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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #23,661
  • Mar 25, 2011 3:15am Mar 25, 2011 3:15am
Morning Friends,

in the past few month my interest in performance measurement was growing. And I have to say, there are a lot of helpful statistics, that show you very clear, if you are really a consistant successful trader and were you should invest some time for improvement.

Yesterday I stumbled over the "Sortino Ratio", it's an adapted form of "Sharp Ratio", which takes only the Standard Deviation for the "bad volatility" in your results into account. (See here).

Trying to become "interesting" for professional trading institutions has shown me, that making profits is not enough for becoming a pro. You have to to it inside strict risk parameters, with your allowed money lines and in a very constant way. So I started to do some statistical calculations on my trading results. And I'm sure - you know it already - my results are ok, but far away from being constant in a professional sense ....

Create an Excel sheet (or what ever) and fill in your trading results day by day. Calculate the your max DD, your Risk-adjusted Performance, Sortino Ratio, or what ever. Set your max DD in relation to your average daily profit. Build the relation between invested money (Risk) to earned profits and so on ...

I can only give this recommendation to you, because it shows you your real trading skills very honest (without cosmetics and self-deception).

All the best,
Niels
  • #23,662
  • Mar 25, 2011 4:02am Mar 25, 2011 4:02am
Interesting stuff mamood. I worry about calculating performance stats and consistency. Rigid alarm goes off for me, analysis is one of my scorpions I have yet to keep caged.
  • #23,663
  • Mar 25, 2011 4:46am Mar 25, 2011 4:46am
Quoting MaMood
Morning Friends,

in the past few month my interest in performance measurement was growing. And I have to say, there are a lot of helpful statistics, that show you very clear, if you are really a consistant successful trader and were you should invest some time for improvement.

Yesterday I stumbled over the "Sortino Ratio", it's an adapted form of "Sharp Ratio", which takes only the Standard Deviation for the "bad volatility" in your results into account. (See here).

Trying...
Thanks for the recommendation Niels! Since the market just died, I'm reading this stuff atm.
  • #23,664
  • Mar 25, 2011 4:48am Mar 25, 2011 4:48am
Quoting fti

there is no process. You want it ,you finish your acedemics and...
Hi fti!

Always enjoy reading your post
  • #23,665
  • Mar 25, 2011 5:58am Mar 25, 2011 5:58am
Quoting fullperson
Thank you for the advice guys. Like mentioned, dealers are on the edge, so I want to be very professional when I knock aggressively on these banks.

Is calling a treasury like calling any other business? (I have not called a bank treasury before). Which treasury member to speak to (a senior dealer? HR?), what to say besides being interested to catch their attention, best time to call (after hours when business slows)?

I plan on doing this kind of networking over my summer vacation, so this info is good for me to know.

Meanwhile, I intend...
Attached Image
  • #23,666
  • Edited 6:45am Mar 25, 2011 6:17am | Edited 6:45am
Quoting MaMood
Morning Friends,

in the past few month my interest in performance measurement was growing. And I have to say, there are a lot of helpful statistics, that show you very clear, if you are really a consistant successful trader and were you should invest some time for improvement.

Yesterday I stumbled over the "Sortino Ratio", it's an adapted form of "Sharp Ratio", which takes only the Standard Deviation for the "bad volatility" in your results into account. (See here)....
, my friend, beware some people you speak to, who have no dealing experience. aka wanabes
Can destroy your MO in a jiffy. You are sure you speaking to experienced treasury men? It importantyou speaking with the right people. Ask to see their book performance.

When i marry,she must be,

woman..loving...finacially...independent...attractive....have huge assets on her............................................

further more ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

perfection is God's work, all a trader can aspire to is excellence.
愛便,愛凊,加愛大圜嬭

regards
  • #23,667
  • Mar 25, 2011 6:57am Mar 25, 2011 6:57am
Japan nuclear blast: Plant situation 'unpredictable'

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...ow/7787167.cms

some ego erodes.
now, maybe we can move ahead.

regards
  • #23,668
  • Edited 7:14am Mar 25, 2011 7:01am | Edited 7:14am
For whatever its worth.
Here is a wise man.
"Life's about planting trees for others."

