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vsa with Malcolm

  • #17,661
  • Mar 29, 2011 4:12pm Mar 29, 2011 4:12pm
Quoting Steve Gill
Hi PipPipPip

You've lost me I'm afraid - the most recent previous high was in November, and the high of that weekly bar was 1.4290. Are you talking about it closing 2 weeks ago above the close of that November's weekly bar? (which closed at 1.4030)
Hi Steve,

Correct, that 2 weeks ago also closed above of May 2009's weekly bar. I was also mainly referring to May 2009's weekly bar (1.41587), just cause it shot straight through november, and taking out may. Last week then printed a downbar testing our november's recent high.
Looking back to May 2009, it looks like we will be making waffles, for how long? I have no idea.
  • #17,662
  • Mar 29, 2011 4:17pm Mar 29, 2011 4:17pm
Quoting PipPipPip
Hi Steve,

Correct, that 2 weeks ago also closed above of May 2009's weekly bar. I was also referring to May 2009's weekly bar (1.41587). Last week then printed a downbar testing our november's recent high.
Looking back to May 2009, it looks like we will be making waffles, for how long? I have no idea.
OK, now you're doing a really good job of confusing me

Why do you see May 2009's price as important when there has been PA in that area right through May/June/July 09, Jan 10 and more recently late Oct / early Nov 2010? I always felt that the more recent historic PA at that price level was most important.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #17,663
  • Mar 29, 2011 4:22pm Mar 29, 2011 4:22pm
Quoting Steve Gill
Looking at the futures daily (with corrected volume thanks to photoshop) I'm agreeing that it looks bullish. Todays volume according to 1439 is slightly higher than yesterday, indicating based on the upbar (just!) some supply but not excessive supply.

I'm thinking perhaps its best to agree with you - that way if it goes up I agreed with you, and if it goes down then I was right lol
Well there we go then who needs charts ... Or if you agree with me and it goes up you could become known as that "other crazy guy"... Besides you have gone on record with your plan so now your screwed either way .
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #17,664
  • Mar 29, 2011 4:32pm Mar 29, 2011 4:32pm
Quoting Steve Gill
OK, now you're doing a really good job of confusing me

Why do you see May 2009's price as important when there has been PA in that area right through May/June/July 09, Jan 10 and more recently late Oct / early Nov 2010? I always felt that the more recent historic PA at that price level was most important.
Thats what i thought when i was learning volume. When i noticed that there were no more volume to test on background, I started to do tests dating back to the next closest strength.

For instance, I studied november's high and its turn around. It tested may 2009's. The test started since october 2009. For four weeks, it went up and down, but only reached below May 2009's volume.

May 2009 is the next closest background strength/volume to compare after november 2010's high close.

I hope this helps.


I will try to upload a chart, my mac is acting funny again.

EDIT:
i forgot if there were any major news (NFP & the like) back in may 2009.
  • #17,665
  • Edited 5:24pm Mar 29, 2011 4:55pm | Edited 5:24pm
Quoting pres78
Well there we go then who needs charts ... Or if you agree with me and it goes up you could become known as that "other crazy guy"... Besides you have gone on record with your plan so now your screwed either way .
Here you go Steve...

Thursday we saw a SO at 4060...

Friday we saw stopping volume at 4060... look at all that volume and then we had an upbar, NS, SO and another upbar to end the week... obvious buying in that wide spread downbar.

Monday... well Monday was a complete weekend markdown / SO but bulls were still able to recover and close above 4060...

Today we started with an early Asia SO and then a NS pin bar (yes a pin bar but also a downbar) and would have been a nice long entry off the 1hr. and then we had a 2 bar reversal at the top on a volume surge but the bar closed well off it's low... A drop off in volume on the next bar but the bears took out the wick and the we see what turns out to be stopping volume of sorts right at 4060 again. Two SO just for good measure and to really screw with the guys who were still in short. The next bar says a lot to me... highest volume bar of the day for me but what does it do... an UT after 2 SO's??? HMMM!!!

What was all that volume we went up and then down to close on the lows but the spread wasn't anything to write home about for being the highest volume bar. Then we see why SM sent out a probe and bought the whole way down as I am quite shore many retailers were selling that bar but as we can see there was selling there.

HH today and a SL also a higher POC and that virgin POC above still un-tested.

Edit... 4140 is an important level for the bulls and 4060 for the bears...

Edit 2... uploaded 4hr chart and seem to have lost my 1hr... GRRR!!! (all my comments were based on my 1hr chart)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu22.gif Size: 52 KB
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #17,666
  • Mar 29, 2011 8:14pm Mar 29, 2011 8:14pm
Hey, sorry dude, new here. I was just saying I expect a bounce to the 1.4200-1.4250 area coming off the 38 % fib level of the Daily move from 3-11 to 3-22 to test that high again.

