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Price is everything

  • #14,361
  • Apr 3, 2011 12:22pm Apr 3, 2011 12:22pm
[quote=Venice;4518328]
Quoting redsword11

Common sense red? I don't see that in the equities markets either... DOW, S&P returning to pre 2008 levels, making new highs. Yet, this country is still in a shit hurt of trouble. Why I try and remove any logic and just play the levels as they come about. No sense trying to apply reason to manipulated bs, regardless of the market.


whats your winning run @ now? your win ratio was 91% last time you mentioned it
  • #14,362
  • Apr 3, 2011 12:30pm Apr 3, 2011 12:30pm
Hey Red. Looking at your trades I cant say that fx is too wild Almost every trade of yours is a winner
  • #14,363
  • Apr 3, 2011 12:31pm Apr 3, 2011 12:31pm
[quote=redsword11;4518351]
Quoting Venice



whats your winning run @ now? your win ratio was 91% last time you mentioned it
Still around the same. I usually go in streaks of about 10-15 wins per loss, but I dropped the ball last week a few times and had a few win:loss:win:loss combinations. Keep in mind these streaks are scalping off the 5 minute chart. It's not uncommon for me to have several 1-5 pip scalps in a row.

Extra losses last week are a result of what I get for mucking in the NFP nonsense. However, that swissy trade that I called Thursday morning did net me about 120 pips. After NFP news came out it was met with hard rejection on the upside, which I was really disappointed in. I was looking for a retest of the highs, so I actually gave up about 50 pips from it's current high. Had to close it with it giving that much back.
  • #14,364
  • Apr 3, 2011 12:53pm Apr 3, 2011 12:53pm
Awesome, my kind of thread. Charts not chat!

GU Analysis:
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  • #14,365
  • Apr 3, 2011 12:53pm Apr 3, 2011 12:53pm
Soybeans 4H

Looking for PA around this demand zone.
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  • #14,366
  • Apr 3, 2011 12:56pm Apr 3, 2011 12:56pm
Quoting Benevolent
Awesome, my kind of thread. Charts not chat!

GU Analysis:
Attachment

ahhh, volume adjusted candles


welcome
  • #14,367
  • Apr 3, 2011 12:59pm Apr 3, 2011 12:59pm
EminiS&P500 futures 4 hour.

Monitor PA around 1302.00 for a buy. Maybe there are others demands on smaller timeframes, but for me this is a good starting point.
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  • #14,368
  • Apr 3, 2011 1:02pm Apr 3, 2011 1:02pm
[quote=Venice;4518328]
Quoting redsword11

Common sense red? I don't see that in the equities markets either... DOW, S&P returning to pre 2008 levels, making new highs. Yet, this country is still in a shit hurt of trouble. Why I try and remove any logic and just play the levels as they come about. No sense trying to apply reason to manipulated bs, regardless of the market.
I opened up a small forex account because I'm actually trying to move away from the futures market. Plenty of games being played there also.

You are also really limited to time of day for reliable setups. If trading SP /es futures, best time is during a select few hours in the NY session. Anytime other than that, some a-hole comes in out of nowhere with a few thousand lots and it can really throw a wrench in you gameplan.

I love Red's thoughts on comodities being in demand always, so buy at demand, but those markets have been pretty crazy also. Look at sugar wheat oil... Scaling in and out of oil, gold, silver, bond futures is difficult unless you have a pretty large account. The mini-commodity futures have horrible volume and bad spreads, I don't see that changing any time soon.

I like the way you can control lot size and margin size in forex. Brokers and MM games in forex do suck, and I've been a victim of that, but money management and scaling in and out seem better to me than futures.

One other thing is that forex is a bit more range bound, and a move out of supply or demand - you know real money is doing that. That's not always the case in futures market, especially during off hours.

Doing taxes get a big +1 for futures though.
  • #14,369
  • Apr 3, 2011 1:08pm Apr 3, 2011 1:08pm
Quoting Decimal
EminiS&P500 futures 4 hour.

Monitor PA around 1302.00 for a buy. Maybe there are others demands on smaller timeframes, but for me this is a good starting point.

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  • #14,370
  • Apr 3, 2011 1:09pm Apr 3, 2011 1:09pm
AU:

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Waiting for a break of the recent bids at 1.037 before looking for a short.
  • #14,371
  • Apr 3, 2011 1:14pm Apr 3, 2011 1:14pm
[quote=Dishwasher;4518397]
Quoting Venice

I opened up a small forex account because I'm actually trying to move away from the futures market. Plenty of games being played there also.