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...ow/7778132.cms

then there are the ones comes in their helicopter(used to be high horses) and uses up all the trees and now pointing at saplings.

@ mamood, beware the people you dealing with? maybe same breed?
  • #23,669
  • Mar 25, 2011 7:02am Mar 25, 2011 7:02am
Hello,

I'm sorry if I'm out of topic. Can someone here teach me how to interpret finance news, especially those in the home page of this site.

I've checked in my MT4, which connect to my broker server that use GMT+1 timezone. March 25 2011, 10 o'clock. EUR dropped from 1.41839 to 1.41473 (approximately).

So then I check the news here at forexfactory.com. I expect to see some "bad" news related to EUR, I expect to see minus percentage on actual, forecast and previous, because EUR is weaken against USD. But most of the news related to EUR at 9-11 o'clock (also in GMT+1 timezone) gives good news, the forecast are all positive.

So, I think that there's something wrong in the way I interpret the news or this is just an exception where market goes against the news...


I'd would be thankful if someone could help me understand the news.

Thank you!
  • #23,670
  • Mar 25, 2011 7:37am Mar 25, 2011 7:37am
Quoting thesti
Hello,

I'm sorry if I'm out of topic. Can someone here teach me how to...
My "outdated" views ...
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  • #23,671
  • Mar 25, 2011 7:50am Mar 25, 2011 7:50am
Quoting fti
, my friend, beware some people you speak to, who have no dealing experience. aka wanabes
Can destroy your MO in a jiffy. You are sure you speaking to experienced treasury men? It importantyou speaking with the right people. Ask to see their book performance.

When i marry,she must be,

woman..loving...finacially...independent...attractive....have huge assets on her............................................

further more ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Hi fti,

thanx for your comments.

Unfortunately I'm not sure, to whom I'm speaking there.
But have no choice atm.

I know that I'm talking to lower charges atm, close to treasury but not inside. They are responsible for "recruitement of talented traders".

After my "certification" I'll be transferred to the treasury people directly.
I want to make my first steps into that business. So I'll pay atention to their requirements, but I'm alerted (according to your warinings).
Will give it a try ...

And of course I know: My only asset is your teachings.
So I'll defend it against bad influences. If they want to change that MO, game is over for me.

Trying to get some more opportunities up and running atm ...

All the best,
Niels
  • #23,672
  • Edited 8:12am Mar 25, 2011 7:57am | Edited 8:12am
afternoon fti sir!
regarding the risk parameters MaMood is talking about, i am trying to find my pain threshhold atm. and based on daily ROI, how many days will it be bofore i can recover my book? and by your experience, sir, how often do pros encounter these bad days?
care to shed some light on this subject?
if this has been given somewhere on the thread or it should be sth we find out by ourselves, just ignore my question.
and "愛便,愛凊,加愛大圜嬭" , i looked up the dictionary to get what you mean. don't konw if it's right. guess it's the language overseas people from fuzhou used in SG. last summer i visited ShangHai expo, and i saw some info there about this group.
regards
  • #23,673
  • Edited 8:12am Mar 25, 2011 7:59am | Edited 8:12am
Quoting fullperson
Hi fti, I heard from previous sales trader that starting off as an analyst with CPA will help you get into trading (working your way up). But I am wondering what the process for employment as a dealer is?
Hi fullperson

First you "make your garden" ... you garden it's nice ... why, then, multiple stress for "foreign money"?

PS My personal experience:
I had a "mess in the garden" and ... I still trained but the Scorpion(greed + fear)(big stres, Personal experience is not communicable) to kill me ... talk to oneself, please.

Rgs
  • #23,674
  • Mar 25, 2011 8:21am Mar 25, 2011 8:21am
Quoting MaMood
Morning Friends,

in the past few month my interest in performance measurement was growing. And I have to say, there are a lot of helpful statistics, that show you very clear, if you are really a consistant successful trader and were you should invest some time for improvement.

