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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #23,821
  • Edited 12:44pm Mar 28, 2011 12:34pm | Edited 12:44pm
Quoting fullperson
well, manipulator has died I guess?

I can't help wondering, is the manipulator using their account size to push rates up to benefit their position? Are they pushing it around to test levels (sweeps)?

How do we know if the manipulator isn't one of the big ships (in which case we shouldn't try to fight at all).
Hey guys can you please show where this manipulation is taking place? I'm not seeing it What I see is gap closing type trade because the news was hardly a new input and the current sentiment is bullish therefore bearish news may be dismissed . Its clear Eurusd wasn't in the driver seat but to me the patterns of trade seem normal just rotations and backfills. Especially in the dollar as a whole.

Why try to fight manipulation? Doesn't that go against the rule of not fighting the tape and not to concern yourself with the why. All you have to do is go along for the ride. Thanks guys.

Fana: Did you sell anything around the 1.41 figure? 1.4060 is game although may require Asia to push it there. But its coming along as the patterns typically playout.
  • #23,822
  • Mar 28, 2011 1:08pm Mar 28, 2011 1:08pm
Quoting Guerrillawar
Hey guys can you please show where this manipulation is taking place? I'm not seeing it What I see is gap closing type trade because the news was hardly a new input and the current sentiment is bullish therefore bearish news may be dismissed . Its clear Eurusd wasn't in the driver seat but to me the patterns of trade seem normal just rotations and backfills. Especially in the dollar as a whole.

Why try to fight manipulation? Doesn't that go against the rule of not fighting the tape and not to concern yourself with the why. All you have to...
Today i reached my target with not many trades...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sell...jpg Size: 309 KB
  • #23,823
  • Mar 28, 2011 1:12pm Mar 28, 2011 1:12pm
Quoting Fana
Today i reached my target with not many trades...
Good trading to you!!! Nice trade at 1.4110 or so I'm in it as well. Thats where my 2nd scout (1.4108) was initiated.

Take a look at CZK sometimes she helps clarify e/u trades. Today was a day like that. CZK and PLN both helped a bit. HUF not so much.
  • #23,824
  • Edited 1:48pm Mar 28, 2011 1:30pm | Edited 1:48pm
Quoting Fana
Today i reached my target with not many trades...
what is ur daily target in % and what is ur scout size and how many rescues u have??

Never mind didnt saw entire chat clearly...thought u "ARE TOO CLOSE"...seems you are fine.. my bad


V
  • #23,825
  • Mar 28, 2011 1:57pm Mar 28, 2011 1:57pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
what is ur daily target in % and what is ur scout size and how many rescues u have??

Never mind didnt saw entire chat clearly...thought u "ARE TOO CLOSE"...seems you are fine.. my bad


V
Hi Vick
My daily target is 50pips. My scout size is 100unit. Today were no rescues, only attacks. And they were 6X scout.
-despite such small size, this is very serious way to the success-
Sometimes it is not easy not to trade what you want(size,skew), but what you have planed... But thus it is serious.
  • #23,826
  • Mar 28, 2011 2:06pm Mar 28, 2011 2:06pm
Quoting Fana
Hi Vick
My daily target is 50pips. My scout size is 100unit. Today were no rescues, only attacks. And they were 6X scout.
-despite such small size, this is very serious way to the success-
Sometimes it is not easy not to trade what you want(size,skew), but what you have planed... But thus it is serious.

how many troops u have if you have to rescue the scout....


V
  • #23,827
  • Mar 28, 2011 2:55pm Mar 28, 2011 2:55pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
how many troops u have if you have to rescue the scout....


V
113 basic atack
114, 13 variants..... due to conditions... 11369 ......
+flips if... strong...

rescues 139 for example

and also this : (113failed) ..................................................... 1[/size] [size="5"]
1 1 3
generally due to the conditions
  • #23,828
  • Mar 28, 2011 3:11pm Mar 28, 2011 3:11pm
Quoting Fana
113 basic atack
114, 13 variants..... due to conditions... 11369 ......
+flips if... strong...

rescues 139 for example

and also this : (113failed) ..................................................... 1[/size] [size="5"]
1 1 3
generally due to the conditions


Just wanted to be sure u have an army....

V
  • #23,829
  • Mar 28, 2011 3:13pm Mar 28, 2011 3:13pm
Quoting ukmanthailan
fullperson, you should never try to fight the market. Whether it is a big ship or little boat behind the price action, have you personally got the resources to move the market?
Sorry, I think I am not making myself clear. I have no intentions of fighting the market with my capital. Instead, I would like to know the MO of these manipulators and when they are going to belly up. If I know this, I can take advantage of them when the market returns to regular trading.

New strategies
  • #23,830
  • Mar 28, 2011 6:59pm Mar 28, 2011 6:59pm
Quoting Guerrillawar
Hey guys can you please show where this manipulation is taking place? I'm not seeing it What I see is gap closing type trade because the news was hardly a new input and the current sentiment is bullish therefore bearish news may be dismissed . Its clear Eurusd wasn't in the driver seat but to me the patterns of trade seem normal just rotations and backfills. Especially in the dollar as a whole.

