Order Flow - Achieving the mindset | Page 56 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Mindset Mindset Mindset!!! 19 replies

How to flow with the order flow? 26 replies

Maintain Your Mindset, by Linda Bradford Raschke 3 replies

Order Flow - Achieving the mindset - Part 2 37 replies

A new mindset 0 replies

Attachments: Order Flow - Achieving the mindset
Exit Attachments

Order Flow - Achieving the mindset

  • #1,101
  • Mar 27, 2011 7:36pm Mar 27, 2011 7:36pm
Quoting redbaron1981
Hey Guys,

Well I am still in the Eurusd short by the skin of my teeth had to move my stop from b/e back to its original position, but I was fairly certain that the dominating sentiment in Europe was bearish due to the Portugal situation and that the orders would come in on the short side of the Eurusd, hence why I didn't want to give up my position.

Apart from the major European issues the Usd has got a few market moving releases this week but non seem to be negative to usd strength. If order flow is still being priced against the estimates...
I've not posted here before and the "not posting charts" thing puts me at quite the disadvantage. I'm a functional illiterate dyslectic (I do better with pictures), but I had to comment on what I feel is a mistake.

If your short now on the EUR be careful. I'm not an order flow trader and may never be, but what I can tell you is that your in a short everyone is doing. In other words your with the crowd before the shake out.

Look for a stop run north,,,,,,,,, then you know your on the right side.

Or I'm full of it, and it goes south fast.

Good luck, and at least close some so your in profit.
  • #1,102
  • Mar 27, 2011 8:44pm Mar 27, 2011 8:44pm
Quoting PiptheRipper
Hi OGW.

I'm very glad you brought this up. I've been observing cable closely the last 2 weeks. This is a very good orderflow example. First of all have a look at the British economy very briefly. Things are not great, growth is very slow and they have their debt issues, although this seems to be the norm, but generally things are stable. Cable has been appreciating against the Dollar the last couple of months. Main reason probably since investors are expecting a rate increase.
...
Hi PiptheRipper,

Thank you for your well thought reply.
Rate hike expectations does send currencies higher, no doubt about it but it can't be that simple. You woudn't want to buy a Zimbabwe $ no matter how high their rates are... Now the UK are not Zimbabwe but how does tiny
.25% rate hikes protects you when inflation is above 4%? It doesn't. But here again, if you expect cable to rise anyway that may not be a concern?
So money will flow to currencies with higher rates only if it is expected that it will lead to an appreciation of the currency??
  • #1,103
  • Mar 28, 2011 1:52am Mar 28, 2011 1:52am
Quoting nasir.khan
Hmmm Interesting,

19% of Australia's exports go to Japan ( which includes 30% of cocking and 50% of thermal coal of total coal exports). Trade balance between these two is 62 Bln increased from 55 Bln from previous year.
Going forward rebuilding in Japan will magnify the exports in Australia such as Iron ore and Coal. Also...
Something about Copper, Australia's biggest export (i think). The article sugjests that demand could pick up inn some months.

http://on.ft.com/iglbhC

Let me know if anyone have any problem regarding reading the article i have saved it in word file.
.
  • #1,104
  • Mar 28, 2011 3:00am Mar 28, 2011 3:00am
looks like that aud barrier and stops behind it are history...
  • #1,105
  • Mar 28, 2011 4:29am Mar 28, 2011 4:29am
Started reading articles this morning and here is what i have concluded,

Some weeks ago people wanted to get long in EU and GU cause of rate hike expectations and everyone was hoping for markets to go down and have discounted prices for their longs.

Well people now u have your chance, cable is down 400 pips from the high's and fiber is some 190 pips.

But nobody is sure now that if they really want to buy, people are not sure if its really a good trade to go long now looking at inflation, protests etc in England and situation in Eurozone and specially the recent hawkishness from the feds. Hmmm maybe the bull trend is actually over now.

So now nobody is comfortable with this scenario and they not as sure to buy as they were on high's wishing for lower prices.

Problem is when markets were trading on high's everyone wanted a good price to get in, Now if u want discounted price u need an event to do it for u offcourse market wont fall down cause of MACD divergence and economic certainty staying still, it needs some risk events, ones like i mentioned above. I mean u cant have both certainty and discounted prices in the same plate, or again simply saying buy when u see blood in the streets.(articles stating EU endangered have started poping up)

Maybe uptrend has really came to an end maybe not, who knows?

But that is the cycle things run around in the markets and at best i dont want fall to that i.e not to think like the herd.

So what can i do?

I will stay with my earlier sentiment bias ( which was to look for an event to take market away from direction of actual outcome ) ( rate hike). But being rigid and buying blindly also wont make sense.

