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Price is everything

  • #13,021
  • Mar 19, 2011 7:13pm Mar 19, 2011 7:13pm
Quoting tjfxtrader
Red:

You posted:

"Rising to find supply, spiking south is doing several things @ the same time. Prices are finding small pockets of demand and testing them to rise to supply. So, as its spiking south its also consuming those small pockets of demand therefore the path south is begin cleared of demand @ the same time!"

What does "testing them to rise to supply" mean? I understood everything else you posted.

Thank you.
You need to seriously look at those charts.

Small pockets of demand is the reason those downwicks are created, price moves down to fill those demandpockets, as soon as they are filled prices are free to move upwards towards supply.
  • #13,022
  • Mar 19, 2011 7:15pm Mar 19, 2011 7:15pm
Quoting Orbital
You need to seriously look at those charts.

Small pockets of demand is the reason those downwicks are created, price moves down to fill those demandpockets, as soon as they are filled prices are free to move upwards towards supply.
The word "testing" is confusing to me. Red should be able to clear this up.
  • #13,023
  • Edited 7:32pm Mar 19, 2011 7:15pm | Edited 7:32pm
interesting place, resistance + trendline

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and daily usdcad
http://img145.imageshack.us/img145/6071/usdcadl.gif
  • #13,024
  • Mar 19, 2011 7:28pm Mar 19, 2011 7:28pm
Just like any other test. In order for price to advance, buyers have to exceed sellers. When the price drops it is immediately pushed back up by areas of BUYERS until it reaches that point at which SELLERS overcome them. That is where the wicks come from, the retreat in price was picked up by those "pockets". This eliminates those areas of buyers when price eventually does reach the top. ALlowing it to plummet into my bank account. And eventually into my Grocery Stores liquor department cash register. Hope that cleared something up.
  • #13,025
  • Mar 19, 2011 7:37pm Mar 19, 2011 7:37pm
Quoting HoyPip
ALlowing it to plummet into my bank account. And eventually into my Grocery Stores liquor department cash register. Hope that cleared something up.
  • #13,026
  • Mar 20, 2011 12:22am Mar 20, 2011 12:22am
Quoting Orbital
It basically means if i understand michael correctly and im pretty sure i do since our trading styles are similiar. Its that he is taking a higher risk by not waiting for PA to confirm and taking the second bounce after a big engulfing candle into either supply or demand. Ill show you a couple of pictures about this later.
Okay, thanks. Would love to see the charts.

So I think basically I might be doing the same thing sometimes. If trading a 30 or 15 min chart - waiting for confirmation... I might switch to a 5 or 3 min chart to look for confirmation, then place the trade even though my 30 or 15 minute chart is not giving me a signal yet.

Thanks again Red, Orbital and others. This is a badass no bullshit thread. Real traders here.
  • #13,027
  • Mar 20, 2011 1:19am Mar 20, 2011 1:19am
Not going to Lie, 5m and below are going to be good for PA and getting early entries, but a HUGE mistake I have made was to use the lower TF Supply and Demand zones. I cant speak for the other pros here but 1HR/4HR Supply and Demand are the REAL zones, and while can take a long time to reach/leave have the most relevance. There is a freaking demand zone every 15 pips on the 1m......
  • #13,028
  • Mar 20, 2011 5:37am Mar 20, 2011 5:37am
Quoting tjfxtrader
Red:

You posted:

"Rising to find supply, spiking south is doing several things @ the same time. Prices are finding small pockets of demand and testing them to rise to supply. So, as its spiking south its also consuming those small pockets of demand therefore the path south is begin cleared of demand @ the same time!"

What does "testing them to rise to supply" mean? I understood everything else you posted.

Thank you.


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  • #13,029
  • Edited 8:34am Mar 20, 2011 8:17am | Edited 8:34am
Quoting Venice
At times, it seems like the worlds events can be predicated based off of chart readings, and not the other way around. It's freaky when they coincide right when the technicals.

