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USDCAD trend reversal?

  • #3,881
  • Mar 30, 2011 8:11am Mar 30, 2011 8:11am
keep doing your thing there scarecru
  • #3,882
  • Mar 30, 2011 3:55pm Mar 30, 2011 3:55pm
Hey FOTO: hope that you are getting positive cash flow with some of these ramblings. It's the least that I can do, considering all the great advice that you have provided this thread in the past.

Re: Beaver (Cad/Y): basic retrace to 100% fib (Mar 10-16- excludes wicks)

STO is o/b but MacD > signal & H2O line. Buy looks good if 85.77 break (today's hi). Shall await Canada gdp on the morrow.

Wkly indicators strong bull sentiment.
  • #3,883
  • Mar 30, 2011 4:44pm Mar 30, 2011 4:44pm
Cad dly: gonna watch Aud NZ news tonight to see if any com$ direction.

tomorrow gdp news: probably prudent to wait for the dust to settle.

On Dly chart rsi < 50 & MacD < signal & H2O line.

I'm selling <9685

or a retrace to 9800 won't surprise.

Bigger question: will Lizzie mae be allowed to squeak @ leaders' debate?
( love it: " the squeaky wheel gets the grease-BUT only if it's of vegetable
extraction; NOT the petroleum-based polluting this fine earth variety.).

HMMM wonder if she' gonna campaign at the Athabaska tar sands?
  • #3,884
  • Mar 30, 2011 5:34pm Mar 30, 2011 5:34pm
Hi Scarecru,
In response to your inquiry. Have been doing real well in the Yen crosses.
AUD/Yen long on rebuild of Japan and NZD/Yen long on radiation contamination of Japans food supply
USD/Yen long using the prior posts thoughts about rethinking old relationships between Japan and the US
Hanging on in my Euro/USD shorts and GBP/USD shorts. Didn't count on the boost that the Euro/Yen and GBP/Yen would give to the pairs.
Still believe that Europe is headed towards a disfunctional ending. Too many stresses and too few benificiaries. Germany and France come out winners, but the weaker nations are stuck in deep mud.

Am probably one of the few USD bulls left living as the market has had only one trade for quite some time. When all else fails short the USD to make money. Kind of think there are some enormous shorts out there and sooner or later when the market turns they are going to get creamed.

In regards to commodities have not done much with USD/CAD as I need more of a trend to play. My short term game is not much when it comes to scalping and day trading.

Bout wraps it up for now. Watch copper as its recent fall is maybe what we are looking for to find clues for a change of trend.
Something is always cooking somewhere.
  • #3,885
  • Mar 30, 2011 6:17pm Mar 30, 2011 6:17pm
Quoting foto
Hi Scarecru,

USD/Yen long using the prior posts thoughts about rethinking old relationships between Japan and the US...
Yo FOTO:Glad to read that you be replenishing your account.
I am truly a novice re: U/Y & avoided it due to lack of study. Your post re: it & yen X's made sense & picked up pips on comm$/Y pairs
I,too am mystified with E fundamentals & only see grief( however,politics & news control = bullsh*t baffles brains).
WHEN all the dust settles (just don't know when) I truly expect the USD to do the Phoenix thing. IMHO,& no offense to you or your great nation-I think that the present president is a liability.
Going to watch copper (thanks).

Mentioned before (many times) that I be an ant.I'll just keep scavenging for pips & eventually lock the door on the grasshoppers.

Keep yer stick on the ice
  • #3,886
  • Mar 30, 2011 7:44pm Mar 30, 2011 7:44pm
strangely enough, didn't like the price action on the yen crosses tonite. Just went flat on them except USD/JPY

Just following gut instinct on this one. Seems like a case of vertigo. Straight up with no pause. Maybe too far too fast.

Can always get back in if price action looks better.

Bought USD/CAD. Can't always give good reason for doing a trade. Just seemed the thing to do at this time.
  • #3,887
  • Mar 31, 2011 2:06am Mar 31, 2011 2:06am
As of the time of this post Bernanke may be getting what he wanted after all, a runaway bear for the USD.
  • #3,888
  • Mar 31, 2011 3:44am Mar 31, 2011 3:44am
I guess USDCAD may go back to 9800 level very soon.
  • #3,889
  • Mar 31, 2011 3:49am Mar 31, 2011 3:49am
Quoting tkhlam
I guess USDCAD may go back to 9800 level very soon.
I put some longs on at level. Just do not be too greedy.
  • #3,890
  • Mar 31, 2011 3:54am Mar 31, 2011 3:54am
Quoting Euroscum
I put some longs on at level. Just do not be too greedy.
Me too, I long some at 0.9694.
  • #3,891
  • Mar 31, 2011 3:57am Mar 31, 2011 3:57am
Quoting tkhlam
Me too, I long some at 0.9694.
Look forward to break 0.9720 and then 0.9750 today.
  • #3,892
  • Mar 31, 2011 5:28am Mar 31, 2011 5:28am
Quoting tkhlam
Look forward to break 0.9720 and then 0.9750 today.
hope other pairs will drop more than CAD...any adverse comment?
  • #3,893
  • Mar 31, 2011 5:37am Mar 31, 2011 5:37am
USD index broke down again overnight. Really needs a strong bull trend daily bar to confirm an upward trajectory.
Germany is perking along fine and carries the Euro with it.

