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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #23,561
  • Mar 21, 2011 5:18am Mar 21, 2011 5:18am
Quoting jacson101
Yes 2 legs doesn't make it 2 transactions.
Not sure I can explain any better.You can add 20 legs to it, an option so as to option it out. It still won't change anything, at some point it's 1 transaction in the spot( bricks and mortar) market.
hope it helps,
Thanks anyway. The only way that I can see two legs in a forward transaction is one selling a currency and one buying another currency, but that is true of all foreign exchange transactions. I guess I need to look more closely at how those volume figures are calculated (as I'm not sure where they count the spot transaction associated with it). My understanding of the structure of the markets is most definitely suspect.

Cheers

@ Fana The only foolproof method to quit smoking that I am aware of is to put your last cigarette out and never light another one. If you wait until you have the flu then once you have recovered your main reason for stopping has gone and your dualistic mind starts to argue with itself again. Still, whatever works for each individual is certainly not to be sniffed at, so if it worked for you then great.
  • #23,562
  • Mar 21, 2011 5:55am Mar 21, 2011 5:55am
Quoting fti
President Barack Obama said yesterday his nuclear advisers don’t expect “harmful levels” of radiation will reach the U.S.
Sure,I believe, i trusted you. Didn't I?

regards
Have you seen the movie "Inside Job"? I recommend it. Obama has the same advisors from Wallstreet as Bush had, lol. Only the President changes, not the system. Doesn't even matter Republican or Democrat.
  • #23,563
  • Mar 21, 2011 5:56am Mar 21, 2011 5:56am
Quoting Fana
I thought that menthal illness:-), but it works somehow... human psychology and everything is very interesting.

You was trying to quit smoking? So you werent quiting smoking. Only trying.

Quit 10cigarets a day first.

My quiting method : You cant start when you are healthy. First, wait for strong flu, when you are coughing and are really sick. When you need pills. You have 10days when you cant smoke. This is first step. Another is your will. Ask yourselves : I am a smoker ONLY when i smoke the cigarett. When not, i am not a smoker.
- Are you...
Fana,

Smoking is an addiction which attacks both the physical and mental. On the mental side one builds strong habits in the brain which are reinforced by the stimulus of the physical. In layman's terms smokers have their habits, smoking while drinking, or driving, after a meal etc, etc.... just having the habit is bad enough but the body is stimulated, pleasurably because of the addiction which concretes the habit in the brain.

It takes something very life changing to break that mental cycle. Anyone can do it, but the want to change has to be greater than the addiction, to over come the side effects of breaking the habit. A person doesn't become addicted on one cigarette, instead they build the dependency over a period of time. Like wise it takes time undo the dependency, in fact it takes longer to break than it does to become addicted, because you lack the pleasurable effects associated when you became addicted. Now when trying break the habit your brain experiences negative effects......... See what's going on.

I smoked for years, picked them up in my youth, tried and tried to quit, was successful in cutting back to less than a pack a day but it wasn't until I was wheeled into a hospital where I though I was suffering a heart attack that I found the will, life changing event, that was bigger than my habit. I never picked up a cigarette again. That was 10+ years ago. I no longer crave them in fact now I'm appalled at the smell. Nothing like a reformed smoker. lol. My wife quit 24+ years ago when she became pregnant with our first child, for Her the health of our baby was more than the addiction of cigarettes.

To be successful you have to rewire your brain, replacing the old habit and pleasurable stimulus with something, it takes time and is painful, but it depends on what's important, as in life we do what we really want. Imho.

fwiw,
  • #23,564
  • Edited 3:45pm Mar 21, 2011 8:09am | Edited 3:45pm
Quoting Fana
I thought that menthal illness:-), but it works somehow... human psychology and everything is very interesting.

You was trying to quit smoking? So you werent quiting smoking. Only trying.

Quit 10cigarets a day first.

My quiting method : You cant start when you are healthy. First, wait for strong flu, when you are coughing and are really sick. When you need pills. You have 10days when you cant smoke. This is first step. Another is your will. Ask yourselves : I am a smoker ONLY when i smoke the cigarett. When not, i am not a smoker.
- Are you...
"we are all smokers" ... because human nature
  • #23,565
  • Mar 22, 2011 3:04am Mar 22, 2011 3:04am
Dear All

Fti did highlight that one of his MO in Tier 1 bank is to collect option premiums to support his Fx spot activities.

Following link may gives a clue on what transpire in the Tier 1.
http://www.investopedia.com/articles.../05/022305.asp


Pip Well Guys
Philip
"Thinking Heart & Feeling Brain"
  • #23,566
  • Mar 22, 2011 5:04am Mar 22, 2011 5:04am
Kathy Lien, I think fti mentioned she was small potato with big hat. I will wait to see his reaction. Although I think that fti's MO was specific to his banking days. I doubt we have the capacity to do what he does. Good point to bring up
  • #23,567
  • Edited 6:41am Mar 22, 2011 6:14am | Edited 6:41am
Quoting Sylar
Dear All

Fti did highlight that one of his MO in Tier 1 bank is to collect option premiums to support his Fx spot activities.

Following link may gives a clue on what transpire in the Tier 1.
http://www.investopedia.com/articles.../05/022305.asp


Pip Well Guys
Philip
Hi ALL,


i read so far as...
"can also be useful in predicting movements in the underlying"
.then i stopped before real damage is done.
i feel that if the truth is to get out of the bag, is not going to be from this cat.
tier 1 cat? maybe boris, maybe?

regards

Inserted Video
  • #23,568
  • Mar 22, 2011 6:30am Mar 22, 2011 6:30am
Fti

How's your recovery process coming along?

Well guess i have to dig up more...

