question: crossing over to winning side | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

A dashboard over the crossing of two moving average 1 reply

Anyone here like me on the opposite side of a winning trade? 2 replies

Dual indicators on one window crossing over different values 2 replies

programming question - two different indicators crossing 0 replies

any one familiar with crossing over intelliscript 0 replies

Attachments: question: crossing over to winning side
Exit Attachments

question: crossing over to winning side

  • #1
  • First Post: Mar 28, 2011 10:59pm Mar 28, 2011 10:59pm
i'm a fast, technical market reader, using price action & volume to identify buying & selling pressure/ob&os conditions. i love the language of the market, reminds me of reading music & doing audio, and how it is teaching me to become more disciplined and be realistic. i have paid dearly in the last three years for this experience, and as i open up more and more to the learnings i have more success as a result.

i have a strong winrate and lots of wins, but small gains because i tend to exit at first sign of a possible change in hands. i figure i would rather make shovelfuls than try and run a bulldozer, and i am willing to put in the work to do it. it is hard for me stay in a trade, perhaps because of prior losing experience i am not as willing to let it go against me, i dunno. my trading log looks like a ton of small gains, some mediums, and occasional losses that are 4x my avg win.

i would love advice recommendations etc on how to have more faith in my trades vs. over-managing them. i've read all the books and i love reading but i'm open to anything. yoga and journaling help me. but without a mentor/mirror it can take a long time to see the things that are right in front of your eyes

bit of a ramble lol
thanks for reading
good hunting
  • #2
  • Mar 28, 2011 11:18pm Mar 28, 2011 11:18pm
Hi, im very new to forex myself but Im currently being mentored by a guy whos competent. My advice to you is to research scaling out, this provides a safe means of limiting losses. With a consistent approach to your trades you can concentrate more on your strategy rather than profits or losses. If your strategy is 51% correct and you scale out you should find yourself making progress, its working for me and I can assure you im almost a complete idiot!
  • #3
  • Mar 28, 2011 11:34pm Mar 28, 2011 11:34pm
You mention that journaling helps. How do you record your trades? Do you state your plan, or reason for entry? Do you have a plan?

If you think you're closing trades too soon, make a point of looking back at the charts two hours (or a day, whatever works for you) after you've closed the trade. Do this for every trade (I know, it can be a hassle), and summarize your stats at the end of the week/month. What do you see? Should you have stayed longer in your trades? Can you identify any patterns?

Another point worth examining is whether your lot size is too large. If you're mostly right [in your analysis], the occasional small loss shouldn't bother you. Ideally, it should not be bigger than your avg win, but smaller. However, if you still manage a positive expectancy, than it's OK.
  • #4
  • Mar 28, 2011 11:48pm Mar 28, 2011 11:48pm
Quoting djarum11
i'm a fast, technical market reader....
First, congratulations to your ongoing success.
i know it's a feat in itself. although, as u know this is only the beginning of a much longer journey.

im not the best to give you advice.. but just wanna share some insights.
1. study/practice more to increase experience, consistency & confidence.
2. try to exercise more discipline & patience.
3. have multiple positions on entry. this way, u can bank a few pips, then leave some remaining positions open to take advantage of potential trends.
4. try to slowly increase your position size. sooner or later you will find your 'sweet spot' position size. as u gain more confidence & consistency, u can increase it further.

all these (especially 1 & 2) will help with your concerns regarding 'over-management' & letting trades run (having 'faith').

hope this helps
  • #5
  • Mar 29, 2011 12:11am Mar 29, 2011 12:11am
that's why some peoples said that trading is "a psychology game".... Technic/skill or strategy is only a part of trading...,not the most important thing but we do we need that.. they said that psychology is take more part in trading..to let the profit run is not an easy way...it's need not only a strategy but also self control...,one more time Self Control..correction in the market is a must, we can't avoid that..


"you'll know that to lose your position is something
nobody can afford; not even John D. Rockefeller."

--taken from-'Reminiscences of a Stock Operator'--



java.



ps: if you like reading, that book is one of the best.

.
I will be the number one Manager.
  • #6
  • Mar 29, 2011 1:11am Mar 29, 2011 1:11am
djarum11

You're getting a lot of great advice on the technical side and MM of trading, no problem with that ...

I look to trading success in a different light ...

IMHO, you'll need to first delve deeper inside yourself to find why you close too early or why you over-manage your trades.

Remember when you enter, you must let go and KNOW at that moment after entry, you have NO control on your specific trade, it will either win or lose.

