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Trading Major Lines

  • #521
  • Mar 25, 2011 9:10am Mar 25, 2011 9:10am
Quoting AlienFrog
Nomask, I have a question for you. Just wondering why did you move the lower end of your fib up to the next swing low, instead of leaving it where it was?
http://www.forexfactory.com/C:%5CDoc...ts%5Cchart.jpg
Because I play single weekly candles..
That would be playing two weekly candles if I left it where it was..
one wkly candle-----)one 4hr candle-----)5min.
  • #522
  • Mar 25, 2011 3:15pm Mar 25, 2011 3:15pm
Its been 5 weeks since I started this thread.
Now its time to recap..
From time to time I look back and study charts If i was able to capture all the nice price actions and how I played them.
In the attached charts you'll see some price actions that could've been survived up today.
So If I was able to play all of them.
now I could have 4 positions equaling to around 1000 pips.
This is not a lesson of what I missed but training myself to make me a better trader for the future.
I suggest everyone to do it once in a while.what did you do good or bad why did yo do them.ask yourself find your answers.
was the reason you were overtrading or got scared of losing all your pips?
try to find your weak sides and make them stronger by facing.
don't ignore your mistakes.
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  • #523
  • Mar 25, 2011 3:18pm Mar 25, 2011 3:18pm
last chart
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  • #524
  • Mar 25, 2011 3:33pm Mar 25, 2011 3:33pm
Quoting nomask
last chart
nomask, thanks for the recap. Have a nice weekend. My one and only one position is living it. Let's see how it goes next week.


Have a nice weekend all.

Leelar
  • #525
  • Mar 25, 2011 4:22pm Mar 25, 2011 4:22pm
Thanks nomask for the recap. Lets forget about what we have missed and I have missed a lot this week.

We just need to learn from what we have missed

Wishing everyone bucket loads of pips next week
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #526
  • Mar 25, 2011 6:07pm Mar 25, 2011 6:07pm
Thanks Nomask for the recap
  • #527
  • Mar 25, 2011 7:36pm Mar 25, 2011 7:36pm
Checking in at the end of the week after that disastrous finish to the week lol. I was rudely awaken to see I was stopped out at B/E. But hey, first time can't be a home run can it? Thanks for sharing more charts Nomask. Really helping me with the repetition! I'd like to post my analysis for next week so I can compare what you will hopefully be posting at some point over the weekend.

I've attached my chart for a different timezones reference...

Our hindsight is still biased to the long side correct? We had an unexpected week this week in most of our eyes (but that happens in Fx). However we did not penetrate 1.4. If anything it seems reasonable to see a true retest of 1.4 early in the week given that large momentum on 240 minute chart. However if the .4050 somehow holds and we see a bullish 240 candle we are still going long.

Also I'm assuming that if our bias to the long side is still in tact our current Fib is also still valid.

Edit: Also wanted to point out how strong AUDUSD looks after breaking through that 1.0 level although still not out of this range completely. Fourth time a charm? lol.
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Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #528
  • Mar 27, 2011 3:18pm Mar 27, 2011 3:18pm
Quoting zusch
Checking in at the end of the week after that disastrous finish to the week lol. I was rudely awaken to see I was stopped out at B/E. But hey, first time can't be a home run can it?...
you`re correct with your analysis.
still biased long and we might enter long after a new p.a on 4hr(test of latest support would be nice around 1.40xx
  • #529
  • Mar 27, 2011 5:24pm Mar 27, 2011 5:24pm
for your analysis.

I know you monitor eurusd, but I wonder what your take is on gbpusd now that it is around 1.6000

Thanks very much.
  • #530
  • Mar 27, 2011 6:10pm Mar 27, 2011 6:10pm
I'll take a crack pure price since I follow g/u too. As long as weekly chart is above 1.6000 we would still be looking for longs. However as I write this price action is testing the 1.6000. We need to wait for a 4 hour candle close. If closes below 1.6000 then I will be standing aside. If it manages to close above bullishly then longs are still in order.
  • #531
  • Mar 27, 2011 6:19pm Mar 27, 2011 6:19pm
Quoting Winston Reed
I'll take a crack pure price since I follow g/u too. As long as weekly chart is above 1.6000 we would still be looking for longs. However as I write this price action is testing the 1.6000. We need to wait for a 4 hour candle close. If closes below 1.6000 then I will be standing aside. If it manages to close above bullishly then longs are still in order.
Great , thanks Winston
  • #532
  • Mar 27, 2011 6:43pm Mar 27, 2011 6:43pm
No mask, let's say that on a hypothetical pair we have been biased short. Price action has successfully moved down to the next major line. There it pierces but on weekly closes above that line. Would you now be biased long?
  • #533
  • Mar 28, 2011 2:19am Mar 28, 2011 2:19am
Quoting Winston Reed
No mask, let's say that on a hypothetical pair we have been biased short. Price action has successfully moved down to the next major line. There it pierces but on weekly closes above that line. Would you now be biased long?
Depends on the shape of the weekly candle.
But If I had more than one positions ,I'd have closed some of them after the scneario you mentioned but not biased long yet.
We need a bullish price action to switch our hindsight.
Only exception is pinbars.Because after touching a major line if it makes a pinbar, price could've already moved couple hundred pips if we wanted to wait futher confirmation on the weekly t.f.

