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Trading Major Lines

  • #581
  • Mar 30, 2011 4:03am Mar 30, 2011 4:03am
Quoting cfabian
Nomask, my annotations on your chart are correct? So you would have entered on the second green candle (as the first was an IB, no matter its body was bigger than previous candle) ?

Your visual SL is at the extreme of the candle marked "entry" correct?

Really liking this stuff. Thanks

http://i52.tinypic.com/jt2ids.jpg
Hello cfabian,

I hope we have many examples for entries from Nomask, as in my experience price action is often not so reliable on the 5min ( = we need really A+ candles from the 4h - & see examples from leftcoaster ).

As in your chart above, I have drawn in my entry. There are always demand and supply levels ( all timeframes ) and I try to enter at demand levels only, ( or, see to the left of the chart - when price has returned to a demand level, gets tested and rises again. )

Hope I can make myself clear. Nomask plse correct me if there is an error. I am always open to comments and criticism.

Good trading to all.



________________
michael
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Be like water.
  • #582
  • Mar 30, 2011 4:22am Mar 30, 2011 4:22am
And here a zoom-in where again you see how price returns to a demand level. The pinbars you show can be early signs of rejection of this level ( and hidden buying already ).



__________
michael
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Be like water.
  • #583
  • Mar 30, 2011 4:40am Mar 30, 2011 4:40am
Quoting msmarple
Hello cfabian,

I hope we have many examples for entries from Nomask, as in my experience price action is often not so reliable on the 5min ( = we need really A+ candles from the 4h - & see examples from leftcoaster ).

As in your chart above, I have drawn in my entry. There are always demand and supply levels ( all timeframes ) and I try to enter at demand levels only, ( or, see to the left of the chart - when price has returned to a demand level, gets tested and rises again. )

Hope I can make myself clear. Nomask plse correct me if there...
Quoting msmarple
And here a zoom-in where again you see how price returns to a demand level. The pinbars you show can be early signs of rejection of this level ( and hidden buying already ).



__________
michael


great stuff.#

enigma4x
enjoy my life ... and ride the waves - all what I do
  • #584
  • Edited 5:43am Mar 30, 2011 5:32am | Edited 5:43am
The EURUSD seems to be directionless and retest 50% fib level for few times. I think I have overexposed myself this week which lead to big drawdown on my account.

When in doubt, stay out from the market.

Edit: We will want to see and trade the "obvious", but not directionless like what we have now for EURUSD.
  • #585
  • Mar 30, 2011 6:53am Mar 30, 2011 6:53am
Quoting liangko
The EURUSD seems to be directionless and retest 50% fib level for few times. I think I have overexposed myself this week which lead to big drawdown on my account.

When in doubt, stay out from the market.

Edit: We will want to see and trade the "obvious", but not directionless like what we have now for EURUSD.

Don't go too far, it's gonna explode outta that range here in a day or so. But yes definitely best to sit out and watch at the moment.
  • #586
  • Mar 30, 2011 7:00am Mar 30, 2011 7:00am
Quoting deepblue44
Don't go too far, it's gonna explode outta that range here in a day or so. But yes definitely best to sit out and watch at the moment.
Is this 4hr candle a good price action signal for long?

Chart attached:
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  • #587
  • Edited 8:56am Mar 30, 2011 7:24am | Edited 8:56am
Quoting liangko
Is this 4hr candle a good price action signal for long?

Chart attached:
I personally am not even looking at it hard until it breaks up thru your 23 fib level or down past your 61 fib as it's currently in range. I have no idea where its gonna go, no one does. The candle u pointed could be an up signal....or....it could just lure you into more whipsaws and more capital loss. Nomask's method is aiming for 500-1000 pip gains....trying to fight out a 60-90 pip ranging cycle just isn't worth it. When it starts going where it's gonna go you'll know, then you get in and milk it dry. But watch for fake outs.....low risk high probability trades are your best defense against this.

Edit: I should add if you see compelling momentum...ie engulfing long candles on the 1H before it gets to the levels I mentioned then you may have an opportunity, just be nimble. Solid price action is solid price action no matter where it is....especially if it happens near the tip of a ranging wedge.
  • #588
  • Mar 30, 2011 7:44am Mar 30, 2011 7:44am
Up or down? It will reveal very soon.

