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Price is everything

  • #13,521
  • Mar 26, 2011 5:33am Mar 26, 2011 5:33am
Quoting tjfxtrader
The stops are there because anything can happen.

That is exactly the point. You can do all the calculations you want but ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN which means you can't be 100% sure. If you are not 100% sure and you are not guessing, then what do you want to call what you are doing?

Guess: To make an estimate or conjecture.

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.......... was given the opportunity to spread bet this week, new to me so had to get used to it a little


13.66% in 3 days active trading by JUST GUESSING ............



.......... and you are making it sound as if we trade luck despite your defination of a guess - l guess nothing, trade PA as it develops @ the zones that we plot as zones of INTEREST to view PA



my defination of guessing in respect to S/D is placing limit orders, buy limts and/or sell limts just because the zone LOOKS LIKE a S/D zone that will be respected - there is no way of telling until PRICE ARRIVAL, PA WATCH and then EXECUTION if prices give you the signs of BULLISH ENGUILFING @ DEMAND and BEARISH ENGUILFING @ SUPPLY


prices can not rally without bullish enguilfing


prices can not drop without bearish enguilfing


how prices leave a zone varies - 2 candle reversal, pin, cluster then cluster resolves, fast move followed by retest etc - HENCE PA WATCH


THE ARGUEMENT YOU HAVE ABOUT STOPS AND RELATING THAT TO GUESSING THE MARKET IS OFF SOMEWHAT, ITS TRUE ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN BUT THE STOP IS THERE FOR THAT REASON BUT IT DOESN'T MEAN YOU ENTER THE TRADE BASED ON BLIND LUCK..... LETS SAY THE TRADER BASED HIS ENTRY ON PA @ THE ZONE AND THE MARKET STILL WENT AGAINST THE POSTION - THATS WHAT THE STOP IS FOR, NOT BECAUSE THE ENTRY WAS BASED ON BLIND LUCK AS YOU ARE MAKING IT SOUND


A GUESS IS PLACING LIMITS BECAUSE YOU THINK IT LOOKS LIKE A DEMAND OR SUPPLY ZONE AND NOT WAITING FOR PA TO GIVE ENTRY - NOT THE DEFINATION YOU ARE GIVING WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF THIS TOPIC
  • #13,522
  • Mar 26, 2011 6:01am Mar 26, 2011 6:01am
Inserted Video




............what for, why this ............. ?




dis harmonic world
  • #13,523
  • Edited 6:59am Mar 26, 2011 6:58am | Edited 6:59am
eu update for nextweek....
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Gold Expedition Return This Year: -16.4%
  • #13,524
  • Mar 26, 2011 8:53am Mar 26, 2011 8:53am
Quoting tjfxtrader
The stops are there because anything can happen.

That is exactly the point. You can do all the calculations you want but ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN which means you can't be 100% sure. If you are not 100% sure and you are not guessing, then what do you want to call what you are doing?

Guess: To make an estimate or conjecture.
Hey mate,
You spend here so many hours and you still didn't get concept.You said you reread all thread and still can not find it?
Mate is S/D zones and we must get there PA so how come is this guess?).
Why did you spend so many hrs here just learn how to guess?)If you canot get concept just move to dif.thread and don't post your junk here pls.

KV
  • #13,525
  • Mar 26, 2011 8:58am Mar 26, 2011 8:58am
Quoting tjfxtrader
The stops are there because anything can happen.

That is exactly the point. You can do all the calculations you want but ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN which means you can't be 100% sure. If you are not 100% sure and you are not guessing, then what do you want to call what you are doing?

Guess: To make an estimate or conjecture.
Heheh again the some subject like a week ago).
So stop guesing and move somewhere nor reread another 100 times this thread and if u still guessing then you are ready for Russian rulet with one bulet so good luck mate.

FX
  • #13,526
  • Mar 26, 2011 9:16am Mar 26, 2011 9:16am
Red. How much you risk at one trade? I know that you often use mental stops but when you cut losses - what is the % of all deposit?

