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AUDUSD for informed traders

  • #221
  • Mar 25, 2011 2:57am Mar 25, 2011 2:57am
Quoting evelee8
OMG ~ breaking 1.024..
Congrats lor..
T.T i missed the entry @ 1.019x though...haha.
I have to hammer my brain..
By missing a 50+ chance.
T.T T.T T.T
1.025 hit.
Follow by a short fall.
Short @ 1.025
  • #222
  • Mar 25, 2011 2:57am Mar 25, 2011 2:57am
Quoting evelee8
OMG ~ breaking 1.024..
Congrats lor..
T.T i missed the entry @ 1.019x though...haha.
I have to hammer my brain..
By missing a 50+ chance.
T.T T.T T.T
TP hit.

Out for the week. Do not want to sell here and risk holding a short position over the weekend.

Nice weekend to all.
  • #223
  • Mar 25, 2011 2:59am Mar 25, 2011 2:59am
Quoting skipismad
TP hit.

Out for the week. Do not want to sell here and risk holding a short position over the weekend.

Nice weekend to all.
Good trade ~ enjoy your weekend =P
  • #224
  • Mar 25, 2011 3:15am Mar 25, 2011 3:15am
Quoting evelee8
1.025 hit.
Follow by a short fall.
Short @ 1.025
Have you closed your long from 0.97? That's a whopping 500+ pips!
  • #225
  • Mar 25, 2011 3:37am Mar 25, 2011 3:37am
Quoting skipismad
Have you closed your long from 0.97? That's a whopping 500+ pips!
Not yet.. hesitating now...
Thinking to grab the interest for long..?
Unless it hit to 0.97 this bottom again . . .
=.=

Head ache... haha.
  • #226
  • Mar 25, 2011 3:40am Mar 25, 2011 3:40am
Well - actual date I don't know when - but strong news surrounding China is the fact.

Aussie was cool down after hit 1.025 - strong selling pull down to 1.0225.

By saying so - The impact of last China rake Hike did not have much impact to this pair thought.
  • #227
  • Mar 25, 2011 3:51am Mar 25, 2011 3:51am
Quoting evelee8
Not yet.. hesitating now...
Thinking to grab the interest for long..?
Unless it hit to 0.97 this bottom again . . .
=.=

Head ache... haha.
Your 500+ pips is already worth more than a years interest!

Anyway 0.97 seems like a "safe" position to hold your long, I'm not sure if we will visit there again in the near future.
  • #228
  • Mar 25, 2011 4:08am Mar 25, 2011 4:08am
Quoting skipismad
Your 500+ pips is already worth more than a years interest!

Anyway 0.97 seems like a "safe" position to hold your long, I'm not sure if we will visit there again in the near future.
haha. closed mine 0.9828 @ 400 + pips.
Enough to stay through with my 0.97xx at least for now.
I think i will HOLD .. =P
  • #229
  • Mar 25, 2011 8:24am Mar 25, 2011 8:24am
Quoting FX-Petra
Long on the pull back @ 1.0205..... only 1 lot... look to add more on a deeper drop.
Tp of 1.0250 hit overnight. Presently flat. Would LOVE a dip towards 1.0160 to get long again... But I will watch PA and take what I can get. Also have a long to trigger @ 1.0265, if a new high were to happen today.

Regards,
  • #230
  • Mar 25, 2011 9:36am Mar 25, 2011 9:36am
1.0255 blown

1.0270 and rising...
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #231
  • Mar 25, 2011 9:49am Mar 25, 2011 9:49am
Off we go, into the wild blue yonder,

Flying high, into the sun.......


On a serious note, there is big time rsi divirgence on the daily chart, so I would be surprised if we went past 1.0300 without a good pull back.

Regards,
  • #232
  • Mar 25, 2011 9:56am Mar 25, 2011 9:56am
Weeeeeeee!
  • #233
  • Mar 25, 2011 10:13am Mar 25, 2011 10:13am
Quoting FX-Petra
Off we go, into the wild blue yonder,

Flying high, into the sun.......


On a serious note, there is big time rsi divirgence on the daily chart, so I would be surprised if we went past 1.0300 without a good pull back.

Regards,
On the rsi divirgence note.... we should see some type of pull back today or early next week. But daily rsi still has room to run before hitting overbought territory, so the pull back should be temporary. I estimate (I said Estimate) that we will not hit real oversold territory until the 375-450 region. A lot depends on how fast we rise. Once there, then we can start thinking about a sustianed pull back towards parity. Not sure I will be short this pair, even under those circumstances.

