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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #23,701
  • Mar 26, 2011 1:36am Mar 26, 2011 1:36am
Quoting dongsky
I agree with you here fti, what you have said reminds me of myself 3 months ago when a financial institution here lured me to work for them, with heaps of promises... i was so eager and excited during that time... but after awhile, i realized that the package-deal they're giving me is more or less the same with what i'm getting with my personal account... then i turned it down...

working on my own account is a lot more better i believe; no stress... but of course if not having enough or sufficient funds to play around then working for them is...
Niels, maybe ask for a short term contract. If you do well, then at the end of the contract, ask for a better one. If it does not work out well, then you just lost a little bit of your time. Just a idea. All the best. Ray
  • #23,702
  • Mar 26, 2011 2:14am Mar 26, 2011 2:14am
Just finished watching this epic movie..


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Cliff_(film)



V
  • #23,703
  • Mar 26, 2011 2:59am Mar 26, 2011 2:59am
Great movie! Also involves a lot of the lessons.

Also, I just saw a pennant pattern fail, mutate into a saucer and then mutate into a double top. This happened all in one range--very cool. Scout really helps to focus on these mutations I think. If I were not in the market, I would not have seen the sequence of mutation. All I would have seen is a double top.


Quoting indianguyinny24
Just finished watching this epic movie..


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Cliff_(film)



V
  • #23,704
  • Mar 26, 2011 3:02am Mar 26, 2011 3:02am
Quoting fti
Apologies
-no mentor, or course, or literiture can give anyone the holy grail to the secrets of success in trading in the markets.
-"and no one, sells the goose that lays golden eggs, probably the eggs, but never the goose"
Nevertheless, I will humbly attempt.

Since the late 70s and into the millinium.
Many "engineers" have made public, their inventions of reading probabilities into Technical Indicators. Many Technical Analysis Gurus came to the forefront to sell their research findings. To name a few,
The Grand daddy being Charles Dow...

with sacrifices, trial and error and with Perseverance we shall prevail!
  • #23,705
  • Mar 26, 2011 3:59am Mar 26, 2011 3:59am
Quoting fti
i see
Mahmood, tell them , if you recognise skill , then use me.
If you want teach me your ways, then prove me your skills.
But no try abuse me.
If you want me get certification. Hire me pay me a bomb. then send me to certification.
Ask them skills not come cheap.
Put the money on the table. Talk is cheap.
Money talks, bullshit walks.

And no speak to them until someone who can make decision imediately, comes speak to you.
Don't sell yourself short.
Yes, this may be your first of thousands. Besure of your skills and your abilities. No need to...
Dear fti,

thanx a lot for your comments!

Yeah - you are very right, but I was not sure about my own value.

I know my skills very well.
And I can demonstrate them to everyone everytime!

So, if they are really interested in me to grow their funds, they should make a serious offer and give it a try. They can stop that arrangement, whenever I fall behind the (ir) expectations ...

Many thanx for that clear statement of yours!



Niels
  • #23,706
  • Edited 6:06am Mar 26, 2011 4:53am | Edited 6:06am
Quoting fullperson
Of all the stories, I liked the fisherman story the best. I am very lucky and blessed to have a good garden and be young enough to enjoy it. Friends, music, family, health ect.

I have achieved all that I need already for a very happy and fulfilling life. Because I am very happy already, I have no need for ego (do I care if someone is better off then me? No, I have everything I need), fear, ect.

Why then I have so much zeal? Because I am a curious kid that enjoys learning and practicing. I don't care about foreign capital as much as I enjoy...


and Gro, now i need change thread name to "my garden" soon.

Inserted Video


Inserted Video


Inserted Video


Inserted Video


regards
  • #23,707
  • Mar 26, 2011 7:07am Mar 26, 2011 7:07am
Inserted Video
  • #23,708
  • Mar 26, 2011 1:31pm Mar 26, 2011 1:31pm
Quoting fti


and Gro, now i need change thread name to "my garden" soon.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ni3gJB_IYnM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1taY9sBRyZs

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z6Ia2Hd_IvM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M1Zgfnn44io

regards
... it's time to! maybe, take off Dragon? Fly!

PS You have a nice garden, a pleasant stay ... it's good that you "found your sword" (sorry "spade").
  • #23,709
  • Mar 26, 2011 3:36pm Mar 26, 2011 3:36pm
on simulator today, went through a very big 38 pip sweep (feels like a stop run). I was on lvl 2 rescue. Before the sweep, market hinted with strong volatility bar of 4 pip (I could have gotten out or reduced exposure, but ego got me), then another bar up slapped me at 8 pips. Needless to say I was a bit under. I felt myself thinking maybe lvl 2 is too much to loose? But then I remembered the Karl story-so I squared. I had foreign cap built up, but I knew it was no reason to be a karl.

At about 8 pips, god sent me a lifeboat (retrace). I exited with a small loss.

Sweep went up 32 pips ( about 1.5 std in the range I was working with).

