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vsa with Malcolm

  • #17,641
  • Mar 29, 2011 10:10am Mar 29, 2011 10:10am
Quoting malcolmb14
Hope you ate right . I took a sell 1.4080 due to supply hitting market at 60 min into us session on a 30 min chart .

Of course it was done from iPhone on beach in Dubai . If I get stopped I will blame it on the sunstroke... Or was it the coronas ...
There's only one word I can say about this ... ADDICTION!
  • #17,642
  • Mar 29, 2011 10:19am Mar 29, 2011 10:19am
Quoting Sonofsin5
Yeah there was more selling at that level than there has been in a few days. Ill be trading on the beach at playa del carmen come friday morning.

The problem with Euro is these buyers at 4050. Go away please.
IMHO 4060 level won't go down easy. If it does give I don't think we will see 1.4 broken this week.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #17,643
  • Mar 29, 2011 10:24am Mar 29, 2011 10:24am
Quoting pres78
IMHO 4060 level won't go down easy. If it does give I don't think we will see 1.4 broken this week.
Were you meaning if it doesnt give?
  • #17,644
  • Mar 29, 2011 10:26am Mar 29, 2011 10:26am
Quoting pres78
IMHO 4060 level won't go down easy. If it does give I don't think we will see 1.4 broken this week.
There's only one word I can say about this also ... NFP on Friday. Who knows.
  • #17,645
  • Edited 10:57am Mar 29, 2011 10:27am | Edited 10:57am
Quoting malcolmb14
Hope you ate right . I took a sell 1.4080 due to supply hitting market at 60 min into us session on a 30 min chart .

Of course it was done from iPhone on beach in Dubai . If I get stopped I will blame it on the sunstroke... Or was it the coronas ...


Amy way the British tan is going well gone from deep pink to lobster red lol.

Quoting Sonofsin5

The problem with Euro is these buyers at 4050.
We seem to be battling with sept's high closing at 4045. it looks like it will be very difficult to break/close considering where the weekly was. If it will break, the daily shows strength of not anytime soon.

EDIT:

If we go down to test 3980, I am going to be bullish until i see a break. the weekly is very convincing, at least for my observation.
  • #17,646
  • Mar 29, 2011 10:31am Mar 29, 2011 10:31am
Took two long trades off a couple of 2 bar reversals... 1st one riskier then the 2nd.

Purple line is trigger
Yellow line at bottom is entry 1, second one up is entry 2

Red lines from left to right...

1. Trigger bar, next bar down... short entry?
2 & 3. NS followed by increased volume up bar with double bottom and close higher than high of bar 2... entry 1 (risky as I am below PAL and hull)
3 & 4. NS followed by increased volume upbar. This entry I liked because bar two went lower and touched my trigger to the pip (hidden test) and closed up on increased volume showing me that we picked up lots of buyers. Had it been sellers we would have broken and closed back below the trigger.

Oil has been fun to trade with some nice swings all giving great VSA entries.
Attached Image
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #17,647
  • Mar 29, 2011 10:33am Mar 29, 2011 10:33am
Quoting Sonofsin5
Were you meaning if it doesnt give?
If 4060 does give way (which I don't think it will) I see 1.4 holding up this week and not giving way to the bears.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #17,648
  • Mar 29, 2011 12:41pm Mar 29, 2011 12:41pm
I believe we will be back at 4200 by weeks end.


Quoting pres78
If 4060 does give way (which I don't think it will) I see 1.4 holding up this week and not giving way to the bears.
  • #17,649
  • Mar 29, 2011 2:25pm Mar 29, 2011 2:25pm
1 and 2 hrs seem to have tested the previous area of selling 1.408. Maybe asia will take us back to 1,41.
  • #17,650
  • Mar 29, 2011 2:43pm Mar 29, 2011 2:43pm
2 days in a row very little volume in the US session. Both times the price has been in this narrow 20 pip area 1.4080 to 1.4100. Is this positioning ahead of NFP?

Compared to last week I'd have considered this accumulation, but this price action looks like distribution to me (on the 2 hour). Every rise has been hit with supply, and then the smart money withdraws. I do accept there is some strength at 1.4050/1.4060 but its not as clear as I'd like.

Thoughts?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur 2h 29th mar 11.jpg Size: 173 KB
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  • #17,651
  • Mar 29, 2011 2:53pm Mar 29, 2011 2:53pm
Quoting Sonofsin5
So I am now long off of this setup posted yesterday. Things have played out perfectly. Uj has broken 82 which was the area stacked with offers. We should have a little ways to run.
Testing 132
  • #17,652
  • Mar 29, 2011 2:58pm Mar 29, 2011 2:58pm
Quoting Steve Gill
2 days in a row very little volume in the US session. Both times the price has been in this narrow 20 pip area 1.4080 to 1.4100. Is this positioning ahead of NFP?

