USDCAD trend reversal?

My TA this week (just MY bias). With all the feces last week, one never knows where you'll end up in yer trade.

I'm bearish. 50 ema has been good resistance in past ( yeah I know "past PA does not mean that future PA yadda, yadda, yadda..."). $ now>50.

STO is down as is RSI. BUT Wly STO is in O/S. (just my caveat emptor).

Mar 16 high was 50%.

The Fundafreakinmentals wrt Libya may lead to risk-off. Still have the horror in Japan. I'm leaning to a 9500 U/CAD longer term.
Tonight I got a sell stop 9795 & a buy stop 9938 (prev lo/hi) for day trade.
Libyan shituation is news that may initially be risk-off (U/Cad up).
Long term Japan's need for oil,gas,coal in order to rebuild suggest a stronger Loonie.

Scarecru...don't forget...Tuesday's budget looks like it will fail (non-confidence vote) leading to an election. The Conservatives have had ads on tv for quiet a while. But tonight I saw some Liberal ads throwing sh*t back at Harper. Looks like a spring time election. We'll see this week.

Yo DUCE: heard that Jacko Layton & NDP mps were on the f18s sent overseas.

Gonna be dropped in Libya as weapons of economic destruction.

Hope there is a non-con so's I can see & hear Lizzie Mae & the greens
screech 'bout the evils of oil & nuclear.

Sell was hit & picked 30 pips.
Beaver long was also good for a few.

How aboo: poutine if Iggy gets to be P.M. afore the Leafs win the Stanley?
You want some of that?

Keep yer stick on the ice.

Funny stuff, Scarecru. I kinda like Jack. Trouble is, he's on the wrong party. They don't like him in Toronto; he and his wife, Olivia Chow, once lived, almost for free, in government subsidized housing in this city. It was pretty sad. But at the federal level, he's become somewhat of a watchdog. But the NDP have never been taken seriously at the federal level, except when they hold the deciding votes in minority government bills. I'm not sure what's gonna happen tomorrow (budget) or Wednesday, when the Liberals keep pushing charges against a former Conservative MP (read the news). But overall, it's a joke. Oil rules our loonie and the US is still our biggest trading partner. You do the math.

DUCE: don't be be fooled by Jack'O. Had a patient who ran NDP in prev election. She lost & when she attempted to get his support on another issue ( which he was all in favour of-while she was a candidate) he did a 180.

When Purina was on police civilian board-she did her best in MHO-to garner publicity by being anti-cop.

My admiration to them be- they have taken playing the game to a whole 'nother level ( in my humble opinion).

Remember, in politics (unlike fx trading), it don't matter whether you win or lose. You just gotta get elected, stay elected for 6 yrs & collect your indexed pension(S).

That's also the game that C. Parrish is Mistysaga knows how to play.

Buy U/Cad my game tonight.

Dly: STO curl up(don't always play it except for signal cross) but RSI >50 & MacD > H20.

Then we got the fed budget & Jacko,Iggy & the news boys making headlines.

Shall look for retrace 9892

"Nothing is confirmed until it is officialy denied" Bismark (pretty sure)

With industrial production weak out of Europe. Can Europe sustain rate hikes?
We have a developing political schism and ongoing soverign debt problems in Europe

Japan facing an enormous crushing blow

Why would Trichet keep talking up the Euro as if everything is hunky dory in Euro Land?

USD strengthened yesterday, in spite of inflation fears dominating

Euro cracked some this morning.

Will see how much firepower USD bears have left as the week unfolds.

Retraced but not to 9892.

50ema(Dly) 9842 strong resistance.
Shall watch oil for direction.
Guess the iggy jacko blockheaded trio doing their song & dance to "fools on the Hill" was enthusiastically applauded.

Wkly chart has higher lows

Still bearish ( but on 4h) & intraday trades.

short @0.7380 with 45 pips SL

Reason:
Negative Divergence(1hr) + 61.8% + Gartley

Short @1.0050

Reason:
78.6% + TrendLine + Divergence(1hr) + Gartley(1hr)

Where goes the future?
Keep an eye on USD/JPY. It is a game changer for the USD overall.
When catastrophe hit Japan it was the US Navy pitching in, in the hour of need.

Loyalty is a highly regarded value in the East.
Japan may rethink its relationship to the US
The old order may come again.
Possible big time trends in the Yen pairs.

This will also affect the Euro and the GBP with the USD
More to life then interest yields.

Had a nice breakout this morning in the USD/JPY. This was not intervention by the BOJ.
It appeared a sincere move by the people of Japan

implications: Major China headache

With impasse appearing the outcome in Europe. Northern Europe remains reluctant to extend the credit card to weaker Europe. Europes debt markets will not be happy.
The current Euro/USD level 1.4200 to 1.4000 should be viewed as a potential change of trend area.

Therefore China faces a dual blow to its export via currency manipulation model.
A weaker Yen resulting from the Earthquake and a stronger USD peg for the Yuan, coming at it out of Europe.
China with an Hyper real estate market based on air rather then income levels has a real problem.

Have a nice weekend

The stronger USD as a result has higher probability at this juncture.
This of course does not preclude some assinine thing coming out of the US Congress, the White House or the Feds Bernanke

Double top in place as of this post on hourly for Euro/USD.
The turn in trend on short term has begun

one more post, then a break.

Thinking in terms of probabilities is the subject, and how does one make good decisions as a trader.

Following is a quote from Al Brooks "In general, good traders make quick subjective decisions based upon many subtle factors, and if the process feels too confusing or emotional, it is better not to place an order, .....
A trader cannot invest too much emotion in a confusing trade because he will likely be less ready to take a clear trade that may soon follow."

Moral of the story is that however one makes trade decisions, whatever the methodology inacted, wait for clarity, then act.

Looking like range week for loonie (suspect NFP calm before the storm).

Dly: up TL 03/9-24 touched by today's low.
RSI flat about 50.

Shall trade 9735 (sell stop) & 9833 (buy stop) for my break out trades

The scalping is between.

Re: the Canadian federal election-

I have been following the political views expounded by the players ( & the spin placed by the media).

I was amazed that this early in the campaign that I had made a fairly firm decision. I was leaning towards the RHINOs (the Rhinocerous Party of Canada).

They promise to "count the 1000 Islands to see if the Americans had stolen any". They want to " abolish the environment because it's too hard to keep clean & it takes up so much space." Wow, this was where I could cast my vote.

Then I read their PARTY MOTTO & realized that there was NO choice.

" We Promise to Keep None of Our Promises."

Is every party a Rhino?

Good PA today & pip gods were magnanimous

Figure next 2 days ranging whilst NFP approaches.

The Dly up TL was slightly closed below. I still am bearish.

On the Beaver: I am watching 84.89 ( prev R level)

OZ troubles me. Strah would you be having any news re: RBA interest direction:nerd:

watching83.37.

prev support as well as 50 & 200 ema

84.36 was the up TL support.

Now I have my trade parameters