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  • #12,161
  • Edited 1:51pm Mar 30, 2011 1:37pm | Edited 1:51pm
Hi, I wonder if this is still a valid long case?
EDIT: weekly chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2011-03-30_Ford.png Size: 49 KB
Kind Regards zol
  • #12,162
  • Mar 30, 2011 1:38pm Mar 30, 2011 1:38pm
Quoting zoli
Hi, I wonder if this is still a valid long case?
Attachment
Looks dangerous. Daily spikes down could imply demand consumption. If you do take it, you should see on this chart exactly where your stops should be.
  • #12,163
  • Mar 30, 2011 1:54pm Mar 30, 2011 1:54pm
Quoting Venice
Looks dangerous. Daily spikes down could imply demand consumption. If you do take it, you should see on this chart exactly where your stops should be.
Thanky for the comment. I actually thought that these are demand shadows and indicated that price was pushed down but buyers came and surged it back up. However, the Volume is not agressive, so there is not so much convictions here. I just like the "fundamental" indicators of the company.
Well......
Kind Regards zol
  • #12,164
  • Mar 30, 2011 2:00pm Mar 30, 2011 2:00pm
Quoting zoli
Thanky for the comment. I actually thought that these are demand shadows and indicated that price was pushed down but buyers came and surged it back up. However, the Volume is not agressive, so there is not so much convictions here. I just like the "fundamental" indicators of the company.
Well......
It is and it isn't.

When ever I see rising prices with spikes down, I view it as demand consumption. Generally you will see a slight raise in the overall price, then a sharp drop down because all of the buyers have been previously eaten up.

As always, anything can happen.
  • #12,165
  • Mar 30, 2011 8:05pm Mar 30, 2011 8:05pm
Quoting zoli
Hi, I wonder if this is still a valid long case?
EDIT: weekly chart
Attachment
Beyond the volume, I like it. Of course, it should be said volume in general is way down at the moment.

Chris
  • #12,166
  • Mar 31, 2011 10:22am Mar 31, 2011 10:22am
Because of the way the 0.97 just won't let it go.....I think when we finally get a break - it could be brutal.
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  • #12,167
  • Mar 31, 2011 10:25am Mar 31, 2011 10:25am
Quoting clockwork71
Because of the way the 0.97 just won't let it go.....I think when we finally get a break - it could be brutal.
slowly creeping down it sure is. I would probably be looking for longs here, and to not even think about shorts until that last low on your chart is breached.

Dangerous game selling into a demand zone.

Cheers Chris, hope things are going well for you.
  • #12,168
  • Mar 31, 2011 4:09pm Mar 31, 2011 4:09pm
Quoting Venice
slowly creeping down it sure is. I would probably be looking for longs here, and to not even think about shorts until that last low on your chart is breached.

Dangerous game selling into a demand zone.

Cheers Chris, hope things are going well for you.
I think tomorrow's close will tell the story. I am leery of buying, simply because the highs keep getting lower...
  • #12,169
  • Mar 31, 2011 4:12pm Mar 31, 2011 4:12pm
The Yen pairs all did something interesting today. This was also seen in the CHF pairs too. We had sell offs, only to see a reversal. This shows that the market "wants" to go up still. Risk taking is still the norm I think. Of course, tomorrow's announcement could change things.....but then again - even if it is bad, most traders seem to be ignoring all bad news that comes out. It wouldn't surprise me at all if we see a disappointment in the NFP, a knee-jerk reaction down in the JPY pairs, and then buying afterwards. Seems to be the way the NFP days have been recently.
  • #12,170
  • Apr 1, 2011 7:23am Apr 1, 2011 7:23am
It seems the market is awfully excited about the prospect of good news today. I hope it isn't disappointed.
  • #12,171
  • Apr 1, 2011 11:09am Apr 1, 2011 11:09am
Quoting clockwork71
It seems the market is awfully excited about the prospect of good news today. I hope it isn't disappointed.
Looking at USDCAD I was really thinking about you. I was in and out on this pair with lost (won?) BE trades. Now we wait for a retest as the pair has started its way down with little barrier in the way. I hope it works out.

The JPY pairs have flown away, I am long on EURJPY myself for few days. Looking at the charts the push of the G7 did cause a big move, I wonder whether they created a medion term up trend (weaking the JPY)?
What do you think?

Ford Motors did start the move I have been looking for. On Monday I am longing that thing.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2011-04-01_USDJPY.png Size: 26 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2011-04-01_EURJPY.png Size: 54 KB
Kind Regards zol
  • #12,172
  • Apr 1, 2011 9:52pm Apr 1, 2011 9:52pm
Quoting zoli
Looking at USDCAD I was really thinking about you. I was in and out on this pair with lost (won?) BE trades. Now we wait for a retest as the pair has started its way down with little barrier in the way. I hope it works out.

The JPY pairs have flown away, I am long on EURJPY myself for few days. Looking at the charts the push of the G7 did cause a big move, I wonder whether they created a medion term up trend (weaking the JPY)?
What do you think?

Ford Motors did start the move I have been looking for. On Monday I am longing that thing.

Attachment

Attachment ...
I thought about you when I heard Ford was taking off today......

The JPY will continue to weaken in my opinion. In fact, I am thinking we may have seen the bottom in USD/JPY for the next few years. The monthly bar is a pinbar, and there are several central banks determined to keep the bid up. In fact, I entered a long-term long USD/JPY position today, and intend on keeping that one for some time....
  • #12,173
  • Apr 2, 2011 12:36am Apr 2, 2011 12:36am
Quoting clockwork71
I thought about you when I heard Ford was taking off today......