Then I see weakness and notice that my strategy was still intact, general trend was still intact, and remembered that it was only a sweep within a small range. So I skewed in to recover losses when volatility dropped and price pushed down. I made out with very good profit after an hour.

IF I had not cut loose I would have been smushed.

Lesson: fti's "stories" are no joke. If you see a flood coming and god sends you a lifeboat, take it. If you are heavily skewed, and you see a sweep coming, reduce exposure pronto or square.

also, I learned I still have some ego (did not take 4 pip high volatility hint and waited instead). It is very true, ego will paralyze. Market spared me this time- I am very humbled.
  • #23,710
  • Mar 26, 2011 4:03pm Mar 26, 2011 4:03pm
Quoting fullperson
on simulator today, went through a very big 38 pip sweep (feels like a stop run). I was on lvl 2 rescue. Before the sweep, market hinted with strong volatility bar of 4 pip (I could have gotten out or reduced exposure, but ego got me), then another bar up slapped me at 8 pips. Needless to say I was a bit under. I felt myself thinking maybe lvl 2 is too much to loose? But then I remembered the Karl story-so I squared. I had foreign cap built up, but I knew it was no reason to be a karl.

At about 8 pips, god sent me a lifeboat (retrace). I exited...
Is the simulator a random generator or replay of actual markets? There's a difference. Sweeps are not random.

38 pips should not make or break you, if your heavily skewed in that small of a market range, you're playing it "WAY TO CLOSE".

imwo,
  • #23,711
  • Mar 26, 2011 4:59pm Mar 26, 2011 4:59pm
replay of markets of course.

You bring up a good point auxesis, I definitely am playing too close to the market. What if the volatility had not returned (stuck in marshes). Now that the range had broken, what's my trend (can I even rescue)? Below is what I was thinking while I was rescuing:

Let me clarify, the market had been in a 25 pip range, but the terrain was changing towards higher volatility about 40+ pips. For a market within avg of 25 pip range turning 40+, I thought rescuing early would be appropriate (volatility was *returning* so I am not endanger of being stuck trudging through low volatility marshes.) In addition, there was a triple top, and the volatility absolutely died once it hit that, followed by price making a nice bear candle (opportunity time window). The price was still within a down trend, though it broke a range (trend still intact).

Finally I realized that price was not ranging anymore at the point that I was at, instead it was indicative of having the force capable of closing an earlier 40 pip gap in my direction to attack. This meant I had a new strategy and my objective had changed. My rescue had effectively become a badly timed attack for my new objective. All these conditions prompted me to make this rescue.

You can see by my reasoning that I still had a bit of ego in there. That is why I say that the market had spared me this time, despite profiting from a rescue which turned into an attack force. I can't let profit be any kind of positive reinforcement for my behavior.
  • #23,712
  • Mar 27, 2011 12:22am Mar 27, 2011 12:22am
And I can demonstrate them to everyone everytime!

careful, ego scorpion must be caged.

They can stop that arrangement, whenever I fall behind the (ir) expectations ...

good mindset. You are only as good as your last trade.



Quoting MaMood
Dear fti,

thanx a lot for your comments!

Yeah - you are very right, but I was not sure about my own value.

I know my skills very well.
And I can demonstrate them to everyone everytime!

So, if they are really interested in me to grow their funds, they should make a serious offer and give it a try. They can stop that arrangement, whenever I fall behind the (ir) expectations ...

Many thanx for that clear statement of yours!



Niels
  • #23,713
  • Mar 27, 2011 1:09am Mar 27, 2011 1:09am
Hi and good morning Auxesis and Fullperson!

As you know for sure, I'm also one of these WTC (WAY TO CLOSE) guys.

The reason for behaving/trading that way is quite easy: It gives you the opportunity to reduce your trading time to some smaller time windows over the day. Trading very close to the market generates a good amount of pips in a very short time. And also rescues will take not that much time.

The downside is also very obvious: Cause you are trading strong exposure to small pip-moves, a sudden strong reaction in PA is a possible "source of pain" for you. But as Fullperson has described above: He has reduced his exposure soon and waited how the scenario was going to develop.

From my experience I can not see a problem in trading WTC in generell. It only requires, that you are very focussed on PA and react accordingly without hesitation (reflex-like).

But everyone has to find his niche of his own. WTC dancing is one of my MO's. But to be honest, I can not trade it every day, becuase of different market behavior/forms. And of course my mindset does not allow that way of dancing every day.

I pay much attention to have a good idea, how strong my mindset is everyday, before i start trading big. Making some very defensive pips with scout (or maybe 1,1,1 Skew) gives me a very good idea, if I'm strong, just ok or weak ..

