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AUDUSD for informed traders

  • #341
  • Mar 31, 2011 10:02am Mar 31, 2011 10:02am
Quoting tkhlam
what's your stop level for your 3 shorted level? If i were you, i may close the 0250 at 0290 cos i guess it wrong.

Will you enter another short now? interesting to know.

well, i dont really put stop loss as it has come to the previous high in 1984(close but still not there), but my target is parity, as AUS is a commodity currency, like thos big investors jim and mark are having affair with all commodities... but long at these level does look risky(my opinion)

yes, i will add more shorts if it went through 0350 level (i missed it... went out for dinner.... ) dont forget, almost high will always have a decent retracement (not sure by how many pips, but usually <i said USUALLY> about 500pips) in order to break the previous high... but i am pretty sure aussie will hit 1.09... if you need a better view, just check the AUS index, this will give a better view....
Logics do not apply in FOREX
  • #342
  • Edited 10:42am Mar 31, 2011 10:31am | Edited 10:42am
Took a short @ 1.035
SL @ 1.045 (distance looks petite at this TF but hell not risking more)

Beware, this is trying to catch the falling knife......

D1:
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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #343
  • Mar 31, 2011 10:33am Mar 31, 2011 10:33am
Quoting USD-Bear
Took a short @ 1.035
SL @ 1.045 (distance looks petite at this TF but hell not risking more)

D1:
Attachment

To tkhlam, check this graph out, this has a good view of where this pair will move along, but my personal view is 0970 is a little bit hard to reach...
Logics do not apply in FOREX
  • #344
  • Mar 31, 2011 10:54am Mar 31, 2011 10:54am
Quoting bskwak1124
To tkhlam, check this graph out, this has a good view of where this pair will move along, but my personal view is 0970 is a little bit hard to reach...
Thank you so much. Good luck to your trade.
  • #345
  • Mar 31, 2011 11:00am Mar 31, 2011 11:00am
Quoting bskwak1124
To tkhlam, check this graph out, this has a good view of where this pair will move along, but my personal view is 0970 is a little bit hard to reach...
Just a note to say thank you again. Your chart pull my lost-mind back.
  • #346
  • Mar 31, 2011 1:38pm Mar 31, 2011 1:38pm
I don't like A/U long right now... but neither do I like short. But that is one of the great things about trading. If you don't like what you see, you don't have to trade! In blackjack or other odds based games, you have to plow through the bad decks and keep playing, waiting for a deck to swing in your favor. Not trading!! You can fold your hands, risk nothing, and wait for an opportunity that suits you. What a great game!!

Regards,
  • #347
  • Mar 31, 2011 3:23pm Mar 31, 2011 3:23pm
Like to see it break that LTL now.....

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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #348
  • Mar 31, 2011 9:21pm Mar 31, 2011 9:21pm
I am tempted to jump in front of the bus with the baron; but my chart says up, up, and away; so I am afraid my broker would throw me under the bus. I think I will take Petra's advice and stand aside. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
  • #349
  • Edited 11:00pm Mar 31, 2011 10:39pm | Edited 11:00pm
Quoting USD-Bear
Like to see it break that LTL now.....

Attachment
Trendline breeched, I'm having some doubts about this going lower right now...just checked oanda order book, looks like retail is betting heavy short which is a good clue. Granted it's just one snipit of info from one broker...but one has to wonder IF this gets to 1.04, where the top may be. By the way I do have a short and just entered another lot at 1.0350, I consider this a descent entry considering we're on a 700 pip run north. It either pans out or it doesn't and the risk with proper mm is a go in my trading method. Hey, sometimes the little guys win playing against the bb.

http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/fo...r-book#AUD/USD
  • #350
  • Mar 31, 2011 11:29pm Mar 31, 2011 11:29pm
Quoting jerrycollie
I am tempted to jump in front of the bus with the baron; but my chart says up, up, and away; so I am afraid my broker would throw me under the bus. I think I will take Petra's advice and stand aside. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
It's the picking up pennies in front of the steamroller

I'm pretty sure it's going to drop, but how hard, I dunno.

There will be insane volatility tomorrow.
  • #351
  • Apr 1, 2011 1:16am Apr 1, 2011 1:16am
Standing aside is a reasonable thing to do, however i remain short.
My entry point (317) a solid support, not the resistance i wanted it to be.
Biggest joker
  • #352
  • Apr 1, 2011 1:32am Apr 1, 2011 1:32am
Quoting FX-Petra
I don't like A/U long right now... but neither do I like short. But that is one of the great things about trading. If you don't like what you see, you don't have to trade! In blackjack or other odds based games, you have to plow through the bad decks and keep playing, waiting for a deck to swing in your favor. Not trading!! You can fold your hands, risk nothing, and wait for an opportunity that suits you. What a great game!!

