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GU, GJ and EU Analysis Thread

  • #1,001
  • Mar 26, 2011 9:23am Mar 26, 2011 9:23am
Thanks, Stocky and I'm pleased you're keeping busy. I agree with your levels but what I meant in my post, though, was that I see 1.6 being tested and failing. The market got a disappointment in the recent implacability of the MPC minutes. We have a weekly bearish bar of high range off 1.64. Then we have a technical top pattern. Whether this will add up to sufficient momentum to break support remains to be seen, but 1.6 will be relatively easy to trade with an initial target of 1.59 support - December 2010 - but a further fall to technical target of 1.56 and lower on the cards.
Gone to a better place
  • #1,002
  • Mar 27, 2011 5:37am Mar 27, 2011 5:37am
Quoting Stocky Monk
...im keeping a close eye on strong daily resistance at 6278/ 6344. This area has rejected price numerous times since feb 17th. I cant see this area holding on its next test providing we get there. Medium term I still see 1.68 as a target but key levels at the moment for me are daily support holding at 5984 and daily res at 6278/6344.Stocky
Quoting smikester
...was that I see 1.6 being tested and failing. The market got a disappointment in the recent implacability of the MPC minutes. We have a weekly bearish bar of high range off 1.64. Then we have a technical top pattern. Whether this will add up to sufficient momentum to break support remains to be seen, but 1.6 will be relatively easy to trade with an initial target of 1.59 support - December 2010 - but a further fall to technical target of 1.56 and lower on the cards.
I would say that, in general, we are all seeing approximately the same levels and PA expectation.

On March the 2nd, I posted this chart: http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...4&d=1299104661 and explained how expected a move to the 1.64 region, before a drop to the 1.59 region, and then a potential push north the 1.69 region.

My opinion is that we are in phase 2 of the 1, 2, 3 play talked about from my March 2nd post, and so I am looking for any signs to take positions north. I guess I may scale myself in above any price drops. Not sure, yet.

Posted below is the same weekly chart almost a month later - 2 perspectives. The last candle is a little severe, and who knows how far price will continue to drop. However, I like the fact that this is the first time in a few years that the aqua MA of the red MAs is now at the bottom, and so therefore suggesting that price now wants to move up for a while. Of course, as with a lot of 1, 2, 3 plays, price may want to have a final confirmatory kiss of the red MAs recently broken through, and so may drop as far as the 1.5780 region. Who knows? Still, for me, any longer-term trades are now biased long.

And Spring is back - yeah!

And another European country is being pushed over the edge - boo!
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  • #1,003
  • Mar 27, 2011 9:34am Mar 27, 2011 9:34am
Hey everyone,

I think it safe to say Jan-Mar 2011 was well worth the patience.

Guess what!

It was so worth it that I'm retiring!

Between the JPY and silver, currently all accounts sitting with unexpectedly nice balances.

Been on a roll since Jan 2010. Decided to cash my chips out and live the good life. Maybe Cuba, I hear it's nice there

http://www.latinamericanstudies.org/...ba-florida.jpg

Probably won't be back here anymore.

Good luck and green pips to all!
  • #1,004
  • Mar 28, 2011 1:35am Mar 28, 2011 1:35am
Sinner-, I have very much enjoyed the exchanges with you, and the manner in which they have been conducted.

It would appear that you have attained that stage of financial independence which most of us here aspire to, and I congratulate you upon your arrival.

I suppose that all that is left to say is that I wish you good fortune for your future, and hope that you enjoy your retirement.

45Condor
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #1,005
  • Mar 28, 2011 2:17am Mar 28, 2011 2:17am
Quoting sinner-
Maybe Cuba, I hear it's nice there

Probably won't be back here anymore.
Yes, looking from space. All the best sinner...
Gone to a better place
  • #1,006
  • Mar 29, 2011 5:39am Mar 29, 2011 5:39am
Quoting sinner-
Hey everyone,

I think it safe to say Jan-Mar 2011 was well worth the patience.

Guess what!

It was so worth it that I'm retiring!

Between the JPY and silver, currently all accounts sitting with unexpectedly nice balances.

Been on a roll since Jan 2010. Decided to cash my chips out and live the good life. Maybe Cuba, I hear it's nice there

http://www.latinamericanstudies.org/...ba-florida.jpg

Probably won't be back here anymore.

Good luck and green pips to all!
Hi Sinner,

Congratulations on your new found fortune. Hope Cuba treats you well.

All the best mate.

Pop into the thread occasionally if time permits.

