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vsa with Malcolm

  • #18,041
  • Apr 2, 2011 10:39am Apr 2, 2011 10:39am
fxsol live

Quoting pipon
Almost the same ! What is your Vol feed ??
  • #18,042
  • Apr 2, 2011 10:54am Apr 2, 2011 10:54am
Quoting malcolmb14
no it is good and works for you ... but do not forget some just getting into this need to have things as simple as possible. even to the point of do not worry if the bar is a test or no supply , but understand what it means in the context of the price action
True enough I guess it is the anylist in me... Might be why my first marriage ended in divorce (well that and she was crazy) LOL. I love knowing why the market does what it does and picking apart the charts. Will try and simplify a bit in my future posts.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #18,043
  • Edited 11:55am Apr 2, 2011 11:53am | Edited 11:55am
Quoting pres78
True enough I guess it is the anylist in me... Might be why my first marriage ended in divorce (well that and she was crazy) LOL. I love knowing why the market does what it does and picking apart the charts. Will try and simplify a bit in my future posts.
Hi pres, please don`t simplify too much.... . Actually this is by far the best thread I have ever read ( and I read a lot ) & having experienced traders like HG, Dr G or Scrat show VSA with HLC bar charts and you and MalcomB with candlestick charts make it much easier to understand.

Based on your GU 5min chart with explanations, there is one bar I don`t understand. The lower volume might have made me doubt if a strong push higher is really the intention right at that moment - I would then have waited too long and missed the boat.

Sorry for any most basic newbie questions...



___________
michael
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Be like water.
  • #18,044
  • Apr 2, 2011 12:05pm Apr 2, 2011 12:05pm
Quoting amletit
..Could that last low spread and low volume bar be considered as a "test"? It quite confused me...
Yes it is a test. It is a hidden test.

We need to think of the logic here and only need look at the prior interval. As Pres has correctly identified it, this interval is No Selling Pressure.

If the market is moving down with little selling pressure or selling enthusiasm, what is the logical thing for the BBs to do? Figure out what the actual path of least resistance is. In other words, test.

If the market is weak then sellers will appear and the previous interval was simply a period of low activity (maybe the BBs were all reading this thread at the time ).

Unfortunately, the test bar/candle does not make a lower low or close lower as we like to see. It does close in the middle of the range but the BBs can still see no sellers are present.

Now it is possible to have NDs in an up trend, especially ones that do not confirm with the next bar/candle down. But in this case, if you take the previous bar into account then the logical conclusion is a test.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #18,045
  • Apr 2, 2011 12:12pm Apr 2, 2011 12:12pm
Quoting msmarple
Hi pres, please don`t simplify too much.... . Actually this is by far the best thread I have ever read ( and I read a lot ) & having experienced traders like HG, Dr G or Scrat show VSA with HLC bar charts and you and MalcomB with candlestick charts make it much easier to understand.

Based on your GU 5min chart with explanations, there is one bar I don`t understand. The lower volume might have made me doubt if a strong push higher is really the intention right at that moment - I would then have waited too long and missed...
See HG's post right below yours... I didn't look at this as a test (just a ND which mean't nothing in the grand scheme as strength was already well confirmed and it was nothing more to me than an upbar after that SOS no selling pressure bar) but in fact it is a hidden test... low at the close of the no selling pressure bar, no volume etc... Not a normal, pretty easy to spot basic test but a test none the less... This ND/test was in fact just confirming what the no sellling pressure bar was telling us... long trades it is.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #18,046
  • Apr 2, 2011 12:26pm Apr 2, 2011 12:26pm
The last post was long and it was late, so I ended without finishing a thought.

The post focused on squats but there was something else going on as well...

Tom Williams, the father of VSA, has said that testing is the most important of all the low volume indications in VSA. I, like Seb M, go one step further and say tests are the most prevalent of all the low volume indications in VSA. Rather than indications, however, they should be thought of as actions. Simply put, the market is always testing. It is testing in an up trend. It is testing in a sideways market. And it is testing in a down trend.

In a down trend, these test will usually fail (after all the trend is down). Sometimes they will not fail but we will see no result from a test-weakness. Still other times, they will be successful and result in slight up moves that serves to bring in more sellers.

