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  • #861
  • Mar 18, 2011 3:35pm Mar 18, 2011 3:35pm
Quoting seagreen
I don't think there's a straight answer to your question. Just watch these option plays for some time and you'll get a feel for your entry. I'm not an option hunter myself so I can't comment on this. BTW, where did you get the info about 1.4125 option? I only saw 1.41 and 1.415. I guess the option calendar on IFR is for vanilla options right?
yea those are vanillas unless otherwise noted.

are you a knife catcher?
  • #862
  • Mar 18, 2011 3:41pm Mar 18, 2011 3:41pm
Quoting seagreen
I don't think there's a straight answer to your question. Just watch these option plays for some time and you'll get a feel for your entry. I'm not an option hunter myself so I can't comment on this.
Thanks seagreen, sounds like something I just need more experience with, and eventually I will get a "feel" for it.

Quoting seagreen
BTW, where did you get the info about 1.4125 option? I only saw 1.41 and 1.415. I guess the option calendar on IFR is for vanilla options right?
Yeah, option calendar is almost always vanilla options only. Sometimes they'll have exotic options on there (usually marked with "DIG", "KO", or something like that). IFR also reports on exotic option barriers nearby, but in other posts, not option calendar. Also, forexlive has that information sometimes. The 4125 that I saw was supposedly a 1.3525/1.4125 DNT set to expire in early April, but I can't remember where I got the information from on that specific one (either IFR or forexlive).
  • #863
  • Mar 18, 2011 3:48pm Mar 18, 2011 3:48pm
Quoting Monroe
yea those are vanillas unless otherwise noted.

are you a knife catcher?
Not anymore, too many finger cuts
  • #864
  • Mar 18, 2011 3:54pm Mar 18, 2011 3:54pm
Thanks for clarification, relyt and Monroe. I'm thinking if that info on plain vanilla options could also be exploited. For example, when a writer sells a put or call option he needs to hedge it on spot and carry this position up until the expiry. I understand this position has to be adjusted as the rate changes and it also needs to be liquidated at the time of expiration. Any ideas?
  • #865
  • Mar 18, 2011 4:03pm Mar 18, 2011 4:03pm
Quoting seagreen
Thanks for clarification, relyt and Monroe. I'm thinking if that info on plain vanilla options could also be exploited. For example, when a writer sells a put or call option he needs to hedge it on spot and carry this position up until the expiry. I understand this position has to be adjusted as the rate changes and it also needs to be liquidated at the time of expiration. Any ideas?
To be honest, I'm not the right person to ask about that. I've been dedicating pretty much all of my time to the exotic option levels and, as you can see, I'm still a novice when it comes to that.

If I have any thoughts about your question, I'll let you know, but maybe some of the guys who have been doing this a little longer can chime in.
  • #866
  • Mar 18, 2011 4:10pm Mar 18, 2011 4:10pm
There exists an indirect expiration calender for barriers.
It goes from Barclays to UBS and much more banks.
  • #867
  • Mar 18, 2011 6:22pm Mar 18, 2011 6:22pm
whats PA?

price action?
  • #868
  • Edited Mar 19, 2011 12:33am Mar 18, 2011 6:25pm | Edited Mar 19, 2011 12:33am
options

http://forexformation.com/exotic-financial-options/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Option_style

http://www.scribd.com/doc/5273842/BLOOMBERG-Derivatives

http://www.optionsclearing.com/compo...s/xcal2011.pdf

http://www.anz.com/documents/FXOnlin...erm2edited.pdf

http://www.afma.com.au/afmawr/_asset...onventions.pdf
  • #869
  • Mar 18, 2011 7:12pm Mar 18, 2011 7:12pm
Quoting dragan53
whats PA?

price action?
Yessir
  • #870
  • Mar 18, 2011 10:06pm Mar 18, 2011 10:06pm
Quoting Monroe
Carnegie... what's up bro... good thread you have here... just trying to keep it moving.

btw, there was just one chick that popped in here the other day actually... a DS fan... but triger dude scared her off... lol jk triger....
He didn't scare me off. lol. I've just been swamped with so much work I haven't had the time to check back on what was going on here.

Thank you Triger for your kind words.

I've been reading Forex Factory for over two years, and I just recently decided to create an account. I will post when I feel I can add something meaningful to the topic at hand.
  • #871
  • Edited Mar 19, 2011 12:09am Mar 18, 2011 11:45pm | Edited Mar 19, 2011 12:09am
http://finance.google.com/group/goog...+trading&pli=1

its the war of the geeks

exotic options
http://fliiby.com/file/224130/wtmbt0oh7x.html
http://www.bsu.edu/web/math/exchange/02-02/casey.pdf

derivatives

http://fliiby.com/file/297869/dm6uqjkuuf.html
  • #872
  • Mar 19, 2011 12:38am Mar 19, 2011 12:38am
couldnt upload all of this on ff,so i uploaded to fileserve

File name: 05_opacity_and_exclusivity_in_electronic_securities_trading_the_case_of_dark_pools.pdf File size: 432.07 KB
File name: 0471232327.pdf File size: 2.99 MB
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File name: a-market-microstructure-analysis-of-foreign-exchange-intervention.pdf File size: 777.45 KB
File name: appendix2-3.pdf File size: 189.98 KB
File name: do0501e.pdf File size: 698.36 KB
File name: ITpro.pdf File size: 1.18 MB
File name: market_mechanics (1).pdf File size: 1.15 MB
File name: predatory_trading.pdf File size: 238.81 KB
File name: Osler2008.pdf File size: 662.41 KB
File name: S89.pdf File size: 415.47 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf 05_opacity_and_exclusivity_in_electronic_securities_trading_the_case_of_dark_pools.pdf   432 KB | 550 downloads
  • #873
  • Mar 19, 2011 5:38am Mar 19, 2011 5:38am
I think the biggest mistake 'traders' make is that they believe the markets are more predictable than they really are. There are times when they probably are, like around news events but otherwise they are much more random than most think (assuming you don't have any insider information of course). I'm surprised DS hasn't mentioned this in the first chapter of his book.