The only thing you can control and have a decision over are four things (MM)

1. Do I want to exit for a win, small or big?
2. Do I want to exit for a small loss?
3. Shall I exit BE?
4. Do I want to exit for a big loss?

I will always decide 1,2 and 3 religiously!

I'm not saying not to exit early when you have a planned target and you see something different at the time, just don't let emotions rule your decision and ACCEPT that with trading, anything can happen and be happy with the result, win or lose.

I guess what I'm trying to say is acceptance is key to be successful in this business.
  • #7
  • Edited 2:09am Mar 29, 2011 1:55am | Edited 2:09am
that is exactly the problem why many newbs fail. They wanna have high win-rates. The higher the better. But that is where ego comes in for many new traders. They love high win-loss, cause it makes them feel good. They are right most of the time.

Read any books from real traders or hedge fund managers, most of them advocate high risk:reward and having a low win-loss.

So, in the end, all your hard work trying to keep up the win-loss will hinder you in any advancement.

Quoting djarum11
i'm a fast, technical market reader, using price action & volume to identify buying & selling pressure/ob&os conditions. i love the language of the market, reminds me of reading music & doing audio, and how it is teaching me to become more disciplined and be realistic. i have paid dearly in the last three years for this experience, and as i open up more and more to the learnings i have more success as a result.

i have a strong winrate and lots of wins, but small gains because i tend to exit at first sign of a possible change in hands. i figure...
  • #8
  • Mar 29, 2011 2:23am Mar 29, 2011 2:23am
Discipline, rules, techniques, mentoring, etc, may all have their value.

But maybe the simple fact is that it takes time and practice to perfect an art, be it ballet, chess, or trading.

Three years may seem like a lot of time, and you may expect to be a master by now. There's a professional concert pianist living downstairs in my house. She has "made it", but oh does she practice...all day long... Maybe that's the life of a trader too?
  • #9
  • Mar 29, 2011 2:23am Mar 29, 2011 2:23am
Quoting djarum11
without a mentor/mirror it can take a long time to see the things that are right in front of your eyes
I agree with you on that, which is why I got myself a coach it made all the difference to me. It's great that you've got in touch with the market flow for your entries.

If your losers are 4x your average win then you have to investigate your system. You've identified it's your exits that matter. Ideally you should make your winners 3x (or more) than your losers. That means you should have a well researched profit target. If you don't have clear profit targets, and a known probability for these profit targets, then you will doubt your system. You've clearly worked out your win:loss ratio on your entries, so now you have to work out the win:loss ratio on your planned targets (given those kind of entries).

I use fibs for my targets and I know the probability of the target getting hit is just over 75%. That's why when I ensure the best entry I can I sit back and just let my profit target get hit, or let my stop get hit. It takes the psychological pressure off me. Often price makes awful looking reversals and I just ignore them because I know the probability of my exits.

Whatever method you use for determining your targets, you need to sit back and wait for those conditions to set up (ideally have targets that are objective) and ignore all the noise that happens on the way to those targets. If your targets can be set in advance on your platform so much the better. If not, here's what will help.

You need to become 'mentally automatic' on your exits. To get mentally automatic, strategy test your exits repeatedly. Do it over and over again - every time you get the exit conditions hit exit. That way your mind will start doing this subconsciously. It is far more effective to get it into your subconscious than leave it your judgement on the moment. After you've perfected it on the strategy tester do it on demo in real time. Try and get 20 or more repetitions, ignore the consequences on the account balance (never look at it, even while you are trading live). If your problem is that you get panicked and see other signs of reversal (that are not in your exit criteria) replay those particular scary moments in the strategy tester over and over and get mentally automatic at ignoring them - allow and notice the panicked feelings while still not taking any action on the pretend exit. If you fail to notice things that would have kept you in, or if you give disproportionate weight to things that you should not, then list all the things you have to consider equally, and strategy test repeatedly going through that list at the time of exit. For that you may have to do more repetitions as it's a little more complicated.

This is what I found worked for me.

I don't agree with some of the other posters who tell you to take partial profit early, I know there are lots of people who advocate that, but I learnt that hard lesson. If you take profit early to avoid a loss you lose 2 units on losses, but get maximum profit with only 1 unit. The money management most often will not work out. You will have to increase your hit rate enormously to get it to give you a profit overall (read Van Tharp on that).

