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  • #1,061
  • Mar 25, 2011 7:41am Mar 25, 2011 7:41am
Quoting dragan53
the application?
no... the application... lol

nevermind, was a joke.

It sounds like a conspiracy.
  • #1,062
  • Mar 25, 2011 7:45am Mar 25, 2011 7:45am
Quoting Monroe
no... the application... lol

nevermind, was a joke.

It sounds like a conspiracy.
saying that dealers control the market and that they stop hunt is a conspiracy too



Inserted Video
  • #1,063
  • Mar 25, 2011 7:48am Mar 25, 2011 7:48am
I'm not sure what you're implying there man. I know stop hunting exists, who is it that you think controls the market? dealers? or the BIS and central banks? or george soros? lol
  • #1,064
  • Mar 25, 2011 7:57am Mar 25, 2011 7:57am
Quoting Monroe
I'm not sure what you're implying there man. I know stop hunting exists, who is it that you think controls the market? dealers? or the BIS and central banks? or george soros? lol
depends when

in news times,the speculators (major instituions,dealers)
in illiquid times the dealers for sure

in news times,evryone expects the same thing,so its harder for the dealers,to stop hunt,as theyll get stop hunted, if they against the market

like i said soros already controls his puppet men at central banks and bis
their decisions are already decided at the bilderberg group ,council of foreign relations,trilateral commission,royal institute,the club of rome and all those globalist meetings
  • #1,065
  • Mar 25, 2011 8:13am Mar 25, 2011 8:13am
Quoting dragan53
depends when

in news times,the speculators (major instituions,dealers)
in illiquid times the dealers for sure

in news times,evryone expects the same thing,so its harder for the dealers,to stop hunt,as theyll get stop hunted, if they against the market

like i said soros already controls his puppet men at central banks and bis
their decisions are already decided at the bilderberg group ,council of foreign relations,trilateral commission,royal institute,the club of rome and all those globalist meetings
Before and after news are illiquid times, as well as later ny-asia. Thats when dealers can hit stops easily.

Hedge funds and the like can also hit stops, anyone with the money to move the market can do so.

About the bilderbergs and the conspiracies, I don't have much to say on that man.

If anything, I would think the FED and CB's and banks run the show, but banks, real money and strong institutional specs like hedge funds are strong during your day to day moves.
  • #1,066
  • Mar 25, 2011 8:29am Mar 25, 2011 8:29am
Quoting Monroe
Before and after news are illiquid times, as well as later ny-asia. Thats when dealers can hit stops easily.

Hedge funds and the like can also hit stops, anyone with the money to move the market can do so.

About the bilderbergs and the conspiracies, I don't have much to say on that man.

If anything, I would think the FED and CB's and banks run the show, but banks, real money and strong institutional specs like hedge funds are strong during your day to day moves.
remember when ny was on holiday,couple of months ago,last year it think
they got stophunted in auckland sydney badly
thats embarrasing to get stophunted by a turtle moving sydney

and then asia opened
ching chong ching
more yen in the bank

have u read mark shwarzers pitbull,
remember when george soros tried to load off sp500 contracts and no one wanted to buy them at the pits,the price plummeted ,they bought it at the lows,sold at highs

man,thats some liqidity,if there was a big cascade of stops,he could have unloaded the contracts much easier

but in that market then,still hard to do
  • #1,067
  • Mar 25, 2011 8:34am Mar 25, 2011 8:34am
Quoting dragan53
remember when ny was on holiday,couple of months ago,last year it think
they got stophunted in auckland sydney badly
thats embarrasing to get stophunted by a turtle moving sydney

and then asia opened
ching chong ching
more yen in the bank

have u read mark shwarzers pitbull,
remember when george soros tried to load off sp500 contracts and no one wanted to buy them at the pits,the price plummeted ,they bought it at the lows,sold at highs

man,thats some liqidity,if there was a big cascade of stops,he could have unloaded the contracts...
lol they always stop hunt during the twilight zone from what i know.

