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Order Flow - Achieving the mindset

  • #941
  • Mar 20, 2011 10:30pm Mar 20, 2011 10:30pm
i have a question

can the forex swaps affect the price,
like if the 60% of instituions are llong eurousd
and the swap occurs,its rolled over
can that affect the price,like make the eurousd rise

as the next contract is higher than the one of this day
(im thinking like in futures expiry dates)
  • #942
  • Mar 21, 2011 3:13am Mar 21, 2011 3:13am
It looks like there is a cluster of stop orders below the 80.50 on UJ. Any big players wanting to hop on the long usd/jpy train might find their liquidity pool there.
  • #943
  • Mar 21, 2011 3:58am Mar 21, 2011 3:58am
Quoting Scotty B
If forex can't offer investors decent returns they won't participate.
Surely this needs to be qualified as 'perceived returns' ?
He was looking for the card so high and wild hed never need to deal another
  • #944
  • Mar 21, 2011 4:18am Mar 21, 2011 4:18am
Quoting Adal
One of the problems of this thread is that there is a lot of talk, but very little information.

I don't believe that the "option barrier" talk from IFR (or any other source) is useful. But a lot of you do. Still, nobody seems to actually verify if they can be used or not.

I would have expected by now for someone to post something like this: IFR talked about 50 option barriers in the last 3 months. 20 of them were taken out, 30 were not. You know, actually quantifying them.

I did the exact same thing with some daily FOREX trade ides from...
Anyone looking for a binary outcome edge in barriers will be sorely disappointed.
  • #945
  • Mar 21, 2011 5:08am Mar 21, 2011 5:08am
Quoting triphop
Anyone looking for a binary outcome edge in barriers will be sorely disappointed.
I have only listed a basic statistic that could be computed. Of course that is not enough.
  • #946
  • Mar 21, 2011 6:36am Mar 21, 2011 6:36am
Quoting Adal
I have only listed a basic statistic that could be computed. Of course that is not enough.
It's not the variable you're testing, it's the methodology - reductionism sucks, because context is everything. You need data sure - and anyone who's not busy collecting, analysing, studying really deserves all that's coming - but as for trying to automate it; forget it.
  • #947
  • Mar 21, 2011 8:56am Mar 21, 2011 8:56am
U la la.... What a reaction on 1.4200...
If I learned anything from this thread this was a option barrier knocked out. I understand there are noumerus plays you can make with orderflow trading,but this seems like the examples we had with barriers. They were hunting for 200 level,they hit it,and then started to liqudate their long positions...
I am not 100%...still learning,but I did tried to make use of that anticipation so went short 1.3998 and was quickly in 50 pip profit... would post a chart if alowed.

But anyway...Same thing happend with 1.4050 but on a much smaller scale (although there were some talk about some barriers there), and it went right through 1.4100 and 1.4150 levels.
So I guess the catch is to find realy big ones as far as barriers is concerned?
Price now half way back again...what is going on now? What are the orderflow drivers? This is what I am struggling with...

Can you ever be 100% sure... or are we supposed to just put ourselves in a best possible position to profit from an unsure event?
Boy I am having tough time expressing myself, I hope you guys can understand me http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

Regards
  • #948
  • Mar 21, 2011 9:03am Mar 21, 2011 9:03am
my friend that eur 50 drop was portugal in crisis

http://www.forexlive.com/174643/all/...tugal-headline

Small stops were triggered below 1.4145
  • #949
  • Mar 21, 2011 9:14am Mar 21, 2011 9:14am
Quoting dragan53
my friend that eur 50 drop was portugal in crisis

http://www.forexlive.com/174643/all/...tugal-headline

Small stops were triggered below 1.4145
I don't know...the drop was 14:15-20,Trichet speak was 15:00... (I am GMT +1)
Or is my FF calendar time messed up? It sure seems fine as I double check.
  • #950
  • Mar 21, 2011 9:17am Mar 21, 2011 9:17am
i think they have some early news or something on bloomberg

i thought that trichet spoke too,but he didnt

dont know,they say that its portugal,
  • #951
  • Mar 21, 2011 9:53am Mar 21, 2011 9:53am
Hi Tilt,

I was in the same trade but can't seem to know the reason for the selldown from an orderflow perspective except that the pinbars gave a hint from at technical perspective

http://img641.imageshack.us/i/eurusd210311.jpg/

Though charts are not welcome in this thread, i hope to use it for discussion & will remove it if necessary



Quoting Tilt
U la la.... What a reaction on 1.4200...
If I learned anything from this thread this was a option barrier knocked out. I understand there are noumerus plays you can make with orderflow trading,but this seems like the examples we had with barriers. They were hunting for 200 level,they hit it,and then started to liqudate their long positions...
I am not 100%...still learning,but I did tried to make use of that anticipation so went short 1.3998 and was quickly in 50 pip profit... would post a chart if alowed.

