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vsa with Malcolm

  • #17,161
  • Mar 23, 2011 10:18pm Mar 23, 2011 10:18pm
Quoting ivonivon
did you check the 4hr chart? it's just two bars next to the failed test.
sl should be large enough to sustain the up thrust.
It seems that those upthrust are testing low volume on the previous retracement. Don't you think it will be more reasonable if it goes down to test 1.39956 for an upthrust? I don't know, but something is telling me that is a false upthrust? I could be wrong... I am still holding a small short for a scalp. My aim is to close at 1.3930-1.3945 area, and watch from there...
  • #17,162
  • Mar 23, 2011 10:22pm Mar 23, 2011 10:22pm
Hello Freinds: My short sell open transaction got stopped out for a scratch. EU rolled over after a failed test and lack of buying pressure into stopping volume enough for a reaction weak rally. I got lucky when I loaded the account just before the weak close low buying pressure (possible ND) bar at the reaction top. I erred by setting the stop to break even instead of using a trailing stop. Oh well. Its better to have a scratch than a loss. All the Best.
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  • #17,163
  • Mar 23, 2011 10:57pm Mar 23, 2011 10:57pm
Quoting PipPipPip
I am still holding a small short for a scalp. My aim is to close at 1.3930-1.3945 area, and watch from there...
closing shorts early. 35+ pips. free pips to all. Watching a new low to enter long. Currently have 1.39880 order open.

be back for LO.
  • #17,164
  • Mar 23, 2011 11:00pm Mar 23, 2011 11:00pm
Quoting ivonivon
daily chart hold potential bearish.
if it's a wide spread down pushing through support i'm expecting it to get to 3800 area.
btw, like i said, that support was way weak. I hope it breaks through fast enough so it can trigger my orders...
  • #17,165
  • Mar 23, 2011 11:10pm Mar 23, 2011 11:10pm
Quoting ivonivon
daily chart hold potential bearish.
if it's a wide spread down pushing through support i'm expecting it to get to 3800 area.
Expectations cloud your trading senses. Trade what you see not what you expect.
  • #17,166
  • Mar 24, 2011 1:16am Mar 24, 2011 1:16am
guys look at the volume of last 1hr up bar..its too low.lower then last last 5 & also the spread is narrow..there is no bull pressure..
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  • #17,167
  • Mar 24, 2011 1:33am Mar 24, 2011 1:33am
Quoting Sonofsin5
Expectations cloud your trading senses. Trade what you see not what you expect.
Indeed. Hope and anticipation makes for a high risk trading strategy. I am rusty, but I'll stick with VSA. I am a dusty old man, what do I know....
  • #17,168
  • Mar 24, 2011 3:30am Mar 24, 2011 3:30am
Anyone watching eu? Currently in trigger area, keep a watch out
  • #17,169
  • Mar 24, 2011 3:55am Mar 24, 2011 3:55am
Cable 5min looking interesting;
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  • #17,170
  • Mar 24, 2011 4:11am Mar 24, 2011 4:11am
EU 5min, a very fast NS take off. Set up a buy limit which got triggered on the next NS test. Narrow bar. Turned out to be a good one.
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  • #17,171
  • Mar 24, 2011 4:27am Mar 24, 2011 4:27am
Quoting FrankSA
EU 5min, a very fast NS take off. Set up a buy limit which got triggered on the next NS test. Narrow bar. Turned out to be a good one.
I bought this aswell, got shaken out though since i put my stop under the ns rather than the swing low.
  • #17,172
  • Mar 24, 2011 4:46am Mar 24, 2011 4:46am
EU 5 min. Looked like strength on the 2 bar reversal was tested. Vol. not too exciting but acceptable. The Buy stop was triggered. Lets see what Mr Market does with this...
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  • #17,173
  • Mar 24, 2011 4:51am Mar 24, 2011 4:51am
Quoting NaughtyPip
I bought this aswell, got shaken out though since i put my stop under the ns rather than the swing low.
NP, I am always suspicious of a single test fast take off. Give it a lot of latitude on the next test.
  • #17,174
  • Mar 24, 2011 5:09am Mar 24, 2011 5:09am
Quoting ewokuk
looking for possible long from 4050 tomorrow but we shall see.
that worked ok, long 4055, just closed 4120 below the pivot. im looking for possible sells around 4150 now. or a break and test of 4150 for long back above 4200.
  • #17,175
  • Mar 24, 2011 5:10am Mar 24, 2011 5:10am
Can someone tell me is it strength or weakness when we have an upbar, higher volume but narrower spread than previous and closing on its high? I thought it was selling into buying (weakness). Is that right?

Thanks for your help.
Ox
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  • #17,176
  • Mar 24, 2011 5:18am Mar 24, 2011 5:18am
Quoting Oxford
Can someone tell me is it strength or weakness when we have an upbar, higher volume but narrower spread than previous and closing on its high? I thought it was selling into buying (weakness). Is that right?

Thanks for your help.
Ox
i believe it is certainly potential weakness, definite selling or the volumewouldnt be that high for the smaller spread, but with strength in background there is a reasonable chance it will get absorbed and still go higher. i would say if it closes on its high thats a first clue that any selling may be getting absorbed. next bar needs to be down to confirm any weakness, and it wasnt.
  • #17,177
  • Mar 24, 2011 5:37am Mar 24, 2011 5:37am
thank you!

Quoting ewokuk
i believe it is certainly potential weakness, definite selling or the volumewouldnt be that high for the smaller spread, but with strength in background there is a reasonable chance it will get absorbed and still go higher. i would say if it closes on its high thats a first clue that any selling may be getting absorbed. next bar needs to be down to confirm any weakness, and it wasnt.
  • #17,178
  • Edited 6:34am Mar 24, 2011 6:11am | Edited 6:34am
Quoting Oxford
Can someone tell me is it strength or weakness when we have an upbar, higher volume but narrower spread than previous and closing on its high? I thought it was selling into buying (weakness). Is that right?

Thanks for your help.
Ox
This is a squat bar... Higher volume and narrower spread than the previous up bar. Not true VSA but an add on that many use. They can often (but not always) represent a forcoming trend reversal. It shows that supply is possibly overcoming demand (in this case).

Edit... it appears that it could have been absroption as we are down seeing damand trying to take back over after a brief pause. The low of the squat was never taken out...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #17,179
  • Edited 6:58am Mar 24, 2011 6:30am | Edited 6:58am
So today was a nice example of a discussion there was on here about trading EU and GU out of unison... Today the trades were long EU and short GU as the pairs moved completly out of sync.

Oil and ES both match up with EU as is quite often expected... I assume that the news about the possible GBP stock market crash is what's keeping GU down today but not really sure.

Edit... oh and I see there was an MPC speech that sounded somewhat dovish and a high impact news that printed worse than expected...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #17,180
  • Mar 24, 2011 7:00am Mar 24, 2011 7:00am
15 min EU is starting look weak... wider spread upbar on almost no volume follow by two UT bars with the same close. Second one on less volume and less spread. Could see a drop (or at least a retrace from here) into the 4100 zone if the UT's are not immediatley tested and taken out. There is still room in the ADR for more upside... let's see if this is weakness or simply testing for supply above.

Edit... and as quickly as I can write it they are testing the UT wicks...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
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