Am keen to learn abt how options interplay with our dance... Anyway u got offer me some pointers

Regards
Philip
"Thinking Heart & Feeling Brain"
  • #23,569
  • Mar 22, 2011 6:52am Mar 22, 2011 6:52am
Quoting Sylar
Fti

How's your recovery process coming along?

Well guess i have to dig up more...

Am keen to learn abt how options interplay with our dance... Anyway u got offer me some pointers

Regards
Philip
Sylar,Options is only a useful instrument, if you have liquid market or you have market maker quoting at fair value.
Most models are so skewed to the side of writers due to illiquidity.
So unless you can price the animal right. Then is only of value to those in the know.
the greeks are visual on the price charts already, so theres no need get ballastic about its sciences.


regards
  • #23,570
  • Mar 22, 2011 6:58am Mar 22, 2011 6:58am
Hey Fti,

This is my first post on this thread.

Glad too see you back posting and I hope your feeling better.

I was just wondering if I could ask what your opinion would be on the Euro at the moment?

I see price still far to extended for whats going on in Europe. I know that Ta doesn't mean jack however I do see the eurusd approaching a long term down trend line and I'm guessing that there will be a lot of specs with there sell orders under it...

For a large volume trader this could be a good opportunity to absorb that selling interest and liquidate into the stops above the TL.

Whats your views on this analysis?

All the best,

James.
  • #23,571
  • Mar 22, 2011 7:09am Mar 22, 2011 7:09am
Quoting fti
Sylar,Options is only a useful instrument, if you have liquid market or you have market maker quoting at fair value.
Most models are so skewed to the side of writers due to illiquidity.
So unless you can price the animal right. Then is only of value to those in the know.
the greeks are visual on the price charts already, so theres no need get ballastic about its sciences.


regards
Thanks U Sir

Guess i goin back to ballet school to practice for my Black Swan

How's your recovery Sir... U still got pretty nurse poking needle into u
"Thinking Heart & Feeling Brain"
  • #23,572
  • Mar 22, 2011 7:46am Mar 22, 2011 7:46am
Fti,

Is this similar to your old work place?

Inserted Video


Regards,

James.
  • #23,573
  • Edited 10:15am Mar 22, 2011 9:33am | Edited 10:15am
Quoting redbaron1981
Fti,

Is this similar to your old work place?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q9brMMxI1RY

Regards,

James.
yes sir, tier 1 boys, Chemical william.
Lone warrior. respects.
Ai ya 10 pips spreads, common can do better than that.
I prefer UBS william, more balls.(steel)
for him there i can deal 42/45 in 10 his choice 45 for small.
this clip is vintage, good wine though.
Walk down memory lane.





regards
  • #23,574
  • Mar 22, 2011 10:32am Mar 22, 2011 10:32am
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...NewsCollection

Disclaimer....Dance the dance....
  • #23,575
  • Edited 1:49pm Mar 22, 2011 1:26pm | Edited 1:49pm
smells like a top, behaves like a top.
high range volitility.
What do you think it is for the e and c

and for cats.
Inserted Video


regards

oops , about some cats.
  • #23,576
  • Edited 1:58pm Mar 22, 2011 1:37pm | Edited 1:58pm
I think this might be linked back to one of fti's previous comments about pairs being out of line in terms of volatility and not in terms of price?

Or maybe the key is just in the models used in pricing and the volatility?

testing resistance on E/U for hints, previous movements looks like a top, wedge may be in the process. We have good cover in the back for rescue if necessary. However, previous triple bottom with weakness is concerning.

It's lucky I was born in chinese family. Cantonese and mandarin already established. Also names william, seems it is very common name. I don't see how they can eat lunch while dealing.

EDIT 1.4209 weakness mine

Quoting fti
Hi ALL,


i read so far as...
"can also be useful in predicting movements in the underlying"
.then i stopped before real damage is done.
i feel that if the truth is to get out of the bag, is not going to be from this cat.
tier 1 cat? maybe boris, maybe?

regards

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uN1iYFxF0O8
  • #23,577
  • Mar 22, 2011 1:38pm Mar 22, 2011 1:38pm
Fti

Old habit die hard... What u doing up so late now... Should press the button to call the nurse to jab u with some sleeping solution
"Thinking Heart & Feeling Brain"
  • #23,578
  • Mar 22, 2011 1:51pm Mar 22, 2011 1:51pm
Quoting fullperson
I think this might be linked back to one of fti's previous comments about pairs being out of line in terms of volatility and not in terms of price?

Or maybe the key is just in the models used in pricing and the volatility?

testing resistance on E/U for hints, previous movements looks like a top, wedge may be in the process. We have good cover in the back for rescue if necessary. However, previous triple bottom with weakness is concerning.

It's lucky I was born in chinese family. Cantonese and mandarin already established. Also names william,...
never heard of multitasking?
all got to do is spit food at anyone not bro well.

yeap, bill, bill, bills, and bobs
oops my bad, you too.
  • #23,579
  • Edited 2:15pm Mar 22, 2011 1:53pm | Edited 2:15pm
Quoting Sylar
Fti

Old habit die hard... What u doing up so late now... Should press the button to call the nurse to jab u with some sleeping solution
why do you think i woke up so late.
jabs , jabs jabs, i feel like a chemical factory.

regards

ai ya positioned.
now gotta wait big boys after the g shifts.
Or the B of J samurais flex some muscles.
back to nappy.

bang bang
Inserted Video


now sleep better
Inserted Video
  • #23,580
  • Mar 22, 2011 2:00pm Mar 22, 2011 2:00pm
Did the Boys have plenty of FUN toying with us retail traders earlier
"Thinking Heart & Feeling Brain"
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