But anyway...Same thing happend with...
  • #952
  • Mar 21, 2011 10:04am Mar 21, 2011 10:04am
Quoting sgwaverider
Hi Tilt,

I was in the same trade but can't seem to know the reason for the selldown from an orderflow perspective except that the pinbars gave a hint from at technical perspective

http://img641.imageshack.us/i/eurusd210311.jpg/

Though charts are not welcome in this thread, i hope to use it for discussion & will remove it if necessary

Well to be honest I am kind of puzzled right now myself...
I was under the impresion that hunt for a option barrier is being ni play... but I guess at the same time the news about possible portugal bailout has been released. Coincidance? I don't belive that!
So I am still investigating,trying to make sense of it all...

I think you will get a better response from more knowledgabe traders here,I am just learnig myself.

regards
  • #953
  • Mar 21, 2011 10:50am Mar 21, 2011 10:50am
Quoting sgwaverider
Hi Tilt,

I was in the same trade but can't seem to know the reason for the selldown from an orderflow perspective except that the pinbars gave a hint from at technical perspective

http://img641.imageshack.us/i/eurusd210311.jpg/

Though charts are not welcome in this thread, i hope to use it for discussion & will remove it if necessary
I just think it's a fallacy trying to give an explanation for every price movement cause you can associate to every movement as many reasons as the ticks numbers from that price movement. If you do a search you will find as many opinion as the writers of them

Of course there is always a reason for fluctuations, but the price does not concern itself with the why and wherefore. You must act into the NOW moment. The reason for price movement may not be known for two or three days, or weeks, or months, the reason can wait, but your business not.

No one can have adequate reasons for buying and selling or sufficient knowledge to play every price movement day in day out.

all the best!
  • #954
  • Mar 21, 2011 11:04am Mar 21, 2011 11:04am
imo... there were substantial long positions accumulated on the way up to 1.42, most of which were not "unloaded" when the number was breached. I think they were looking for at least 1.4205-10. The Portugal news may have brought in some sellers, and made the longs wary, as they still had large positions. At 13:30 GMT there was the MBS news. With this apparently dollar-positive news, besides any new sellers, some of the more nervous longs will have decided to dump at the current market price, especially positions recently accumulated at higher prices when taking out 1.42. This depressed price, and as the other longs saw price quickly falling, more and more raced to exit, causing that fast drop.
  • #955
  • Mar 21, 2011 11:48am Mar 21, 2011 11:48am
I think its more important to be looking at where sentiment differs from news.

E.g Some negative news coming out about from Portugal and the market being to long for the new outlook...
  • #956
  • Mar 21, 2011 11:55am Mar 21, 2011 11:55am
Quoting redbaron1981
I think its more important to be looking at where sentiment differs from news.

E.g Some negative news coming out about from Portugal and the market being to long for the new outlook...
This might be happening right now,don't you think?
I mean...what changed? We had the news about portugal,eather mkt did not took it to seriusly yet,or big money want to go higher to sell. Another bad news,maybe more confirming,could lead to a EU sell off.
IMO...
  • #957
  • Mar 21, 2011 12:07pm Mar 21, 2011 12:07pm
Tilt,

Have a read of this DS post.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=928

But yes I agree.

James
  • #958
  • Mar 21, 2011 12:13pm Mar 21, 2011 12:13pm
Quoting redbaron1981
Tilt,

Have a read of this DS post.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=928

But yes I agree.

James
Thanks James...http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
  • #959
  • Mar 21, 2011 12:21pm Mar 21, 2011 12:21pm
Looking at the Eurusd daily first of all its far too long for whats going on in Europe at the moment.

I just think that with all the unrest going on at the moment in Europe the market is a little illiquid with indecision to be sinking some nice size orders in.

If I wanted to go short with serious money I'd be looking at breaking that Upper trend line and fooling the market into thinking were still in an uptrend, then Sell into all that Buying interest when the TL is broken and away we go!

I'm may be wrong though.
  • #960
  • Mar 21, 2011 12:22pm Mar 21, 2011 12:22pm
Quoting Monroe
more on options and spot fx.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles.../05/022305.asp

The range itself could be caused by hedging.. you can see the footprints on the chart.
Awesome advice as usual. For everyone else, here's a great piece on Barrier Options and DNTs in particular.

http://www.forexlive.com/171870/all/...efore-use-them
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