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vsa with Malcolm

  • #17,741
  • Mar 30, 2011 12:10pm Mar 30, 2011 12:10pm
Quoting pres78
I don't know that last 15min downbar has higher volume than the wide spread upbar but it didn't go anywhere. Not sure if we are seeing sellers or absorption??? Have to see what happens next.
Quoting tgwhbb
Hey Bel, for sure there were sellers there, but just wondering, couldn't that high volume also be interpreted as pushing through supply?
The time of day (1pm NY) has me suspecting here ... I'd not trusted the 15M prints before, because the M5 was telling me something different. I've been reading no interest in higher prices previously ... if we don't bounce from this 1.4124 area back up, then I think we've hit a wall of sellers and we could well return to 1.41/DPP. Just seems like stop running based on opportune comments.

EDIT: Actually, just noticing 1.41150 is yesterday's high + today's open (1.41126) - reasonable chance of bounce up here as a last possibility to demonstrate demand & support.
  • #17,742
  • Mar 30, 2011 12:25pm Mar 30, 2011 12:25pm
Quoting Beljevina
The time of day (1pm NY) has me suspecting here ... I'd not trusted the 15M prints before, because the M5 was telling me something different. I've been reading no interest in higher prices previously ... if we don't bounce from this 1.4124 area back up, then I think we've hit a wall of sellers and we could well return to 1.41/DPP. Just seems like stop running based on opportune comments.

EDIT: Actually, just noticing 1.41150 is yesterday's high + today's open (1.41126) - reasonable chance of bounce up here as a last possibility to demonstrate...
yesterday's high was 4148..are you talking about the NY session?
Change is the only constant
  • #17,743
  • Mar 30, 2011 12:26pm Mar 30, 2011 12:26pm
Quoting Beljevina
The time of day (1pm NY) has me suspecting here ... I'd not trusted the 15M prints before, because the M5 was telling me something different. I've been reading no interest in higher prices previously ... if we don't bounce from this 1.4124 area back up, then I think we've hit a wall of sellers and we could well return to 1.41/DPP. Just seems like stop running based on opportune comments.

EDIT: Actually, just noticing 1.41150 is yesterday's high + today's open (1.41126) - reasonable chance of bounce up here as a last possibility to demonstrate...
Probably won't know much more until new sessions tommorow.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #17,744
  • Mar 30, 2011 12:29pm Mar 30, 2011 12:29pm
Quoting Beljevina
The time of day (1pm NY) has me suspecting here ... I'd not trusted the 15M prints before, because the M5 was telling me something different. I've been reading no interest in higher prices previously ... if we don't bounce from this 1.4124 area back up, then I think we've hit a wall of sellers and we could well return to 1.41/DPP. Just seems like stop running based on opportune comments.

EDIT: Actually, just noticing 1.41150 is yesterday's high + today's open (1.41126) - reasonable chance of bounce up here as a last possibility to demonstrate demand & support.

Quoting tgwhbb
yesterday's high was 4148..are you talking about the NY session?
Yesterday's high was a boost during asia and london open. There was also us employment positive info coming in for us open.
Likewise, it would be hard to say until asia and london opens ,and the upcoming unemployment claims (which will have a slight impact after yesterday's spike).
  • #17,745
  • Edited 1:42pm Mar 30, 2011 12:29pm | Edited 1:42pm
Quoting tgwhbb
yesterday's high was 4148..are you talking about the NY session?
Sorry, my bad. 1.4150 was the previous day's high; should still have strong bounce meaning as that & today's open. But, doesn't look like the demand is there, like it would have been last week, based on the M5 prints.

EDIT: I am obviously not paying attention today lol; the above should be 1.41150 ... duh
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  • #17,746
  • Mar 30, 2011 1:04pm Mar 30, 2011 1:04pm
EU trapped atm
Looking at USDX I see 74 approaching and EU breaking north (later we will say, the bull-flag did it).
On the other hand it could be exactly the opposite

D1:
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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #17,747
  • Mar 30, 2011 1:07pm Mar 30, 2011 1:07pm
Daily EU bar thus far is looking very much like a SO... highest volume of the last few days and a long tail at the bottom. Still a few hours to go but this looks bullish to me. Will see if we get an upday tommorow to confirm SO of 4060.

