, n/u short. For additional confluence, would I look at perhaps n/j, and then beyond that perhaps a/u and a/j? Would this n/j provide any additional confluence? Looking at the aud pairs, the path of least resistance seems to be upwards, so nothing there and perhaps negative, but then looking at a/n, the path of least resistance seems to be upwards also, and sitting on minor s/r. So despite the strengths of the correlated pair, aud, would this still be adding any confluence? Ahhh, I feel sorry for you trying to answer this

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  • #3,464
  • Mar 30, 2011 6:22pm Mar 30, 2011 6:22pm
Quoting Jlr
Here's an example of trade I'd consider, n/u short. For additional confluence, would I look at perhaps n/j, and then beyond that perhaps a/u and a/j? Would this n/j provide any additional confluence? Looking at the aud pairs, the path of least resistance seems to be upwards, so nothing there and perhaps negative, but then looking at a/n, the path of least resistance seems to be upwards also, and sitting on minor s/r. So despite the strengths of the correlated pair, aud, would this still be adding any confluence? Ahhh, I feel sorry for you trying...
Crikey, it's getting too late here to be looking so closely at charts!

The NU setup was a good one, not a pair I look at too often but it reacted well at that area on the 4HR.

Personally I woulnt be looking at yens too much for confluence as the yen is just very weak across the board, I'd prefer to look at other USD pairs to see if they are lining up at resistance...say AU was at strong resistance and AUDNZD was at strong resistance that would tell you to expect NZD to be stronger than AUD and that AU provides additional confluence to the NU setup.

But I would recommend you only look to use correlations as supporting confluence to setups you would take by itself as it gets quite difficult and discretionary going further than that...so just find the techical setups you like and look to see if there is any supporting confluence on correlations with the base currency of other FX pairs (i.e. USD in this case). You can go further and look at USDX in relevant cases and then guages of risk sentiment like YM too.
  • #3,465
  • Mar 30, 2011 8:20pm Mar 30, 2011 8:20pm
.say AU was at strong resistance and AUDNZD was at strong resistance that would tell you to expect NZD to be stronger than AUD and that AU provides additional confluence to the NU setup.

Sorry, not quite following you here. If au was also at a strong resistance, just as nu was, I can see how that provides extra confluence for nu short. If aud/nzd was at a strong resistance too, I can see we can expect aud to be weaker then nzd. So would that mean, while I take a n/u short with additional confluence from a/u helping, I'd still expect the aud short to be better then the nzd short? Hope that makes sense.
Right now I am basically just trading straight confluence. I see some nice confluence trades not work out, and I am hoping I can find some way to be able to pass on all of my losers (obviously).
  • #3,466
  • Mar 31, 2011 12:41am Mar 31, 2011 12:41am
Quoting Jlr
.say AU was at strong resistance and AUDNZD was at strong resistance that would tell you to expect NZD to be stronger than AUD and that AU provides additional confluence to the NU setup.

Sorry, not quite following you here. If au was also at a strong resistance, just as nu was, I can see how that provides extra confluence for nu short. If aud/nzd was at a strong resistance too, I can see we can expect aud to be weaker then nzd. So would that mean, while I take a n/u short with additional confluence from a/u helping, I'd still expect the...
Well no if aud/nzd was at resistance you'd expect NZD to be stronger than NU and thus for the NU setup to [potentially be a good one as you'd be expecting AU to fall and NU to fall and with AUD/NZD at resistance NU to fall faster than AU.

If you post some of the ones that didn't work out, I'll try and find some common points to think about that might help...of course taking some losers is part of the business.
  • #3,467
  • Mar 31, 2011 12:21pm Mar 31, 2011 12:21pm
Been a busy morning and will be a busy afternoon for me at work.

Just checking in, love this thread.

The only possible trade I saw was shorting the USDCHF based on the daily pin bar into the FTA of about .9140.

But since this pair was recently uptrending, and the pin bar more looked like a pull back to the up trend, I decided against it. I was wrong in my decision, but that is part of trading.

I was tempted to go long at around .9140, but didn't want to fight such a strong down trend and a Daily Pin Bar.

So no trades for me today. I just didn't spot anything on the major pairs (being an American I do not trade Futures due to the cost and CFD's are not legal here).
  • #3,468
  • Mar 31, 2011 12:59pm Mar 31, 2011 12:59pm
....And where people were exiting from that daily pin looked to be a great long opportunity. Unfortunately i havn't mastered correct entry let alone exit and USDCHF missed me by a pip.