Most people fail to understand this concept, yet it is so important.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #18,047
  • Apr 2, 2011 12:31pm Apr 2, 2011 12:31pm
Quoting malcolmb14
pres analysis was good but overly done...

keep it simple .. vsa does not have to be complicated. the more you complicate it the more you think you see things that do not exist. the 5 min chart is not the best to trade off imho even though some do well off it ... 10 and 15 min are my favs for intraday and 30 min / 2 hour and 8 hr for longer term

10 min gu very easy

vertical blue lines
1) stopping
2) testing of stopping volume level with uh volume
3) test on a rising market with strength in background .. and safe entry
Attachment ...
Malc,

Can you explain how bar 2 is a test of the stopping volume when it makes and closes lower etc... how would one know it was a test? Is it after the next bar was up or the high of it was taken out?
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #18,048
  • Apr 2, 2011 2:15pm Apr 2, 2011 2:15pm
One reason that you must consider background and other time frames is that sometimes what does not appear clear on one time frame will appear clear as day on others. If you consider the 15 min charts of Gu on friday then you should only have been looking for buys on tests based on the strength we saw on the 15 min after nfp and ignored any signs of weakness on a 5min as these would only confuse you. There background was also clear strength we saw at 1.6020 on thursday the day before nfp...this set up the friday trade

I have said this many times .... vsa is not one bar .. it is background and several bars

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Quoting msmarple
Hi pres, please don`t simplify too much.... . Actually this is by far the best thread I have ever read ( and I read a lot ) & having experienced traders like HG, Dr G or Scrat show VSA with HLC bar charts and you and MalcomB with candlestick charts make it much easier to understand.

Based on your GU 5min chart with explanations, there is one bar I don`t understand. The lower volume might have made me doubt if a strong push higher is really the intention right at that moment - I would then have waited too long and missed...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #18,049
  • Apr 2, 2011 2:21pm Apr 2, 2011 2:21pm
The bar i mentioned I called a test as the pros were probing the area just under the stopping volume bar .... so they were testing for selling interest under these levels and when none turned up they felt safe to buy and take gu up for the session

ideal entry monday in London would be a SOS at the 1.6080 support area just under Fridays close , with a potential target of 1.6210 , however something bothering me is the fact that we did not test Thursdays highs , even though strength was there.



Quoting pres78
Malc,

Can you explain how bar 2 is a test of the stopping volume when it makes and closes lower etc... how would one know it was a test? Is it after the next bar was up or the high of it was taken out?
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #18,050
  • Apr 2, 2011 2:24pm Apr 2, 2011 2:24pm
Quoting malcolmb14
The bar i mentioned I called a test as the pros were probing the area just under the stopping volume bar .... so they were testing for selling interest under these levels and when none turned up they felt safe to buy and take gu up for the session

ideal entry monday in London would be a SOS at the 1.6080 support area just under Fridays close , with a potential target of 1.6210 , however something bothering me is the fact that we did not test Thursdays highs , even though strength was there.
Ah yes I see...

Yes GU strength and overall carry through fell somewhat short in comparison to EU off those SO's.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #18,051
  • Apr 2, 2011 5:00pm Apr 2, 2011 5:00pm
It's no secret that I don't like a lot of lines on my charts, So my natural inclination is to get rid of them as soon as possible. There are some special circumstances but for the most part I get rid of them when:

* Another trigger bar forms
* They have triggered an entry
* End of Day

Take a look at the chart below.

We can "walk" through the process. The first trigger is created at the close of the Herd bar. Three intervals later, there is another Herd bar that forms so we move the trigger level up to the close of this bar. If you caught the NS entry for the long then the trigger 1 would have been "nullified". Although it makes a good stop level.

So now trigger 2 is the only trigger line on the chart. Two intervals later we get an Ultra High Volume bar that closes in the middle of its range. This is supply and sets up our new trigger (3) level. As it turns out, the true trigger level is going to be the high of this bar (trigger 3'), not the close.

A simple thing to do is place the trigger on the close as we assume this to be the key level. If price is trading near the high or above it, place another trigger line at that level. So you basically have two triggers for the bar in place- trigger 3 and trigger 3'.

The trigger level will then be moved to trigger 4 after it appears. If you got into a short then it would have already disappeared. But again, you could still use that level for stops.

I used purple for the current trigger level and grey for the others to emphasize that at the right edge of the chart, there is actually only 1 line on the chart.

This is how I do it, but I await Gavin's book for more details on the proper way to do so.
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #18,052
  • Apr 2, 2011 8:23pm Apr 2, 2011 8:23pm
We don't talk a lot about the mental side of trading in this thread, but I thought I would throw these out there for anyone who is interested. These come from Mohan of Daytradersaction.

1. " As a trader, I establish a straight mental and neurological path to continuous perfectly executed and managed trades. Each trade is an education towards perfecting the trading art, releasing tension and achieving youth and vigor".

2. " I totally understand that consistency is more important than being 'right'. Having the desire to be 'right' is for amateurs and making money constantly is what the real professionals do. I am striving to be a real pro everyday by focusing on what is proven to really work-- a method that produces steady profits while protecting me if I am wrong".

