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Order Flow - Achieving the mindset

  • #1,001
  • Mar 22, 2011 5:02pm Mar 22, 2011 5:02pm
USDTRY has a yield differential right now of 5.35%, If you are leveraged at only 3:1 that becomes 16.05%, 10:1...15:1.... Hmmmm. That also makes it extremely expensive to buy the pair. Get the gist?
  • #1,002
  • Mar 22, 2011 5:06pm Mar 22, 2011 5:06pm
I just got mad one day and decided that if I can't approach the markets with the mind of an investor, then I don't want to trade anymore. I didn't want to game the market anymore, I wanted to trade. Once I began thinking like an investor, I realized what I should have been doing all along.

Just pretend you have a huge pile of money that it's your job to manage, wisely! Who is worthy of using those dollars other than you right now? Who is offering a decent return with the least risk?
  • #1,003
  • Mar 22, 2011 5:06pm Mar 22, 2011 5:06pm
Quoting Scotty B
USDTRY has a yield differential right now of 5.35%, If you are leveraged at only 3:1 that becomes 16.05%, 10:1...15:1.... Hmmmm. That also makes it extremely expensive to buy the pair. Get the gist?
Gotcha.... solid thinking... I'm sold on that one.
  • #1,004
  • Mar 22, 2011 5:13pm Mar 22, 2011 5:13pm
Quoting Scotty B
I just got mad one day and decided that if I can't approach the markets with the mind of an investor, then I don't want to trade anymore. I didn't want to game the market anymore, I wanted to trade. Once I began thinking like an investor, I realized what I should have been doing all along.

Just pretend you have a huge pile of money that it's your job to manage, wisely! Who is worthy of using those dollars other than you right now? Who is offering a decent return with the least risk?
I hear you man, and one day I hope to have that pile of money... thats why we're all in this.
  • #1,005
  • Mar 22, 2011 5:16pm Mar 22, 2011 5:16pm
Quoting Monroe
Gotcha.... solid thinking... I'm sold on that one.
Remember also, at what price will USDTRY stop paying rollover? Do you see why "value" is kind of a fluffy idea? The risk in the pair is that rates will change and investors will pull out quickly. Other risks include governmental interventions. Basically, you want to pay attention to the big picture and have as many factors on your side as possible. Pay attention to news only in the way it effects those factors.
  • #1,006
  • Mar 22, 2011 5:20pm Mar 22, 2011 5:20pm
Quoting Scotty B
Remember also, at what price will USDTRY stop paying rollover? Do you see why "value" is kind of a fluffy idea? The risk in the pair is that rates will change and investors will pull out quickly. Other risks include governmental interventions. Basically, you want to pay attention to the big picture and have as many factors on your side as possible. Pay attention to news only in the way it effects those factors.
Right on, exactly...
  • #1,007
  • Mar 22, 2011 5:24pm Mar 22, 2011 5:24pm
Quoting Scotty B
I'm doing okay for now. I'm working my way into the EURO, and into USDTRY.
Haha! Welcome to the emerging markets, Scotty. w00t!
  • #1,008
  • Mar 22, 2011 5:39pm Mar 22, 2011 5:39pm
Quoting capitalist88
Haha! Welcome to the emerging markets, Scotty. w00t!
lol...thanks man.
  • #1,009
  • Mar 22, 2011 5:52pm Mar 22, 2011 5:52pm
Quoting Scotty B
I just got mad one day and decided that if I can't approach the markets with the mind of an investor, then I don't want to trade anymore. I didn't want to game the market anymore, I wanted to trade. Once I began thinking like an investor, I realized what I should have been doing all along.
Have you looked at the Equity Millipede Thread?

Most of the key info is in the early part of the thread, fairly interesting. I'm working on something else right now, but building the equity millipede is a concept I can see down the line. I'm still trying to build my grubstake and get my psych under control ATM.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #1,010
  • Mar 22, 2011 6:02pm Mar 22, 2011 6:02pm
Quoting LasVahGoose
Have you looked at the Equity Millipede Thread?

Most of the key info is in the early part of the thread, fairly interesting. I'm working on something else right now, but building the equity millipede is a concept I can see down the line. I'm still trying to build my grubstake and get my psych under control ATM.
I've looked at that thread a few times. When it comes to the term "trend" we all get confused. A trend to me is just the effect of traders taking advantage of the incentives the market is offering. If a market is giving decent returns, lot's of traders will want to be part of that market and you'll find yourself with a trend. It's quite simple really.
  • #1,011
  • Mar 22, 2011 6:07pm Mar 22, 2011 6:07pm
Oh...one more thing. The trend will persist as long as the incentives are in place, with the exception of the conditions I mentioned in regards to the AUDUSD. Despite my opinion though, the AUDUSD is offering buyers nice returns. There might just be a big enough group of buyers that the trend is never really effected by profit taking.
  • #1,012
  • Mar 22, 2011 6:45pm Mar 22, 2011 6:45pm
Quoting Scotty B
Oh...one more thing. The trend will persist as long as the incentives are in place, with the exception of the conditions I mentioned in regards to the AUDUSD. Despite my opinion though, the AUDUSD is offering buyers nice returns. There might just be a big enough group of buyers that the trend is never really effected by profit taking.
This post squared my focus again. I feel I have been off on several different tangents the last month or so, but really, what it comes down to is what incentives entices money to flow in and what disincentives force money to flow out. I think it's that simple anyway (the concept that is).