Thoughts i had today on entry were

a. Really clean highly confluenced levels such as this should be entered at the first area of the confluence which in this case would be the 50% fib - This would have ensured entry.

b. Even cleaner levels where price is trending should be entered 3 pips above the level to ensure entry if poss

c. In the case of levels where there should be lots of orders but price has nearly hit the level - it may be a better idea to move entry to an area a bit higher (for shorts) such as the most recent 4hourly/daily close or previous 4hourly/daily spike - A good' example of this could be the GBPCHF trade yesterday

That must be about 6-7 good trades i've missed in the last few weeks on entry so i think experience is telling me to be more aggressive with them. What do you think of the points i made above LJ?

On a side note i finished my first calender month up 2R which is not bad considering in the first two weeks i made 32 trades which was way to many for my skill level!!!!

I made heaps of mistakes (and i mean the inexcusable type that now will be easy to avoid) so i don't think i finished off too bad. Hoping the journal will help me out with those though.
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  • #3,469
  • Apr 4, 2011 10:27am Apr 4, 2011 10:27am
Quoting unlv_tj
Been a busy morning and will be a busy afternoon for me at work.

Just checking in, love this thread.

The only possible trade I saw was shorting the USDCHF based on the daily pin bar into the FTA of about .9140.

But since this pair was recently uptrending, and the pin bar more looked like a pull back to the up trend, I decided against it....
Some conflicting statements there...you didnt short the daily pin because of the recent uptrend and you didnt go long at the touch trade setup because of the longer term trend is down and because of the daily pin. Do you think maybe you are over analysing things too much?

Both setups for me were easy trades...daily pin down to the confuenced area, take profit and reverse at the confluence of daily ppz+fibs+TL for a long then add another after the 4HR BUOB....no surprise where price reversed either looking at the daily TF.
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  • #3,470
  • Apr 4, 2011 10:31am Apr 4, 2011 10:31am
Quoting Majestic12
....And where people were exiting from that daily pin looked to be a great long opportunity. Unfortunately i havn't mastered correct entry let alone exit and USDCHF missed me by a pip.

Thoughts i had today on entry were

a. Really clean highly confluenced levels such as this should be entered at the first area of the confluence which in this case would be the 50% fib - This would have ensured entry.

b. Even cleaner levels where price is trending should be entered 3 pips above the level to ensure entry if poss

c. In the case of levels where there...
Are you saying you are missing trades because your entry has been too conservative? I always put my entry orders a few pips above the confluenced area for a long and few pips below for a short...no point getting too greedy and missing out on the move for the sake of a few pips.
  • #3,471
  • Apr 4, 2011 10:36am Apr 4, 2011 10:36am
I don't like trading Monday's low momentum, choppy price moves and just normally a really dull day, however this one caught my eye this morning...ucad was looking over-extended and I'd marked up some previous PPZ's on the 4HR from when price had reached this low previously.

Price was showing big divergence so I was just waiting for any sign and reason to go long as it was looking very much like a bottom and the 2HR BUOB was the reason I needed to jump in long.

It's not a trade the pure PA traders would take, but once you've been watching chart for a long time you get a 'feel' for certain price movements.

It's at a confluenced area now...too late in the day for me to want to short, so some profit booked on the long and trailing with the remaining position.
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  • #3,472
  • Apr 4, 2011 10:48am Apr 4, 2011 10:48am
I'm short Mark and i must say i really do not like being on the other side of your trade.
  • #3,473
  • Apr 4, 2011 11:03am Apr 4, 2011 11:03am
Quoting Majestic12
I'm short Mark and i must say i really do not like being on the other side of your trade.
Haha. I would have considered a short there too but for the time of day...winding down for the day now, so thought I might as well leave some of my trade on the table as you never know, we could have hit a bottom etc...I've banked some nice profit and SL is above BE on the remaining part so no harm to see what it might do.

All you gotta be concerned about is taking positions that fit with your rules...dont worry about my trades...I can't move the market with my trade volume quite yet
  • #3,474
  • Apr 4, 2011 12:06pm Apr 4, 2011 12:06pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Some conflicting statements there...you didnt short the daily pin because of the recent uptrend and you didnt go long at the touch trade setup because of the longer term trend is down and because of the daily pin. Do you think maybe you are over analysing things too much?