Hope it helps.
  • #10
  • Mar 29, 2011 2:37am Mar 29, 2011 2:37am
Quoting medici
Discipline, rules, techniques, mentoring, etc, may all have their value.....There's a professional concert pianist living downstairs in my house. She has "made it", but oh does she practice...all day long... Maybe that's the life of a trader too?
wow, u are pretty lucky, Sir.
she gives u 'free concert' hourly/daily
less need to turn on the radio/music player

passion aggrandizes & perpetuates talent & passion itself ('problem' arises when one has too many passions, hahah)
  • #11
  • Mar 29, 2011 2:53am Mar 29, 2011 2:53am
Quoting supremeChaos
wow, u are pretty lucky, Sir.
she gives u 'free concert' hourly/daily
less need to turn on the radio/music player

passion aggrandizes & perpetuates talent & passion itself ('problem' arises when one has too many passions, hahah)
Yes, it's nice with live music in the house Much better than the radio/music player which I find distracts me from trading. No concerts though...it's all practice, practice, practice...some very nice pieces but only the difficult parts.
  • #12
  • Mar 29, 2011 3:09am Mar 29, 2011 3:09am
I agree with some of the other posters about deemphasizing the high win rate. When you start out your win rate sucks to the high heavens. As time goes on, and you tough it out, you will find that your win rate goes up nicely. You will enjoy winning so much that in your mind losing is not an option. The best remedy for this is to have a strict risk:reward profile for each trade. When you combine a high win rate with a solid good risk:reward strategy.....your trading results will explode. You shouldn't feel bad for having a system with a high win rate.....you just need to keep it in check by managing your risk correctly. Basically what I'm saying is, risk management is more important than a high win rate.
  • #13
  • Mar 29, 2011 3:13am Mar 29, 2011 3:13am
Quoting Lovinit
You've clearly worked out your win:loss ratio on your entries, so now you have to work out the win:loss ratio on your planned targets (given those kind of entries).
That doesn't make any sense whatsoever. Win:loss can only be calculated when you close out a trade, therefore you need entry and exit. You can't just calculate a win/loss only on entry.
  • #14
  • Mar 29, 2011 3:17am Mar 29, 2011 3:17am
Quoting Lovinit
I agree with you on that, which is why I got myself a coach it made all the difference to me. It's great that you've got in touch with the market flow for your entries.

If your losers are 4x your average win then you have to investigate your system. You've identified it's your exits that matter. Ideally you should make your winners 3x (or more) than your losers. That means you should have a well researched profit target. If you don't have clear profit targets, and a known probability for these profit targets, then you will doubt your system....
Great post. But I dissagree with your last bit. Taking partial profits can be a great help with staying in the trade. I always gun for a minimum 2:1 Reward Risk with 3 lots. Once I reach 2:1 one lot is taken at profit and covers the other two lots if price reverses and stops me out.
  • #15
  • Mar 29, 2011 4:12am Mar 29, 2011 4:12am
Quoting Porkpie
Great post. But I dissagree with your last bit. Taking partial profits can be a great help with staying in the trade. I always gun for a minimum 2:1 Reward Risk with 3 lots. Once I reach 2:1 one lot is taken at profit and covers the other two lots if price reverses and stops me out.
Agreed Porkpie, partial exiting at 2:1 is fine...I don't consider that 'early'.
  • #16
  • Mar 29, 2011 9:07am Mar 29, 2011 9:07am
Quoting djarum11
i figure i would rather make shovelfuls than try and run a bulldozer, and i am willing to put in the work to do it. it is hard for me stay in a trade, perhaps because of prior losing experience i am not as willing to let it go against me,good hunting

hey djarum...... it might not be wise to take tradin advice from a hayseed...... but shovels, bulldozers and huntin are too hard for one to pass up.....

//----
//----

sounds like ya have a pretty good plan already......

what seems to help me is givin the trades a lot of rope...... then after all finally close, plotting my closed trades on a chart to see what went wrong, right and why.....

good luck with your huntin...... fling a lot of arrows.....h
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: bull pounder.jpg Size: 192 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: pink caddy.jpg Size: 186 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #17
  • Mar 29, 2011 10:56pm Mar 29, 2011 10:56pm
Quoting 6pack
You mention that journaling helps. How do you record your trades? Do you state your plan, or reason for entry? Do you have a plan?

If you think you're closing trades too soon, make a point of looking back at the charts two hours (or a day, whatever works for you) after you've closed the trade. Do this for every trade (I know, it can be a hassle), and summarize your stats at the end of the week/month. What do you see? Should you have stayed longer in your trades? Can you identify any patterns?

