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  • #241
  • Mar 26, 2011 9:00pm Mar 26, 2011 9:00pm
Jade,

I am an educator by profession. I will help anyone at any level and bend over backwards to do so. I enjoy helping... others helped me a lot when I started out. I just cannot abide the uncivil nature that some posters seem to inevitably sink to. Reckless, rude, thoughtless postings do nothing to advance the discussion or further any serious traders towards their goals. I know such a downward spiral seems to be the way of the web. Any watchtower or defense you can provide inside this new thread will be welcome and appreciated. Thanks for your efforts...

Regards,
  • #242
  • Mar 26, 2011 9:17pm Mar 26, 2011 9:17pm
Meanwhile, back at the ranch... EUR/AUD has retraced as expected to close the gap from open last week. Typically, a gap will not just close with a touch (as the 4H chart presently shows), but close with a convincing plug further south. This has been a nearly 600 pip move, very lucrative trading.

Looking at the weekly however, we can see that price is presently sitting on ema support and we have what appears to be a possible inverted head and shoulders pattern forming. Side by side candles like the weekly shows, i.e. one bull + one bear each of approx. equivalent size, often mean a continuation of the last candle in the pair. Yet in these circumstances, with ema support and the inverted HnS pattern, it now becomes a more complicated call (reason enough to stand aside on this pair for now until the picture clears).

AU's performance this coming week will be somewhat contingent upon the PA on the cross, and the Euro's fortunes (given that everything is relative to everything else in the currency market, and that (imo) most of the majors trade predominantly against the Euro rather than the USD even though they are paired USD.)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraudweekly.gif Size: 15 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud4H.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #243
  • Mar 26, 2011 9:31pm Mar 26, 2011 9:31pm
Quoting FX-Petra
Jade,

I am an educator by profession. I will help anyone at any level and bend over backwards to do so. I enjoy helping... others helped me a lot when I started out. I just cannot abide the uncivil nature that some posters seem to inevitably sink to. Reckless, rude, thoughtless postings do nothing to advance the discussion or further any serious traders towards their goals. I know such a downward spiral seems to be the way of the web. Any watchtower or defense you can provide inside this new thread will be welcome and appreciated. Thanks for your...
Thanks Petra It was rather unpalatable in that other place, wasn't it?

Consider yourself deputised to the task of helping to keep our new home in good order.

I'm an educator/manager of education colleges by (former) profession too (does it show? LOL) High five buddy.
  • #244
  • Mar 26, 2011 11:20pm Mar 26, 2011 11:20pm
Considering the Aussie tracks gold very well. It is worth to compare the currency to gold. At 87% correlation it is interesting to see gold and AUD struggling around these levels.

Inflation scare has driven the demand for Gold quite high but lately we've been hearing talks of rate hike which seems likely to be done by Mortgage Back Security. As these talks have continued, we've seen the dollar catch bid and as usual, whenever this happens , market immediately blames it on Europe's Financial mess.

That said, here are a few charts:

Dollar:
http://i55.tinypic.com/3127ipv.png

Aussie:
http://i51.tinypic.com/30xan4i.png

Gold:
http://i52.tinypic.com/wgq43n.png

Let's compare gold and Aussie. We can see that both are at resistance points.
http://i54.tinypic.com/2chqss0.png

So two ways can be played, if Aussie breaks out, then EURAUD is most likely to continue to move down (considering the Portugal mess is still just getting started). Looking for a break below 50MA if that's the case.
http://i52.tinypic.com/2nkq69t.png

There's also AUDCHF. Since CHF has been very weak lately, the strength of Aussie has sent this cross flying up. Lastly there's the AUDUSD which could potentially pull back if the rate hike talks pick up and dollar makes a come back. Keep in mind AUD does not make up the dollar basket so if the dollar pops, AUDSD might not be a bad short but remember that the yield favors AUD with 4.75% and also the Feds still have POMO dragging down the dollar.