Regards,
Sitting on our hands at the moment is good advice I think.
  • #353
  • Apr 1, 2011 2:13am Apr 1, 2011 2:13am
NFP Friday's I'm usually in the Paltalk Forex Traders Room on voice.

If you don't have Paltalk but want to pop in to say hi, and/or listen to what other traders are doing (text chat and voice chat) you can download it here (free) http://www.paltalk.com/

When the paltalk panel comes up

Click on "All Rooms"
Click on "Business and Finance"
Click on "Day Traders"
Select "Forex Traders Room".

Good trading to us all this NFP.
  • #354
  • Apr 1, 2011 2:39am Apr 1, 2011 2:39am
Quoting Jade Gate
NFP Friday's I'm usually in the Paltalk Forex Traders Room on voice.

If you don't have Paltalk but want to pop in to say hi, and/or listen to what other traders are doing (text chat and voice chat) you can download it here (free) http://www.paltalk.com/

When the paltalk panel comes up

Click on "All Rooms"
Click on "Business and Finance"
Click on "Day Traders"
Select "Forex Traders Room".

Good trading to us all this NFP.
Well FML, I had a hedge position in a loss for nzd .....somehow it got closed? Hmm. Oh well, re-shorted at the daily high of .764ish.....so I feel unless something drastic happens, the upside will be limited, it's getting time for a retracement and price action confirms this.
  • #355
  • Apr 1, 2011 3:16am Apr 1, 2011 3:16am
Quoting USD-Bear
Like to see it break that LTL now.....

Attachment
pattern looks ok so far but I see upward USD-moves are not translated in price so there is resistance to go down.
Not feeling comfortable right now, pulling stop at BE

M15:
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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #356
  • Apr 1, 2011 5:15am Apr 1, 2011 5:15am
hehe, lost fight, stopped @ BE

M15:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #357
  • Apr 1, 2011 1:27pm Apr 1, 2011 1:27pm
Yes stopped out too..
Biggest joker
  • #358
  • Apr 1, 2011 2:29pm Apr 1, 2011 2:29pm
made some pips today, but not on a/u. Still waiting for a pullback. Will consder a small short @ 425. Lots of other ways to make pips short USD that are not overbought. Great week for me. Good trades to all...

Regards,
  • #359
  • Apr 2, 2011 2:33pm Apr 2, 2011 2:33pm
AUD/JPY and AUD/CHF have hit the top line of my weekly channels. AUD/CAD has turned down already. EUR/AUD is going sideways. Will AUD/USD turn down? When AUD starts back down, I expect to short AUD/JPY instead of AUD/USD. That will leave AUD/USD open in case I need to go long after a pull-back. I can't hedge here in the USA. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
  • #360
  • Apr 2, 2011 3:41pm Apr 2, 2011 3:41pm
Quoting jerrycollie
AUD/JPY and AUD/CHF have hit the top line of my weekly channels. AUD/CAD has turned down already. EUR/AUD is going sideways. Will AUD/USD turn down? When AUD starts back down, I expect to short AUD/JPY instead of AUD/USD. That will leave AUD/USD open in case I need to go long after a pull-back. I can't hedge here in the USA. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

Won't be at all surprised if AU pulls back strongly Sun, Mon, Tue am ahead of the rate decision. 1.03920 is at the top of my 4H channel.

AU can often be dumped on the 2nd day of the month, after the 401k pump on the 1st of the month, more so this month because the 1st came on a Friday ahead of the weekend.

Some retracement of the big bull move would seem in order. AU has looked tired the last few days, as if market is not particularly willing to send it much higher without a decent pull back.

There was a very clear last minute pump of the Kiwi against what was otherwise some convincing bears at work, just before the 5pm bell on Friday, this also may fall over on open this week coming. The same bulls tried it on with AU but were greeted by bears - sometimes if market can't press north on AU because of technical resistance, they will resort to the Kiwi instead.

Am also liking the EUR/AUD cross for long here, some nice consolidation happening that may (or may not) be the catalyst for follow-through of the HnS on the weekly.

This said, AU's bull continuation pattern from Oct '10 is still in play until there is evidence to the contrary. Much will depend on how the USD performs this week post NFP and of course, the rate decision on Tuesday.
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