The JPY will continue to weaken in my opinion. In fact, I am thinking we may have seen the bottom in USD/JPY for the next few years. The monthly bar is a pinbar, and there are several central banks determined to keep the bid up. In fact, I entered a long-term long USD/JPY position today, and intend on keeping that one for some time....
Does this mean the Yen carry trade is back on lol.

I'm also short Yen but against the Aussie - the swap is better.
  • #12,174
  • Apr 2, 2011 8:03am Apr 2, 2011 8:03am
Quoting stewrigh
Does this mean the Yen carry trade is back on lol.

I'm also short Yen but against the Aussie - the swap is better.
Actually - yes it does....but by accident more than anything else I would guess. I would have gone AUD/JPY, but I didn't catch the move. I would suspect that the USD/JPY has a good chance to get moving as a few Fed Governors have recently made hawkish statements with one of them going so far as saying the rate needs to be 75bps higher by the end of this year.....We will see.....
  • #12,175
  • Apr 3, 2011 12:01pm Apr 3, 2011 12:01pm
Quoting clockwork71
Actually - yes it does....but by accident more than anything else I would guess. I would have gone AUD/JPY, but I didn't catch the move. I would suspect that the USD/JPY has a good chance to get moving as a few Fed Governors have recently made hawkish statements with one of them going so far as saying the rate needs to be 75bps higher by the end of this year.....We will see.....
Hi,

I had a bit of time on the weekend so I thought I summerize my view on the JPY pairs for a moment. I hope you enjoy and if you have some thoughts as well I would be happy to read them.

Let us start with the main one. Guess what, for me it is not necesserily the USDJPY actually.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2011-04-03_USDJPY.png Size: 62 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2011-04-03_EURJPY.png Size: 61 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2011-04-03_GBPJPY.png Size: 70 KB
Kind Regards zol
  • #12,176
  • Apr 3, 2011 12:06pm Apr 3, 2011 12:06pm
In bottom line, i do not know which pair is the best to trade now. I am long on EJ, but that does not mean I picked the best. The UJ has been trending quite strongly to down but that does not mean at all that it will be trending up just as strong from now on.
I really do not know so I wellcome your thoughts, all of you. Having said this, I do not think i will ever know with very strong determination but I also don not think I need to know soo badly.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: 2011-04-03_AUDJPY.png Size: 74 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2011-04-03_CHFJPY.png Size: 85 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2011-04-03_NZDJPY.png Size: 52 KB
Kind Regards zol
  • #12,177
  • Apr 3, 2011 7:16pm Apr 3, 2011 7:16pm
Quoting zoli
In bottom line, i do not know which pair is the best to trade now. I am long on EJ, but that does not mean I picked the best. The UJ has been trending quite strongly to down but that does not mean at all that it will be trending up just as strong from now on.
I really do not know so I wellcome your thoughts, all of you. Having said this, I do not think i will ever know with very strong determination but I also don not think I need to know soo badly.

Attachment

Attachment

Attachment

Attachment ...
Honestly, the AUD and NZD vs. the yen will move faster I imagine, but in general they are all going to run in the same direction over time.

Chris
  • #12,178
  • Edited 1:19am Apr 4, 2011 1:08am | Edited 1:19am
Hi,

could you please explain a bit why you think the AUDJPY and NZDJPY may rise faster than any other JPY pairs? I am unsure about it.
Looking at the interest rates that would explain to me of course but are there any other factors I do not see?

Thanks

EDIT:I just recognised one of the reasons why new traders fail. After reading your comment i looked at the charts and deeply inside (emotional instinct) was about to enter long positions both in AJ and NJ. Even though there is a straight up move from previous 2 weeks and no correction, no real beginning of the trading week, no London open, no set up, no nothing. I excersised discipline and did not enter after all. If a new trend is due there will be plenty of opportunities. I see at the moment that a very new trader, and myself some not long time ago, can have a stong urge to enter only to see the price retraces 200 pips and killing her position. 200 pips correction is nothing compare to the 1300 pips bullish explosion on the AJ so I am not surprised the smallest bit if it happens.
Looking at the history of JPY pairs, it seems to be also possible a straight 4-6000 pips up move......
Kind Regards zol
  • #12,179
  • Apr 4, 2011 7:39am Apr 4, 2011 7:39am
My NZD/USD short was closed for loss and I am suing Chris for trading against me lol. However, I am still looking for the opportunity to sell this pair.

I have been watching this pair for a while now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud.jpg Size: 129 KB
  • #12,180
  • Apr 4, 2011 9:17am Apr 4, 2011 9:17am
Quoting zoli
Hi,

could you please explain a bit why you think the AUDJPY and NZDJPY may rise faster than any other JPY pairs? I am unsure about it.
Looking at the interest rates that would explain to me of course but are there any other factors I do not see?

Thanks

EDIT:I just recognised one of the reasons why new traders fail. After reading your comment i looked at the charts and deeply inside (emotional instinct) was about to enter long positions both in AJ and NJ. Even though there is a straight up move from previous 2 weeks and no correction, no real...
Yes....I agree with the comment about the new trader.

The main reason is as you guessed it - interest rates. But on top of that, the AUD and NZD also reflect commodity prices as well, and if you think about it....those have gone straight up recently. This of course doesn't mean that there won't be a pullback, as there almost always is, but it means that on the whole they should move quicker.

Also, if you look at them historically, the speed is proven in the charts....
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