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vsa with Malcolm

  • #17,701
  • Mar 30, 2011 7:48am Mar 30, 2011 7:48am
Quoting PipPipPip
what do you mean dead? may you kindly debrief?
"1.4100 even" may be a better way of saying it
  • #17,702
  • Mar 30, 2011 8:21am Mar 30, 2011 8:21am
what do you guys think about the gap after the weekend as a result of priced in for NFP?
  • #17,703
  • Mar 30, 2011 8:33am Mar 30, 2011 8:33am
Quoting PipPipPip
what do you guys think about the gap after the weekend as a result of priced in for NFP?
What gap? (BTW, I will probably respond afterwards that any 5pm/6pm EST Sunday night broker opening 'gap' has been 'closed', along with many an interbank being open 1pm EST for trading)

Re NFP, it has been less and less of a mover recently, and for EU, the bigger factor is what happens April 7 IMO. Trichet & co have repeatedly said rates are to go up - the market is presuming .25, so 1.42x/1.43 is beckoning - shooting beyond will depend on their hawkishness + sentiment, a formula that pretty much equates to "who knows what will happen."
  • #17,704
  • Mar 30, 2011 8:36am Mar 30, 2011 8:36am
Quoting Beljevina
What gap? (BTW, I will probably respond afterwards that any 5pm/6pm EST Sunday night broker opening 'gap' has been 'closed', along with many an interbank being open 1pm EST for trading)

Re NFP, it has been less and less of a mover recently, and for EU, the bigger factor is what happens April 7 IMO. Trichet & co have repeatedly said rates are to go up - the market is presuming .25, so 1.42x/1.43 is beckoning - shooting beyond will depend on their hawkishness + sentiment, a formula that pretty much equates to "who knows what will happen."
We are in a battle of the FOMC member(s) and EU hawks ATM...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #17,705
  • Mar 30, 2011 9:17am Mar 30, 2011 9:17am
The EurJpy look like it may be shaping up for another move up. 15 min has high volume testing at support with a strong uj todays and euro hitting bids at 4060.
  • #17,706
  • Mar 30, 2011 9:23am Mar 30, 2011 9:23am
We have inventory data today, I would not be surprised to see a shakeout below 103.75 before we move past our 52 week highs. Is anybody going to be trading post news?
  • #17,707
  • Mar 30, 2011 9:35am Mar 30, 2011 9:35am
Quoting Sonofsin5
We have inventory data today, I would not be surprised to see a shakeout below 103.75 before we move past our 52 week highs. Is anybody going to be trading post news?
Yes... Oil moves nicely on most days and is fun to trade.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #17,708
  • Edited 10:04am Mar 30, 2011 9:43am | Edited 10:04am
Sometimes, when you are not feeling too well, or getting lobster red on the beach, Mr Market hands you an invitation not to be missed. Weakness in the BG. the market took off too quickly so they brought it back to test that resistance line. I crossed my fingers and guessed weakness to come. Next bar confirmed 2 bar reversal. Should have been my entry point. Set my TP then dived back into bed..ahhh good medicine.. 31 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #17,709
  • Mar 30, 2011 9:46am Mar 30, 2011 9:46am
haha. gotta love that position.
  • #17,710
  • Mar 30, 2011 9:57am Mar 30, 2011 9:57am
Quoting Sonofsin5
We have inventory data today, I would not be surprised to see a shakeout below 103.75 before we move past our 52 week highs. Is anybody going to be trading post news?
Looks like they went even further and pulled it below 103.50. Im calling a shakeout.
  • #17,711
  • Mar 30, 2011 9:58am Mar 30, 2011 9:58am
Ah another long off 4060... Gonna retire of this level. LOL
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #17,712
  • Mar 30, 2011 9:59am Mar 30, 2011 9:59am
Quoting pres78
Ah another long off 4060... Gonna retire of this level. LOL
i didn't think it would go down to 4060, until i notice the fake SO's and continue to add in.
  • #17,713
  • Mar 30, 2011 10:00am Mar 30, 2011 10:00am
Quoting Sonofsin5
The EurJpy look like it may be shaping up for another move up. 15 min has high volume testing at support with a strong uj todays and euro hitting bids at 4060.
And it was, now shot up over 40 pips. Wow yen pairs look strong.
  • #17,714
  • Mar 30, 2011 10:02am Mar 30, 2011 10:02am
Quoting pres78
Ah another long off 4060... Gonna retire of this level. LOL
Are you trading reversals now?
  • #17,715
  • Mar 30, 2011 10:03am Mar 30, 2011 10:03am
Quoting pres78
Ah another long off 4060... Gonna retire of this level. LOL
I joined you, in at 1.4065 SL was at 1.4040 but now at B/E.

Interesting wedge on the on the 2H.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #17,716
  • Mar 30, 2011 10:07am Mar 30, 2011 10:07am
correct me if i am wrong, but we are in the mid range of the day, from here, it can go either way? But seeing that 1.4050-1.4060 has been tested over 5 times for the last days, it is showing strength, so I am hoping we see 1.4158-1.42 this week.
  • #17,717
  • Mar 30, 2011 10:14am Mar 30, 2011 10:14am
Quoting 1pipperhour
Are you trading reversals now?
There is strength. Heavy Buyers again? Yup. I'd becareful after adding in myself. Its been here at this level too many times. I have set sl at be.
  • #17,718
  • Mar 30, 2011 10:21am Mar 30, 2011 10:21am
Trickery abounds this NY morning and all of London. The M15 shows the just low of ~1.4055 being bought. But, the M5 shows selling into the upthrust and way less volume supposedly propelling it off 1.4055. Me thinks they're playing games with us.

So, we stop 50% of the rise and at pretty much the psych 1.410. Got a minor POC @ 1.408 and a potential bounce, but I'm thinking 1.407 and more gamesmanship. Yes that bounce off 1.4055 seemed pretty good, but I'm not sure NY is buying USD and euros ...

Personally, I think we're in distribution & profit taking, in prep for a April 7 upthrust and lows beyond that. The strength has waned. And 0.25 is priced in, with baggage in tow. Still thinking 1.4 and 1.395 tests prior to April 7.
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  • #17,719
  • Mar 30, 2011 10:29am Mar 30, 2011 10:29am
Quoting Beljevina
Trickery abounds this NY morning and all of London. The M15 shows the just low of ~1.4055 being bought. But, the M5 shows selling into the upthrust and way less volume supposedly propelling it off 1.4055. Me thinks they're playing games with us.

So, we stop 50% of the rise and at pretty much the psych 1.410. Got a minor POC @ 1.408 and a potential bounce, but I'm thinking 1.407 and more gamesmanship. Yes that bounce off 1.4055 seemed pretty good, but I'm not sure NY is buying USD and euros ...

[b]Personally, I think we're in distribution...
Agreed.
  • #17,720
  • Mar 30, 2011 10:33am Mar 30, 2011 10:33am
Anybody checking the USDCHF 4 hour?
Any thoughts ? low volume on an upthrust.
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