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vsa with Malcolm

  • #17,121
  • Mar 23, 2011 10:30am Mar 23, 2011 10:30am
Quoting NaughtyPip
Which time frame are you trading? We have been in a down trend for past 2 days, so if you are trading 5 or 15 min charts like me, bias is down. Although i did take a long before, but that was me being undisciplined.
If you are trading intra day off 5 and 15min charts then one should be able to safely trade set-ups for long and shorts even if the overall trend is up or down. The only thing I keep longer term bias for is if I am taking a trade and deciding whether to hold it longer. Not very often even on a down day that we go straight down so if the VSA set-up is there to go long and grab a nice trade why let the longer term trend stop you. Get in and out when you see the SOS followed by SOW or vise versa.

Also yesterday was a downbar yes but the POC printed higher (4212) than the day previous (4168) so technically today is the first down day based on volume. Also today's developing POC is above the one from two days ago... Not really in a downtrend yet.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #17,122
  • Mar 23, 2011 10:36am Mar 23, 2011 10:36am
Agree.

Today is a tough day for me. When looking small timeframe, I am allured to buy bottom seeing increased volume on down bars. In fact, when looking bigger timeframe, it is definitly down trend. Therefore the best trading strategy today should have been waiting for small timeframe up-thrust or no demand in down trend.


Quoting Yaad
That's the other thing I'm finding, watching multiple timeframes only make the charts more confusing for me. Some nice easy shorts today, but I stayed out due to watching PA on larger timeframes, when the 5min was saying "trade me please."
  • #17,123
  • Mar 23, 2011 10:38am Mar 23, 2011 10:38am
Quoting tonirai
The discussion and following voting that will lead to the Portuguese government stepping down has just started... think it will last some hours, but I'm curious to see Euro's reaction to it.

I still hold a short EU from this morning, waiting for it to test recent lows above 1.41, or for a possible break, before closing.
Yes i'm well aware of this. The move is going to have a large impact on the euro and do not be surprised to see a zig-zag price move to take out stops in either direction before the overall direction is established.

I personally would not be trading the euro right now.
  • #17,124
  • Mar 23, 2011 10:38am Mar 23, 2011 10:38am
I went short very risky I know at 45 got 10 pips. the rest to BE.... see what happens :-D
  • #17,125
  • Mar 23, 2011 10:46am Mar 23, 2011 10:46am
Quoting Sonofsin5
I personally would not be trading the euro right now.
Agreed, it's not the moment for it.

In my case, wasn't able to follow the trade during the day, and if failed to reach my profit by 10 pips - when I came back, it already was up 40 pips from the lows.
Just waiting for a better exit point, which looks like might be coming right now.
  • #17,126
  • Mar 23, 2011 10:50am Mar 23, 2011 10:50am
Quoting pres78
If you are trading intra day off 5 and 15min charts then one should be able to safely trade set-ups for long and shorts even if the overall trend is up or down. The only thing I keep longer term bias for is if I am taking a trade and deciding whether to hold it longer. Not very often even on a down day that we go straight down so if the VSA set-up is there to go long and grab a nice trade why let the longer term trend stop you. Get in and out when you see the SOS followed by SOW or vise versa.

Also yesterday was a downbar yes but the POC printed...
I am a little confused as to looking at triggers for shorts, I can def see the longs but have trouble with the shorts. pres78 when you look for a test for a short are you comparing the volume of the no demand bar to the trigger vol or the previous two bar vols and it so happens to match up to the trigger level as well. Would you take a short after an upthrust bar into a trigger?
  • #17,127
  • Mar 23, 2011 10:54am Mar 23, 2011 10:54am
Quoting polomine
Agree.

Today is a tough day for me. When looking small timeframe, I am allured to buy bottom seeing increased volume on down bars. In fact, when looking bigger timeframe, it is definitly down trend. Therefore the best trading strategy today should have been waiting for small timeframe up-thrust or no demand in down trend.
That's right, and there were 2-3 nice trades based just on that principle, but I decided not to trade them because I was expecting a move upwards.

Really makes me grind my teeth!
  • #17,128
  • Mar 23, 2011 10:56am Mar 23, 2011 10:56am
USD news in 4 mins. IM open at BE+5.... Hopefully he drops it down... lets see
  • #17,129
  • Mar 23, 2011 11:00am Mar 23, 2011 11:00am
Quoting inks2002
I am a little confused as to looking at triggers for shorts, I can def see the longs but have trouble with the shorts. pres78 when you look for a test for a short are you comparing the volume of the no demand bar to the trigger vol or the previous two bar vols and it so happens to match up to the trigger level as well. Would you take a short after an upthrust bar into a trigger?
For shorts I would like for one of the following into the trigger level.