Thanks,

Patrick

http://www.thinkfirstblinksecond.com
  • #245
  • Mar 27, 2011 2:13am Mar 27, 2011 2:13am
l've closed my long at 0290 (opened at 0125) simply because of the imminent rate cut (i think a cut is very likely). my question is : let's say this pair reaches 037x by next week, would it be possible to retrace to 097x? i'm waiting for a short!
  • #246
  • Edited 3:38am Mar 27, 2011 3:28am | Edited 3:38am
Quoting ayra_j
l've closed my long at 0290 (opened at 0125) simply because of the imminent rate cut (i think a cut is very likely). my question is : let's say this pair reaches 037x by next week, would it be possible to retrace to 097x? i'm waiting for a short!
Malcolm Edey, Assistant Gov of the RBA last week at the Basel III Conference ...

"It's well understood now that the liquidity coverage ratio, in the form originally proposed in the Basel process, couldn't have been applied in Australia. Australian governments simply don't have enough debt outstanding for banks to hold to meet the standard in that form. Incidentally, this is a problem that other countries would love to have. The Australian government's gross debt to GDP ratio is not much more than 10 per cent, compared with numbers of the order of 80 to 100 per cent projected in the next few years in the United States and the major European economies."

and .....

"But, acknowledging the uncertainties, the world financial system over the past half year has generally been improving. Australian banks are in good shape, and they came through the crisis profitable and well capitalised. They have strengthened their liquidity positions and their use of deposit funding. Australian businesses have reduced their gearing. Households have raised their saving rates."

http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2011/sp-ag-240311.html

This isn't quite the dovish sentiment of a central bank about to cut rates. I'm inclined to think it isn't going to happen, rates will either stay on hold or take a .25 bp hike up. I think the RBA would have liked to hike rates earlier, except the floods kept a ceiling on it.

Others may have differing views of course, I think every trader around wants to be on the express elevator south when AU does eventually choke, just not convinced it will be any time soon. My 2c.
  • #247
  • Mar 27, 2011 10:09am Mar 27, 2011 10:09am
Hi Jade,
Thanks for the explainations.
I don't know about Jade's picture; but yes this is a real picture of me! http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
  • #248
  • Mar 27, 2011 5:04pm Mar 27, 2011 5:04pm
Quoting Jade Gate
Yup, that's me. Pic is up on a trial basis. It does help sometimes to see the actual person making commentary.

There are many other female traders, though they sometimes prefer to stay hidden or not disclose gender because of the unwanted/unprofessional attention they receive.

I hope that other quality traders will continue to post to this thread. For some reason, just can't bring myself to post in the other one. Maybe it is the lunatic lurkers who cannot control the abuse impulse. At least here, I can keep the rabble element out and ensure...


Good morning Jade, good to see you. However, I would be cautious about putting your photo on FF. You have met some of the people who frequent FF and their posts. And they are the ones who speak, there are others who just lie in wait for info they can use.
Also you may have noticed that Ely is no longer on the other thread, so there is another option if you want it and that is to merge the threads and help the young traders that would benefit from your knowledge.
However, the final decision is yours.
Good trading
Peter
  • #249
  • Mar 27, 2011 5:36pm Mar 27, 2011 5:36pm
hi all, i have followed aus/usd for over a year now and i think we should keep this one going. the hard workers and learners will join over time and lets hope the loud mouths dont..