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what you have stated here is profound but charts suggest that its holds true. Over the last few weeks, l have discussed this very subject in depth with another senior trader - jlako, who is the finest geometry, wave and harmonics trader l have ever come across and we worked alongside eachother for many years


......... @ the beginning of the week he also discovered something else which completely dumb struck us both. When he plotted fib time across his charting method what he found was, not only did prices create geometry, for example ab - cd etc but PRICES ACTUALLY TAKE A CERTAIN TIME TO DO IT TOO ........... WTFX. so not only is there precise price geometry but time geometry coupled to it. As an analogy - SPACE TIME CONCEPT, space and time are woven together into a fabric of our existance


so often l entered trades based on compression, because compression is truly a leading indicator - its clearing demand or supply to turn before the zone is reached .......... therefore its already told us its going to turn - otherwise it wouldn't compress itself - this implies PRICES THINK AHEAD OF TIME - no other explanation can be given for this type of PA, or atleast no trader has ever been able to come to any other conclusion with charting to prove it otherwise


l recently entered a UJ trade based on compression, not knowning news was just round the corner as l pay no fcuking attention to that BS, and the bitch dropped like a hot brick - ahhhh, but compression was there BEFORE THE NEWS ...........


the chart above - l have posted a few times in the past - the supply cluster on the left, when tested, amazingly some news or world event causes the dollar to weaken, the only conclusion l can come to is the same as yours. It does seem like the charts have the future GHOSTED IN ........ OR ALREADY MAPPED IN AHEAD OF CURRENT TIME



not one for chats but it truly is profound how world events occur to match the zones



........ LET IT OPEN
  • #13,030
  • Mar 20, 2011 9:21am Mar 20, 2011 9:21am
Quoting redsword11
Attachment



what you have stated here is profound but charts suggest that its holds true. Over the last few weeks, l have discussed this very subject in depth with another senior trader - jlako, who is the finest geometry, wave and harmonics trader l have ever come across and we worked alongside eachother for many years


......... @ the beginning of the week he also discovered something else which completely dumb struck us both. When he plotted fib time across his charting method what he found was, not only did prices create geometry,...


Attached Image
  • #13,031
  • Mar 20, 2011 9:45am Mar 20, 2011 9:45am
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http://i55.tinypic.com/o8uwio.jpg

Red, thanks for taking the time to answer my question. But you chart demand zones don't seem to agree with your statement:

"firstly, we look left and notice a supply zone - supply zone identifed simply by noticing prices fell hard from there before, therefore sellers exceed buyers. Now we wait for PRICE ARRIVAL"

If I am not mistaken, you would define a demand zone as identified simply by noticing price advanced hard from there before, therefore buyers exceed sellers.

The highest demand zone, as indicated on your chart, doesn't seem to fit that description. In fact, if you look at the largest bull bars, on the left, and see where price returned to, on the right, that is the "real" demand zone on the chart.

Is there more to this? Am I mistaken in my interpretation of demand zone?

Anxiously awaiting your reply.
  • #13,032
  • Mar 20, 2011 9:51am Mar 20, 2011 9:51am
Quoting tjfxtrader
Attachment

Red, thanks for taking the time to answer my question....


l am done with this - this may be harsh, but if you can't understand all those examples and detailed explanations l have given, there is nothing l can add to this and you need to re think your view on price


......... moreover - l post not just entries but full explanations to entries and still l get questioned - l am done with answering questions, all questions are to be directed to the game faced traders within our group, not me
  • #13,033
  • Mar 20, 2011 9:52am Mar 20, 2011 9:52am
Exactly like the giant daily bearish triangle on USD/JPY... Just ready to complete before the events we know... That was crazy indeed.

Quoting redsword11
Attachment



what you have stated here is profound but charts suggest that its holds true. Over the last few weeks, l have discussed this very subject in depth with another senior trader - jlako, who is the finest geometry, wave and harmonics trader l have ever come across and we worked alongside eachother for many years


......... @ the beginning of the week he also discovered something else which completely dumb struck us both. When he plotted fib time across his charting method what he found was, not only did prices create geometry,...
Hello.
  • #13,034
  • Mar 20, 2011 9:58am Mar 20, 2011 9:58am
EURCHF daily. In a potential reversal zone. Beware of the double bottom possibility.
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Hello.
  • #13,035
  • Mar 20, 2011 10:28am Mar 20, 2011 10:28am
This not this hard, really. Did you take the time to do THIS ? I mean, it's so obvious, with all we all have posted, Sam Seiden's and Steve Misic's videos, all the articles, you really need to make the effort... This is the simplest way to trade, just needs some observation.

This can also answer a question about supply and demand zones on bigger or smaller timeframes. Of course you'll find more zones on smaller time frames. So see when they match zones from higher time frames. Or simply scalp the hell out of them.

Good trading all !

EDIT : FYI, you are looking at the same exact charts of CADCHF here obviously.