Why try to fight manipulation? Doesn't that go against the rule of not fighting the tape and not to concern yourself with the why. All you have to do...
Someone stepped in early to control the descent, watch for control and/or what seem to be measured price moves.
fwiw,
  • #23,831
  • Mar 28, 2011 7:18pm Mar 28, 2011 7:18pm
Quoting jacson101
Someone stepped in early to control the descent, watch for control and/or what seem to be measured price moves.
fwiw,
Thank you for helping out. I just have one question how are you confident in saying its manipulation rather than a market that was positioning to close the gap. I know FTI mentioned it and we all respect his thoughts very much thats why were all here

We are here to learn how to fish not be fed we must be able to size up the market on our own. He may have the insider info about it so that may be enough. I called some of my contacts no real big shots just some friends on the merc and they hadn't heard anything about any manipulation. The dollar had a bearish bias pretty much all three sessions if you look at it across the board. Some one mentioned something about it resembling crude oil a few weeks back when it had that persistent rise. I don't see any similarity at all to that rise. On the contrary there were several large reactions. Anyhow thanks again.
  • #23,832
  • Edited 8:07pm Mar 28, 2011 7:28pm | Edited 8:07pm
Quoting Guerrillawar
Thank you for helping out. I just have one question how are you confident in saying its manipulation rather than a market that was positioning to close the gap. I know FTI mentioned it and we all respect his thoughts very much thats why were all here

We are here to learn how to fish not be fed...
3 kingdoms.
Crosses reversal, that's how strong the control was( have a look at your crosses).
The impulse was correct, it was there, no need for inside info.
The open must have surprised quite a few.
  • #23,833
  • Mar 28, 2011 7:37pm Mar 28, 2011 7:37pm
Quoting Guerrillawar
Hey guys can you please show where this manipulation is taking place? I'm not seeing it What I see is gap closing type trade because the news was hardly a new input and the current sentiment is bullish therefore bearish news may be dismissed . Its clear Eurusd wasn't in the driver seat but to me the patterns of trade seem normal just rotations and backfills. Especially in the dollar as a whole.

Why try to fight manipulation? Doesn't that go against the rule of not fighting the tape and not to concern yourself with the why. All you have to do...
Hi Sir,
Fullperson said about manipulation b/c when MaMood another day post chart from oil was look very similar to E/U chart closing that gap today and FTI comment MaMood's chart like there is some manipulation.
Anyway just look at part of that chart u can see diference.

that's my view and understanding.

KM
  • #23,834
  • Mar 28, 2011 7:58pm Mar 28, 2011 7:58pm
Quoting kravmaga39
Hi Sir,
Fullperson said about manipulation b/c when MaMood another day post chart from oil was look very similar to E/U chart closing that gap today and FTI comment MaMood's chart like there is some manipulation.
Anyway just look at part of that chart u can see diference.

that's my view and understanding.

KM
Thank you for adding your wisdom. Here are the two markets in question. They have little in common in my opinion. If you look more carefully in the eurusd every bar had a lower shadow where that was clearly not the case with crude oil. That means that there was some selling taking place in the eurusd whereas for the most part there was no lower shadows is crude. Thanks again for your thoughts it all helps us grow.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: oil.gif Size: 16 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #23,835
  • Mar 28, 2011 8:13pm Mar 28, 2011 8:13pm
need read up on my crosses, at this point have been neglecting 3k. What is the AUD used for? How exactly does crosses affect rates..will have to check
  • #23,836
  • Mar 28, 2011 8:26pm Mar 28, 2011 8:26pm
Here is the back fill trade Fana and I were discussing. Always nice when it works.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #23,837
  • Mar 28, 2011 9:00pm Mar 28, 2011 9:00pm
Quoting Guerrillawar
Thank you for adding your wisdom. Here are the two markets in question. They have little in common in my opinion. If you look more carefully in the eurusd every bar had a lower shadow where that was clearly not the case with crude oil. That means that there was some selling taking place in the eurusd whereas for the most part there was no lower shadows is crude. Thanks again for your thoughts it all helps us grow.
Well In my eyes that move is similar,but I don't have much experience said,right there was any manipulation.Only refering what guys said,so maybe I am wrong.
For me she was making with that down spikes making her way for drop,that's how I saw it,so I was ready dance down the road with her.

KM
  • #23,838
  • Mar 29, 2011 1:59am Mar 29, 2011 1:59am
Guys, dont underestimate the "sticking to the price", Sometimes it is important how focused to be, how quick are the reflexes triggering orders. Thats the price, what is the very indicator...
...twoo sides... Brain at one side... axis, hand, mouse... cable... and money is the second end:-)
Happy trading:-)
  • #23,839
  • Mar 29, 2011 2:05am Mar 29, 2011 2:05am
Quoting Ngc773
Warren Buffett has said, "I realized technical analysis didn't work when I turned the charts upside down and didn't get a different answer" and "If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians."
oh , it works like a charm.
If you know how to use it correctly.
Stay on basics.

regards
  • #23,840
  • Mar 29, 2011 2:09am Mar 29, 2011 2:09am
Quoting fullperson
well, manipulator has died I guess?

I can't help wondering, is the manipulator using their account size to push rates up to benefit their position? Are they pushing it around to test levels (sweeps)?

How do we know if the manipulator isn't one of the big ships (in which case we shouldn't try to fight at all).
it is.
same MO
same manipulation style and volitility.
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