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  • #12,121
  • Mar 26, 2011 7:47am Mar 26, 2011 7:47am
Quoting stewrigh
Chris,
Just noticed you are bearish Nikkei.

I would be interested to know your thoughts because everything I've read seams to imply that it will fly when Japan starts printing money in earnest and the Yen starts to fall.
Just based that upon the charts. Of course, being short the Nikkei is a lot like being short the dollar - it's just the direction it wants to go.....almost like it is made to do so.
  • #12,122
  • Mar 26, 2011 7:52am Mar 26, 2011 7:52am
Quoting stewrigh
From Forexlive

Gold poops the bed on mere mention of US rate hike...
Of course, this guy forgets to mention that a $12 drop in gold is common these days, and on other days it has been close to $30 drops when other things happen. A $12 move in gold to the downside is absolutely nothing.
  • #12,123
  • Mar 26, 2011 12:02pm Mar 26, 2011 12:02pm
Interesting article on gold and oil

http://www.rickackerman.com/2011/03/...ds/#more-32943
  • #12,124
  • Mar 26, 2011 12:06pm Mar 26, 2011 12:06pm
I agree with Chris that a $12 drop is almost meaningless.

But US rate raises on the other hand....That's my first cue to start considering long term gold shorts. Mind you, not the rumor of rate raises, but the real deal.
  • #12,125
  • Mar 26, 2011 12:30pm Mar 26, 2011 12:30pm
Watching the greatest trading instructional video of all time: Trading Places.
  • #12,126
  • Mar 26, 2011 12:31pm Mar 26, 2011 12:31pm
Quoting Low
I agree with Chris that a $12 drop is almost meaningless.

But US rate raises on the other hand....That's my first cue to start considering long term gold shorts. Mind you, not the rumor of rate raises, but the real deal.
Exactly. Of course there is going to be an initial drop based upon the rumor of a rate hike, but let's be honest: If we get a hike - there will be a lot of unwinding to be done......$1000 an ounce would be my first target.
  • #12,127
  • Mar 26, 2011 5:30pm Mar 26, 2011 5:30pm
I'm waiting for a longer term short Gold trade as well. I know Silver is different as it actually is good for industrial uses unlike Gold.

But still, is this parabolic or what?

http://i923.photobucket.com/albums/a...h/7417de67.gif
  • #12,128
  • Mar 26, 2011 6:25pm Mar 26, 2011 6:25pm
I got in this trade off the 4H chart. But I'm looking at the end of the week chart thinking this is a nice 2 Week pin bar. It makes me think of adding on.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud w 2wk pin bar.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #12,129
  • Mar 26, 2011 9:50pm Mar 26, 2011 9:50pm
Quoting o990l6mh
I'm waiting for a longer term short Gold trade as well. I know Silver is different as it actually is good for industrial uses unlike Gold.

But still, is this parabolic or what?

http://i923.photobucket.com/albums/a...h/7417de67.gif
Funny thing about life. I haven't told too many people this on the forums, but I actually knew (albeit only a bit) Lamar Hunt. For those of you that don't know the name, he and his brother tried to corner the silver market in the 70s. Of course, when I met him, it was because he owned the Columbus Crew. It's a team. It's what passes as soccer/futbol/football/voetbal/calcio in this country. Anyway, the charts looked a lot like this when Lamar got burnt. I imagine someone somewhere is going to be left holding the bag someday. I don't know if it's soon - but it is certainly coming.

Think of it this way: So many contrarians on Wall Street with almost every market, except the USD. Everyone loves commodities. I am starting to wonder about them myself. Because most of this is an anti-currency play these days - and has absolutely nothing to do with supply and demand.

It is becoming apparent to me that finance is simply a game where we are inflating bubbles, and then popping them. We certainly seem to be doing that right now. I don't think we will see the fall of gold soon, as this feels a lot like 2005, not 2007. I think we have a way to go....but I am not in a rush to buy metals for anything more than a quick trade.
  • #12,130
  • Mar 26, 2011 10:09pm Mar 26, 2011 10:09pm
Quoting 4xWheels
I got in this trade off the 4H chart. But I'm looking at the end of the week chart thinking this is a nice 2 Week pin bar. It makes me think of adding on.
It looks like the 1.37 level might be minor support.....I would let it fall a bit before adding myself. (for what that's worth)
  • #12,131
  • Mar 27, 2011 3:39am Mar 27, 2011 3:39am
Being I am from Kansas City, I definetly know who Lamar Hunt is. Owner and creator of the Kansas City Chiefs and Wizards.

