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AUDUSD for informed traders

  • #301
  • Mar 29, 2011 11:41pm Mar 29, 2011 11:41pm
Another Short Test @ 1.0321
TP @ +50
SL @ -50

Reason of this shorting: Testing for a trend.
Current Market movement: Strongly Bullish - OB trend is Neutral.
  • #302
  • Mar 30, 2011 2:18am Mar 30, 2011 2:18am
Have been short from 317, but it won't be a simple afair
Biggest joker
  • #303
  • Mar 30, 2011 5:22am Mar 30, 2011 5:22am
Well, yesterday's prediction was ignored by the market, and once again consigned me to the amateurs' bench.

Not to worry...

I currently see a spinning top forming on the daily, and the 4hr is looking a little 'toppy' for me.

Should anyone want to look, the monthly pin is not without substance. Is something brewing in Asia?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud.gif Size: 42 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: au4hr.gif Size: 30 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: aum.gif Size: 42 KB
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #304
  • Mar 30, 2011 5:47am Mar 30, 2011 5:47am
Quoting 45Condor
Well, yesterday's prediction was ignored by the market, and once again consigned me to the amateurs' bench.

Not to worry...

I currently see a spinning top forming on the daily, and the 4hr is looking a little 'toppy' for me.

Should anyone want to look, the monthly pin is not without substance. Is something brewing in Asia?
Who knows. I wrote the following last week:

Quoting mags01
It’s as if buying AUDUSD is a favourite pastime of many.

Cable and Euro are tanking. Yeah, let’s buy AUDUSD. Markets are slow today. So? Let’s buy AUDUSD. Chinese economy may be going downhill. Who cares! Let’s buy AUDUSD. Gee, I’m bored. Whatever, let’s buy AUDUSD.
  • #305
  • Mar 30, 2011 5:55am Mar 30, 2011 5:55am
With NFP around the corner, the emerging risk to the Aussie is a season of dollar strength.

AU has performed so well because in large part, the USD has looked rather sick by comparison. If this dynamic changes, it may not matter too much what equities do.

6 mins to fresh money with a USD bias, let's see what they do with UCHF and UJ. That should give us the lead.
  • #306
  • Mar 30, 2011 6:14am Mar 30, 2011 6:14am
I understand that dollar weakness, rate differential and commodity demand have all been contributing to the rapid rise of AUD. However, there is an undercurrent that I have not yet grasped, for negative Australian news has repeatedly shown no or little impact on its currency.
  • #307
  • Mar 30, 2011 6:31am Mar 30, 2011 6:31am
Quoting mags01
I understand that dollar weakness, rate differential and commodity demand have all been contributing to the rapid rise of AUD. However, there is an undercurrent that I have not yet grasped, for negative Australian news has repeatedly shown no or little impact on its currency.
The currency market is principally a vehicle for institutional investors, hedge funds, central banks etc. These large players are in it to make money, fundamentals are frequently ignored because of fresh capital flows looking to book a profit. It's not complicated in that regard.

It isn't always about facts and numbers, it's often more about TIMING. Cannot emphasize this enough. Understanding the capital flows into and out of this market, when they occur, both on a daily basis, cyclical monthly basis, quarterly basis etc, all of these things matter greatly.

After trading this market for several years or more, you become accustomed to having your brains spread around inside your head on the fundamentals, analytical minds find that hard to cope with, but you adjust to it or die (blow your account).

Which incidentally, is why, the longer I trade fx, the more inclined I am to pay more attention to the technicals (in tandem with timing) than anything else.
  • #308
  • Mar 30, 2011 7:30am Mar 30, 2011 7:30am
Hi Jade, How abt market news impact? There are plenty of technical indicator available for our reference - each of it give their own view .. sometimes one can tell you it is Sell, but the other one tell you it is Buy. Would like to seek some opinions from experience traders like you... Thanks in advance. (;
  • #309
  • Mar 30, 2011 9:09am Mar 30, 2011 9:09am
Flat A/U right now. Waiting for a dip to buy. Still holding G/U long from 1.5980. Should have took profit on the rise overnight, but did not. Will do it if given another chance. SL moved to BE. Good trades to all...