Compared to last week I'd have considered this accumulation, but this price action looks like distribution to me (on the 2 hour). Every rise has been hit with supply, and then the smart money withdraws. I do accept there is some strength at 1.4050/1.4060 but its not as clear as I'd like.

Thoughts?
I see as much if not more strength in the buying at 4060. Could well be positioning for NFP... 4100 gives a nice running point for both 4000 and 4200... Personally I see us going back up to finally take a run at 4280 high from last year before we ever see 4000 give way. But's that just me trying to go against the grain.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #17,653
  • Mar 29, 2011 3:01pm Mar 29, 2011 3:01pm
Interesting point of view as usual. In 8 hr chart I see we made no lower lows today and the stopping volume today has the highest volume in days.
  • #17,654
  • Mar 29, 2011 3:01pm Mar 29, 2011 3:01pm
Quoting pres78
I see as much if not more strength in the buying at 4060. Could well be positioning for NFP... 4100 gives a nice running point for both 4000 and 4200... Personally I see us going back up to finally take a run at 4280 high from last year before we ever see 4000 give way. But's that just me trying to go against the grain.
Jason, would it be possible to post a chart pointing out where you see the strength, or edit mine? Just to help my understanding - I want to see if I agree with you or not
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #17,655
  • Mar 29, 2011 3:02pm Mar 29, 2011 3:02pm
OOOps...here is the chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_8 Hours_snapshot.png Size: 24 KB
  • #17,656
  • Mar 29, 2011 3:08pm Mar 29, 2011 3:08pm
Quoting PipPipPip
AreA confirmed on 1 hour bar. Going long baby. Stopping at 4265-4331. Sl at 3985.

From up to, pshort and targeting 3988
This pa movement on the high volume on no market opens is looking pretty buff. I am hoping asia will give me a good position to add in again.


Quoting Steve Gill
Jason, would it be possible to post a chart pointing out where you see the strength, or edit mine? Just to help my understanding - I want to see if I agree with you or not
At least from my comprehension, the weekly looks really strong. Two weeks ago, it closed above a major high dating back to may. It makes last week look deceiving.

EDIT: may, not september
  • #17,657
  • Mar 29, 2011 3:19pm Mar 29, 2011 3:19pm
Quoting Steve Gill
Jason, would it be possible to post a chart pointing out where you see the strength, or edit mine? Just to help my understanding - I want to see if I agree with you or not
Later when I get home... I don't even know if I agree with me... LOL.

4060 is 38.2 fib retrace of leg 3 and has withstood multiple attempts with no daily close below. Also we made much more headway to the top side from open today then we did to the downside. The whole move down today as far as I can tell was driven by one hawkish FOMC member who talks like everything is suddenly ok in the us. We really are in a battle of the hawks ATM...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #17,658
  • Mar 29, 2011 3:33pm Mar 29, 2011 3:33pm
Quoting tornado11
I believe we will be back at 4200 by weeks end.
Where is that picture Dr. G is using quite often? Oh, here it is:
Attached Image
  • #17,659
  • Mar 29, 2011 3:59pm Mar 29, 2011 3:59pm
Quoting pres78
Later when I get home... I don't even know if I agree with me... LOL.

4060 is 38.2 fib retrace of leg 3 and has withstood multiple attempts with no daily close below. Also we made much more headway to the top side from open today then we did to the downside. The whole move down today as far as I can tell was driven by one hawkish FOMC member who talks like everything is suddenly ok in the us. We really are in a battle of the hawks ATM...
Looking at the futures daily (with corrected volume thanks to photoshop) I'm agreeing that it looks bullish. Todays volume according to 1439 is slightly higher than yesterday, indicating based on the upbar (just!) some supply but not excessive supply.

I'm thinking perhaps its best to agree with you - that way if it goes up I agreed with you, and if it goes down then I was right lol
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #17,660
  • Mar 29, 2011 4:05pm Mar 29, 2011 4:05pm
Quoting PipPipPip
At least from my comprehension, the weekly looks really strong. Two weeks ago, it closed above a major high dating back to may. It makes last week look deceiving.

EDIT: may, not september
Hi PipPipPip

You've lost me I'm afraid - the most recent previous high was in November, and the high of that weekly bar was 1.4290. Are you talking about it closing 2 weeks ago above the close of that November's weekly bar? (which closed at 1.4030)
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
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