The problem with all of this is I think it's easy to go off on a wild goose chase and use up several months (perhaps even years) of time, which I am not opposed to, but I am hoping if I pay attention to some of you and pick up on the subtleties in your posts, I can save myself at least a little bit of that time.

Anyhow, all that to say, good series of posts Scotty, thanks.
  • #1,013
  • Mar 22, 2011 7:09pm Mar 22, 2011 7:09pm
Quoting Scotty B
I've looked at that thread a few times. When it comes to the term "trend" we all get confused. A trend to me is just the effect of traders taking advantage of the incentives the market is offering. If a market is giving decent returns, lot's of traders will want to be part of that market and you'll find yourself with a trend. It's quite simple really.
yes the current majority
i hate the word trend
its non existent
things change
  • #1,014
  • Mar 22, 2011 7:16pm Mar 22, 2011 7:16pm
Quoting nasir.khan
This is where i am stuck atm. All of my OF thinking is done on Fundies...
u know thers some people that are opssessed with news
but they dont make much money
if they only knew what golden nugget they were they could make a good living out of their hobby
with some economic knowldge of markets nd how things work,basics


queensland floods plus cyclone wipes out sugar crops,banana wheat
qeensland is 30% world sugar market exporter
day before q cyclone sugar up 2
cyclone past 32,day after 30,aftr 28
specculators running wild
plus on aus floods in q ,major damage,big floods
aud usd falls 200p

civil war in lybia ,gadafi attack
oil up2
war still going on up 6

japan nuclear disaster,
nikkei down 20%
australian uranium stocks down 18%
nuclear stocks down 18

nato attack lybia oil up 2
up 2 another day of attacks
  • #1,015
  • Mar 22, 2011 8:08pm Mar 22, 2011 8:08pm
heres what stop triggering looks like

i posted my analysis in an album
2 pics
http://imgur.com/a/QjkeV

plus i just checked forexlive and they are reporting of stops as well
http://www.forexlive.com/175085/all/all-about-stops

see how it makes that roundy shape
its like hit hit hit,absorb,up
too weak as no real demand is driving it up
down ,pushed,
hit stops,absorption bars
,second level,bounced off
but it always bounces off ma's
my friend yaed has a very good ma analysis
he syas the 233 ema is the mid range volatility,and it bounced off it

btw those ma are fibonnaci numbers put into moving averages
actually works fine
  • #1,016
  • Mar 22, 2011 8:22pm Mar 22, 2011 8:22pm
Quoting Monroe
By the way, what I am working on is basically trying to figure out what the market might be pricing in, and then waiting for events or news that traps them which then causes them to want to get out asap, using market orders that will drive the move causing imbalances in demand/supply.

I guess, figuring out why price is moving and waiting for opportunities to capitalize on the mispricing or for a reason and location to hop in on it, (which would also be a mispricing).

It seems the most inefficient thing about markets is that humans trade them...
I think this is something that Darkstar hinted at and you figured out. Thanks for sharing it. Hope DS isn't pissed .

This scenario could be useful for longer term or shorter term traders, depending how good we are at reading order flow.
  • #1,017
  • Mar 22, 2011 8:51pm Mar 22, 2011 8:51pm
Quoting Magic Trader
I think this is something that Darkstar hinted at and you figured out. Thanks for sharing it. Hope DS isn't pissed .

This scenario could be useful for longer term or shorter term traders, depending how good we are at reading order flow.
I don't think he would be (considering he actually wrote about it himself, a little bit more in depth as well) and it's not easy to do and requires thought, skill, knowledge and information. I am saying it very simply, and probably wrong, but I will work with this general idea. and overall, just the general idea of order flow trading.
  • #1,018
  • Mar 22, 2011 8:54pm Mar 22, 2011 8:54pm
Quoting Monroe
I don't think he would be (considering he actually wrote about it himself, a little bit more in depth as well) and it's not easy to do and requires thought, skill, knowledge and information. I am saying it very simply, and probably wrong, but I will work with this general idea. and overall, just the general idea of order flow trading.
This is the art Soros mastered.
  • #1,019
  • Mar 22, 2011 9:03pm Mar 22, 2011 9:03pm
soros is an ahole
  • #1,020
  • Mar 22, 2011 9:41pm Mar 22, 2011 9:41pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
This is the art Soros mastered.
Hey 2+2=4ex, read any good books where Soros really explains his approach analytically?

I know he trades using market structure diagrams, but I have never come across an explanation of it all from him on a technical level.
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