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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #24,081
  • Apr 1, 2011 1:01am Apr 1, 2011 1:01am
Quoting dongsky
Hi Vick

[...]
but everytime i am in doubt with my position... i never think twice to close it... and start to look for another profitable entry... but i always leave scout in the terrain to pulse the market further, and can make a good view of it...
[...]

regards,
eddy

p.s. have downloaded document but it wont fire up with my tablet pc
Morning Eddy,

from my experience it is a very good indicator (maybe a message from your subconscious). We have to learn to listen to it and develop more sophisticated skills, to listen in more detail to that messages ...

All the best,
Niels
  • #24,082
  • Apr 1, 2011 1:06am Apr 1, 2011 1:06am
Nice move last night on USDJPY.
Hope fti is still invested in that lady ...

.
Attached Image
  • #24,083
  • Apr 1, 2011 1:50am Apr 1, 2011 1:50am
Quoting MaMood
Morning Eddy,

from my experience it is a very good indicator (maybe a message from your subconscious). We have to learn to listen to it and develop more sophisticated skills, to listen in more detail to that messages ...

All the best,
Niels
like your wisdom there niels

i'm still dollar bull today! will be shorting my lady very soon!

regards,
eddy
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #24,084
  • Apr 1, 2011 1:58am Apr 1, 2011 1:58am
Quoting dongsky
like your wisdom there niels

i'm still dollar bull today! will be shorting my lady very soon!

regards,
eddy
im currently dollar bear , i think 1 more small push downwards before reversing around 50s but i cld be very wrong , stay nimble eh ed
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #24,085
  • Apr 1, 2011 2:09am Apr 1, 2011 2:09am
Quoting maheswara
im currently dollar bear , i think 1 more small push downwards before reversing around 50s but i cld be very wrong , stay nimble eh ed

thanks dika i'm till flat atm... still pulsing her... although i'm feeling dollar bulls presence... but again it's just me... i need to be nimble in order to survive...

battlestation!!!

..
i can smell blood from a distance... i wish not mine
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #24,086
  • Apr 1, 2011 2:14am Apr 1, 2011 2:14am
eu short scout @ 1.4174

L2 deployed ...4169
.......

getting ready for L3...

L3 deployed ... 4163
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #24,087
  • Apr 1, 2011 3:03am Apr 1, 2011 3:03am
Just for info:

Extraordinary 1.5 Bln Portugal Bond auction during this hour ..

  • #24,088
  • Apr 1, 2011 3:06am Apr 1, 2011 3:06am
Quoting dongsky
eu short scout @ 1.4174

L2 deployed ...4169
.......

getting ready for L3...

L3 deployed ... 4163
Hi Eddy,

what is your position now?
Still L3 deployed?

Have not made any trades so far.
Seems I'm more in "Entertainment mood".
No porper trading mindset yet ..
  • #24,089
  • Apr 1, 2011 3:09am Apr 1, 2011 3:09am
Quoting MaMood
Hi Eddy,

what is your position now?
Still L3 deployed?

Have not made any trades so far.
Seems I'm more in "Entertainment mood".
No porper trading mindset yet ..

still L3... seems like it stalls at the current level... if it won't move another 10 minutes... i will scale down exposure... bringing L2 L3 home... leaving scout...

... if me, i will just go and play ps2... when i'm not focused

...

hey neils, sometimes when i'm bored... even there's no clear direction of the market... i will deploy a scout... and when in trouble... then i will have focus you try... its good for your heart and brain though.. and worst is... i do it with tick charts sometimes... then i will be alert
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #24,090
  • Apr 1, 2011 3:38am Apr 1, 2011 3:38am
L3 closed...4150

L2 closed...4153... not so good terrain to me atm...

we'll see

i will have more clearer picture of the terrain after euro's fig release -unemployment claim... for now... i let my scout do the action... i just replenish his ammo
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #24,091
  • Apr 1, 2011 3:43am Apr 1, 2011 3:43am
Quoting dongsky
[...]

hey neils, sometimes when i'm bored... even there's no clear direction of the market... i will deploy a scout... and when in trouble... then i will have focus you try... its good for your heart and brain though.. and worst is... i do it with tick charts sometimes... then i will be alert
I know what you are talking about very well.
Dangerous :-)

I'm glad my broker made me a present a few minutes ago.
His datafeed was delayed, so I managed to make a nice profit by arbitrage MO ...
(I like to cheat the broker :-)

Cu
  • #24,092
  • Apr 1, 2011 3:55am Apr 1, 2011 3:55am
Portugal Bond auction is done.
Seems to have not a big influence on a NFP day ...
  • #24,093
  • Apr 1, 2011 4:04am Apr 1, 2011 4:04am
oh boy, boredom can be a killer. Never be in the battle without a reason. I think I may be aggressive as well (too aggressive?). I tend to be very quick in my decisions, so a "small" 15 pip retrace is not small to me. If I take a trade based on momentum of price and the position goes against me, I would have known either I have mistimed or my direction is wrong.