Also have to see where we close out today.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #17,748
  • Mar 30, 2011 1:13pm Mar 30, 2011 1:13pm
My analysis of 5min EU today. Head wasn't in the right place so didn't get in on any of it;

Anyone got anything to add?
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  • #17,749
  • Mar 30, 2011 1:21pm Mar 30, 2011 1:21pm
Quoting KinsaleForex
My analysis of 5min EU today. Head wasn't in the right place so didn't get in on any of it;

Anyone got anything to add?
Looks good... will take a closer look later when I get home. Lot's of pips just playing the ranges.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #17,750
  • Mar 30, 2011 1:26pm Mar 30, 2011 1:26pm
Quoting KinsaleForex
My analysis of 5min EU today. Head wasn't in the right place so didn't get in on any of it;

Anyone got anything to add?
Nothing to add other than I really like your analysis Liam, really clear, especially the numbering. I need to pay more attention to trigger bars I think.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #17,751
  • Mar 30, 2011 1:28pm Mar 30, 2011 1:28pm
Quoting Steve Gill
Nothing to add other than I really like your analysis Liam, really clear, especially the numbering. I need to pay more attention to trigger bars I think.

Triggers are great Steve... jump on board
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #17,752
  • Mar 30, 2011 1:32pm Mar 30, 2011 1:32pm
Quoting Steve Gill
Nothing to add other than I really like your analysis Liam, really clear, especially the numbering. I need to pay more attention to trigger bars I think.
Cheers Steve, yeah get on the Trigger bandwagon! Pres and Hidden Gap brought me over to the good side and i'm enjoying my trading and understanding it all a lot more now.
  • #17,753
  • Mar 30, 2011 1:40pm Mar 30, 2011 1:40pm
Quoting KinsaleForex
My analysis of 5min EU today. Head wasn't in the right place so didn't get in on any of it;

Anyone got anything to add?
very nice! the 4th bar after the last marked test is a NS right at the 1.41 trigger. That is where I went long.
Change is the only constant
  • #17,754
  • Mar 30, 2011 1:51pm Mar 30, 2011 1:51pm
Quoting pres78
What do you mean reversals? Not really VSA based per say I have simply been buying at 4060 since Thursday every time we approach and I see SOS...
I mean yesterday your oil trades (at least one of them where you almost picked the bottom, where you said it's the risky one) ... today EU trade right after 2nd bar reversal (even if it was tough place for bears to crack, very risky without proper testing or ns, imo).
  • #17,755
  • Mar 30, 2011 1:57pm Mar 30, 2011 1:57pm
Quoting KinsaleForex
Cheers Steve, yeah get on the Trigger bandwagon! Pres and Hidden Gap brought me over to the good side and i'm enjoying my trading and understanding it all a lot more now.
Is there something you'd recommend I read to give me a heads up?
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #17,756
  • Mar 30, 2011 1:58pm Mar 30, 2011 1:58pm
Quoting tornado11
Just a thought I had....
Ok dude. First of all, it's not there yet and second there is always 50:50 chance that it goes up or down. If you say that you just had a thought or hunch, then there is one thread in FF I can recommend you
  • #17,757
  • Mar 30, 2011 2:04pm Mar 30, 2011 2:04pm
Quoting 1pipperhour
I mean yesterday your oil trades (at least one of them where you almost picked the bottom, where you said it's the risky one) ... today EU trade right after 2nd bar reversal (even if it was tough place for bears to crack, very risky without proper testing or ns, imo).
Yes I have been playing around with 2 bar reversals to see what I think... EU trades off 4060 have not even really been VSA based from anything more than the pure constant demand at that level. Each time since Thursday as we approached this level (other than Monday) I have simply bought as price was rejected at or passed through slightly and then bounced from 4060-4050 areas. Worst drawdown was 15pips to 4045 on Tuesday and the reward has been much greater.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #17,758
  • Mar 30, 2011 3:00pm Mar 30, 2011 3:00pm
Quoting PipPipPip
i am curious about thoughts on news like nfp's effect on vsa.....?
Thoughts, don't trade the news, trade what VSA tells you.

On good news expect it to rise first, maybe go sideways then rise a bit more and fall very fast.
"Hate the sin, love the sinner." - Gandhi
  • #17,759
  • Mar 30, 2011 3:06pm Mar 30, 2011 3:06pm
Quoting Steve Gill
Is there something you'd recommend I read to give me a heads up?
I've literally be looking at trigger numbers for about 3 weeks, study Pres (Jason?) and Hidden Gap's charts. That's where i've learnt everything. I've a few things bookmarked too if you wanna pm me.
  • #17,760
  • Mar 30, 2011 3:08pm Mar 30, 2011 3:08pm
Quoting pres78
Triggers are great Steve... jump on board
My 1 hour analysis for you Jason...
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