3. "I allow myself to access my intuition by releasing myself from the desire to be 'right' in the markets, and instead focus on what the market is telling me now in relation to my position and my clear analysis -- no matter what my position is."
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #18,053
  • Apr 3, 2011 6:57am Apr 3, 2011 6:57am
I'm subscribed to Todd Krueger's weekly video, he's having computer problems at the moment so no new videos for a couple of weeks but sent this video on from Jan 2010, based on EU futures and spot, thought i'd share for those not subscribed.

http://lib.store.yahoo.net/lib/yhst-...CVN011610.html
  • #18,054
  • Apr 3, 2011 8:16am Apr 3, 2011 8:16am
Quoting KinsaleForex
I'm subscribed to Todd Krueger's weekly video, he's having computer problems at the moment so no new videos for a couple of weeks but sent this video on from Jan 2010, based on EU futures and spot, thought i'd share for those not subscribed.

http://lib.store.yahoo.net/lib/yhst-...CVN011610.html

Interesting video... thanks for the post Liam.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #18,055
  • Apr 3, 2011 9:44am Apr 3, 2011 9:44am
i am expecting that 1,4480 area to be tested in the coming week ... that is the areas he is talking about in the video and was my target for march that was not meet .... months range was a little lower than normal

Quoting KinsaleForex
I'm subscribed to Todd Krueger's weekly video, he's having computer problems at the moment so no new videos for a couple of weeks but sent this video on from Jan 2010, based on EU futures and spot, thought i'd share for those not subscribed.

http://lib.store.yahoo.net/lib/yhst-...CVN011610.html
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #18,056
  • Apr 3, 2011 12:41pm Apr 3, 2011 12:41pm
Great thread this thanks very much.

Learning from it everyday (and alot of back reading).

Hope to have an input too once I've found my feet.

A
  • #18,057
  • Apr 3, 2011 3:32pm Apr 3, 2011 3:32pm
I am looking for Monday to be a downday small range around 100 pips into 4130, closing back above 4180 as a NS.

Tuesday and Thursday will be some big moving days IMHO as we have ISM-PMI, FOMC statement and EU rate announcement respectively.

Looking for a move into 4430-4480 by the end of the week barring no major surprises.

Mostly flat accross the board as I closed all trades on Friday with the excpetion of 1 from 4065. Ready to go either way as the charts will lead the way.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #18,058
  • Apr 3, 2011 3:51pm Apr 3, 2011 3:51pm
Quoting malcolmb14
One reason that you must consider background and other time frames is that sometimes what does not appear clear on one time frame will appear clear as day on others. If you consider the 15 min charts of Gu on friday then you should only have been looking for buys on tests based on the strength we saw on the 15 min after nfp and ignored any signs of weakness on a 5min as these would only confuse you. There background was also clear strength we saw at 1.6020 on thursday the day before nfp...this set up the friday trade

I have said this many times...
Thank you. This is also one of the main themes of your teaching - going through many posts during the weekend.

What I can state as well is that many single bars and tests did not make any sense before VSA. There is this supply and demand teaching ( sam seiden ) as a comparison, but with VSA I can pinpoint the intentions of SM much more precise. Not just horizontal levels, but cycles of accumulation and distribution ( eg Sonofin`s charts on usdchf and now on GJ ).

@ Liam, thanks for the video !



__________
michael
Be like water.
  • #18,059
  • Apr 3, 2011 3:56pm Apr 3, 2011 3:56pm
So as we can see EU is still stuck in the range caused by the battle of the Hawks spewing rate hikes and "oh it will all be OK" and "ah shucks the economy is actually improving not getting worse"... "bailout, what's that?"...

Friday set us up with a real nice looking daily bar giving views that the bulls may finally take out that upper range supply zone... I have also marked a sub supply zone in yellow but IMHO the accumulation at 4060 zone has been much more heavy than the supply at the zones above.
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #18,060
  • Apr 3, 2011 6:32pm Apr 3, 2011 6:32pm
do not forget that when stock markets rise the usd gets weaker... the fact that es got bought heavy again at 1250 shake out recently is just an indication to me that nothing is going to slow down the us stock market this year. I see a new high in the stock markets to be honest by 2012.

eu ... 1,57 is my 2011 goal but it will be in stages.

There is no way the feds will raise rates till the us housing market picks up and right now we are seeing worsening situation again with prices dropping in the western regions that were not effected before. Also foreclosures are still running at 230k per month , although a 14% drop from prior month still really high. Thank god for the abolishment of mark to market otherwise the banks would be reporting huge losses each month .






Quoting pres78
So as we can see EU is still stuck in the range caused by the battle of the Hawks spewing rate hikes and "oh it will all be OK" and "ah shucks the economy is actually improving not getting worse"... "bailout, what's that?"...

Friday set us up with a real nice looking daily bar giving views that the bulls may finally take out that upper range supply zone... I have also marked a sub supply zone in yellow but IMHO the accumulation at 4060 zone has been much more heavy than the supply at the zones above.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
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