So i have to think about what could make now people to buy EU and GU again and how i am gonna make a fortune from it?
.
  • #1,106
  • Mar 28, 2011 4:46am Mar 28, 2011 4:46am
Quoting nasir.khan
Started reading articles this morning and here is what i have concluded,

Some weeks ago people wanted to get long in EU and GU cause of rate hike expectations and everyone was hoping for...
Some good bullish pa on GU would be nice
  • #1,107
  • Mar 28, 2011 5:49am Mar 28, 2011 5:49am
Quoting Greenhaze
Some good bullish pa on GU would be nice
Why not i am already long Eu 1h buob and any pa bar closing above BRN on gu would be nice,.. oops its not j16 thread. lol

But what i am trying to do here is to anticipate the events that could make those PA bars and more importantly make them work. Now a question will pop in every PA-SR trader's head.

Instead of all the hard work and thinking, Why not than just trade PA bars on SR?????????

Every one who trades PA bars will agree with me on the dilemma of exits. Entries are easy, puting stops are easiest but exits are difficult and exits are what determine how much u make. Should we get out at next SR? should we get out at 1:1? should we trail the stops? and list goes on but there is no one method that could be applied to every situation efficiently.

What an orderflow mindset does (for me is that) is that it solves that problem very efficiently.You just not entering cause of that PA bar alone now but you have a whole bigger perspective on the market now. When u know what are the reasons other than that PA bar for your trade it simply means that when those reason have played out and does not exist anymore or does not effect the market anymore its simply time to exit the trade. Also there could other be reasons that could have bigger counter effect on market and also could hint an early exit.

Just Imho.
.
  • #1,108
  • Edited 7:09am Mar 28, 2011 6:58am | Edited 7:09am
Quoting nasir.khan
Why not i am already long Eu 1h buob and any pa bar closing above BRN on gu would be nice,.. oops its not j16 thread. lol

But what i am trying to do here is to anticipate the events that could make those PA bars and more importantly make them work. Now a question will pop in every PA-SR trader's head.

Instead of all the hard work and thinking, Why not than just trade PA bars on SR?????????

Every one who trades PA bars will agree with me on the dilemma of exits. Entries are easy, puting stops are easiest but exits are difficult and exits...
Cool man, work on something that fits you as a trader cause in the end you have to build it, nobody can do that for you.

I like to fade s/r (orderflow/supply-demand area's) instead of wait for the james16 PA bars and stuff, but that's just my preference. I use my PA skills leading into the trade, on the reactions, and after I'm in the trade.

Regardless of your preference for entry, I think the main thing is we want to watch for what is moving markets, while watching for possible shifts or changes in the near future to the current hype.

what is the market focusing on? what's the main theme right now.

interest rate talk/rumors, growth, world equity markets, commodities especially oil and gold, any rumors on BIG option interest geopolitcal events, etc etc. But we don't have to be economists.

I play intraday, so I am just caring about whats going on now, today or recently. So along with other markets and real money, I am watching for rumors on big buyers/sellers and intraday options or any news events.

Playing longer term... since markets as we know, are anticipating in nature, constantly discounting and pricing in probabilities... they tend to turnaround from uptrends on good news and vice versa on bad news. I could be wrong on that but that makes sense to me. To help us, we can use major longer term key levels.

Anyway, I've tried to say all that a few times... so I'll make that my last, cause I feel like a broken record.
  • #1,109
  • Mar 28, 2011 8:09am Mar 28, 2011 8:09am
Quoting Monroe
looks like that aud barrier and stops behind it are history...

Yeah, unfortunately I was asleep while it happened.
  • #1,110
  • Mar 28, 2011 11:46am Mar 28, 2011 11:46am
Hey, how many of you all have read The Way of the Dollar? I ran through it once a few months ago and I have started it again. DS recommended it in one of his posts a few years back.

In terms of achieving the orderflow mindset, did anyone find this book helpful?
  • #1,111
  • Mar 28, 2011 11:50am Mar 28, 2011 11:50am
Quoting Monroe
Cool man, work on something that fits you as a trader cause in the end you have to build it, nobody can do that for you.

I like to fade s/r (orderflow/supply-demand area's) instead of wait for the james16 PA bars and stuff, but that's just my preference. I use my PA skills leading into the trade, on the reactions, and after I'm in the trade.

Regardless of your preference for entry, I think the main thing is we want to watch for what is moving markets, while watching for possible shifts or changes in the near future to the current hype.

what...
I have been fighting psychological issue's regarding Greed and overtrading for last 2 years and it was a dreadful period. Cursing myself every day for not following the rules and etc. I also read a lot of stuff about psychology but dint help to much either.

So all this time i was trying change who i am to be able to stick my rules and methodologies which simply never suited my personality.

Than some 2-3 month ago i found something that suited my personalty instead of me being getting modified to suite it and it eliminated 90% of those problems in just a week with no hard effort that i used to do before that.

So in end its all about finding what suites you, sadly which most people wont achieve. You cannot change who u are, u are who you are. Instead find something that suites you.

