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Elliott Wave Trading

  • #5,241
  • Mar 26, 2011 8:44am Mar 26, 2011 8:44am
Quoting pkimnyc
and please don't get too tide up with wave counting.
just keep it simple if you want to be a trader, and not an elliottian.
ok.. Anyway, what do u mean "..and not an Elliottian"? Mr. Pkimnyc.. what is your opinion from your experienced,,, Do u think, we must need to learn Elliott Wave?? Can we trade without it? plz.. its time i have to telling about my past bad trading even this more private.. but i want to be a success.. so everyone do too.. so dont care.. sorry

..Before this, I am just trade without this principle..I dont know this and I am just using simple technical analysis which are Pivot point, Support and Resistance, Fibonacci levels, Crossed Moving averages, RSI and MACD.. But still bad. always loss.. Why?

Then I keep studying and keep asking with someone, And some my friends who also trader told me about Elliott wave principle.. He said u need to learn this.. you must!! Otherwise.. u can't success.. because this is really important subject on Technical Analysis.. The Elliott wave is one of independent primarily tool about to know market/price behavior become to one of predictable pattern and direction in the chart's visual.. How you want to anticipate the market if dont really know.. where is market want to go? unless the answer is Elliott wave..is he right??

Unfortunately, this subject so hard and difficult.. seriously, i cannot make it!
thats why .. i come here for need a help and advice ..I am really beginner

Thanks, Mr. Pkimnyc..

i am so felt desperate sometimes
  • #5,242
  • Mar 26, 2011 8:50am Mar 26, 2011 8:50am
Quoting arqish
ok.. Anyway, what do u mean "..and not an Elliottian"? Mr. Pkimnyc.. what is your opinion from your experienced,,, Do u think, we must need to learn Elliott Wave?? Can we trade without it? plz.. its time i have to telling about my past bad trading even this more private.. but i want to be a success.. so do everyone too.. so dont care.. sorry

..Before this, I am just trade without this principle.. I am just using simple technical analysis which are Pivot point, Support and Resistance, Fibonacci levels, Crossed Moving averages, RSI and MACD.....
i've seen many successful traders who doesn't know anything about ew.
it would not hurt if you learn. in many times ew has been helpful in my own trading experience, but not to the point where i would not trade without it. downfall of most ew traders i've seen.... they get too caught up in their own wave count, refuse to accept the reality.
regarding ta, it's another subject matter that i would not go over in this thread, but pm me.
  • #5,243
  • Mar 26, 2011 8:53am Mar 26, 2011 8:53am
even the simple of technical analysis.. i also still not catch up it so much...

then the Elliott Wave principle is MORE HUGE to me
  • #5,244
  • Mar 26, 2011 4:38pm Mar 26, 2011 4:38pm
Quoting Ian Copsey
Nice to see a Harmonic EW count!
It is quite rare seeing a 161.8% projection in Wave iii. In fact the ratio of the count you have is closer to a 166.7% projection... The normal minimum is 176.4% but often as not is more...

I had been looking for minimum 1.4095 and as high as 1.4283... these being the 76.4% & 85.4% projections in what I felt was Wave v from the 1.2858 low. (Your Wave a is my Wave iii.) So an end at 1.4247 is within a reasonable deviation.

I am overall bearish Dollars for this year so do expect further losses later but had looked...
Thanks IAN.

Here is another observation of EURO/ CAD..

Could be very wrong.
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Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #5,245
  • Mar 26, 2011 5:23pm Mar 26, 2011 5:23pm
Quoting Raza
Thanks IAN.

Here is another observation of EURO/ CAD..

Could be very wrong.
OK, well that's not a Harmonic EW count...! In my approach there are no extended waves and no failed fifths. That makes life a lot easier. I don't touch EURCAD so have no idea of the ratios but on the assumption that this will continue lower I'd say where you have Wave iii is actually a 5-wave move in Wave A. Your Wave ii is very deep and that will mean that Wave iv (normally) is very shallow - and when Wave ii is that deep Wave iv will hardly be noticed... That's one reason you can't just choose the obvious highs and lows that you can see as the termination of waves... You have to measure the relationships.

That would make what may be a triangle the Wave B of Wave 3... However, that will require a very large projection - maybe 361.8%-398.4%...
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #5,246
  • Mar 26, 2011 5:28pm Mar 26, 2011 5:28pm
Hi Ian,

just watched your video on your website... question regarding your fib tool - When you are measuring say wave i to wave ii... is your fib tool essentially taking a reading from the top (end) of wave i to the bottom (end) of wave ii?

the reason i ask is because my charting package gives me a standard fib tool with no extension or projection facility... only retracement...

Thanks
  • #5,247
  • Mar 26, 2011 8:31pm Mar 26, 2011 8:31pm
Quoting jaylovin
Hi Ian,

just watched your video on your website... question regarding your fib tool - When you are measuring say wave i to wave ii... is your fib tool essentially taking a reading from the top (end) of wave i to the bottom (end) of wave ii?

the reason i ask is because my charting package gives me a standard fib tool with no extension or projection facility... only retracement...

Thanks
When you are talking about retracements then it is from the beginning of the wave to the end. Wave ii will be a retracement of Wave i.

Wave iii will be a projection of Wave i from the completion of Wave ii.
Wave iv will be a retracement of Wave iii
Wave v will be a projection of the move from the start of Wave i to the end of Wave iii and projected from the completion of Wave iv...