Both setups for me were easy trades...daily pin down to the confuenced area, take profit and reverse at the confluence of daily ppz+fibs+TL for a long then add another after the 4HR BUOB....no surprise where price reversed either looking at the daily TF.
Thank you so much LJ. Yes, and my personalit is to over analyze EVERYTHING. Thank you, thank you. I didn't know what to think about my decision, I am so glad that you responded. I am working through a lot of things pyschologically, and your post is so helpful.

Working on my pyschology, trading, it all combined, it has even changed my personality. It has given me a confidence I so badly needed years ago.

Learning to trade is not just a means to financial indepenence, it will give me a shot at having any life at all. Thank you for all your help here.

One question. On your RSI, is it basically the same settings RyanMCD used? I have the MACD, but I am starting to think the MACD is better for long term charts (1D and up) and the RSI is better for shorter term charts (4H and down).
  • #3,475
  • Apr 4, 2011 3:53pm Apr 4, 2011 3:53pm
Quoting unlv_tj
Thank you so much LJ....
Yeah psychology is a b*tch, but it is the one hurdle if overcome or managed clears the path for a succesfull trading career IMO. It's a long tough old struggle for some (it was hell for me at times) but once you overcome the hurdles you'll never look back.

I've always used RSI(6) and I set it to 'high' or 'low' depending on wheher I'm looking for divergence at a high or low...i.e. I use the wick extremes compared to either high or low RSI(6) etc. I'm think I just found it by myself rather than from RyanMCD, but I have read some of his posts before so maybe, I dunno.

I've never used MACD though for divergence, its not a big part of my trading but it's handy in the right siutation.
  • #3,476
  • Apr 4, 2011 6:08pm Apr 4, 2011 6:08pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Haha. I would have considered a short there too but for the time of day...
My thinking was that UCAD had been on a bit of a rally and i wasn't really worried about the time of day as Europe session was just closing so if anything there could probably be some profit taking. Do you ever think about profit taking at certain times of day for touch trades or do you just generally not trade most of the majors after 5pm on a Monday - what about the other days?
  • #3,477
  • Apr 5, 2011 1:58am Apr 5, 2011 1:58am
Quoting Majestic12
My thinking was that UCAD had been on a bit of a rally and i wasn't really worried about the time of day as Europe session was just closing so if anything there could probably be some profit taking. Do you ever think about profit taking at certain times of day for touch trades or do you just generally not trade most of the majors after 5pm on a Monday - what about the other days?
That is a good observation...when we approach the end of of European session, especially on a low momentum day like Monday you have a high chance of areas like that on UCAD holding temporarily as price simple wont have the momentum to overcome major PPZ's.

For me personallyI dont normally take many trades past NY lunch time due to the lack of momentum that typically follows, plus I dont always want to be watching my charts in the evening.
  • #3,478
  • Apr 5, 2011 9:36am Apr 5, 2011 9:36am
Quoting lovejoy80
That is a good observation...when we approach the end of of European session, especially on a low momentum day like Monday you have a high chance...
Thanks for the info LJ. Just missed two trades i wanted to take today. The EU i had the right area but missed entry by half a pip - if you were going to take this trade would your entry have been 3 pips above the sub level RN? mine was 1 pip above this area. The silver trade missed by a much wider margin as i was looking for the 50% confluence. I have noticed some experienced traders mention that the 38 fib works better on some commodities - especially oil but the 50% area looked a better bet to me.
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  • #3,479
  • Apr 5, 2011 4:50pm Apr 5, 2011 4:50pm
I had the EURUSD area marked at 1.4150 for a long entry, and then backed out when it looked like nothing was going to move today. Then around noon NY time everything took off.

I did have a successful short on the USDCAD from .9680 down and got out at 1R at .9640. I again didn't got for a runner thinking that the markets were just not moving today, and instead the markets just moved later in the day than I expected.
  • #3,480
  • Apr 6, 2011 3:37am Apr 6, 2011 3:37am
Quoting Majestic12
Thanks for the info LJ. Just missed two trades i wanted to take today. The EU i had the right area but missed entry by half a pip - if you were going to take this trade would your entry have been 3 pips above the sub level RN? mine was 1 pip above this area. The silver trade missed by a much wider margin as i was looking for the 50% confluence. I have noticed some experienced traders mention that the 38 fib works better on some commodities - especially oil but the 50% area looked a better bet to me.
I would have identified that the bar lows marked were the top of the PPZ area i.e. 1.4153 and thus my order would have been around 1.4155+spread.
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