funny you asked about that book cause i just got it last night... only read a bit of it. Any book written by a trader who actually made millions trading has to be worth a read.
  • #1,068
  • Mar 25, 2011 8:44am Mar 25, 2011 8:44am
Quoting Monroe
lol they always stop hunt during the twilight zone from what i know.

funny you asked about that book cause i just got it last night... only read a bit of it. Any book written by a trader who actually made millions trading has to be worth a read.
ye those thirsty vampires,

get ready for a lenghty read
i finished the book in 4 days,its really addictive,4th day i read 160 pages

good luck
  • #1,069
  • Mar 25, 2011 9:02am Mar 25, 2011 9:02am
ohhh Dragan you and your conspiracy theories................

lol
.
  • #1,070
  • Mar 25, 2011 11:10am Mar 25, 2011 11:10am
I'm aware that the constant talk about exotic options annoys some of you, but I just wanted to point out that it looks like the AUD/USD is trying to take out 1.0300 (there is rumored to be an exotic option tied to that level).
  • #1,071
  • Mar 25, 2011 11:46am Mar 25, 2011 11:46am
Quoting relyt
I'm aware that the constant talk about exotic options annoys some of you, but I just wanted to point out that it looks like the AUD/USD is trying to take out 1.0300 (there is rumored to be an exotic option tied to that level).

Well that was disappointing. Up until 12:15 it didn't look much different from Darkstar's example (here), but then it just crashed at 12:15.

I'm still not sure where I'm going wrong.
  • #1,072
  • Mar 25, 2011 1:32pm Mar 25, 2011 1:32pm
Quoting relyt
Well that was disappointing. Up until 12:15 it didn't look much different from Darkstar's example (here), but then it just crashed at 12:15.

I'm still not sure where I'm going wrong.
It is different. Think about expiry. Plus hunters would not be able to resist that dollar buying due to the fed hawkinsh commentary.
  • #1,073
  • Mar 25, 2011 2:20pm Mar 25, 2011 2:20pm
Quoting relyt
Well that was disappointing. Up until 12:15 it didn't look much different from Darkstar's example (here), but then it just crashed at 12:15.

I'm still not sure where I'm going wrong.
How did you know it was there? At least, now you saw the offers and it's confirmed. It was late in the day on friday, timing is important. Now you got options and tech stops... had a double top on m15 and now looks to be forming a head a shoulders.

You'll get the pullback, take out some trend trader stops and persuade some more shorts, I'll watch this one early next week. I'll wait till the market get's caught short.... easy kill. Be a hunter....
  • #1,074
  • Mar 25, 2011 2:33pm Mar 25, 2011 2:33pm
Quoting Monroe
How did you know it was there?
Saw the first rumor here: http://www.forexlive.com/175931/all/...od-aussie-down

Then about a half hour later it got rejected at 1.0292 or so, then saw this: http://www.forexlive.com/175936/all/...2-before-stall

Then it got rejected again at the same spot, and I was pretty convinced that it's true. Now it's just a matter of deciding when to enter.
  • #1,075
  • Mar 25, 2011 2:45pm Mar 25, 2011 2:45pm
Quoting relyt
Saw the first rumor here: http://www.forexlive.com/175931/all/...od-aussie-down

Then about a half hour later it got rejected at 1.0292 or so, then saw this: http://www.forexlive.com/175936/all/...2-before-stall

Then it got rejected again at the same spot, and I was pretty convinced that it's true. Now it's just a matter of deciding when to enter.
yea, that's not what I meant, I know about the rumors. But obviously it was not easy to break. i'll watch how it plays out. I'll also think about fading this up at the 0350 maybe, but this gives a good opportunity for a better entry to put more cash in the pocket.
  • #1,076
  • Mar 25, 2011 2:47pm Mar 25, 2011 2:47pm
Quoting Monroe
yea, that's not what I meant, I know about the rumors, i'll watch how it plays out. I'll also think about fading this up at the 0350 maybe
Sorry, I must have misunderstood. When you asked "How did you know it was there?" I thought you were asking me how I knew it was there.
  • #1,077
  • Mar 25, 2011 2:49pm Mar 25, 2011 2:49pm
Quoting relyt
Sorry, I must have misunderstood. When you asked "How did you know it was there?" I thought you were asking me how I knew it was there.
Well yea, we all know why you thought it was there. Rumors... but thats just what they are until proven otherwise right? Now you saw the defense.