Stay tune!
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  • #589
  • Edited 8:21am Mar 30, 2011 8:00am | Edited 8:21am
Quoting leftcoaster
Hi Nomask --

With new eyes and trying to understand the 'story' behind every candle, I'm studying the H4 chart (which you presented to us in your 5 week Recap post) and I'm focusing in on the H4 pinbars (and Double Top/Bottom).

Correct me if I'm wrong and please comment -- but I'm noticing the 'first' H4 (or weekly) signals are often the PINBARS off the the FIBO (pinbars being the key here) because if you waited for the next candle (which may be a bullish/bearish engulfing), you'd more than likely be taken out by some later price action....
We need three key ingredients in order to execute an entry.
1.location
2.candle shape/price action
3.timing
location is as one of the major lines,median lines(mostly when adding),s/r levels and fib levels.
price action is
pinbars or engulfing candles which are my favorites
and rarely 3 bar reversal or an inside bar.But first two of them most reliable ones.
timing is something we do not have a control over.We just get to know after we excute the trade.when I say timing I dont' mean the market hours but when the price starts making its big bold candles.
when we get first two aligned we enter and if we get the 3rd one aligned with our entry then we get our position survived.
..
I checked the chart you posted but not all of them were descent pinbars some were "almost pinbar"..I trade almost pinbars as well but only if they respect one of the locations mentioned above.
when you trade a pinbar on higher timeframes you don't wait for confirmation as our target is risking low pips for "possibly something big" so that possible big thing we expect is suppose to start within the very next candle after the pinbar.If we can enter in the next candle and price starts moving in our favor then we get the position moved to b.e which is our first target.
BUt when you make your entry on 5min chart you can't rely on a pinbar itself since it gives you the clue that opposites losing power but no winner yet.If we get a nice confirmation candle right after the pinbar , %90 of the time its the start of a move which at least let you move your position to b.e.
you can also study more on price actions and candlestick patterns in the forum.
but use only reliable ones by checking them on your chart to see if price really followed them.
you can also classify them similar to the attached chart.

p.s:better the shape candle has more the attention it gets.
And more attention brings more momentum which determines "timing" of the method.
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  • #590
  • Mar 30, 2011 8:07am Mar 30, 2011 8:07am
Quoting zusch
Thanks again Nomask. Very helpful!
thanks zusch.hope it is..

Quoting cfabian
Nomask, just catching up with all the thread. Just wondering if counter trading, what are your targets or what is the signal you look for to get out?

Cheers
target is always the next major line at least.
when we counter trade we want to catch the possible major move in the opposite direction to our hindsight.
  • #591
  • Mar 30, 2011 8:13am Mar 30, 2011 8:13am
Quoting cfabian
Nomask, my annotations on your chart are correct? So you would have entered on the second green candle (as the first was an IB, no matter its body was bigger than previous candle) ?

Your visual SL is at the extreme of the candle marked "entry" correct?

Really liking this stuff. Thanks
Hello cfabian.
The body matters though.
I would totally enter at the close of the first green candle IF I had my signal on the 4hr right.
don't ignore the previous candles when you making your entry.
you had two pinbars one almost inside bar (red one) and an engulfing candle (first green one) that engulfs the previous bearish inside bars' body.
besides they all respected the 61.8 fib level.
good entry opportunity.
  • #592
  • Mar 30, 2011 8:26am Mar 30, 2011 8:26am
Quoting liangko
The EURUSD seems to be directionless and retest 50% fib level for few times. I think I have overexposed myself this week which lead to big drawdown on my account.

When in doubt, stay out from the market.

Edit: We will want to see and trade the "obvious", but not directionless like what we have now for EURUSD.
you can try to simplify things more.
this week we had only one proper entry as per method.
and maybe at most one countertrade setup as well..
but they both died at b.e
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  • #593
  • Mar 30, 2011 8:31am Mar 30, 2011 8:31am
Quoting deepblue44
I personally am not even looking at it hard until it breaks up thru your 23 fib level or down past your 61 fib as it's currently in range. I have no idea where its gonna go, no one does. The candle u pointed could be an up signal....or....it could just lure you into more whipsaws and more capital loss. Nomask's method is aiming for 500-1000 pip gains....trying to fight out a 60-90 pip ranging cycle just isn't worth it. When it starts going where it's gonna go you'll know, then you get in and milk it dry. But watch for fake outs.....low risk high...
I aggree..
anything inside a consolidation can not be a good price action..It has to be out of the range.
  • #594
  • Mar 30, 2011 8:59am Mar 30, 2011 8:59am
Quoting nomask
I aggree..
anything inside a consolidation can not be a good price action..It has to be out of the range.