You are also really limited to time of day for reliable setups. If trading SP /es futures, best time is during a select few hours in the NY session. Anytime other than that, some a-hole comes in out of nowhere with a few thousand lots and it can really throw a wrench in you gameplan.

I love Red's thoughts on comodities being in demand always, so buy at demand, but those markets...

Hi Dishy,

Your point is of interest. A couple of my friends trade the EminiS&P trading 20 contracts and taking a couple of ticks off each trade during the US session. They dont trade any other instrument and appear to generate a healthy income week in week out. I would much prefer to do one or two trades a day and be prepared to wait for the right sets up so that I can go in heavy rather than jumping in and out.

I too agree with Reds idea on buying commodities that are in limited supply for a global increasing market. Its makes complete business sense. The spot fx markets are becoming a wild landscape for investment opportunities and as the weeks go by I am becoming far more interested in alternative investment/trading opportunities.
  • #14,372
  • Apr 3, 2011 1:27pm Apr 3, 2011 1:27pm
Natural Gas Futures H4. Looks pretty spikey, most probably entries long at demand on smaller timeframes. Price looks attractive around 4.200.
Forming a wedge with lower highs based on 4.200 as a tested base price.
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  • #14,373
  • Apr 3, 2011 1:28pm Apr 3, 2011 1:28pm
......... and l just want to alpologize for my manner @ times, that just shouldn't happen - displaying my anger and frustration like that openly


just wrong and not proud of myself


really ruins the mood of the thread since we have very rarely had any issues amongst ourselves
  • #14,374
  • Apr 3, 2011 1:30pm Apr 3, 2011 1:30pm
Quoting Benevolent
AU:

Attachment

Waiting for a break of the recent bids at 1.037 before looking for a short.


Dont forget, you might want to think about waiting for a pullback to a demand level on a 15M chart and going long. We are uncharted waters for supply zones on AU and other pairs. Might be a safer bet as AU might rally another few pips that might take out your SL.

Just food for thought.
  • #14,375
  • Apr 3, 2011 1:36pm Apr 3, 2011 1:36pm
[quote=Decimal;4518414]
Quoting Dishwasher


Hi Dishy,

Your point is of interest. A couple of my friends trade the EminiS&P trading 20 contracts and taking a couple of ticks off each trade during the US session. They dont trade any other instrument and appear to generate a healthy income week in week out. I would much prefer to do one or two trades a day and be prepared to wait for the right sets up so that I can go in heavy rather than jumping in and out.
Hi decimal, that is similar to how I trade /es. About 4 lots should be minimum, 1-2 is very difficult. Daytrading wise, I mark the globex high and low of day then look for pivot support and resistance S1 and R2 if we are in an uptrend. S2 and R1 if we are in a downtrend. Also look at daily weekly monthly pivot support/resistance confluences. Trigger is a bullish engulfing like we do here.

Then start scaling out with each tick remove risk and leave a runner. Often times the setup only occurs once or twice a day, sometimes it can be a few days without a trade. I'm always out by 4:15 NYT.

Pit traders don't really use charts, but they are all aware of pivots though, I'm finding pivots much more important in /es trading than in forex.
  • #14,376
  • Apr 3, 2011 1:37pm Apr 3, 2011 1:37pm
I appreciate the criticism Decimal. I have a very strict trading plan, however. I ride respectively with each accumulation/distribution phase that I interpret. Some call it catching a falling knife, I call it bread and butter. Again, I do appreciate the criticism!

Best,
Benevolent
  • #14,377
  • Apr 3, 2011 1:43pm Apr 3, 2011 1:43pm
Quoting Benevolent
I appreciate the criticism Decimal. I have a very strict trading plan, however. I ride respectively with each accumulation/distribution phase that I interpret. Some call it catching a falling knife, I call it bread and butter. Again, I do appreciate the criticism!

Best,
Benevolent

Wow, please dont use the word criticism, as my intention was certainly not this. I am only learning myself, so I am on the bottom rung I can assure you.

Its just something that Red has been pointing out for the last week or so that its might be safer waiting for a pullback to demand across alot of the pairs that are at historic highs or lows.
  • #14,378
  • Apr 3, 2011 1:54pm Apr 3, 2011 1:54pm
DKK Looks at great buy at this price, assuming we get the DX to turn.
Last low at this price was back in November at 5.2200

Monitoring for a buy.
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  • #14,379
  • Apr 3, 2011 1:57pm Apr 3, 2011 1:57pm
Longs


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  • #14,380
  • Apr 3, 2011 2:03pm Apr 3, 2011 2:03pm
EU. Another nice level tried and tested. Isnt it so easy looking back in the rear view mirror and spotting the levels that the market presented for us.
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