I did not know that he tried to corner the market on silver. Interesting.

These bubbles in Silver and Gold look just stupid in size. How can anyone want to buy these things right now?
  • #12,132
  • Mar 27, 2011 8:57am Mar 27, 2011 8:57am
Quoting unlv_tj
Being I am from Kansas City, I definetly know who Lamar Hunt is. Owner and creator of the Kansas City Chiefs and Wizards.

I did not know that he tried to corner the market on silver. Interesting.

These bubbles in Silver and Gold look just stupid in size. How can anyone want to buy these things right now?
KC? Then why the UNLV in the name? Always assumed you were in Vegas. Actually, Lamar was either full owner, or partial owner of the Chicago Bulls, KC Wizards, (Even if your original name was "Wiz" lol) Columbus Crew, Chiefs, Dallas Mavericks? and another baseball team somewhere. I think he had a small addiction. :-)

Anyways, yes - he and his brother just about cornered the silver market in the 70s. It's a really interesting story. It is amazing what being involved with oil allows you to do. I missed my calling.
  • #12,133
  • Mar 27, 2011 9:02am Mar 27, 2011 9:02am
Aussie looks like it is trying to wind up and take off. Based upon the rectangle-ish area we had been stuck in, it appears that 500 pips could be in the cards. (You get this from measuring the height of the rectangle, in this case from 0.97 to 1.02) So.....add 500 to 1.02 (the basic area of the break out) and you get 1.07 as a target.

The second chart shows where I want to get a signal to go long on the 4 hour chart. (this signal is so interesting, I might even use the 1 hour chart.) I would say that if I use the 1 hour, I would still base may stops off of the larger time frames, thus using a bigger approach to stops.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd1.png Size: 29 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd2.png Size: 29 KB
  • #12,134
  • Mar 27, 2011 10:05am Mar 27, 2011 10:05am
Hi, Chris:

It is very interesting that you wrote this post when I was posting my trading plan in the private forum (http://www.forexfantasies.com/boards...hp?f=158&t=748). I was planning to long Aussie after the breakout. But the 4H pinbar at 1.0250ish turned me into bearish mind. Here is the chart from my feed. In my plan, I was trying to short Aussie for the pinbar (fakeout).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2011-3-27 22-08-35.gif Size: 20 KB


Maybe I will try to long it tomorrow as a breakout trade. Thanks for sharing your ideas.

BTW, may I ask your initial stop position? I guess it will be 1.0180ish (20 pips below the hurdle).

Regards,
Yang

Quoting clockwork71
Aussie looks like it is trying to wind up and take off. Based upon the rectangle-ish area we had been stuck in, it appears that 500 pips could be in the cards. (You get this from measuring the height of the rectangle, in this case from 0.97 to 1.02) So.....add 500 to 1.02 (the basic area of the break out) and you get 1.07 as a target.

The second chart shows where I want to get a signal to go long on the 4 hour chart. (this signal is so interesting, I might even use the 1 hour chart.) I would say that if I use the 1 hour, I would still base may...
  • #12,135
  • Mar 27, 2011 10:56am Mar 27, 2011 10:56am
Quoting clockwork71
KC? Then why the UNLV in the name? Always assumed you were in Vegas. Actually, Lamar was either full owner, or partial owner of the Chicago Bulls, KC Wizards, (Even if your original name was "Wiz" lol) Columbus Crew, Chiefs, Dallas Mavericks? and another baseball team somewhere. I think he had a small addiction. :-)

Anyways, yes - he and his brother just about cornered the silver market in the 70s. It's a really interesting story. It is amazing what being involved with oil allows you to do. I missed my calling.
Yea, lived in KC for the last (almost) 11 years, and before that grew up in Missouri.

The UNLV comes from my first hotmail address I still use and created back in the 1990's when I still watched/played basketball all the time.

I was a huge UNLV fan back when Tark was there and college basketball still had big time stars instead of everyone bolting for the NBA. Then as I got older, I realized the NCAA is a pretty crappy run organization that picks on the smaller guys to try to reward the bigger guys and keep a cash cow by selling merchandise.