I am not a pure j16 or technical trader. I use everything to gauge market sentiment and once i am confident about them i can just take a touch of SR or a PA bar or even a good looking bearish/bullish bar in my trade direction. Though i am not sure about using short term Orderflow techniques to finnes my entries cause i have a lot of reading to do about it and also i will go live in some months so i dont want to change things and start doing something entirely new just as i am about to go live but defiantly will keep on learning the new stuff.

Yeah we are both saying same things for quit some while now, maybe we should include in our signature.

P.S: I think i am drifting away from the essence of this thread looking at last couple of posts so sorry for that guys.
.
  • #1,112
  • Mar 28, 2011 11:57pm Mar 28, 2011 11:57pm
Quoting OGW
Hi PiptheRipper,

Thank you for your well thought reply.
Rate hike expectations does send currencies higher, no doubt about it but it can't be that simple. You woudn't want to buy a Zimbabwe $ no matter how high their rates are... Now the UK are not Zimbabwe but how does tiny
.25% rate hikes protects you when inflation is above 4%? It doesn't. But here again, if you expect cable to rise anyway that may not be a concern?
So money will flow to currencies with higher rates only if it is expected that it will lead to an appreciation of the currency??...
Hi OGW.

First of all I'm no expert on this. I'm still learning every day and only from early this year I've started to free myself from the Technical Analysis mindset.

I can't answer your questions directly, but I'll share my thoughts. Regarding inflation. It definitely can't be good when inflation is high while interest rates are very low. Since then all the money people are saving in affect gets less and less. However inflation is rising globally and it seems to me it is mostly due to the high oil and commodity prices, which drives up the prices of food etc.

One of the main reasons for this bull run in commodities might be because of the fact that US interest rates have been so low, it has become the preferred currency for the carry trade. Investing in countries with higher interest rates against the dollar to receive a good yield return. In affect weakening the dollar and causing commodities to rise.

Also the fed printing all those bucks, might be partially responsible as well.

Coming back to the cable, why then would you want to buy it, even if a interest rate rise is expected, if you can rather invest in the ZAR or any other emerging market which has a much higher interest rate than cable?

Well maybe then the rise is not due to the carry trade. I think the high inflation is still looked at positively since it's only been high for a short period of time and is expected to stall and even fall. Higher inflation might also imply that interest rates will have to be raised more than once in a short period making it more attractive.

The rate increase probably only generate money to flow into cable in the short term, making it a good short term investment, hence the rising of cable.

Just my inexperienced opinion.

Cool Runnings...
  • #1,113
  • Mar 29, 2011 7:58am Mar 29, 2011 7:58am
hi guys,

i have a question regarding eu right now: sources say that stops are below 40. we are now at 67. so 40 is our target. but the question is: where should i enter the market? the target is clear but where can i sell with a minimum of risk?

this question is a bit more practice oriented than the other theoretical stuff about stops and options.

the question is: how can i make money with the information about stops? what do i have to look for?
  • #1,114
  • Mar 29, 2011 5:22pm Mar 29, 2011 5:22pm
Quoting fandarana
hi guys,

i have a question regarding eu right now: sources say that stops are below 40. we are now at 67. so 40 is our target. but the question is: where should i enter the market? the target is clear but where can i sell with a minimum of risk?

this question is a bit more practice oriented than the other theoretical stuff about stops and options.

the question is: how can i make money with the information about stops? what do i have to look for?
Fandarana,

Firstly I really do not intend to be aggressive in my response to your post, however I can only say that I would be surprised if any of the major contributors to this thread would do as I have done and at least quote your previous post.

If you were to even imagine the amount of time that people myself being one of them have put into knowing the answer to your question I'm am certain that you would not be surprised to find your post falling on deaf ears.

Now I'm not going to leave you completely in the dark on this subject as the only way I have found the answers to a lot of questions is by using trading related forums just like this one. If you really are interested then I suggest you start by doing just like most here have done and go through all of Darkstars, Grkfx, unnamedplyr, Scotty B and Gaston posts. You will then either know the answer to your question or at least when posting be able to word your questions in a far better manner than just:

"how can i make money with the information about stops? what do i have to look for"

Unfortunately FF does not have as many intelligent posters as it did a few years ago and I have a feeling its because of people not interested in learning the basics of trading, rather just tell me what you learned in 10 years trading in 5 mins attitude. But this thread in particular has attracted a few of these very helpful people back and the last thing that I and am certain everyone else here wants to see is them disappear again.

Good luck,

James.
  • #1,115
  • Edited 6:09pm Mar 29, 2011 6:04pm | Edited 6:09pm
Quoting redbaron1981
Fandarana,

Firstly I really do not intend to be aggressive in my response to your post, however I can only say that I would be surprised if any of the major contributors to this thread would do as I have done and at least quote your previous post.