Another point worth examining is whether your...
thank you and yes i have a lot of experience with journaling on a personal/non-trading level and know how important it is to help u become aware of what is going on on the more subtle levels.

i am very discretionary, i feel that reading the markets is like speaking a foreign language- preparation & study followed by improvisation or field work. i am not one to look for a certain candle pattern and think it is the be-all-end-all ultimate signal... i read the constantly changing pressure of the market based on volume and VSA analysis.

in the past i have recorded tons of info about every trade i've made, but i find it is better if i just record what i did and what i learned from a trade, and not 12 different criteria about entry & exit.

with a discretionary/jazz-based system there is a lot of responsibility on the trader to pin down the definite reasons for the actions taken. sometimes it is a bit nebulous. i suppose that is the undisciplined part. but i refuse to turn myself into a monkey that hits a button when the screen turns green or red. i enjoy reading the music, the rise & fall of the markets' ups and downs.

problem is, still, my losses are too big/winners too small. i am thrilled at this point to be able to read the markets at all, to have the 'words' it is speaking make sense to me.

cheers
  • #18
  • Mar 29, 2011 11:05pm Mar 29, 2011 11:05pm
Quoting supremeChaos
First, congratulations to your ongoing success.
i know it's a feat in itself. although, as u know this is only the beginning of a much longer journey.

im not the best to give you advice.. but just wanna share some insights.
1. study/practice more to increase experience, consistency & confidence.
2....
thanks chaos, i've enjoyed how much you've shared on the VSA forum.

i wish i could practice more, but i depend very much on reading multiple timeframes so it must all be done in real time (simulator is ok to an extent). i do realize that practicing includes realtime demo trading as well, or real trading with small position sizes.

patience is one of the hardest parts. when i fail/lose a trade, the emotion to get back in is very strong. yet there is a growing part of me that is more patient, and sees it like a business, and is very detached. this sense seems to be improved the more i STOP myself from trading after a loss, and instead sit with what happened, really examine the crap out of what i just did. sometimes it's a benign issue, i was just too early in a trade or something, and sometimes i miss my own signals probably due to rushing. so thanks for the vote of patience.

scaling is something i avoid in an effort to keep trading simpler, as i like to complicate things so much already (another very difficult thing to 'undo' in yourself). but i do realize this is a business and we probably should have inventory acquired at many different price levels, and manage that inventory for profit.

cheers and thanks again
  • #19
  • Mar 29, 2011 11:16pm Mar 29, 2011 11:16pm
Quoting pippin4me
djarum11

You're getting a lot of great advice on the technical side and MM of trading, no problem with that ...

I look to trading success in a different light ...

IMHO, you'll need to first delve deeper inside yourself to find why you close too early or why you over-manage your trades.

Remember when you enter, you must let go and KNOW at that moment after entry, you have NO control on your specific trade, it will either win or lose.

The only thing you can control and have a decision over are four things (MM)

1. Do I want to exit for a win,...

yes, i realize that i must modify MYSELF around the market, around the continuing unfolding of what price is speaking in realtime. i dip into that pool of COOL and detach myself from the 'excitement'...anything can and will happen and i am merely an operator.

the more i humble myself into being an 'operator' and not some grand wizard who has some kind of control, the more i remain cool calm detached and can see market events for what they are, and continue to hear the message of the market. i think being an operator, like a call center phone operator, requires a plan/script, tho.

i know the trading signals i like but again, after learning everything from elliot wave to ichimoku to Fibs to jeez everything else, trading is not something whereby i see a signal and pull a trigger. it is much more complex than that... it is not black and white, it is full on grayscale... so i see small opportunities and take them, realistic that they will be short profits only.

perhaps i need to use longer timeframes more, and force myself to stick to their signals as they unfold, while exiting quickly if i do not get in at a good time. this sort of implies that one has to enter a trade at the 'right time' on small TFs and large ones. in other words time the mkt impeccably (or exit and take a small loss, and try again). this always seemed to idealistic. i take what i can get. i just keep getting small fish instead of big.

thanks to all, i love FF and how much i have been exposed to here, and hope something in this thread helps someone, and me
  • #20
  • Mar 29, 2011 11:26pm Mar 29, 2011 11:26pm
Quoting Troikaone1
I agree with some of the other posters about deemphasizing the high win rate....

i appreciate the risk/reward approach, but have had trouble getting my head (and actual trading) around it. i am more of a hustler, responding to the market, rather than ask or expect that it hit a specific TP. although usually my TP calls do get hit, whether i have exited early already or whether i am still in the trade. so i should trust my TPs more, thank you guys.

it's just hard to take 10pips out of so many trades, and then have one that goes against you 20, which is more like 3x (not 2x) in losses after spread etc....

i will work more on my exits.
big thanks.
0 traders viewing now