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  • #3,441
  • Mar 20, 2011 7:19pm Mar 20, 2011 7:19pm
Should we see a bounce here and expect some CHF strength due to current events? The euro seems very strong and something doesn't look right to me!
Also very interesting setup on NZDUSD but price as already had a small bounce near the level.
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  • #3,442
  • Mar 21, 2011 9:38am Mar 21, 2011 9:38am
  •  kk21
  • | Joined Sep 2009 | Status: ...the innocent bystander | 45 Posts
Quoting lovejoy80
.....but bear in mind at the moment as I touched on earlier that it is more about the expectation for the further interest rate rises that is playing a part in market moves, we know the Eurozone will most likely raise interest rates next month (and Trichet pretty much confimed this on Friday) and that there is speculation that the UK will follow within the next few months (though IMO this is plain stupidity) compare this to the NZD, CAD and AUD...NZD jus decreased interest rates, CAD just had a very poor inflation data and AUD stated wont be raising...
i think the expectation of earlier interest rate hike in the E/zone & UK, that u threw in the mix in ur analysis just about clears it up for me. being less experienced, i was looking at risk sentiments only.

thanks for taking the time and effort to explain this thorough
  • #3,443
  • Mar 21, 2011 9:42am Mar 21, 2011 9:42am
Quoting lovejoy80
I wouldnt be buying a currency just because Oil might rise, it's not the sort of trade I take. If there are signs of continued risk aversion then I'd expect the typical risk aversion currencies to rise. But the GJ JPY intervention does complicate this somewhat.
Thank You. That makes sense.
  • #3,444
  • Mar 22, 2011 5:09am Mar 22, 2011 5:09am
Interested to know if this pair is on your radar LJ. I'm somtimes a bit torn when deciding on an entry and it often leads to me missing a big move by a few pips. I know this is inevitable but i want to improve. In the example below where do you see the most likely area for a bounce. For me its between just below the 4850 area, the 50% fib area, somewhere in the middle or wait for some confirmation pa on smaller TF. Be great to hear your thoughts.

Cheers, Sean.
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  • #3,445
  • Mar 22, 2011 10:53am Mar 22, 2011 10:53am
Quoting Majestic12
Interested to know if this pair is on your radar LJ. I'm somtimes a bit torn when deciding on an entry and it often leads to me missing a big move by a few pips. I know this is inevitable but i want to improve. In the example below where do you see the most likely area for a bounce. For me its between just below the 4850 area, the 50% fib area, somewhere in the middle or wait for some confirmation pa on smaller TF. Be great to hear your thoughts.

Cheers, Sean.
My chart doesnt have that spike but I know most others do. For the touch trade I'd be entering near the start of the PPZ and thus the 4850 area looks good to me.
  • #3,446
  • Mar 25, 2011 6:57am Mar 25, 2011 6:57am
Would be great to know your thoughts on this trade LJ.
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  • #3,447
  • Mar 25, 2011 8:42am Mar 25, 2011 8:42am
Quoting Majestic12
Would be great to know your thoughts on this trade LJ.
For me the PPZ is very clear and the TL and 61fib dont lne up with it so it's a PPZ with no additional confluence...it did actually hold though as price did not close above it on the daily or 4H TF.
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  • #3,448
  • Mar 30, 2011 3:51am Mar 30, 2011 3:51am
Been waiting for EURCAD setup all week ... EAUD lining up at the same time tells a story too.

Risk exposure reduced now onto the next.
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  • #3,449
  • Mar 30, 2011 10:18am Mar 30, 2011 10:18am
I have been putting in more chart time, just looking at Daily charts bar highs and low and how strong of areas these are for touch trading.

I completely over looked the .8755~ level on the EURGBP. This is the type of thing I am looking over more and believe will help me get to the next level.

Did you notice this area LoveJoy or do you avoid the EURGBP?
  • #3,450
  • Mar 30, 2011 10:22am Mar 30, 2011 10:22am
Quoting unlv_tj
I have been putting in more chart time, just looking at Daily charts bar highs and low and how strong of areas these are for touch trading.