In either case, it does not make much sense to keep positions in battle if my reasoning (the reason why I took the trade aka I thought I was going to hit the impulse leg) is negated (while I am still nimble). Either way, I will have to wait out that "minor retrace" and attempt a rescue, or flip if the position gets really bad.

Wouldn't it be wise to scale down, kill the scout, wait for the minor retrace to finish and then perform a rescue as impulse dictates? This way we might tone down our aggressiveness?

I know fti talks about killing scouts as bad form, but when your personality is aggressive, perhaps it is better for us to do so?


about arb, I thought their computers were faster than ours? Are our brokers really that susceptible? If yes, then possible to design program to make trades instantly and get out. But also we have RISK in the sense that the broker may lag in our process time?
  • #24,094
  • Apr 1, 2011 4:21am Apr 1, 2011 4:21am
Quoting MaMood
I know what you are talking about very well.
Dangerous :-)

I'm glad my broker made me a present a few minutes ago.
His datafeed was delayed, so I managed to make a nice profit by arbitrage MO ...
(I like to cheat the broker :-)

Cu
Care to share the names of the generous brokers for the benefits of TAF family... We promised not to bankroll them but leave enough on the table
"Thinking Heart & Feeling Brain"
  • #24,095
  • Apr 1, 2011 4:23am Apr 1, 2011 4:23am
Hello FTI & Fellow Threaders,
I just came across this old post that I think is a jewell for it supports FTI's approach.
Page 544 ( Jun 27, 2009 1:59am #8154 - SirLostALot )
Today we have double-wammy:
NFP + Fools' Day
Best!
Plankton
"Life is like a box of chocolates."
  • #24,096
  • Apr 1, 2011 4:44am Apr 1, 2011 4:44am
Quoting fullperson
oh boy, boredom can be a killer. Never be in the battle without a reason. I think I may be aggressive as well (too aggressive?). I tend to be very quick in my decisions, so a "small" 15 pip retrace is not small to me. If I take a trade based on momentum of price and the position goes against me, I would have known either I have mistimed or my direction is wrong.

In either case, it does not make much sense to keep positions in battle if my reasoning (the reason why I took the trade aka I thought I was going to hit the impulse leg) is negated...
Hi FP
I was thinking of this : Just imagine we have some impulse and retrace from it. We couldnt expect that impulse(because it is an impulseś, but we can expect the retracement from it.
-How accurate is it possible to use that retracement... learn the accuracy...-
-we can due to practising be better and better in this imho.-
-So because of skew, we can safe almost every position we want, it is a question not of killing the scout and betting other side... but how acurate we are with appropriate skewing-

Just my 0,2cents... but take it with reserve (i am still FX student).
Trade well:-)
  • #24,097
  • Apr 1, 2011 5:08am Apr 1, 2011 5:08am
low vols maybe most sidelined till nfp
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #24,098
  • Apr 1, 2011 7:10am Apr 1, 2011 7:10am
Quoting MaMood
I know what you are talking about very well.
Dangerous :-)

I'm glad my broker made me a present a few minutes ago.
His datafeed was delayed, so I managed to make a nice profit by arbitrage MO ...
(I like to cheat the broker :-)

Cu
hi Niels,
good for you! care to share?
regards.
  • #24,099
  • Apr 1, 2011 8:38am Apr 1, 2011 8:38am
Happy weekend friends! And let me introduce my lasta invention. Akvarium fishes feeding machine. It is based on the principe of evaporating water in a can and thus, the flakes are thrown into akvarium... You can go to the cottage and let work there 2-3 machines with different water level in the cans. And there will be the feeding!
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  • #24,100
  • Apr 1, 2011 8:38am Apr 1, 2011 8:38am
Where's everybody? Busy collecting pips from the NFP i suppose

Another news release in 30mins... Something to take note but as my best pal would say Beware of cow dungs


LONDON, April 1 (IFR) - EUR/USD losses eventually hit 1.4088 after the slightly better than expected US payroll data, but the market has since regained the 1.4100 level and trades just above the figure for now. There are option expiries at 1.4120 which could prove a draw, but it seems the market is comfortable around the 1.4100 level, with the better USD tone still keeping a lid on the pair at present. However, recent talk suggests a very good size right hand side fix at 4pm London time (15GMT) and this should serve to underpin the pair over the next couple of hours. Any renewed weakness will run in to Asian CB bids in the 1.4070's and Euro zone CB bids at 1.4050. 1.4047 is also the 21 day moving average. NB - Implied vols heave weakened post data - the 1mth atm contract extending new 11mth lows to trade under 9.4. [email protected] /PS
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