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Silent Service Method

  • #12,141
  • Mar 27, 2011 11:14pm Mar 27, 2011 11:14pm
Quoting o990l6mh
I've come to share that view. I've realized it's called the Boom Bust cycle for a reason.



I no longer even try to use the crystal ball to guess/predict when things will happen. That much I've learned...

I'll be waiting patiently until it happens
Agreed - and when it does happen - it will be obvious.
  • #12,142
  • Mar 27, 2011 11:15pm Mar 27, 2011 11:15pm
Quoting unlv_tj
LOL, nope, I turn 33 this summer, been out of college for almost 11 years....
Take a look at Raleigh, I have a friend that just moved there for an IT job, and he loves it.
  • #12,143
  • Mar 28, 2011 6:12am Mar 28, 2011 6:12am
This is a trade I am currently in. I think it might set us up for a mid/long term downtrend. However, I am being cautious on this signal as it is not in line with the weekly chart - there is a bullish reversal signal.

The chart below is the daily chart and it shows what I see on the chart and how I arrived at my entry level. Let me see what others think about this pair.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #12,144
  • Mar 28, 2011 9:13am Mar 28, 2011 9:13am
Quoting femfam
This is a trade I am currently in. I think it might set us up for a mid/long term downtrend. However, I am being cautious on this signal as it is not in line with the weekly chart - there is a bullish reversal signal.

The chart below is the daily chart and it shows what I see on the chart and how I arrived at my entry level. Let me see what others think about this pair.

Personally, the most important part of this post is "I am being cautious on this signal as it is not in line with the weekly chart - there is a bullish reversal signal."

I am attaching my chart, which of course is a weekly. I see that we might very well pullback to the 0.73 handle. But.....overall it's probably going up. (with as much certainty as one could have that is.)

I am not picking on you, but let me ask you this: Why are you taking this trade? If you already know you are going against the longer term signal, and I assume that you can see 0.73 as a potential support area, are the odds really in your favor? Can this trade work? Yes, most certainly it can. But then again.....can it fail? Yes, and I wouldn't be surprised if it did. If I were to get involved, I would like to see it fall a little bit, and then look for a bullish signal myself. I would recommend patience.

Again, not picking on you, but wanted to point this out, because I think this type of trade is too common for people, and especially the newer traders. I understand that you are thinking that there is no real reason for the Kiwi dollar to be rising in value, (an opinion I share.) but the truth is that is exactly what it's doing. Remember - fundamental traders have the luxury of being correct - eventually. The real challenge is if their account is still funded by the time that happens.

As far as Elliot Wave is concerned, I don't use it. So I really can't comment on that part of the trade.
  • #12,145
  • Mar 28, 2011 11:43am Mar 28, 2011 11:43am
This looks like my add on coming up. Got a lot going for it.
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  • #12,146
  • Mar 28, 2011 1:14pm Mar 28, 2011 1:14pm
Quoting 4xWheels
This looks like my add on coming up. Got a lot going for it.
Yep I liked the look of this but I went for the GBPAUD instead - mainly because I don't trust the yoorow.

It seems to be in an up trend(against US) - I still don't understand why but it stops me selling it - Eurnzd looks good as well.
  • #12,147
  • Mar 28, 2011 3:40pm Mar 28, 2011 3:40pm
While I wasn't paying attention.....this stupid chart happened. Looks like we are moving down again though. I shorted the USD/CHF because of a similar move in it as well....
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  • #12,148
  • Mar 29, 2011 4:04am Mar 29, 2011 4:04am
Quoting clockwork71
Personally, the most important part of this post is "I am being cautious on this signal as it is not in line with the weekly chart - there is a bullish reversal signal."

I am attaching my chart, which of course is a weekly. I see that we might very well pullback to the 0.73 handle. But.....overall it's probably going up. (with as much certainty as one could have that is.)

I am not picking on you, but let me ask you this: Why are you taking this trade? If you already know you are going against the longer term signal, and I assume that...
Thanks for your comment. First, I must point out that this is no EW trade. I don't use it. Second, the trade I took is within my trading plan. I had been waiting for that signal for some days now - it is not an impulse trade. Does that mean this trade will work? Maybe, maybe not. I have simply acted in accordance to my trading plan and I know where to go out when the trade is wrong. I do not second guess my signal and when I am totally confused as to the direction of a pair, I seek others opinion before even taking the trade or leave it out all together.

I appreciate your input, thanks.
  • #12,149
  • Mar 29, 2011 3:32pm Mar 29, 2011 3:32pm
next stop.....120
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  • #12,150
  • Mar 29, 2011 5:29pm Mar 29, 2011 5:29pm
Saw a job add posted on stocktwits.com feed earlier today. They are in SF and advert said, "must like walks on the beach.......and coding."

Might be worth a look as they are trading focused, in a singles city and near the beach

Stock twits btw is a good site if anyone is interested. Allows you to get the news very quickly during the day.

4x

Quoting unlv_tj
LOL, nope, I turn 33 this summer, been out of college for almost 11 years....
  • #12,151
  • Mar 29, 2011 8:45pm Mar 29, 2011 8:45pm
Quoting 4xAddict
Saw a job add posted on stocktwits.com feed earlier today. They are in SF and advert said, "must like walks on the beach.......and coding."

Might be worth a look as they are trading focused, in a singles city and near the beach

Stock twits btw is a good site if anyone is interested. Allows you to get the news very quickly during the day.