I completely over looked the .8755~ level on the EURGBP. This is the type of thing I am looking over more and believe will help me get to the next level.

Did you notice this area LoveJoy or do you avoid the EURGBP?
Yes I did, price just didnt come low enough for me...I was looking for 0.8750 as an entry... but on the daily TF you can see its a clear 1st time back to former resistance and a very strong daily/weekly strong PPZ level.
  • #3,451
  • Mar 30, 2011 10:43am Mar 30, 2011 10:43am
Quoting lovejoy80
Yes I did, price just didnt come low enough for me...I was looking for 0.8750 as an entry... but on the daily TF you can see its a clear 1st time back to former resistance and a very strong daily/weekly strong PPZ level.
Yes, thank you so much.

I completely over looked it this morning and didn't think about it until I saw price had bounced there and thought "wait a second of course price bounced right there".

I had a desc. trendline in the same area as well.
  • #3,452
  • Mar 30, 2011 10:49am Mar 30, 2011 10:49am
Quoting unlv_tj
Yes, thank you so much.

I completely over looked it this morning and didn't think about it until I saw price had bounced there and thought "wait a second of course price bounced right there".

I had a desc. trendline in the same area as well.
I had that too...its where price bounced on my chart...I had the PPZ a little lower and thats where I was waiting to pounce with my orders.

This wa a nice one today too...
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  • #3,453
  • Mar 30, 2011 10:56am Mar 30, 2011 10:56am
Quoting lovejoy80
I had that too...its where price bounced on my chart...I had the PPZ a little lower and thats where I was waiting to pounce with my orders.

This wa a nice one today too...
Oh my god, I had that exact area marked but quit looking before it got there.

Damn. I should have had a limit order there.

Great trade!
  • #3,454
  • Mar 30, 2011 12:02pm Mar 30, 2011 12:02pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Yes I did, price just didnt come low enough for me...I was looking for 0.8750 as an entry... but on the daily TF you can see its a clear 1st time back to former resistance and a very strong daily/weekly strong PPZ level.
I'm bit confused here, are you referring to the EG long today or last week. I assume last week as you mention the first time back. If so then what were the reasons for entering at the 50 rn as opposed to the former highs of resistance?.

Also i had an order on GBPCHF which i pulled - my reasoning was that FTA looked to be only 25 pips away and i would have had a 50 pip stop if i entered just below the 4850 level as was my plan. Factor in spread and it didn't seem worth the risk. How did you play this one LJ?

I also had a stop out on Gold today which broke out of a zone and came back to a very strong level where price has reacted strongly in the past. price reacted again and went about .8R in my favour. However some news hit the market (i think it was about portugal) and i watched what i though was already a good trade turn into a stop out. Frustrating day for me in all so hoping to learn something from it.

Nice trading Mark,

Sean.
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  • #3,455
  • Mar 30, 2011 4:34pm Mar 30, 2011 4:34pm
Quote
I'm bit confused here, are you referring to the EG long today or last week. I assume last week as you mention the first time back. If so then what were the reasons for entering at the 50 rn as opposed to the former highs of resistance?.


I was talking about today, not last week. There was no setup last week for a touch trade for as there was not enough confluence.
  • #3,456
  • Mar 30, 2011 4:37pm Mar 30, 2011 4:37pm
Quoting lovejoy80
I had that too...its where price bounced on my chart...I had the PPZ a little lower and thats where I was waiting to pounce with my orders.