You can download the spreadsheet from the left hand column of my website. You can then just key in the levels and the spreadsheet will generate a range of projections/retracements.
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #5,248
  • Mar 27, 2011 12:39am Mar 27, 2011 12:39am
Quoting Ian Copsey
OK, well that's not a Harmonic EW count...! In my approach there are no extended waves and no failed fifths. That makes life a lot easier. I don't touch EURCAD so have no idea of the ratios but on the assumption that this will continue lower I'd say where you have Wave iii is actually a 5-wave move in Wave A. Your Wave ii is very deep and that will mean that Wave iv (normally) is very shallow - and when Wave ii is that deep Wave iv will hardly be noticed... That's one reason you can't just choose the obvious highs and lows that you can see as the...
No its not a Harmonic approach.

Thanks Ian...still trying to make sense out of it....

I dont trade this pair......just trying to figure out what EURO is Upto.
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #5,249
  • Mar 27, 2011 3:29am Mar 27, 2011 3:29am
Once I see the price drop below support level 1.5960 AFTER a true elliot correction,i'll go short. Until then i'm staying "Bullish"

Right now I don't think GBP/USD is going to break far below the 1.5960 before reaching for higher ground; despite negative news.

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  • #5,250
  • Mar 27, 2011 3:40am Mar 27, 2011 3:40am
Quoting Ian Copsey
When you are talking about retracements then it is from the beginning of the wave to the end. Wave ii will be a retracement of Wave i.

Wave iii will be a projection of Wave i from the completion of Wave ii.
Wave iv will be a retracement of Wave iii
Wave v will be a projection of the move from the start of Wave i to the end of Wave iii and projected from the completion of Wave iv...

[color=red]You can download the spreadsheet from the left hand column of my website. You can then just key in the levels and the spreadsheet will generate a range...

beautiful.... thanks i'll grab it now..
  • #5,251
  • Mar 29, 2011 7:53pm Mar 29, 2011 7:53pm
I have updated the chart from my earlier post. This looks like a continuation of a correctional wave sequence. It made it back to the 23 Fib, but i'll be watching with caution for price consolidation at the 38/50/61/100 Fib levels.

We also have Stochastics in agreement with the bulls as it crosses over at the 14.5 level.

I'm already in a trade here and hoping it reaches for the sky near the 1.6340 range before retracing back down to where it is now. Of course we could always see it strike a Fib level and head back down to complete a proper elliot correction.

I believe what we are seeing here if a sideways elliot corrective wave repeating itself. Until we see a proper correction as seen on my original post we should be able to predict market movement on a daily basis.



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  • #5,252
  • Mar 29, 2011 10:04pm Mar 29, 2011 10:04pm
Quoting kingdomkid
I have updated the chart from my earlier post. This looks like a continuation of a correctional wave sequence. It made it back to the 23 Fib, but i'll be watching with caution for price consolidation at the 38/50/61/100 Fib levels.

We also have Stochastics in agreement with the bulls as it crosses over at the 14.5 level.

I'm already in a trade here and hoping it reaches for the sky near the 1.6340 range before retracing back down to where it is now. Of course we could always see it strike a Fib level and head back down to complete a proper elliot...
No comments on whether the view is right or wrong but the first labeling of "1" means you expect losses... If you mean that you are looking for a rally then that should be a 4 or a (b) then where you have "2" it should be "1" and where you have "3" should be "2" and so on...
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #5,253
  • Mar 31, 2011 6:02am Mar 31, 2011 6:02am
Quoting Ian Copsey
No comments on whether the view is right or wrong but the first labeling of "1" means you expect losses... If you mean that you are looking for a rally then that should be a 4 or a (b) then where you have "2" it should be "1" and where you have "3" should be "2" and so on...
that's good approach...Ian knows what he talked about
stock , commodity , bond , forex
  • #5,254
  • Mar 31, 2011 6:04am Mar 31, 2011 6:04am
Quoting kingdomkid
I have updated the chart from my earlier post. This looks like a continuation of a correctional wave sequence. It made it back to the 23 Fib, but i'll be watching with caution for price consolidation at the 38/50/61/100 Fib levels.

We also have Stochastics in agreement with the bulls as it crosses over at the 14.5 level.

I'm already in a trade here and hoping it reaches for the sky near the 1.6340 range before retracing back down to where it is now. Of course we could always see it strike a Fib level and head back down to complete a proper elliot...
Too messy for me...but good..im stay away this pair at the time
stock , commodity , bond , forex
  • #5,255
  • Mar 31, 2011 6:12am Mar 31, 2011 6:12am
subjectivity is objectivity
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stock , commodity , bond , forex
  • #5,256
  • Edited 10:55pm Mar 31, 2011 9:51pm | Edited 10:55pm
Indicator CCY telling there's lot of buyer during asian sesion..Yen ccy looks weak..cad , usd and chf looks strong to drag XXX vs yen higher..

Just Opinion..Objecting accepted

Some other trader looking gbpjpy to turn downside..whatever divergence or top wave 5 or bull trap...too risky by now...


If you mean that you are looking for a rally then that should be a 4 or a (b) then where you have "2" it should be "1" and where you have "3" should be "2" and so on...
http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/cust...ar161917_1.gif Ian Copsey
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stock , commodity , bond , forex
  • #5,257
  • Mar 31, 2011 11:06pm Mar 31, 2011 11:06pm
i don't know if this react...because i found no strong correlation
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stock , commodity , bond , forex
  • #5,258
  • Apr 1, 2011 8:03am Apr 1, 2011 8:03am
NFP coming...
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stock , commodity , bond , forex
  • #5,259
  • Apr 4, 2011 2:32am Apr 4, 2011 2:32am
what a boring market...zzzzzzzzzz
stock , commodity , bond , forex
  • #5,260
  • Apr 4, 2011 10:03am Apr 4, 2011 10:03am
buy safe haven currency? chf looks strong but not in a extreme conditions..
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stock , commodity , bond , forex
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