Quoting 1pipperhour
Where is that picture Dr. G is using quite often? Oh, here it is:
  • #17,667
  • Mar 29, 2011 8:54pm Mar 29, 2011 8:54pm
Quoting Sonofsin5
Testing 132
Still long gj
Uj looks to be gunning stops at 83.00 Eur still moving back and forth taking stops. This has been the first time in a long time that I can remember favouring the yen crosses to the EUR and Pound.
  • #17,668
  • Mar 30, 2011 12:17am Mar 30, 2011 12:17am
Steve

The eu could be some kind of bull flag. The trick for longs is to wait for a break out of top of flag then buy on a test.

But then again what do I know my lucky church sticker is for Croatians and here only the Muslim religion reigns supreme...




Quoting Steve Gill
Looking at the futures daily (with corrected volume thanks to photoshop) I'm agreeing that it looks bullish. Todays volume according to 1439 is slightly higher than yesterday, indicating based on the upbar (just!) some supply but not excessive supply.

I'm thinking perhaps its best to agree with you - that way if it goes up I agreed with you, and if it goes down then I was right lol
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #17,669
  • Mar 30, 2011 2:45am Mar 30, 2011 2:45am
I'm looking to go long. We have stopping volume as I marked. The 1 hour is a head and shoulders which makes this a test of the neck line.

http://i54.tinypic.com/14t3dbc.gif
  • #17,670
  • Mar 30, 2011 2:46am Mar 30, 2011 2:46am
Looking at cable here, sellers are hard to find it seems.
  • #17,671
  • Mar 30, 2011 3:22am Mar 30, 2011 3:22am
EU long on No Supply
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 28.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #17,672
  • Mar 30, 2011 3:24am Mar 30, 2011 3:24am
Quoting Clifton
I'm looking to go long. We have stopping volume as I marked. The 1 hour is a head and shoulders which makes this a test of the neck line.

http://i54.tinypic.com/14t3dbc.gif
First TP hit. I'm aiming for yesterdays high with the rest of this position 1.4145.

No more risk on the trade, let's see if it can get there.

http://i53.tinypic.com/255pbt4.gif
  • #17,673
  • Mar 30, 2011 3:39am Mar 30, 2011 3:39am
Looks like there are sellers at 1.4118 - 1.4125 level:
Last two bars on M15: ultra high volume wide spread up bar(effort) and then relative narrow spread bar with wick with high volume (no result yet).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: vsa_h1.jpg Size: 217 KB
  • #17,674
  • Mar 30, 2011 3:44am Mar 30, 2011 3:44am
thanks to prez for his trading strategy on trigger bars..after the first HVB which is effort to rise with positive results, all dips were supported by the trigger, and low vol test gives entry and a nice touch of the trigger...now is there a second effort to rise with results in process?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 30mar vsa buy.gif Size: 23 KB
Catching a falling knife, no, I'm just trading the Gartley!
  • #17,675
  • Mar 30, 2011 3:58am Mar 30, 2011 3:58am
Nice to see people got in on the Cable and Eddie tests this morning. Was a bit late getting up so I missed them!
  • #17,676
  • Mar 30, 2011 4:20am Mar 30, 2011 4:20am
Quoting ChinaWombat
thanks to prez for his trading strategy on trigger bars..after the first HVB which is effort to rise with positive results, all dips were supported by the trigger, and low vol test gives entry and a nice touch of the trigger...now is there a second effort to rise with results in process?
The real thanks for introducing trigger to the thread goes to HG... all I have done is show how I use them in a slightly different / expanded way.

Nice trade and set-up... you actually had a 2bar reversal and then the test... lots of nice signs to get in to a safe long.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #17,677
  • Mar 30, 2011 4:23am Mar 30, 2011 4:23am
Quoting Oxford
EU long on No Supply
That bar was an upbar so it's not a NS.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #17,678
  • Mar 30, 2011 4:26am Mar 30, 2011 4:26am
Quoting pres78
That bar was an upbar so it's not a NS.
9 bars before that was a test of the second highest volume upbar trigger level. We had an upbar after the trigger bar and then a low volume test closing on the trigger.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #17,679
  • Mar 30, 2011 4:43am Mar 30, 2011 4:43am
Quoting Flynchenberg
Looks like there are sellers at 1.4118 - 1.4125 level:
Last two bars on M15: ultra high volume wide spread up bar(effort) and then relative narrow spread bar with wick with high volume (no result yet).
Feel like comunist because I'm replaying to my own question. lol

Seb
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: vsa_h1a.jpg Size: 204 KB
  • #17,680
  • Mar 30, 2011 4:54am Mar 30, 2011 4:54am
Thanks a lot for correction! I really appreciate.

Quoting pres78
That bar was an upbar so it's not a NS.
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