Thanks
Signature: Correct me, please.
  • #13,527
  • Mar 26, 2011 9:23am Mar 26, 2011 9:23am
Quoting redsword11
Attachment

THE LEFT



Attachment


....... THE RIGHT



its taken out the low, but just under the low of the previous rally is a zone, this is a trap - further PA will tell, but l would say, dx spikes the zone, rejection and off north. It might visit the source of the inverting bull ( refer to left chart ) and then off. But we don't guess as PA traders, we simply take it as it develops. Just to be mindfold of this level as its got good structure and clean PA from the past


........ and it does appear you traders are...

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....... refer to first post and this will make alot more sense


was out by just a margin - as suggested by price structure AHEAD OF CURRENT WORLD EVENTS AND FUNDAMENTAL BS
  • #13,528
  • Mar 26, 2011 9:24am Mar 26, 2011 9:24am
Quoting adm.kowal
Red. How much you risk at one trade? I know that you often use mental stops but when you cut losses - what is the % of all deposit?

Thanks

this is a personal subject - would not discuss here
  • #13,529
  • Mar 26, 2011 11:19am Mar 26, 2011 11:19am
Ive been asked to show how i work on smaller timeframes. As you can see from the charts which i have labeled and provided detailed explanation on why i entered these trades, what i was looking for etc.

As you can see i did not take a lot of trades. This is because (and this is important) as red stated correctly, you dont need to be in the market all the time and every dozen of ticks.
If you keep obsessing over one chart you will miss opportunities on the other charts. Take the safe trades and fuck the rest. Also remember that when looking at the chart its obvious to say: "Yeah i shouldnt have taken that trade" Hindsight is always 20/20, take away the right hand side of the market to understand what ive seen and why i took those loosing trades, calculated risk but going through my trades and i remember each loosing trade i place i realize easily that i should have waited for more price action confirmation.
Also you need to look at what higher timeframes were presenting to you during this time, i usually looked at 4hr and 1hr and 15minute. Although 15M and 5M is where the action was at for me.

I've also outlined the loosing trades for Monday-Wednesday, showing why i entered them, and what the mistakes were.

As you can see i didnt take a lot of trades which had a long duration of keeping them. I usually scalp the markets. Infact i spent about 80% of my time on Thursday and Friday correcting the mistakes ive made on wed-Friday to makeup for the losses i have incurred upon myself.

This happens, if youre a trader you learn to deal with it. Ive had about 120 trades per day on average out of those trades about 90 were pure scalps for 2-3 pips to makeup for the mistakes since i usually enter heavily on longerterm trades.

I hope these charts will prove helpful to some of you. If you have questions ill be happy to answer them for you, in the mean time ill prepare the analysis for EU for next week.
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  • #13,530
  • Mar 26, 2011 11:37am Mar 26, 2011 11:37am
Quoting tjfxtrader
The stops are there because anything can happen.

That is exactly the point. You can do all the calculations you want but ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN which means you can't be 100% sure. If you are not 100% sure and you are not guessing, then what do you want to call what you are doing?

Guess: To make an estimate or conjecture.
Currently on a 16 winning streak. Looking to break my last record of 39 wins.

Yeah, sure. Markets are 'random' and I am 'guessing'. lol... keep telling yourself that.

If I were guessing, I would have no better and no worse then a 50% win ratio.
  • #13,531
  • Mar 26, 2011 12:34pm Mar 26, 2011 12:34pm
Quoting Venice
Currently on a 16 winning streak. Looking to break my last record of 39 wins.

Yeah, sure. Markets are 'random' and I am 'guessing'. lol... keep telling yourself that.

If I were guessing, I would have no better and no worse then a 50% win ratio.
AMAZING!.
I'm not even close... tbh
  • #13,532
  • Mar 26, 2011 12:48pm Mar 26, 2011 12:48pm
Quoting Venice
Currently on a 16 winning streak. Looking to break my last record of 39 wins.

Yeah, sure. Markets are 'random' and I am 'guessing'. lol... keep telling yourself that.

If I were guessing, I would have no better and no worse then a 50% win ratio.
Bloody hell you are very good guessing trader lol.That's random!
and guess what?
ANY TF AND ANY MARKET and I guess every day the same random questions.
  • #13,533
  • Mar 26, 2011 1:09pm Mar 26, 2011 1:09pm
Quoting Orbital
Ive been asked to show how i work on smaller timeframes. As you can see from the charts which i have labeled and provided detailed explanation on why i entered these trades, what i was looking for etc.