1. low volume upthrust (test) above the trigger but then closing at or below. For this I would like the volume to be lower than the trigegr bar but best is lower than the trigger and the previous 2 bars.
2. high volume upthrust above trigger and close at or below. For this one though I would want further confirmation since high volume upthrusts can often be tested and end up not being a SOW. Many times a high volume upthrust will end up creating a new trigger... This one would be my least prefered...
3. ND that touches the trigger and either closes on or below the trigger. Many times you will see the high of the ND touch the trigger and then retreats down to close near the middle.

I showed a nice example of a short off a ND off a trigger earlier today on EU.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #17,130
  • Mar 23, 2011 11:00am Mar 23, 2011 11:00am
Quoting forexcompoun
Okay,
for those that wanna take an inter-mezzo u can bag 50 easy pips at this level then re-enter at 1.4655.
Happy trading!
Meshach
I hurried outta the long. Well fresh short taken at 1.4754
See attached chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpchf_fresh_short.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #17,131
  • Mar 23, 2011 11:10am Mar 23, 2011 11:10am
Quoting tonirai
Agreed, it's not the moment for it.

In my case, wasn't able to follow the trade during the day, and if failed to reach my profit by 10 pips - when I came back, it already was up 40 pips from the lows.
Just waiting for a better exit point, which looks like might be coming right now.
Well, I'm out, closed with trailing stop.
It was a nice single trade day, with a nice +62 pips.

I can now relax (or get nervous), and follow the crisis in my country... and discuss it a bit live, in the national forums.

Good luck to all.
  • #17,132
  • Mar 23, 2011 11:13am Mar 23, 2011 11:13am
Quoting tonirai
Well, I'm out, closed with trailing stop.
It was a nice single trade day, with a nice +62 pips.

I can now relax (or get nervous), and follow the crisis in my country... and discuss it a bit live, in the national forums.

Good luck to all.
No problem Estonia will help euro with 1,3 million euros. This will save it
  • #17,133
  • Mar 23, 2011 11:20am Mar 23, 2011 11:20am
Quoting ozzieb88
USD news in 4 mins. IM open at BE+5.... Hopefully he drops it down... lets see
  • #17,134
  • Mar 23, 2011 11:28am Mar 23, 2011 11:28am
Closed at that stopping volume... 55 total pips off that high volume up bar near Trigger number (no result from effort) short taken...

only 2 trades today those were it. Im happy!
  • #17,135
  • Mar 23, 2011 11:29am Mar 23, 2011 11:29am
Quoting Yaad
Looks like a possible Bernanke SO...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #17,136
  • Mar 23, 2011 11:35am Mar 23, 2011 11:35am
Quoting pres78
Looks like a possible Bernanke SO...
Nice test of that earlier low from this morning also.
  • #17,137
  • Mar 23, 2011 11:37am Mar 23, 2011 11:37am
test at the close on that bar would make a quick long I think... will see
  • #17,138
  • Mar 23, 2011 11:41am Mar 23, 2011 11:41am
Quoting ozzieb88
test at the close on that bar would make a quick long I think... will see
Low volume test.
  • #17,139
  • Mar 23, 2011 11:44am Mar 23, 2011 11:44am
Quoting pres78
If you are trading intra day off 5 and 15min charts then one should be able to safely trade set-ups for long and shorts even if the overall trend is up or down. The only thing I keep longer term bias for is if I am taking a trade and deciding whether to hold it longer. Not very often even on a down day that we go straight down so if the VSA set-up is there to go long and grab a nice trade why let the longer term trend stop you. Get in and out when you see the SOS followed by SOW or vise versa.

Also yesterday was a downbar yes but the POC printed...
What would confirm the downtrend for you?
  • #17,140
  • Mar 23, 2011 11:58am Mar 23, 2011 11:58am
Quoting NaughtyPip
What would confirm the downtrend for you?
Downtrend is such a sticky word. Since we started up from this years low we have only seen retraces of an upmove and never an actual downtrend. Right now we are in another leg up and seeing a retrace... We could go as low as 4060 and this leg would still be well intact. As for an interm downtrend as in a retrace of a few hundred pips I would like to see a couple of days in a row print a lower POC. But as I said uptrend or down I will take valid set-ups in either direction... Long term Trend for me only applies if I think I have gotten a good deal and want to hold longer than intrday (which for now would just be longs until we get into more than a retrace).

15 min trend based on hull is about the most I watch when trading the 5 min.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
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