Ditto Nomask. I got burned a few trades with my hindsight long. I am out unitl it proves itself long. This week is pretty much a watching week until price to settle into itself. Right now the story is pretty confusing. My thought is it will break low under 4000 level by the end of the week, as now it is signalling against our hindsight, but who knows.
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Empower Your Mind
  • #595
  • Mar 30, 2011 10:27am Mar 30, 2011 10:27am
Dear Nomask, thank you for your very logical method to trade. The big institutions sell euro, so I wait a break out of 1.40 level on Friday. My 2 cents,
  • #596
  • Mar 30, 2011 11:00am Mar 30, 2011 11:00am
Why the big institutions sell euro now and why euro is so stable untill now? 1. China support euro in acordance with agreement between China and EU that China buy euro and EU gives many incentives for chinese goods. 2. Mr.Trishe try to support euro and avert a catastrofe for single currency and declared that Central bank will rise interest rate on April 7. He did not say 100% but everybody understood him. Why he did this eurozone killing declaration? in order to force european governemants to implement real measures for saving eurozone, but nothing happened and his promise left. Whats now? sure to rase interest rate in conditions when eurozone has practically no inflation, but many countries falling under burdens of debts which/interest rates on debts/ will be even more expensive form April. The act of disparation from the side of ECB. IMF is headed by french man and misuse american money in order to save euro. They lonched crises credit line for EU. Why USD will go up? because euro is sintetic currency. 2. FUNDAMENTALS IN USA are much stronger than in EU. 3. USA banks are much stronge than EU bank. 4. EU governements will not take real steps because of fear to lose home. By the way European banks are all broken and will for sure fall almost all.I repeat no one european bank is safe, everyone is broken.ECB print money more than FED in order to give every week fresh printed money to almost every european bank. It can not lasts for long time. It will be a big crises this year. Sorry for so big articel. Hope it will be as minimum of some interest,
  • #597
  • Mar 30, 2011 11:38am Mar 30, 2011 11:38am
Just took long from 1.4093.

I would like to see this 240 min candle close above 1.4148 to confirm a breakout and I will be stacking.
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Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #598
  • Mar 30, 2011 12:08pm Mar 30, 2011 12:08pm
Quoting vqtrader
Ditto Nomask. I got burned a few trades with my hindsight long. I am out unitl it proves itself long. This week is pretty much a watching week until price to settle into itself. Right now the story is pretty confusing. My thought is it will break low under 4000 level by the end of the week, as now it is signalling against our hindsight, but who knows.
let the market be confused ,not you..
when its ranging just throw couple price alerts out of the range and walk away until you get some move..
Quoting lite27
Dear Nomask, thank you for your very logical method to trade. The big institutions sell euro, so I wait a break out of 1.40 level on Friday. My 2 cents,
you're welcome lite.
If it makes a close below the 1.4 level and preferably lower than 1.39 then we get a 3 bar bearish reversal pattern completed on the weekly.
This gives us the choice of either we close our longs or keep them on until our new shorts take them out targeting possibly greater reward.
Both can be applied.Its just a matter of personal taste.
but still biased long until otherwise proven.
  • #599
  • Mar 30, 2011 12:17pm Mar 30, 2011 12:17pm
Quoting lite27
Why the big institutions sell euro now and why euro is so stable untill now? 1. China support euro in acordance with agreement between China and EU that China buy euro and EU gives many incentives for chinese goods. 2. Mr.Trishe try to support euro and avert a catastrofe for single currency and declared that Central bank will rise interest rate on April 7. He did not say 100% but everybody understood him. Why he did this eurozone killing declaration? in order to force european governemants to implement real measures for saving eurozone, but nothing...
thanks lite.
That was a good read eventhough I'm not into fundementals very much.
  • #600
  • Mar 30, 2011 1:29pm Mar 30, 2011 1:29pm
Quoting deepblue44
I personally am not even looking at it hard until it breaks up thru your 23 fib level or down past your 61 fib as it's currently in range. I have no idea where its gonna go, no one does. The candle u pointed could be an up signal....or....it could just lure you into more whipsaws and more capital loss. Nomask's method is aiming for 500-1000 pip gains....trying to fight out a 60-90 pip ranging cycle just isn't worth it. When it starts going where it's gonna go you'll know, then you get in and milk it dry. But watch for fake outs.....low risk high...
I agree with deepblue 100%. I will wait.




_____________
michael
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Be like water.
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