4x

They had better pay well if you want to live there. But I know a lot of thos places do in NoCal.
  • #12,152
  • Mar 29, 2011 8:50pm Mar 29, 2011 8:50pm
Interesting chart. The YCS is an Ultra Short Yen ETF. I am thinking about buying this as a long-term trade as it gets 200% returns against the spot. (In theory.) Notice the chart. Looks familiar doesn't it? The monthly close on the USD/JPY might end up being a pinbar. Could be interesting....
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  • #12,153
  • Mar 30, 2011 1:03am Mar 30, 2011 1:03am
Hi, Chris:

I like the volumn spike here. I am reading some VSA (Volumn Spread Analysis) these days and this down bar with ultra high volumn just like the selling climax (the panic weak holders selll all their sharings to the strong hands).

Regards,
Yang

Quoting clockwork71
Interesting chart. The YCS is an Ultra Short Yen ETF. I am thinking about buying this as a long-term trade as it gets 200% returns against the spot. (In theory.) Notice the chart. Looks familiar doesn't it? The monthly close on the USD/JPY might end up being a pinbar. Could be interesting....
  • #12,154
  • Mar 30, 2011 1:14am Mar 30, 2011 1:14am
I was in the trade by a 1H pinbar like bar. I don't know why I want to buy that fat boy (it is not a typical good-looking pin) at that time, but it really works. I will move my stop to BE pretty soon after 1.0310 (the previous high) is broken clearly.

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Quoting clockwork71
You and I must have different time feeds.....my broker doesn't show the pinbar. But....I think this pair wants to break out. Of course, 1.02 has to hold for that to happen. Because of this, I would place a stop a little lower than you suggest, but not too deep. Maybe something like 1.0150 or so. I am hoping to see a pinbar above or at 1.02 as a signal to go long. Maybe a bullish outside bar as well......I am not sure, just going to sit and wait to see what Monday brings.

Sorry about the delay - I am actually finishing the newsletter as...
  • #12,155
  • Mar 30, 2011 3:00am Mar 30, 2011 3:00am
Quoting syyzxsyf
Hi, Chris:

I like the volumn spike here. I am reading some VSA (Volumn Spread Analysis) these days and this down bar with ultra high volumn just like the selling climax (the panic weak holders selll all their sharings to the strong hands).

Regards,
Yang
Hey Yang,

You should download thinkorswim paper trading demo software as it will give you the price feed for free from the CME and you can get accurate volume information there. This can be referenced against the spot market to add conviction to your vsa because spot broker volume is never that accurate.

Cheers.
  • #12,156
  • Edited 5:21am Mar 30, 2011 3:04am | Edited 5:21am
Quoting clockwork71
Interesting chart. The YCS is an Ultra Short Yen ETF. I am thinking about buying this as a long-term trade as it gets 200% returns against the spot. (In theory.) Notice the chart. Looks familiar doesn't it? The monthly close on the USD/JPY might end up being a pinbar. Could be interesting....
Valid point. I am waiting to see the real insurer flows start moving back into JP though before taking a core yen short.

Assessors can't get to the damaged areas for the most part due to radiation and limited access still. When they start really having to lay up there will be concerted pressure on it to move higher in all likelihood. Intervention is never immediate and preemptive so it bodes well for another buy between 78-80 imho.

That said I will probably be proven wrong and be looking for an entry long around 88
  • #12,157
  • Mar 30, 2011 9:16am Mar 30, 2011 9:16am
Thanks for your reminder. Your point is true. Spot forex market does not provide a central clearing house. Somebody suggests to use the tick volumn instead. I will not use VSA as the trigger to enter a trade now. I just want to use it to confirm a trade (for example, if a selling climax occur at the pinbar, I will have more confidence). So I think it is Ok for now.

I am currently in the learning phase. But I think someday in the future, I will use VSA to trade the Chinese stock market.



Quoting 4xAddict
Hey Yang,

You should download thinkorswim paper trading demo software as it will give you the price feed for free from the CME and you can get accurate volume information there. This can be referenced against the spot market to add conviction to your vsa because spot broker volume is never that accurate.

Cheers.
  • #12,158
  • Mar 30, 2011 10:04am Mar 30, 2011 10:04am
Quoting syyzxsyf
I was in the trade by a 1H pinbar like bar. I don't know why I want to buy that fat boy (it is not a typical good-looking pin) at that time, but it really works. I will move my stop to BE pretty soon after 1.0310 (the previous high) is broken clearly.

Attachment

I know the bar wasn't the best looking one, but the more important thing was what should have got you into this position. That of course is the 1.02 level.....

Remember everyone, a trade can be thought of in the following order:

 

  1. Trend
  2. Support/Resistance
  3. Bar Shape (Pinbar, Bullish Outside Bar, etc.)
  4. Secondary and Tertiary indicators like Fibonacci/Moving Averages,etc

If you follow this formula - then you will come out ahead. It really is that simple.

  • #12,159
  • Mar 30, 2011 10:26am Mar 30, 2011 10:26am
Don't think this is a long-term buy and hold.....but it could be worth a dollar or two to the upside.....
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  • #12,160
  • Mar 30, 2011 11:20am Mar 30, 2011 11:20am
Quoting clockwork71
Don't think this is a long-term buy and hold.....but it could be worth a dollar or two to the upside.....
the are between 13.80 and 14.00 usd seems like a good target. gap close + round number + support/resistance zone. or let's say: a good place to take stop to break even.
interesting chart...
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