Am thinking the only really good trades fundamentaly are the yen shorts across the board. BOJ is not going to tighten no matter what happens in the rest of the world.

Traders have been making money shorting Yen so they will most likely continue doing so. The only real way a market changes is when positions start losing money often enough then the trend is locked in the other way.
  • #3,894
  • Mar 31, 2011 5:38am Mar 31, 2011 5:38am
Quoting foto
USD index broke down again overnight. Really needs a strong bull trend daily bar to confirm an upward trajectory.
Germany is perking along fine and carries the Euro with it.

Am thinking the only really good trades fundamentaly are the yen shorts across the board. BOJ is not going to tighten no matter what happens in the rest of the world.

Traders have been making money shorting Yen so they will most likely continue doing so. The only real way a market changes is when positions start losing money often enough then the trend is locked in the other...
Nice. So you only short yen?
  • #3,895
  • Mar 31, 2011 8:24am Mar 31, 2011 8:24am
Hello tkhlam,

I will trade anything that has a scenario and supportive price action to back up the idea.

Am a longer term swing and conditions warranted trend trader. Taking my clues from daily, weekly or even monthly charts for price decision points.
Once a decision point is decerned where the market can go either way, will use short term charts like 4 hour and 1 hour to look for traditional chart patterns that show up indicating a directional bias.
Do not preset price targets as I think price action will tell me what to do, stay in or get out as the market goes wherever it may go.

Will trade countertrend when opinion leads to belief that things are overdone. Or when looking for a significant change in market direction.

I try to keep things as simple as possible, because in the long run can only make money if long when the markets going up, or short when going down. May come off as trite saying that, but really don't believe trading is more complicated then what was just written.

Will also use the USD index as my compass in the jungle of currencies.

Have found that simplicity helps when the fatigue affects judgement from data overload.

Thanks for asking. Have a good one.
  • #3,896
  • Mar 31, 2011 8:54am Mar 31, 2011 8:54am
Quoting tkhlam
Look forward to break 0.9720 and then 0.9750 today.
same here!
  • #3,897
  • Mar 31, 2011 8:57am Mar 31, 2011 8:57am
Quoting foto
Hello tkhlam,

I will trade anything that has a scenario and supportive price action to back up the idea.

Am a longer term swing and conditions warranted trend trader. Taking my clues from daily, weekly or even monthly charts for price decision points.
Once a decision point is decerned where the market can go either way, will use short term charts like 4 hour and 1 hour to look for traditional chart patterns that show up indicating a directional bias.
Do not preset price targets as I think price action will tell me what to do, stay in or get...
Thanks for sharing. Good day and trade.
  • #3,898
  • Mar 31, 2011 4:54pm Mar 31, 2011 4:54pm
Beaver: 4H triangle break to upside. Mayhap, 86.50 Wly 50% fib gonna be hit

Loonie: is NFP already factored in?

Got a sell stop @ 9685 ( Mar 9 close). Possible bounce from this level to 9788 but I hesitate to countertrend since:

STO showed bull div back then.
at present- MacD, STO & RSI not in same O/S position.

Shall watch & listen to various candidates expound on their political positions tonight. {I like to think of this as pornography.}
In my humble opinion- In their political fantasy scenarios of my future should they be elected; each is attempting to seduce me in order to give me the greatest XXXXXXX
of my life!
Note to self: do share prices of KY jelly go up when a federal election is called
  • #3,899
  • Mar 31, 2011 5:14pm Mar 31, 2011 5:14pm
0.9630 could be on the table.. or a retrace back to 0.9800

I'm long @0.9691 with buy limits waiting below at 0.9670 and 0.9640

News may already be priced into the loonie, so its hard to tell....

Side note - Bank of Nova Scotia is forecasting the USD/CAD to be 0.9300 by 2012

Cheers
  • #3,900
  • Apr 1, 2011 4:39am Apr 1, 2011 4:39am
CAD/JPY is so powerful an uptrend that it is driving the USD/CAD pair directionaly.

One could learn from this as an example of intermarket analysis.
There are many influences on currency pairs, but with three major currency exchanges Asia/Pacific, Europe, and North America and the growing influence of South and Central Americas thrown in to boot. It pays to watch a broader spectrum of crosses to use in interpreting price direction.

One may consider keeping one monitor loaded with the daily charts of as many pairs as possible to scan for these types of interactions. Just a thought.
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