Regards
  • #234
  • Mar 25, 2011 10:15am Mar 25, 2011 10:15am
check out the last 2 highs and subsequent pull backs
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.JPG Size: 176 KB
  • #235
  • Mar 25, 2011 10:25am Mar 25, 2011 10:25am
Hmm.. the evidence is building, with technical reversal patterns in play on EUR/AUD (although this looks like it might fail) and AUD/CAD...
Gone to a better place
  • #236
  • Mar 26, 2011 3:11pm Mar 26, 2011 3:11pm
For info, I received an email from Twee (the guy who runs Forex Factory) this weekend requesting to change the name of this thread to differentiate it from the other AUD thread. FF would normally merge one thread with the other, but Twee seems to like the "no BS" approach of this thread and wants to retain it as a separate thread.

This thread's name will change from AUDUSD to "AUDUSD for informed traders" (Twee's suggestion) - likely to occur at some point next week.

I'll post a chart and some commentary later today.
  • #237
  • Mar 26, 2011 3:45pm Mar 26, 2011 3:45pm
So fundamentally what is going on? I expected the Japanese to start closing their carry trades and buying back their Yen to pay for repairs.
Anyway, I closed my long position; and am waiting to go short. Looks like a triple top to me. What do you think? http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
  • #238
  • Edited 6:39pm Mar 26, 2011 6:14pm | Edited 6:39pm
Quoting jerrycollie
Anyway, I closed my long position; and am waiting to go short. Looks like a triple top to me. What do you think? http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
At the beginning of last week, I pointed out the consolidation continuation pattern on the weekly and commented that this was likely to follow through with price pushing north and that this north push would likely last for some time. The continuation pattern has now been confirmed.

What typically happens with these patterns is that price will retrace to the former resistance in the first instance (1.01820 - 1.0200). That former resistance then becomes the new support level. (Forex trader mantra #4, bull market = resistance becomes support, bear market = support becomes resistance).

So then, what we are now looking for is a retracement to generate a buy opportunity (Forex trader mantra #1, Don't fight the trend). When I'm looking to buy, other than a retracement to the former resistance point, I also want to see on the chart a point at which at least 2 key ema's converge, either on the same time frame or on different time frames.

We have such a confluence set-up occuring - on the 1H it is the purple 55ema around 1.01820 and the 4H it is the light pink 21ema just under 1.01820 (remembering that this is also likely to be our new "resistance becomes support" level).

Given the intervention occuring in UJ (and what would otherwise normally be heavy carry trade traffic), it may be that market will simply bypass and/or ignore the interference on UJ and do whatever it pleases with AU regardless.

I'm really not expecting AU to have any signficant south traffic until we get to the "sell in May go away" situation for US equities.

All cautions on board and good trading to us all.
Attached Images
  • #239
  • Mar 26, 2011 7:46pm Mar 26, 2011 7:46pm
Quoting Jade Gate
For info, I received an email from Twee (the guy who runs Forex Factory) this weekend requesting to change the name of this thread to differentiate it from the other AUD thread. FF would normally merge one thread with the other, but Twee seems to like the "no BS" approach of this thread and wants to retain it as a separate thread.

This thread's name will change from AUDUSD to "AUDUSD for informed traders" (Twee's suggestion) - likely to occur at some point next week.

I'll post a chart and some commentary later today.
If that is you in picture it's nice to have a lady trader around, hopefully there's more.
This thread is going well, a rename will be a good thing to distinguish it from the other.
Biggest joker
  • #240
  • Mar 26, 2011 8:08pm Mar 26, 2011 8:08pm
Quoting baron193
If that is you in picture it's nice to have a lady trader around, hopefully there's more.
This thread is going well, a rename will be a good thing to distinguish it from the other.
Yup, that's me. Pic is up on a trial basis. It does help sometimes to see the actual person making commentary.

There are many other female traders, though they sometimes prefer to stay hidden or not disclose gender because of the unwanted/unprofessional attention they receive.

I hope that other quality traders will continue to post to this thread. For some reason, just can't bring myself to post in the other one. Maybe it is the lunatic lurkers who cannot control the abuse impulse. At least here, I can keep the rabble element out and ensure some quality input from experienced and knowledgeable traders who actually know what they are talking about and/or those who have the maturity to engage in a civlised exchange of ideas and thoughts.

Questions from newbies are also welcome here. Don't be afraid to ask the "dumb" questions. It's most likely that 60% of everyone else is wondering the same thing but too afraid to ask (no-one likes to look like the new kid on the block, but reality is, this market is very complex and there are a thousand questions, none of them silly). If I am not about to answer, am sure some of the senior others who post here will be able to.
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