The human brain (and those of most animals no doubt) has evolved to see patterns in all data no matter which of the senses it arrives through. But often 'real' patterns don't exist. Its been in our interest of survival to believe the patterns are there and our beliefs have done us proud over the millenia by allowing us to avoid the moving shapes of predators and so on. We're programmed very strongly and even when we use our intellect we have to fight this inbuilt system in order to see what's really there rather than what we want to see. Its a very strong effect to oversome and many are never able to.
He was looking for the card so high and wild hed never need to deal another
  • #874
  • Mar 19, 2011 7:03am Mar 19, 2011 7:03am
Quoting dr_who
I think the biggest mistake 'traders' make is that they believe the markets are more predictable than they really are. There are times when they probably are, like around news events but otherwise they are much more random than most think (assuming you don't have any insider information of course). I'm surprised DS hasn't mentioned this in the first chapter of his book.
Maybe DS didn't include it in the first chapter of his book, because the real truth is that the markets ARE predictable?

Yes I am sure people are making money 'like around news events' and the people with inside information.

But there are like a thousand more potential strategies, mispricings, and inefficiencies to capitalize on. Just because some people haven't found them yet, or are not yet open to certain possibilities, doesn't mean they do not exist.
Private message me for a link to my order flow website.
  • #875
  • Mar 19, 2011 7:32am Mar 19, 2011 7:32am
Quoting grkfx
Maybe DS didn't include it in the first chapter of his book, because the real truth is that the markets ARE predictable?

Yes I am sure people are making money 'like around news events' and the people with inside information.

But there are like a thousand more potential strategies, mispricings, and inefficiencies to capitalize on. Just because some people haven't found them yet, or are not yet open to certain possibilities, doesn't mean they do not exist.
Am I missing something, did darkstar post the first chapter? I thought it was the introduction. If the first chapter is posted I will have to find out why I am unable to view it.
  • #876
  • Mar 19, 2011 8:25am Mar 19, 2011 8:25am
Quoting Louie
Am I missing something, did darkstar post the first chapter? I thought it was the introduction. If the first chapter is posted I will have to find out why I am unable to view it.
All I've seen is the Intro, Louie. I think that's what they're referring to.
  • #877
  • Mar 19, 2011 10:58am Mar 19, 2011 10:58am
This might be a stupid question, but I'll ask it anyway because I'm not too proud to ask.

Let's say (hypothetically) that last week before the USD/JPY made its huge drop/rebound, that I had a sell order below the market where I knew there were a lot of stops. For the sake of this example, let's say that the order was at 78.50 and the SL was only 5 pips (with the idea that if price got to 78.50, it would be a stop-cascade and there would basically be no drawdown). Well, when I was watching the whole thing play out, Oanda's spread was up to 30 pips, so when the order was triggered at 78.50, would the order have immediately been stopped out since the spread was so large? Even though you could have made 150+ pips would it have been stopped out right away because of the spread?

I should probably know the answer to this, but I don't want to assume I do know the answer and then find out I was wrong later.

Thanks.
  • #878
  • Mar 19, 2011 11:39am Mar 19, 2011 11:39am
Quoting eurotrash
You can try it now on Oanda demo with their wide weekend spreads. A 5 pip SL buy would be placed 5 pips above the current ask. Therefore in your scenario, the actual amount of pips you stand to lose, not accounting for possible slippage, is: spread (variable, currently 30) + 5 pips. You would have been stopped out if the ask reached 78.85, which is 5 pips above the current ask (the bid is at 78.50, which allowed you to sell at that price).
Nice. Good idea eurotrash! Thanks for the reply.
  • #879
  • Mar 19, 2011 11:42am Mar 19, 2011 11:42am
Quoting Louie
Now getting back to my question from the other thread? Does anyone know what TC stands for on the options maturity calander? I have not been able to find what this means.

Quoting relyt
I've been told it means "transferable contract". Not sure what significance, if any, it has for us, though.
Louie, I wanted to go back to this old post because I've since heard that "TC" means "Tokyo cut". The "transferable contract" explanation came from someone at Oanda and the "Tokyo cut" answer came from IFR, so I would be inclined to believe the latter, "Tokyo cut".
  • #880
  • Mar 19, 2011 11:42am Mar 19, 2011 11:42am
Quoting grkfx
Maybe DS didn't include it in the first chapter of his book, because the real truth is that the markets ARE predictable?
They probably are at certain moments and particularly if you have insider info.

But I think you're probably deluding yourself if you think that they are predictable for the majority of the time.

You only have to see how poorly, even experienced traders do worldwide.

Read 'Fooled by randomness' by Taleb.

However, please feel free to believe whatever you want. The last thing I want to do is spoil your party. If it works for you then I'm in no position to get you to change your attitude.
He was looking for the card so high and wild hed never need to deal another
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