Stocky
  • #1,007
  • Mar 29, 2011 6:22am Mar 29, 2011 6:22am
Quoting smikester
Thanks, Stocky and I'm pleased you're keeping busy. I agree with your levels but what I meant in my post, though, was that I see 1.6 being tested and failing. The market got a disappointment in the recent implacability of the MPC minutes. We have a weekly bearish bar of high range off 1.64. Then we have a technical top pattern. Whether this will add up to sufficient momentum to break support remains to be seen, but 1.6 will be relatively easy to trade with an initial target of 1.59 support - December 2010 - but a further fall to technical target...
Hi smikester,

5984/1.60 zone is definately showing some buying pressure but like you say im not convinced it will hold just yet. We have a nice 4 hour pinbar formed on the 0900GMT candle yesterday on decent volume. Other than a 50pip scalp I took yesterday of this support area I am staying out of GU trades until either we see a bullish close today or a 4hr candle closing below the low of the 4hr pinbar 5938 in which case I will be looking for short trades like yourself down to 1.59/ 5820 area. Should this support hold then I will be looking for a 50%fib of the drop as first target which is also the 4hr 200MA area. We have Vpocs on the MP at 6112 and 6363 which is where I will expect price to perform some type of retrace on its way up.

Tradewell

Stocky
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  • #1,008
  • Mar 30, 2011 11:31am Mar 30, 2011 11:31am
http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...eculation.html

No QEIII for the US, and instead, interest rate rises. What remains to be seen is what the BoE and the ECB will do if the points mentioned in the aforementioned article transpire.

I was over on Jade Gate's AU thread today, and spoke of that pin on the Aussie monthly. Does somebody know something?

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=304
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  • #1,009
  • Apr 4, 2011 4:10pm Apr 4, 2011 4:10pm
A little busy with the coming of Spring, but watching the Dragon, and all things Yen related with an expectant eye.
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  • #1,010
  • Apr 12, 2011 3:43am Apr 12, 2011 3:43am
Quoting Stocky Monk
Hi smikester,

5984/1.60 zone is definately showing some buying pressure... ...at 6112 and 6363 which is where I will expect price to perform some type of retrace on its way up.

Tradewell

Stocky
1.6328 where you pointed out the single prints proved previously to be an important S/R (3/3) level which has now been violated with a high approximating to the "bell" patterns on your charts above the single prints. I'm now looking to you for your comment on this.

From my relatively simplistic point of view I see a consolidation of the "megaphone top" pattern so I would expect us to move to 1.6 again before I have to look for price action again.
Gone to a better place
  • #1,011
  • Apr 13, 2011 5:50am Apr 13, 2011 5:50am
Stocky,
I am echoing what mike said... we need you input on this as they seem to be stalling a bit in here.
I am still waiting for the single prints down to 6170 area from May 5th rise to be filled and then watch out for buy signs for a rise to 1.65ish. I hope it plays out as I have planned; if not I will sit on my hands and observe for good setups.
The news from UK yesterday and today have not been able to take it lower than 6240/50. Maybe this level will be the next support for another bullish run. just my 2 cents.
  • #1,012
  • Edited 6:04am Apr 14, 2011 5:17am | Edited 6:04am
Quoting smikester
1.6328 where you pointed out the single prints proved previously to be an important S/R (3/3) level which has now been violated with a high approximating to the "bell" patterns on your charts above the single prints. I'm now looking to you for your comment on this.

From my relatively simplistic point of view I see a consolidation of the "megaphone top" pattern so I would expect us to move to 1.6 again before I have to look for price action again.
Hi Smikester & 50d,

Hope all is well. Have put some charts together this morning of my laptop so apologies if the quality is not as good as usual.

Given the delayed response from me you may have a clearer view of price action by now as we have had some nice movement over the ast 2 days. I have put together a few charts showing what im looking at.

As smikester pointed out them singe prints at the 6328 area were filled and we seem to have formed the parameters for a large range visible on the 4hr between 6394 and 5936. Currently we are trading towards the top end of this larger range and have formed smaller ranges within on the 4hr highlighted by the orange boxes. If we can hold above 6344 we have a good chance of attempting a break of resistance at 6418 and then will be looking to make new highs for this month.

The MP does show a large area of single prints between 6167 and 6218. However given the upward momentum we are seeing it is more than possible for us to break resistance before coming back to fill them. This is why I am keeping a close eye on PA where we are currently trading and am waiting for price to break higher and form a range extension between 6425 and 6344. Should price get rejected here then them single prints are a sure target before we make new highs.

I don’t see us going low as 1.60 area especially with the strong upward momentum and have attached a weekly MP which shows the single prints and a strong VPOC at 6124 which should be a great area for price to bounce higher and continue a upmove.

Overall Im still bullish on GU and given the better than expected unemployment figures yesterday we may get another push higher very soon to break us out of the larger 4hr range. The single prints between 6167 and 6218 will be key in the overall move upto 1.68 area.

Stocky
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  • #1,013
  • Apr 14, 2011 11:18am Apr 14, 2011 11:18am
Hey Stocky. Thanks for the charts and the post I'll take some time to look at them this evening and for what it's worth I'll try to make some sensible comments.
Gone to a better place
  • #1,014
  • Apr 14, 2011 4:33pm Apr 14, 2011 4:33pm
Hey Stocky, will be bearing in mind your print concerns.