keep it up guys and girls
  • #250
  • Mar 27, 2011 6:03pm Mar 27, 2011 6:03pm
Hi Jade, I'm fully supportive of this new thread and position trade AUD longer-term (3-9 months). I also take some directional bias from the EUR/AUD. At the moment I am on the sidelines for both pairs until the end of the month with an over bearish bias on EUR/AUD. We are too close to monthly and quarterly end for me to consider a position, especially given the likely demeanour of the EUR/AUD. Monthly is likely to be decidedly bearish and as you mentioned, bearish continuation is on the cards for the weekly. This leads me to suspect there is more topside to the AUD/USD, however I'm happy to watch from the sidelines at present.
Attached Images
If there is ever any doubt then there is no doubt.
  • #251
  • Mar 27, 2011 10:35pm Mar 27, 2011 10:35pm
Quoting Kristo
Hi Jade, I'm fully supportive of this new thread and position trade AUD longer-term (3-9 months). I also take some directional bias from the EUR/AUD. At the moment I am on the sidelines for both pairs until the end of the month with an over bearish bias on EUR/AUD. We are too close to monthly and quarterly end for me to consider a position, especially given the likely demeanour of the EUR/AUD. Monthly is likely to be decidedly bearish and as you mentioned, bearish continuation is on the cards for the weekly. This leads me to suspect there is more...
thanks kristo for sharing your chart, great view on the aud
  • #252
  • Edited 11:32pm Mar 27, 2011 11:21pm | Edited 11:32pm
Quoting jerrycollie
Hi Jade,
Thanks for the explainations.
I don't know about Jade's picture; but yes this is a real picture of me! http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
Hi jerrycollie, this is skip, the-ever-hyper-jack-russel-terrier (hence the nick skip-is-mad). Nice to meet you here...

OK end of OT and back to trading before Jade-the-Educator lashes out disciplinary action...

AUDUSD seems to be consolidating around the 1.026 region. The past 2 bullish M15 candles may signal a push beyond 1.03 to find new high. Am looking for a good level to go long on this pair.

H4 PA also showing signs of continuation of the bull.
  • #253
  • Mar 27, 2011 11:54pm Mar 27, 2011 11:54pm
some local new paper even jokes the aud will touch 11000 by the end of this year, which feels me australian's economy will be squashed by then.
  • #254
  • Mar 28, 2011 12:55am Mar 28, 2011 12:55am
Perhaps the title of the thread should simply be: AUD trading
It covers all pairs then, not just AUD/USD.
Biggest joker
  • #255
  • Mar 28, 2011 1:38am Mar 28, 2011 1:38am
Quoting skipismad
Hi jerrycollie, this is skip, the-ever-hyper-jack-russel-terrier (hence the nick skip-is-mad). Nice to meet you here...

OK end of OT and back to trading before Jade-the-Educator lashes out disciplinary action...

AUDUSD seems to be consolidating around the 1.026 region. The past 2 bullish M15 candles may signal a push beyond 1.03 to find new high. Am looking for a good level to go long on this pair.

H4 PA also showing signs of continuation of the bull.
Is it the sign of start of south?
  • #256
  • Mar 28, 2011 1:45am Mar 28, 2011 1:45am
I dont usually take entry triggers from divergence, however I also dont ignore it completely. Its everywhere on the long term charts at the moment which is one of the reasons why I am on the sidelines until we get a week or two into April. The Monthly is setting up for a strong bullish close but not a particularly bullish Quarterly close (opened @ 1.0221 on Jan 1st), the new all-time high printed last week is a positive sign. There's definitely some strength holding AUD up there, but overall it has not really gone anywhere since Jan the 1st. Perhaps we will see some continuation of the longer trend next month.
Attached Images
If there is ever any doubt then there is no doubt.
  • #257
  • Mar 28, 2011 2:49am Mar 28, 2011 2:49am
Hahaha.
The highest record in the history.
Really impressive!

Part of my short hit SL. =="
Balance it back with the last Friday Shorting's quick earn.

Aussie now trading at 1.0303

I doubt the other forum "Ely" can survive ?

Are we seeing a down turn soon?
I do not dare to go for Long as the technical indicator still showing "Sell" trend.
  • #258
  • Mar 28, 2011 2:51am Mar 28, 2011 2:51am
Quoting baron193
Perhaps the title of the thread should simply be: AUD trading
It covers all pairs then, not just AUD/USD.
Nice suggestion.. =P
  • #259
  • Mar 28, 2011 2:55am Mar 28, 2011 2:55am
This is extreme. Every chart I can see, from M1 all the way to Monthly, screams overbought.
  • #260
  • Mar 28, 2011 3:05am Mar 28, 2011 3:05am
Who is short?, I can see 1.0090 coming this week
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