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vsa with Malcolm

  • #17,581
  • Mar 28, 2011 6:42pm Mar 28, 2011 6:42pm
Hi all. First time posting here, but have been into VSA for a while.
I'm looking to enter this long. So far I'm seeing stopping volume followed by NS. My entry might be just above the NS area. Around 1.4077.

http://i52.tinypic.com/iei3i0.gif
  • #17,582
  • Mar 28, 2011 6:50pm Mar 28, 2011 6:50pm
Here is my Wyckoff base analysis..up to 4180 then down to 4000

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  • #17,583
  • Mar 28, 2011 6:50pm Mar 28, 2011 6:50pm
Quoting Sonofsin5
SHAKEOUT
We're getting treated to some strange print patterns during Asia IMO. Looks like a 2 bar reversal pattern, and seems exactly the same on M5 and M15. Waiting for the H1 bar to close and see what we get next, but the 20 pips so far is below the average range Asia gives.

The upside seems difficult to break, and just based on a H1 and H4 view, I'm fairly confident we're testing 1.4 during Frankfurt or London. On the topside, I'm seeing a minor supply zone about 1.413 and hitting a trendline that was respected during NY at 1.4115, which is where I see the highest M15 volume, as sellers stopped the rise.

Admission: I'm almost finding USDJPY easier to read VSA-wise these days, LOL!
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  • #17,584
  • Mar 28, 2011 7:09pm Mar 28, 2011 7:09pm
Quoting pres78
Sorry for the later post but we just picked up a big project and I have been tied away in meetings.

Took this long off my phone. Yellow line 1 was started a key reversal for me as we approched the daily low we had a volume surge on a narrow spread bar closing off it's low... next bar up.

Yellow line 2 is a key bar as it takes price back above the daily open. We get a NS and then a NS/test of the daily open (red line). I wen't long off the break of it's high.

Also note that the bar right before yellow line 2 was a NS type bar.
Nice trade. I'm looking at your volume and comparing it to mine and obviously they are different due to I look at the volume for the euro futures. But lately I've noticed that i'm missing a lot of trigger bars due to my volume being so different at points than the spot volume. As an example I didn't have that trigger volume that you took that trade off of. I had no difference in the previous and next bars volume as you can see in the attachment.

Do you recommend people looking at spot over futures? Anyone else have thoughts opinions on this?
Attached Image
  • #17,585
  • Mar 28, 2011 7:22pm Mar 28, 2011 7:22pm
Quoting Clifton
Hi all. First time posting here, but have been into VSA for a while.
I'm looking to enter this long. So far I'm seeing stopping volume followed by NS. My entry might be just above the NS area. Around 1.4077.

http://i52.tinypic.com/iei3i0.gif
take a look at the larger timeframes. do the same observations you have but walk it along with the larger timeframes. i think you got the idea. i observed the 15m while being led/confirmed by the 5m. then i look back at the hourly-4hr-daily-weekly. it takes time, and I am still trying to grasp a FULL understanding.

for me, i am not going to take a trade yet. why? there seems to be too much fuss back at asia open. volume and pa usually do not do much after asia, until hours before LO. Though it might be a good entry, I'd wait hours before LO to see where your position is compared to now.
  • #17,586
  • Mar 28, 2011 7:34pm Mar 28, 2011 7:34pm
Quoting PipPipPip
take a look at the larger timeframes. do the same observations you have but walk it along with the larger timeframes. i think you got the idea. i observed the 15m while being led/confirmed by the 5m. then i look back at the hourly-4hr-daily-weekly. it takes time, and I am still trying to grasp a FULL understanding.

for me, i am not going to take a trade yet. why? there seems to be too much fuss back at asia open. volume and pa usually do not do much after asia, until hours before LO. Though it might be a good entry, I'd wait hours before LO...
Yes always keeping an eye on the different TF and background. The background now on e/u looks pretty mixed so I thought I might catch a scalp here. I didn't get my entry price anyway. Aisa is not the best time as you pointed out. Waiting untill London.
  • #17,587
  • Mar 28, 2011 8:03pm Mar 28, 2011 8:03pm
Quoting Steve Gill
Interesting day. I am always keen to watch Monday's for indication of direction for the rest of the week. Today was interesting because it appears the SM effectively withdrew interest for most of the US session.

I suspect accumulation during asia and the morning european session, and then the price was marked up in early afternoon GMT. There was volume in this move - did the SM withdraw as soon as supply was seen - realising this supply needs shaken out before this up move can continue? Or is this a genuine no demand for the day and we're...
Steve,

If you ignore sunday's bar - or better put, combine it with Monday's - you have the making of a no supply/test day - a down bar, closing on the highs, and making a lower low which stopped right near the close of the breakout day (03/17) at 4030. A ND day would be more suitable if EU first broke through this level and came back to test it with a ND, no?
Change is the only constant
  • #17,588
  • Mar 28, 2011 8:08pm Mar 28, 2011 8:08pm
Quoting Sonofsin5
I'm posting what I think is a great opportunity for up-side potential on the GJ.

I'm posting 2 charts, the first is a 30 min followed by a 15 min. Since the large widespread up bar we have consolidated into a range and have not broke out. An examination of price and volume in multiple time frames brings me to the conclusion that dips are being bought. A break of 131.10 with volume on the break followed by testing on low volume will be my long entry.