All the best,
Niels

ps.: @Auxesis - Seeing a lot of circles and ellipses. Seems to be an interesting piece of (art) work. But have no final opinion about it. But I'm open minded ... :-)
  • #23,714
  • Mar 27, 2011 1:20am Mar 27, 2011 1:20am
Quoting fti
[...] Was nice skining the panda this round.
even a fish would not get into trouble if it knows when to keep mouth shut. Esp if open mouth talk about others currency, when its own is hidden in fist. So what did panda said would happen to usd in 2011?
crystalballs broke?
Ability and actions , they speak loauder than words.


regards
Cool!
  • #23,715
  • Mar 27, 2011 1:47am Mar 27, 2011 1:47am
Hi again,

was poking arround in FF for the past hour and found some new service coming up on FF.

Have a look at this profile at the section in the middle.
Some statitics about trades. Seems FF is going to offer something like myFXBook or similiar ...

http://www.forexfactory.com/tjpld

CU,
Niels
  • #23,716
  • Edited 5:14am Mar 27, 2011 4:06am | Edited 5:14am
Japan: Radiation 10 million times higher

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12873439

Inserted Video


reminds me of heli ego.
Everything thy had tried seems had failed.
Only the Ego keeps saying is correct.
The ante keeps skewing up, still not kill it,
Ultimately who pays the bills?
Hallmarks of reckless commanders.
Lets hope they have good generals come to their rescue.

Inserted Video
  • #23,717
  • Edited 4:46am Mar 27, 2011 4:24am | Edited 4:46am
@ Mamood,

i had been thinking.

It could be that the peeps picking you up is notthe dealing of the bank.
Note that this IB is also brokerage.

remember that although you demonstartate good skills.
Ultimately you surcummed to your scorpion.
May had learned skills, but you may not had internalise or may had misunderstood required mindset.
Living at the edge(too close) is dangerous mindset.
Is desperation. The desperation to get to No 1 took you off your learned mindset.
Because was a game. In real portfolio never let it happen.
This is the type of pressure they will be imposing on you. They are bad managers. And they will will cotinue impliment this pressure on you.
I do not suggest the path.

Purpose of the skewing MM abilities have limitations.
When against trend , risk must be contained within your foreign cap scope, or you in violation of book preservation.
Your mindset seems "have no choice" attitute is in err. check ego, also check ambition.
Death fights are supposed fought around your book BE of foreign cap. Not at point of book destruction.
Your niche is in profitability consistency, not on 1 solid victory run. Please recheck your mindset.
You have this tendency.
Remember your 3000e do or die accounts?

Never walk into gun battle with only a knife, even you spent your ammo. Easy get killed.
That is not brave, is recklessness. Even a Gruka will not Koocuri, until have death wish.
So try never plan "kamikaze" strategies.
even kamikaze strategies need have contingency.

regards
  • #23,718
  • Mar 27, 2011 5:03am Mar 27, 2011 5:03am
Quoting fti
Note the lines the dealers dealing on, in the clip
is 5s 10s. Top tiers make market in 50s. Prices good for up to 200. for 5s and 10s, they'll make you choice prices to deal. Modstly won't even pick up comm line , unless you in the circle.


regards
Dear Fti

Another qns hope u can enlighten me...

Within the 1st 100 pages of TAF u mentioned when the junior or senior dealers are trading against the trend their books land on your lap to implement rescue ops or damage control...

So in the documentary when the dealers booked in their P&L are these realised or unrealised P&L

So if a junior or senior dealer hit their daily limit (i'm assumming it's unrealised) before their shift is up there are told to stop trading for the day... When they return for their shift the next day do they start afresh on their booksize or their risk parameters are reset after factoring the loss ( again on assumption it's unrealised)...

Also does the book get passed along to your overseas counterparty i.e. Asian to UK then to US of the same bank to manage the positions?


Regards
Philip
"Thinking Heart & Feeling Brain"
  • #23,719
  • Edited 5:57am Mar 27, 2011 5:22am | Edited 5:57am
Quoting Sylar
Dear Fti

Another qns hope u can enlighten me...

Within the 1st 100 pages of TAF u mentioned when the junior or senior dealers are trading against the trend their books land on your lap to implement rescue ops or damage control......
sylar,
When dealers hits P&L stop lines, They are off lined for at least 1 week depending on damage.
You must distinguish that these are cash books.
His books still belongs to him and his team. So positions are managed accordingly to the skills of his team, without him.
His book performance is contained within his team and the room. Although orders are forwarded to be watched at different sectors, nothing else leaves the room.
Global team books , will have zone partners monitoring the status of the book.

regards
  • #23,720
  • Mar 27, 2011 5:30am Mar 27, 2011 5:30am
Quoting MaMood

ps.: @Auxesis - Seeing a lot of circles and ellipses. Seems to be an interesting piece of (art) work. But have no final opinion about it. But I'm open minded ... :-)
Just some conversation with others who seek a different path. Imho, trying to incorporate it into your existing MO would be disastrous to your book! Concentrate on your abilities and what has gotten your to this point, keep with the basics and always be checking for scorpions, as trading others money can present it's own problems.

Take care and good luck......don't forget who you are.

john
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