As you can see i did not take a lot of trades. This is because (and this is important) as red stated correctly, you dont need to be in the market all the time and every dozen of ticks.
If you keep obsessing over one chart you will miss opportunities on the other charts. Take the safe trades and fuck the rest. Also remember that when...

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this broker closed an hour earlier due to day light savings - price has moved into positive territory - this chart does not show the market close of price
  • #13,534
  • Mar 26, 2011 1:10pm Mar 26, 2011 1:10pm
Orbital, brilliant charts. These explanations are gold if you aren't getting S/D trading yet.

(Heh. Also glad to see someone besides me took that failed breakout on your second chart.)

Watch Seiden's vids, read and digest the charts. Red is brilliant at showing example after example of how this works. There is a ton of other more subtle things to be learned from these charts as well.

Best forex thread on the net.

Mike
  • #13,535
  • Mar 26, 2011 2:13pm Mar 26, 2011 2:13pm
some point ... if they break the ice
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TRUST THE PROCESS !
  • #13,536
  • Mar 26, 2011 2:32pm Mar 26, 2011 2:32pm
Quoting redsword11
Attachment



this broker closed an hour earlier due to day light savings - price has moved into positive territory - this chart does not show the market close of price
The chart is only missing a bar showing a 10 pip move higher so its no biggie.

Im waiting for the market open on sunday, if theres a proffessional gap im buying, if theres a small gap into demand im buying aswell.

Only scalped those bars up and down if you remember from our discussions ^^
  • #13,537
  • Mar 26, 2011 3:08pm Mar 26, 2011 3:08pm
".......... and you are making it sound as if we trade luck despite your defination of a guess - l guess nothing, trade PA as it develops @ the zones that we plot as zones of INTEREST to view PA"

Did I strike a nerve or something? My posts are not personal attacks even though some have attacked me. In trading, there is both skill and luck. You can do everything "right" and still lose. Call it "bad luck". The point about the stop is to emphasize this.
  • #13,538
  • Mar 26, 2011 3:11pm Mar 26, 2011 3:11pm
Quoting redsword11
this is a personal subject - would not discuss here
You could answer as a percentage of your account balance rather than in dollars. I would wager that is what they were asking.

Red, do you risk 0.5% of your account balance per trade? 1% per trade?
  • #13,539
  • Mar 26, 2011 3:19pm Mar 26, 2011 3:19pm
Quoting Venice
If I were guessing, I would have no better and no worse then a 50% win ratio.
That's a fallacy.
  • #13,540
  • Mar 26, 2011 3:30pm Mar 26, 2011 3:30pm
Quoting redsword11
THE ARGUEMENT YOU HAVE ABOUT STOPS AND RELATING THAT TO GUESSING THE MARKET IS OFF SOMEWHAT, ITS TRUE ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN BUT THE STOP IS THERE FOR THAT REASON BUT IT DOESN'T MEAN YOU ENTER THE TRADE BASED ON BLIND LUCK..... LETS SAY THE TRADER BASED HIS ENTRY ON PA @ THE ZONE AND THE MARKET STILL WENT AGAINST THE POSTION - THATS WHAT THE STOP IS FOR, NOT BECAUSE THE ENTRY WAS BASED ON BLIND LUCK AS YOU ARE MAKING IT SOUND
Red, once again, you are getting defensive for no reason at all. My comments are not personal attacks. Please don't take them that way.

No where did I comment that your method or entries are based on BLIND LUCK.

"ITS TRUE ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN BUT THE STOP IS THERE FOR THAT REASON" - that IS the point. Since anything can happen ( no matter how well you read the charts ) you have to admit there is something other than your skill that determines the outcome of your trade. Placing a stop loss is your ADMISSION that your analysis of the current environment could be wrong or the environment could change while you are in this trade and you are not will to risk more than N pips on this trade.

Case in point would be the Bank of Japan intervention. If you were in a Yen pair when this happened, you either made out like a bandit, or got your you-know-what whooped unless you had a stop loss place and it was honored. Good luck? Bad luck? Depends on what side of the trade you were in at the time.
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