Thoughts welcome.
More strength in the last hour.
  • #17,589
  • Mar 28, 2011 8:57pm Mar 28, 2011 8:57pm
Quoting Clifton
Hi all. First time posting here, but have been into VSA for a while.
I'm looking to enter this long. So far I'm seeing stopping volume followed by NS. My entry might be just above the NS area. Around 1.4077.

http://i52.tinypic.com/iei3i0.gif
Not sure how it played out on your charts but the NS's I had didn't have their tops take out within 2 bars. A safer entry is to wait and see if the trigger level of the SO bar gets tested closer to LO or to have another NS print after more confirmed strength... possibly during a uptrend retrace.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #17,590
  • Edited 9:17pm Mar 28, 2011 9:07pm | Edited 9:17pm
Quoting inks2002
Nice trade. I'm looking at your volume and comparing it to mine and obviously they are different due to I look at the volume for the euro futures. But lately I've noticed that i'm missing a lot of trigger bars due to my volume being so different at points than the spot volume. As an example I didn't have that trigger volume that you took that trade off of. I had no difference in the previous and next bars volume as you can see in the attachment.

Do you recommend people looking at spot over futures? Anyone else have thoughts opinions on this?
I have never looked at EU futures so I can't comment.

Edit... you had a nice 2 bar reversal (with the close of bar 1 right on a trigger lelvel on not NS volume but reduced in compairison to the trigger bar) and a NS a few bars after both giving good long entries. Also my trade was not off a trigger bar level it was a test of the daily open level after SOS.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #17,591
  • Mar 28, 2011 9:08pm Mar 28, 2011 9:08pm
Quoting pres78
Not sure how it played out on your charts but the NS's I had didn't have their tops take out within 2 bars. A safer entry is to wait and see if the trigger level of the SO bar gets tested closer to LO or to have another NS print after more confirmed strength... possibly during a uptrend retrace.

On my chart the high of the No Supply was breached on the next bar.

While I would agree about the trigger level being tested, you can't ignore the bar after. On my charts it fails to make a lower low or even an equal low and closes above the MP of the herd (trigger)bar. That's shows strength.
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #17,592
  • Mar 28, 2011 9:17pm Mar 28, 2011 9:17pm
Quoting HiddenGap
On my chart the high of the No Supply was breached on the next bar.

While I would agree about the trigger level being tested, you can't ignore the bar after. On my charts it fails to make a lower low or even an equal low and closes above the MP of the herd (trigger)bar. That's shows strength.
Fully agree on the strength... definate early session SO with strong second bar. It's just hard to trust that we will see any real follow through this time of the day.

One could have gotten 1:1 already though so not bad...

Edit... also just had 2 more NS's print on 5 min (last 2 bars)
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #17,593
  • Mar 28, 2011 10:38pm Mar 28, 2011 10:38pm
Hi all,

First time posting, thank you malcolmb14 for this wonderful thread. Your charts and explanations have certainly helped me with understanding VSA better.

I've a question when using HMA, do we simply use its colour to confirm what VSA is telling us? Does the position of the candle/close/open matter with regards to the HMA? Eg. If candle closes above when long, trade, or vice versa?

Also, I found AllAverages2.5 at codebase.mql4.com/ru/7055 (it's a russian page but the indicator itself is English), hopefully it's helpful to those of you looking for a HMA indicator. I set MA_Method to 8 for HMA, and Period to 21 (as per malcolmb14's suggestion).

Thanks!
  • #17,594
  • Edited 11:12pm Mar 28, 2011 10:45pm | Edited 11:12pm
5m, 15m just confirmed closed above on yests high volume close. Hourly is looking to be strong and supportive as well. Background strength has been bulled through consistently.

Edit: hourly confirmed by 15m background strength
  • #17,595
  • Mar 28, 2011 11:28pm Mar 28, 2011 11:28pm
Even before LO, daily range has been almost filled.
Maybe we should wait for some SO or strength in down bar before going long?
  • #17,596
  • Edited 11:52pm Mar 28, 2011 11:40pm | Edited 11:52pm
Quoting ivonivon
Even before LO, daily range has been almost filled.
Maybe we should wait for some SO or strength in down bar before going long?
Correct me if I am wrong, but the day has just started? I think you mightve been confused about yesterdays open and the uptrednd start of today?
LO is the start of the rally usually...
Nevertheless, if background is buff, we could see a daily range average upwards from where we are.
  • #17,597
  • Mar 29, 2011 12:02am Mar 29, 2011 12:02am
Quoting Clifton
I'm looking to enter this long. So far I'm seeing stopping volume followed by NS. My entry might be just above the NS area. Around 1.4077.

http://i52.tinypic.com/iei3i0.gif
After another NS showed up, I took the long with a small position at the grey box. I just closed as we are now seeing some weakness.

http://i53.tinypic.com/20q0rxd.gif
  • #17,598
  • Edited 1:39am Mar 29, 2011 12:03am | Edited 1:39am
I'll be waiting for all those news on GU today... That should give us a good trigger and directioin of London today.... Just my 2p.

Oz

We now have a new trigger bar, waiting for reaction at low, close or high, Close I think works best.
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  • #17,599
  • Mar 29, 2011 1:41am Mar 29, 2011 1:41am
Quoting HiddenGap
Kinsaleforex,

I totally would have taken that same trade. Where did we go wrong? We do want to be careful here and not equate result with the correctness of the set-up.
Hi HG, are you talking about the losing trade I posted yesterday morning? I thought my entry was sound, the point where I should have got out was when it drifted back up to the trigger on No Demand.
  • #17,600
  • Mar 29, 2011 1:42am Mar 29, 2011 1:42am
EU looks interesting, we have a UT on the trigger but a VPOC just above that...

I think it will take that VPOC out even if on low volume and then I will be looking for shorts.

up until then who knows will see what happens.
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