Regards,
  • #310
  • Mar 30, 2011 9:10am Mar 30, 2011 9:10am
Speaking of technicals, what I find unusual about this latest surge is a lack of significant retracement that fits a major fib number; see the last 3 fibs. The first two, from the large down move, seem much more normal.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd fibos.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #311
  • Mar 30, 2011 11:34am Mar 30, 2011 11:34am
http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...eculation.html

No QEIII for the US, and instead, interest rate rises. What remains to be seen is what the BoE and the ECB will do if the points mentioned in the aforementioned article transpire. Of course, if panic ensues, then a rush to commodities may see gold finally pop the 1500 mark and release itself from the manipulation - this, of course, possibly dragging the Aussie up with it.
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #312
  • Mar 30, 2011 11:56am Mar 30, 2011 11:56am
Hello all,

while waiting for new opportunities after this this beautifull ride from 98 I see market is a little too optimistic atm.
I'm certainly not an "informed trader" so actually don't belong in this thread, but what I see is that commodities are not performing very well lately while AU is rushing ahead.
Following pattern as shown below, I'll be interested (while being a commodity and AU bull) to consider shorts if 104 levels shows resistance.

D1:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Picture0015.jpg Size: 84 KB
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #313
  • Mar 30, 2011 12:21pm Mar 30, 2011 12:21pm
Quoting 45Condor
http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...eculation.html

No QEIII for the US, and instead, interest rate rises. What remains to be seen is what the BoE and the ECB will do if the points mentioned in the aforementioned article transpire. Of course, if panic ensues, then a rush to commodities may see gold finally pop the 1500 mark and release itself from the manipulation - this, of course, possibly dragging the Aussie up with it.
All of the people saying no QE III are the same people that were saying there would never be QE II. The Fed is independent. If the economy starts to go south again... you can bet your sweet hind parts that there will be more QE. I will agree, as it stands now, that there will probably not be a QE III, but the answer is still definetly up for debate. Keep an eye on what happens with the big bank negotions w/ the Feds on a settlement to the mortgage mess. If the banks agree to write downs and millions (yes millions) of mortgages can be rewritten and put back on a sustainable track.... then we might have seen the bottom of this whole mess. If not, and foreclosures resume at break neck speed, hold on to your hat. This whole mess started with housing, and it will not end until housing resumes on sure footing---- either by massive foreclosures or principal write downs.

Regards,
  • #314
  • Mar 30, 2011 3:28pm Mar 30, 2011 3:28pm
Quoting evelee8
Hi Jade, How abt market news impact? There are plenty of technical indicator available for our reference - each of it give their own view .. sometimes one can tell you it is Sell, but the other one tell you it is Buy. Would like to seek some opinions from experience traders like you... Thanks in advance. (;
Hi elelee8,

Trading the news is something of a coin toss imo. Sometimes news can already be factored in, so price doesn't respond with bullish momo, instead sells off after news. Or bad news can be greeted with further up traffic, because the news is now out of the way. Essentially, if price isn't at a technical or support level, better to wait (imo). But it does depend on your style of trading too, i.e. what size stops you use and your position size.

News however can be an opportunity to trade other pairs not in the news, e.g. if AU news is expected positive, the Kiwi sometimes cops it on the AUD/NZD cross. Equally, you need to see technical evidence that supports the trade regardless. There are also times when positive news for AU has a flow on positive effect for the Kiwi, but market seems to be doing a better job of making distinctions between the two these days.
  • #315
  • Mar 30, 2011 5:44pm Mar 30, 2011 5:44pm
Morning all,
Beware of news time movement on the AUDUSD.
Attached is an example of typical Price Action.
Starts with a search for stops or opening buystops and sellstops then if your SL is too close they will take them out also. Then notice a slow move up, that pulls in a number of buy trades…then a sudden downward move that may take out your SL. Or it could be the reverse, slow down and then up fast.
It all depends what the big boys are thinking.
Be careful.
Attached Image
  • #316
  • Mar 30, 2011 8:07pm Mar 30, 2011 8:07pm
Another new day, another new high!

Staying by the sidelines now, have no idea which direction it is heading.
  • #317
  • Mar 30, 2011 8:08pm Mar 30, 2011 8:08pm
Lord Almighty! Surely at some point there will be no shorts left... all suicide missions will have been completed! I am nearing my overbought zone of 375 to 425. Will start considering shorts there (am I really saying that?).

Regards,
  • #318
  • Mar 30, 2011 8:21pm Mar 30, 2011 8:21pm
closed my GU long for +120 pips! How did you make out on your long Jade?

Regards,
  • #319
  • Mar 30, 2011 8:52pm Mar 30, 2011 8:52pm
Hi,

I find this thread very helpful. I also trade Aussie and the posts here are very informative and useful.. Hope to read more from here. Thanks.
  • #320
  • Mar 30, 2011 9:48pm Mar 30, 2011 9:48pm
Quoting worldtrader
Hi,

I find this thread very helpful. I also trade Aussie and the posts here are very informative and useful.. Hope to read more from here. Thanks.
I agree. Nice thread. Nice informed opinions on some of the threads.
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