Yesterday I stumbled over the "Sortino Ratio", it's an adapted form of "Sharp Ratio", which takes only the Standard Deviation for the "bad volatility" in your results into account. (See here).

Trying...

hi MaMood,
thx for your good will!
regards
  • #23,675
  • Mar 25, 2011 9:45am Mar 25, 2011 9:45am
Quoting thesti
Hello,

I'm sorry if I'm out of topic. Can someone here teach me how to interpret finance news, especially those in the home page of this site.

I've checked in my MT4, which connect to my broker server that use GMT+1 timezone. March 25 2011, 10 o'clock. EUR dropped from 1.41839 to 1.41473 (approximately).

So then I check the news here at forexfactory.com. I expect to see some "bad" news related to EUR, I expect to see minus percentage on actual, forecast and previous, because EUR is weaken against USD. But most of the news related to EUR...
Hi Thesti,

Below is not a direct answer to your question about understanding news but it is related:

Read this thread (and similar ones in the FF forum) about market structure and marketmakers mode.

This pdf has some good explanations of how even quite small order, passive herding and margin calls can trigger price avalanche and nobody can predict when it will happen or how far it will go.
http://www.olsenblog.com/wp-content/..._Trade_5.2.pdf

Regards,
Baifu
  • #23,676
  • Mar 25, 2011 10:15am Mar 25, 2011 10:15am
Quoting Gro
Hi fullperson

First you "make your garden" ... you garden it's nice ... why, then, multiple stress for "foreign money"?

PS My personal experience:
I had a "mess in the garden" and ... I still trained but the Scorpion(greed + fear)(big stres, Personal experience is not communicable) to kill me ... talk to oneself, please.

Rgs
Gro,

You know it needs some person with wisdom (person gone throguh some struggle) to subtly understand what u r trying to say....

V

PS: Deep meaning BTW what i understood
  • #23,677
  • Mar 25, 2011 11:30am Mar 25, 2011 11:30am
Quoting indianguyinny24
Gro,

You know it needs some person with wisdom (person gone throguh some struggle) to subtly understand what u r trying to say....

V

PS: Deep meaning BTW what i understood
I wrote a "personal experience is not transferable" ... I understand well?

I know that unnecessary advice ... but I can see, fana, fullperson etc. They are "very zeal" ("scorpion wants to cross the river ...")
"youth to go fast forward and old rescue the rest"
  • #23,678
  • Mar 25, 2011 11:34am Mar 25, 2011 11:34am
Hi Friends,

patience pays off: The reward a strong straight move down with lots of pips :-)

We should not forget, that we have the great luxury to trade only, when the market (the chart) is right. Very different from that guys in the banks: They have to service their big customers and make the markets for them ...

Wish you all a great and relaxing weekend!

CU,
Niels
  • #23,679
  • Mar 25, 2011 11:55am Mar 25, 2011 11:55am
Quoting MaMood
Hi Friends,

patience pays off: The reward a strong straight move down with lots of pips :-)

We should not forget, that we have the great luxury to trade only, when the market (the chart) is right. Very different from that guys in the banks: They have to service their big customers and make the markets for them ...

Wish you all a great and relaxing weekend!

CU,
Niels

hi MaMood,
see you next week!
regards
  • #23,680
  • Mar 25, 2011 11:56am Mar 25, 2011 11:56am
THE DALAI LAMA, WHEN ASKED WHAT SURPRISED HIM MOST ABOUT HUMANITY, HE SAID:

“man.
because he sacrifices his health in order to make money.
then he sacrifices money to recuperate his health.
and then he is so anxious about the future that he does not enjoy the present;
the result being that he does not live in the present or the future;
he lives as if he is never going to die, and then dies having never really lived.”

I know what's in store for me if I keep up my zeal. I am the type to work very hard. I can't help it. I am young and it is my nature to be very zeal. I am very interested in the learning and the process for mindset. Foreign cap is only the bonus.



Quoting indianguyinny24
Gro,

You know it needs some person with wisdom (person gone throguh some struggle) to subtly understand what u r trying to say....

V

PS: Deep meaning BTW what i understood
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