for the current gu setup.
To be honest I'd like to see an initial retracement on this pair before breaking that major line.
Because most of the time volatile moves happen after either a prolonged period of consolidation or some retracement.
not a first class setup but still worth to try a short
charts attached.
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  • #534
  • Mar 28, 2011 5:34am Mar 28, 2011 5:34am
as some of you already watching g.u...
here is the continuation of my last post about it.
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  • #535
  • Mar 28, 2011 5:46am Mar 28, 2011 5:46am
So keep that in mind.
If the price not moving to your direction, jus leave it until it starts following your direction.
lets say You set a stop at 100 pips away for regular long term trading methods but If price not moving for you now how can you be so sure that it would start doing it in the next 5,10,50 mins or whatever it is.
When it moves in our favor we hurry to move it to b.e..
Why is that?
very same reason,there is no guarantee that it would not start moving against us in the nex couple seconds.
this is called "cut your losses short"which everybody speaks of but not everybody knows how to do it.
  • #536
  • Mar 28, 2011 6:04am Mar 28, 2011 6:04am
Thanks no mask. Encouraging words of wisdom.
  • #537
  • Mar 28, 2011 6:28am Mar 28, 2011 6:28am
OK not to be labor but I really want to get this right. If you are biased short and price has travelled from one major line and is now down to the next major line and it closes below on the weekly then do you still need to wait for a retrace on the 4 hour chart or can you just look at 4 hour candles and look for retrace on the 5 minute? Seems to me you should just keep playing the short bias and look for entries from the 4 hour down to the 5 minute. Appreciate your patience no mask and this thread is truly awesome.
  • #538
  • Mar 28, 2011 7:38am Mar 28, 2011 7:38am
Quoting Winston Reed
OK not to be labor but I really want to get this right. If you are biased short and price has travelled from one major line and is now down to the next major line and it closes below on the weekly then do you still need to wait for a retrace on the 4 hour chart or can you just look at 4 hour candles and look for retrace on the 5 minute? Seems to me you should just keep playing the short bias and look for entries from the 4 hour down to the 5 minute. Appreciate your patience no mask and this thread is truly awesome.
I guess you're asking this question after looking at my charts about gu..
Thats what makes this currency pair not preferable to trade at this moment.(I called it 2nd class setup)
As you said in your post we do not have a weekly candle made a close below yet but a good looking 4hr candle.in order to biased short of this pair As per method you should wait until you get a good looking weekly candle making a close below the major line.4hr alone is not enough to make hindsight *its always weekly candle"
Since its not the case for now we should not trade it.
having said that we might still want to try to short it IF there is a really good looking setup with tiny risk expecting this week candle to be a bold down candle.You would spend 5-10 pips to find it out but if it works than you'd be mayb couple hundred pips earlier in that move..
Again.
Anything I say out of the method is not essential and half the time not worthy.
We follow the rules and master on our method then we can proceed to exceptional trades that are more exciting than regular ones
  • #539
  • Mar 28, 2011 7:44am Mar 28, 2011 7:44am
above post updated with this chart.
on the 5min it tried to fool you 3 times..more it trys to fool us less we should consider it trading.
We are looking only for descent and honest moves
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  • #540
  • Mar 28, 2011 7:55am Mar 28, 2011 7:55am
one more important thing.
If you familiar with Graeme's method "building millipede" he was more aggresive than me in terms of entries.
He doesn't look for price actions and confirmations on 5min as much as I do.
I do respect his way and really impressed with his results.
But I would not apply this approach to my trading style since I feel like I am wasting too many of my bullets and having no bullet when there is a prey easy to hunt with only one bullet.
Being picky with entries not only give you low risk trades but also keeping your gun loaded all the time.
It'll cost you missing some big preys from time to time but its better than being desperate all the time.
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