Hope married life is suiting you... ahem, appears to be keeping you away from the screen a little more, which is absolutely no bad thing in this market.

A few charts for GU with some basic FE projections.

Hope all else is okay with everyone.
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  • #1,015
  • Apr 15, 2011 2:35am Apr 15, 2011 2:35am
Great chart work everyone. I'm liking the orange boxes, Stocky. In fact, coincidentally, I used the lower one to bounce off yesterday. So, the trend looks stronger and my bearish sentiments are diminishing. The megaphone is still there but we already had the regulation 3 touches at the top, so maybe it won't play out. Still studying the Guppy profiles Condor. Starting to make more sense to me. Do they help avoid ranging markets?
Gone to a better place
  • #1,016
  • Apr 15, 2011 3:17am Apr 15, 2011 3:17am
Hi Smikester,

In short, yes. I do like to watch the 'general' flow of direction using TFs of a day and above, with the daily and weekly often correlating. The monthly is a different beast, and I try to read the thoughts of Hussin Naiji, Bones, JhonMonsalve etcetera on the daily candle chart thread to help me along.

For anyone interested, I placed my thoughts regarding trading a 4hr chart that is trending, here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=323

I like to see an increasing spread of the red MAs in one direction, and try to take entries in this direction as price on the blue MAs, making a sharp-ish turn in the opposite direction, make a kiss onto the red MAs, prior to resuming a correlation with the red MAs. Often I find these kisses are made in the London session, and usually move around news releases.

Entries are made on 15/5 min charts, but I do try to avoid any trades if my blue and red MAs are converged on a 1hr chart. Of course, one has to consider exposure tolerance and lot size when deciding what TF to trade, and SL to take, and I do change this from time to time depending on my schedule. If I'm around for the morning session, I want a definite trend on a 4hr, will wait for any move against this on a 1hr, and look for entries from the aforementioned 'kisses', whilst trying to pick the best entry point by looking at a 15/5 min chart. Sounds a pain in the ass... and although I would like to say that it is not, well, sometimes it is.

And to conclude, my targets are based on Fibonacci studies, and I do bear in mind S and R zones, and pivots.

...dear me, did not realize that I could make something that should be simple, seem so bloody complicated!


Quoting smikester
Great chart work everyone. I'm liking the orange boxes, Stocky. In fact, coincidentally, I used the lower one to bounce off yesterday. So, the trend looks stronger and my bearish sentiments are diminishing. The megaphone is still there but we already had the regulation 3 touches at the top, so maybe it won't play out. Still studying the Guppy profiles Condor. Starting to make more sense to me. Do they help avoid ranging markets?
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #1,017
  • Apr 15, 2011 7:14am Apr 15, 2011 7:14am
Quoting 45Condor
Hey Stocky, will be bearing in mind your print concerns.

Hope married life is suiting you... ahem, appears to be keeping you away from the screen a little more, which is absolutely no bad thing in this market.

A few charts for GU with some basic FE projections.

Hope all else is okay with everyone.
Hey 45C,

Yep married life is good....never thought id say that..lol Mrs starts her new job in May so the house will be empty for solid full time trading. To be honest having a break and taking a more relaxed approached to trading over the last few months has been surprisingly profitable with less trades being executed therefore less losses and holding the profitable trades much longer due to not watching the screens all the time. Basically following a trade plan and letting the TP's be hit.

Anyway looking forward to posting more regular very soon...keep up the good posts.

Stocky
  • #1,018
  • Edited 7:39am Apr 15, 2011 7:22am | Edited 7:39am
Quoting smikester
Great chart work everyone. I'm liking the orange boxes, Stocky. In fact, coincidentally, I used the lower one to bounce off yesterday. So, the trend looks stronger and my bearish sentiments are diminishing. The megaphone is still there but we already had the regulation 3 touches at the top, so maybe it won't play out. Still studying the Guppy profiles Condor. Starting to make more sense to me. Do they help avoid ranging markets?
Hi smikester,

Nice long entry yesterday of the lower range resistance then support around 1.63.... I took the same scalp trade virtually for 50pips approx and exited on the 30 min pin. 6344 seem to be holding as support for now and we seem to have formed a range extension. Im not convinced we will get a break of 6495 this afternoon with it being Friday but it is on the cards for sure next week. Im out of all positions for now and will be back Monday.

See you all then.

Stocky
  • #1,019
  • Apr 15, 2011 7:22am Apr 15, 2011 7:22am
Yes... I,too, am trying to take things a little easier.

Enjoy good Sir.
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  • #1,020
  • Apr 15, 2011 7:35am Apr 15, 2011 7:35am
Pound Yen

Geppy seems to be setup perfect for a bounce of strong weekly and daily support area 135.05. Im watching both GU and GJ closely. A break high in either pair will have both GU and GJ setup for a strong rally.

Stocky
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