DS talked about watching for clues that people are in fact hunting... so thats something to watch out for next week.
  • #1,078
  • Mar 25, 2011 2:53pm Mar 25, 2011 2:53pm
Quoting Monroe
Well yea, we all know how you thought it was there. Rumors... but thats just what they are until proven otherwise right? Now you saw the defense.
Oh, ok. Yeah, the combination of the rumors and the rejections is how I knew it was there.

Quoting Monroe
DS talked about watching for clues that people are in fact hunting... so thats something to watch out for next week.
Yes. The only clues I know to look for are what he cited in that example he gave. Common technical patterns: higher highs/lows, pinbar, etc. Other than that, is there anything else you would suggest looking for?
  • #1,079
  • Mar 25, 2011 2:58pm Mar 25, 2011 2:58pm
Quoting relyt
Oh, ok. Yeah, the combination of the rumors and the rejections is how I knew it was there.



Yes. The only clues I know to look for are what he cited in that example he gave. Common technical patterns: higher highs/lows, pinbar, etc. Other than that, is there anything else you would suggest looking for?
In his example he is obviously using his knowledge of micro-structure to look for clues, after that he was watching how they would work it and what would entice other traders to place orders to help them. They did this all during illiquid times (when it's easier to move price around) so this is all something to keep in mind.
  • #1,080
  • Mar 25, 2011 3:16pm Mar 25, 2011 3:16pm
Quoting Monroe
Hey Louie, here is something to think about with the crosses...

This is from ForexLive:
http://www.forexlive.com/175638/all/...eyed-this-week


also I think watching say EU, UJ, and EJ for euro strength, or EU, GU, and EG to see which may be a better play against the dollar?

So overall I think you can watch the crosses to see which pairs the market is paying attention to perhaps, gain insight into the strong/weak currencies.
Hmmm Interesting,

19% of Australia's exports go to Japan ( which includes 30% of cocking and 50% of thermal coal of total coal exports). Trade balance between these two is 62 Bln increased from 55 Bln from previous year.
Going forward rebuilding in Japan will magnify the exports in Australia such as Iron ore and Coal. Also rebuilding in Australia itself due to recent floods will pave the way for a RATE HIKE from RBA. So in longterm (3 months- 1 year) AUD will be in a strong bullish trend.

But i think this scenario may start to get "price in" after Japan finally could come up with and decide the terms of rebuilding i.e how they will fund the cost of it etc which offcourse may take some weeks or even months.

Now looking at the current move in AudUsd starting from 17 March is not a move that has occurred due to the scenario i mentioned above ( for the reason i just stated above). Also the reason i believe it not to be is that longterm fundamental moves are not as sharp as the one in AudUsd we are witnessing at the moment, Longterm fundamental moves are very slow in nature and with a lot of correction after every thrust in trend direction.

So if i am right here than it means the move in AU is only driven by M&A deal. Also looking at other USD pairs USD has been stronger due to specific reasons to each of those pairs but we can see the strength in AU.

Now as the deal will close on 1 April. After the deal is closed there is no reason left that justifies the current high price of AU (to me) looking at how other pairs are performing against USD.

Actually after that it will have to tackle with,.... some profit taking+ USD strength cause of Fed's hinting the end of QE2 + a possibility rate cut from RBA on 5th April (i heard 36% chances of it) .

So we have two trading scenarios in on our hands here first one to look for a short at current high prices and than back long in anticipation of Japan rebuilding Scenario.

How does that smell.
.
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