If you were to even imagine the amount of time that people myself being one of them have put into knowing the answer to your question I'm am certain that you would not be surprised to find your post falling on deaf ears.

Now I'm not going to leave you completely in the dark on this subject...
I agree 100%.

Don't rob yourself of the journey.

I'm not there yet myself. Far from it. I am pouring over research papers and books on microstructure all day long. Manually backtesting. Plus being glued to threads like this.

I am trading with a different technique but each day I seem to find something else that adds to my knowledge and that I can incorporate into my current trading style. Even if this was the only benefit, I can handle that as my account balance is still going the right way

My goal is to be trading with a pure "Order Flow" mindset in a while, but until then all of this work I am putting in is adding demonstrably to my current win rate and confidence in the markets.

I remember FTI saying once it took 2 - 2.5 yrs to train up an "inst" trader, then another couple of years to gain intuitive competence. If it takes that long for the guys in the big leagues, with the benefit of constant mentoring, how can one forum response make a proftable trader?

Someone could tell you if "x then y" but that doesn't cover any of the multitude of permutations and differentiating factors that each trading situation brings. End point is you'd have a mechanical entry system with a much reduced win rate.

Like I said I'm not there yet, but the journey is the key aspect.

Sorry to get all "Grasshopper" on everyone

I know I'd feel robbed if someone just said here are the stops, here is the play. It would be insulting to those of us putting in the hard yards.

No offense meant, I just wanted to put across that nothing comes without effort. But the effort is well worth it
Drink Coffee. Do stupid things faster with more energy.
  • #1,116
  • Mar 29, 2011 6:40pm Mar 29, 2011 6:40pm
Quoting forexpenguin
Don't rob yourself of the journey.
Well put, in a nutshell!
  • #1,117
  • Mar 29, 2011 10:17pm Mar 29, 2011 10:17pm
Quoting forexpenguin
Someone could tell you if "x then y" but that doesn't cover any of the multitude of permutations and differentiating factors that each trading situation brings. End point is you'd have a mechanical entry system with a much reduced win rate.
Good point here, forexpenguin. When I first started reading DS's posts, I was hoping for an "if x then y" system, but I never figured out how to make it happen. Originally, that frustrated me, but now it encourages me. Now I know that when I do achieve the mindset, my specific style of trading might not be exactly how DS, or grkfx, etc. are trading, but I also will know that my style fits me and I had the discipline to figure it out (and will have the discipline to stick to it).
  • #1,118
  • Mar 30, 2011 1:54am Mar 30, 2011 1:54am
You know, a year ago I would have jumped all over that data feed, bought the service and wasted a few weeks trading it, hoping it would be my holy grail.

Now I just chuckle. Thankful I'm not sucked into traps like that anymore (well, besides DS' book that is!).

Back on subject, I have a much better understanding of market microstructure (although incomplete I would imagine), found a quote from merlin several years ago

Quote
currency trading (on a fundamental level) is all about interest rates. two things drive interest rates: inflation and employement.

so I have been researching trying to gain at least an elementary understanding of interest rates and how they are used on the macro level to guide economies, and I have been reading an intro book on basic economics.

On the reading list is an intro to game theory, as well as a shitload of research papers.

Maybe this magical data feed is all I need, and I can bypass all the work
  • #1,119
  • Mar 30, 2011 2:10am Mar 30, 2011 2:10am
Hey Guys,

Its such a shame the way this thread is going. There is so much information posted herein that if these guys who have been posting here recently, actually took the time to read through from post 1 they could really gain a wealth of information on several styles of Order Flow trading.

From now on anyone posting here who has clearly not read through from page 1 will go straight on my ignore list. I also recommend maybe Carnegie to try and impose some kind of posting restrictions on this thread.

Lets try an get back on track I'm preparing a nice long post with a lot of information I've recently found by rereading a few threads which I'm certain a few of the regular posters here may benefit from.

On wards and up wards as they say!!

Good luck

James.
  • #1,120
  • Mar 30, 2011 2:11am Mar 30, 2011 2:11am
Quoting Jimmy Jones
You know, a year ago I would have jumped all over that data feed, bought the service and wasted a few weeks trading it, hoping it would be my holy grail.

Now I just chuckle. Thankful I'm not sucked into traps like that anymore (well, besides DS' book that is!).

Back on subject, I have a much better understanding of market microstructure (although incomplete I would imagine), found a quote from merlin several years ago



so I have been researching trying to gain at least an elementary understanding of interest rates and how they are used...
Yes, a basic economics book is on my list as well. But since I usually trade intraday, I'm more interested with talk/rumors/rhetoric whatever... from CB speakers that will effect trading on the day or week. Just that talk alone moves prices, as you can see with UJ...

Some other things to note are the end of quarter flows and how they may effect things.
1 trader viewing now