This wa a nice one today too...
Stupid question, but were the g/chf and e/cad trades, just straight confluence trades? (besides the e/aud being at resistance too). Or were you looking more to trade these trades in the directions you picked, based on prior strengths and weakness'? IE you were much more interested in shorting g/chf, then say, echf (confluence aside). And you were more interested in longing e/cad, then you were e/aud, based on their strengths as well? Sorry, hope that makes sense. Trying to pick up what I can here, a bit of a slow process , though enjoy the challenge nonetheless. Thanks LJ
  • #3,457
  • Mar 30, 2011 4:41pm Mar 30, 2011 4:41pm
Quote
Also i had an order on GBPCHF which i pulled - my reasoning was that FTA looked to be only 25 pips away and i would have had a 50 pip stop if i entered just below the 4850 level as was my plan. Factor in spread and it didn't seem worth the risk. How did you play this one LJ?
Thinking about %R when considering a setup will stop you progressing as a trader IMO.

This setup is a classic example - you didn't take it because of the %R to the FTA but look where price went to - over 100 pips from where your entry would have been so virtually 2R.

So basically you threw away a potential 2R winner (at least - but it's the potential part that is important) because you considered the %R to the FTA as a reason not to take a great technical setup...do you see how this type of mindset will hinder your progress.

You have to get all thoughts associated with the %R and monetary value of a trade out of your mind and defintely not integrate them as part of your trading decision process...if you can remove this from your trading and the associated greed and fear that comes with these types of thoughts you'll be a long way down the right road as the biggest hurdle to becoming a consistently profitable trader is yourself.
  • #3,458
  • Mar 30, 2011 4:48pm Mar 30, 2011 4:48pm
Quote
I also had a stop out on Gold today which broke out of a zone and came back to a very strong level where price has reacted strongly in the past. price reacted again and went about .8R in my favour. However some news hit the market (i think it was about portugal) and i watched what i though was already a good trade turn into a stop out. Frustrating day for me in all so hoping to learn something from it.

Look at this setup again, why do you think this is a great setup...compare it to a setup like GBPCHF...what were your reasons for taking this setup?
  • #3,459
  • Mar 30, 2011 4:56pm Mar 30, 2011 4:56pm
Quoting Jlr
Stupid question, but were the g/chf and e/cad trades, just straight confluence trades? (besides the e/aud being at resistance too). Or were you looking more to trade these trades in the directions you picked, based on prior strengths and weakness'? IE you were much more interested in shorting g/chf, then say, echf (confluence aside). And you were more interested in longing e/cad, then you were e/aud, based on their strengths as well? Sorry, hope that makes sense. Trying to pick up what I can here, a bit of a slow process , though enjoy the challenge...
GCHF was just a good technical setup in itself...I wouldn't care what ECHF and UCHF were doing...if they were both at resistance then even better but it woulnd't be a deciding factor in whether I took the GCHF setup or not.

ECAD was the same...a good technical setup...but I noticed that EAUD was at strong support too, GAUD was at a double bottom and GCAD was at daily support...hence expecting a bounce in GBP and EUR against CAD and AUD...I know EUR and GBP will move together at times and that the path of least resistance on EG was long which all just adds a lot of confluence that ECAD had a damn high chance of bouncing to the FTA.

I couldn't really see a reason why we should get a big move up on ECAD and EAUD from a fundamental perspective i.e. I couldn't see any impending obvious catalyst that could cause a change in sentiment against these pairs over a few hours after the setups formed...but you never know, but I sure wasn't gonna exit the trade without taking some profit at the FTA.

Notice how ECAD came back down into the 'zone' and formed 1HR pin and then 1HR BUOB...some good signs of another test of the resistance area @ 1.3730.

So yeah they were both technical setups I would take in their own right but if you have find additional confluence from correlated pairs then it just gives even more weight behind the setup and 'allows' me to risk more on the setup as I know the probabilities are higher of getting to FTA etc.
  • #3,460
  • Mar 30, 2011 5:08pm Mar 30, 2011 5:08pm
Thanks so much, will continue on with the mindset aspects and try and focus more of my energy in those areas - i know it will take time though.

What i saw on the gold trade was a powerful breakout and pullback to a daily level which price had reacted to very strong in the past. There was also (inbetween) 50-60% conf so at the time it looked good to me. From a daily perspective things don't look that rosy though. I guess i was trying to be aggressive and catch a nice move upwards after price bounced from the top of the range.
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