And of all this scam, only one man has had the guts to stick it back to the NCAA. Tark. If there is anyone sick of how political the NCAA has become, they need to read on Tark and how at least there was one man with the onions to fight back and he won pretty big.
  • #12,136
  • Mar 27, 2011 11:19am Mar 27, 2011 11:19am
Quoting syyzxsyf
Hi, Chris:

It is very interesting that you wrote this post when I was posting my trading plan in the private forum (http://www.forexfantasies.com/boards...hp?f=158&t=748). I was planning to long Aussie after the breakout. But the 4H pinbar at 1.0250ish turned me into bearish mind. Here is the chart from my feed. In my plan, I was trying to short Aussie for the pinbar (fakeout).
Attachment

Maybe I will try to long it tomorrow as a breakout trade. Thanks for sharing your ideas.

BTW, may I ask your initial stop position?...
You and I must have different time feeds.....my broker doesn't show the pinbar. But....I think this pair wants to break out. Of course, 1.02 has to hold for that to happen. Because of this, I would place a stop a little lower than you suggest, but not too deep. Maybe something like 1.0150 or so. I am hoping to see a pinbar above or at 1.02 as a signal to go long. Maybe a bullish outside bar as well......I am not sure, just going to sit and wait to see what Monday brings.

Sorry about the delay - I am actually finishing the newsletter as we speak. You should be getting an email in a few minutes.....

Chris
  • #12,137
  • Mar 27, 2011 11:20am Mar 27, 2011 11:20am
Quoting unlv_tj
Yea, lived in KC for the last (almost) 11 years, and before that grew up in Missouri.

The UNLV comes from my first hotmail address I still use and created back in the 1990's when I still watched/played basketball all the time.

I was a huge UNLV fan back when Tark was there and college basketball still had big time stars instead of everyone bolting for the NBA....
Agreed.

It's funny how the forums can give you the wrong impression. To be honest, I always thought you we younger, like an UNLV student!

Go figure.
  • #12,138
  • Mar 27, 2011 11:42am Mar 27, 2011 11:42am
Thanks for your comments. I will seek long position tomorrow. If Fxpro doesn't show the bearish pinbar, it may become an ideal breakout/pullback trade.

I am now waiting for your great newsletter...

Have a good day.

Quoting clockwork71
You and I must have different time feeds.....my broker doesn't show the pinbar. But....I think this pair wants to break out. Of course, 1.02 has to hold for that to happen. Because of this, I would place a stop a little lower than you suggest, but not too deep. Maybe something like 1.0150 or so. I am hoping to see a pinbar above or at 1.02 as a signal to go long. Maybe a bullish outside bar as well......I am not sure, just going to sit and wait to see what Monday brings.

Sorry about the delay - I am actually finishing the newsletter as...
  • #12,139
  • Mar 27, 2011 11:59am Mar 27, 2011 11:59am
Quoting clockwork71
Agreed.

It's funny how the forums can give you the wrong impression. To be honest, I always thought you we younger, like an UNLV student!

Go figure.
LOL, nope, I turn 33 this summer, been out of college for almost 11 years. It is amazing how fast it all goes by.

No wife, girl friend, kids or anything like that. So basically I still live like I am in college, saving every penny, but instead of for beer money it is for early retirement.

I guess I am at a big crossroads in my life. I don't like my career field (computer programmer), but I have to do it to pay the bills. I don't like living in KC as a single in his 30's (not a singles city). I really will just say, there is nothing about my life that I enjoy or do like. I work 3 jobs (if I count FOREX) and have no real hobbies or excitement or even enjoyment.

But that will not change anytime soon until I pass these crossroads from computer programmer to trading my own nest egg. Because as long as I work a job I dislike it will turn my stomach to spend one penny more than I have to, to survive.
  • #12,140
  • Mar 27, 2011 4:09pm Mar 27, 2011 4:09pm
Quoting clockwork71
It is becoming apparent to me that finance is simply a game where we are inflating bubbles, and then popping them. We certainly seem to be doing that right now.
I've come to share that view. I've realized it's called the Boom Bust cycle for a reason.

Quoting clockwork71
I don't think we will see the fall of gold soon, as this feels a lot like 2005, not 2007. I think we have a way to go....but I am not in a rush to buy metals for anything more than a quick trade.
I no longer even try to use the crystal ball to guess/predict when things will happen. That much I've learned...

I'll be waiting patiently until it happens
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