Quoting tjfxtrader
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http://i55.tinypic.com/o8uwio.jpg

Red, thanks for taking the time to answer my question....
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Hello.
  • #13,036
  • Mar 20, 2011 10:41am Mar 20, 2011 10:41am
Quoting emene
This not this hard, really. Did you take the time to do THIS ? I mean, it's so obvious, with all we all have posted, Sam Seiden's and Steve Misic's videos, all the articles, you really need to make the effort... This is the simplest way to trade, just needs some observation.

This can also answer a question about supply and demand zones on bigger or smaller timeframes. Of course you'll find more zones on smaller time frames. So see when they match zones from higher time frames. Or simply scalp the hell out of them.

Good trading all !

EDIT : FYI,...
Yes, I have taken the time to read and watch. My question was for clarification. It was not a challenge to Red's expertise.
  • #13,037
  • Mar 20, 2011 10:49am Mar 20, 2011 10:49am
Quoting tjfxtrader
Attachment

http://i55.tinypic.com/o8uwio.jpg

Red, thanks for taking the time to answer my question....
Trader. There are many demand and supply zones all over the chart. You need to pick out the significant ones. Price is never guaranteed to hold at a demand zone. But you will almost always get a bounce. Sometimes those bounces turn into reversals, other times they don't.

This is why trading is crucial to constantly react to price action and let it lead the way. It tells you what it wants to do (most of the time). You simply just follow.

For my trading style, I actually have a less risky setup. I wait for price to bounce at supply demand level, and then break the current resistance level.

So if price is currently bearish, I look to the next demand level, and as long as I am not feeling to frisky, I then wait for price to break back out of the demand level. (Resistance turned to support). On the restest, this is when the order goes in ... I run an average win to lose streak of around 10-15 wins per 1 loss.

It's really extremely easy... you just have to study the charts and recognize what price does. Over, and over, and over again.

Some of the safest trades are the resistance turned to support retest trades.

I have seen trades break out of my levels up to +30-50 pips, only to watch it slam right back down to the intial break out point (enter order here), just to watch it go back and completely engulf the retest move and then turn into a 70-100 pip trade in a matter of a half an hour.

Markets are so basic and silly... there is no reason anyone can't make it... it just takes time. Lots of studying and understanding of what price actually is.

Supply and Demand. When one over comes the other we get movement.

When I am looking at charts, I literally 'feel' a struggle going on with the charts. When compression is happening, lets say upwards and compression points to the south, it literally feels like bulls are throwing every thing they got to get the chart moved up. Then what happens? Bulls run out of juice (Ergo we just switched from demand > supply). But now what? all the bulls have already got there positions in, which means we have just eaten up any demand for a bounce. Price then inevitably falls off of a cliff. The shorts are selling more, and as the bulls realize they f'ed up, they start covering which increases the supply even more.

Another pattern I absolutely love trading are triangles (or red sees them more as consumption).

Let's say we have a bull ascending triangle. Rising lower trend line with a flat ceiling. Can you tell me what is going on here with supply and demand? I certainly can.

Bulls are buying and buying and then we get heavy sellers at this ceiling level. What is the reason for the rising trend line in the triangle? Well, the supply at the ceiling is running out of juice to push price down as each iteration comes along. Bulls answer back with each push down with even more demand putting it back to the ceiling when all of a sudden, guess what. BOOM. Price blows out as supply can no longer contain it. And again, the strong breakout comes from the bears going 'oh shit, we f'ed up. Time to cover.

These things happen over, and over, and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over again. Just have to watch and learn.
  • #13,038
  • Mar 20, 2011 11:05am Mar 20, 2011 11:05am
Quoting redsword11
what you have stated here is profound but charts suggest that its holds true. Over the last few weeks, l have discussed this very subject in depth with another senior trader - jlako, who is the finest geometry, wave and harmonics trader l have ever come across and we worked alongside eachother for many years


......... @ the beginning of the week he also discovered something else which completely dumb struck us both. When he plotted fib time across his charting method what he found was, not only did prices create geometry, for example ab - cd...
Very fascinating. I always thought market is much more than just bunch of candles. There is some depth in it indeed.
  • #13,039
  • Mar 20, 2011 11:11am Mar 20, 2011 11:11am
Quoting emene
EURCHF daily. In a potential reversal zone. Beware of the double bottom possibility.
hello michael.same thought.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...8&postcount=53
Gold Expedition Return This Year: -16.4%
  • #13,040
  • Mar 20, 2011 1:18pm Mar 20, 2011 1:18pm
Quoting budak baru
hello michael.same thought.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...8&postcount=53


http://gicharts.blogspot.com/2011/03...ar-eurchf.html
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